Três alternativas estocásticas para modelar morbimortalidade por doenças respiratórias e cardiovasculares via variáveis atmosféricas

Climate and air pollution, among others, are responsible factors for increase of health vulnerability of the populations that live in urban centers. Climate changes combined with high concentrations of atmospheric pollutants are usually associated with respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. In this sense, the main objective of this research is to model in different ways the climate and health relation, specifically for the children and elderly population which live in São Paulo. Therefore, data of meteorological variables, air pollutants, hospitalizations and deaths from respiratory and cardiovascular diseases a in 11-year period (2000-2010) were used. By using modeling via generalized estimating equations, the relative risk was obtained. By dynamic regression, it was possible to predict the number of deaths through the atmospheric variables and the betabinomial-poisson model was able to estimate the number of deaths and simulate scenarios. The results showed that the risk of hospitalizations due to asthma increases approximately twice for children exposed to high concentrations of particulate matter than children who are not exposed. The risk of death by acute myocardial infarction in elderly increase in 3%, 6%, 4% and 9% due to high concentrations CO, SO2, O3 and PM10, respectively. Regarding the dynamic regression modeling, the results showed that deaths by respiratory diseases can be predicted consistently. The beta-binomial-poisson model was able to reproduce an average number of deaths by heart insufficiency. In the region of Santo Amaro the observed number was 2.462 and the simulated was 2.508, in the Sé region 4.308 were observed and 4.426 simulated, which allowed for the generation of scenarios that may be used as a parameter for decision. Making with these results, it is possible to contribute for methodologies that can improve the understanding of the relation between climate and health and proved support to managers in environmental planning and public health policies.

Estudo estatístico sobre eventos de precipitação intensa no nordeste do Brasil

The Northeast of Brazil (NEB) shows high climate variability, ranging from semiarid regions to a rainy regions. According to the latest report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the NEB is highly susceptible to climate change, and also heavy rainfall events (HRE). However, few climatology studies about these episodes were performed, thus the objective main research is to compute the climatology and trend of the episodes number and the daily rainfall rate associated with HRE in the NEB and its climatologically homogeneous sub regions; relate them to the weak rainfall events and normal rainfall events. The daily rainfall data of the hydrometeorological network managed by the Agência Nacional de Águas, from 1972 to 2002. For selection of rainfall events used the technique of quantiles and the trend was identified using the Mann-Kendall test. The sub regions were obtained by cluster analysis, using as similarity measure the Euclidean distance and Ward agglomerative hierarchical method. The results show that the seasonality of the NEB is being intensified, i.e., the dry season is becoming drier and wet season getting wet. The El Niño and La Niña influence more on the amount of events regarding the intensity, but the sub-regions this influence is less noticeable. Using daily data reanalysis ERAInterim fields of anomalies of the composites of meteorological variables were calculated for the coast of the NEB, to characterize the synoptic environment. The Upper-level cyclonic vortex and the South atlantic convergene zone were identified as the main weather systems responsible for training of EPI on the coastland

Análise da variabilidade climática sobre a produtividade da soja no município de Bom Jesus (PI)

The climate is still main responsible for the variations soybean productivity (Glycine max (L.) Merrill), exerting a limiting action on these agricultural systems. The bomjesuense cerrado, this culture has proved, over the years, an increase of cultivated areas, however, productivity does not keep the same pace, going through periods of oscillations. Thus, although the crop is added to high technology, culture has great vulnerability to climatic adversities. Thus, the present study aims to analyze possible trends in meteorological variables, which can influence the soybean yield in Bom Jesus. For this purpose, different datasets were used, as follows: i) two periods of daily data (1984-2014 and 1974-2014), both obtained from the National Meteorological Institute (INMET); ii) climate normals from 1961-1990 as defined by INMET; iii) local agricultural production data of soybean-year (1997/1998 to 2012/2013) obtained from the Municipal Agricultural Production (PAM) dataset, which is management by Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). The analysis procedures included calculations of climate normals for 1984 to 2014 period and some statistical applications, as follows: i) the Wilcoxon test, used to evaluate differences between climate normals (1961 to 1990 and 1984 to 2014); ii) the Mann-Kendall nonparametric test, in order to analyze the linear trend of agrometeorological variables (rainfall, maximum temperature, minimum temperature and diurnal range of temperature; iii) cluster analysis by Ward method and the Spearman correlation test (rs) to identify the relationship between agrometeorological variable and soybean annual productivity. We adopted a statistical significance level of 5%. The results indicate changes in seasonality of the 1984-2014 climatology with respect to past climatology for all variables analyzed, except for insolation and precipitation. However, the monthly analysis of precipitation indicate negative trend during October and positive trend in December, causing a delay in start of rainy season. If this trend is persistent this result must be considered in futures definitions of the soybean crop sowing date over the region studied. With Mann-Kendall test was possible to identify positive trends with statistical significance in maximum temperature for all month forming part of soybean cycle (from November to April), which in turn tends to cause adverse effects on crop physiology, and consequently impacts on the final yield. Was identified a significant positive correlation between soybean yield and precipitation observed in March, thus precipitation deficit in this month is harmful to the soybean crop development. No statistically significant correlation was identified among maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and DTR with annual soybean productivity due these range of meteorological variables are not limiting factors in the final soybean yield in Bom Jesus (PI). It is expected that this study will contribute to propose planning strategies considering the role of climate variability on soybean crop final yield.

Análise bioclimática e investigação do conforto térmico em ambientes externos: uma experiência no bairro de Petrópolis em Natal/RN

This study was intended to investigate how the urban form has been influencing the changes in the climate of the city and make a correlation between the climate and the thermal sensation of the users of open spaces. The research was developed in the district of Petrópolis in Natal/ RN whose occupation has been almost consolidated. Among other reasons, this district was selected because it was planned considering the environmental aspects of comfort. The methodologies used are based on KATZSCHNER (1997) and OLIVEIRA (1988) studies, which suggest the drawing and analysis of maps of the area under study, including topography, height of the buildings, land use, green areas, and types of soil pavement, as well as measurement of the environmental variables: air temperature, relative humidity, direction and wind speed for a comparative study. As part of this, study local users of the district were interviewed about their thermal sensations in open spaces. For the statistical analysis, data was collected at 10 distinct points characterized by BUSTOS ROMERO (2002), being 8 within the district and 2 at different places (outside the district), at climatologic stations, in 3 periods (August/2000, January/2002 and June/2002), for 4 consecutive days for each measurement (from Sunday to Wednesday) at the time of lower and higher temperatures in the city, 6:00 am and 1:00 pm, respectively. At the same time interviews were carried out with users of the open spaces in the area, totaling 171 valid formularies. The urban form showed a rather leveled topography, great diversity of land use and height of the buildings, with the existence of an area mostly occupied with high buildings, very little green area and soil practically impermeable. The statistical analysis showed high temperature and humidity levels. The wind direction is predominantly Southeast with extremely variable speeds. When the data from this district is compared with the data from other areas in the city and its outskirt, it was observed that this district is hotter and less ventilated than the others; besides, most users said that they felt uncomfortable in the local environmental conditions. The results of the analysis generated a zoning for the district with recommendations for soil occupation. The profile of the user was defined regarding the thermal comfort, as well as some discussion about the comfort parameters, including the proposal of limiting areas of temperature and humidity for the thermal comfort in the open spaces

Influência de variáveis arquitetônicas no desempenho energético de hotéis no clima quente e úmido da cidade de Natal/RN

This master thesis aims to assess the influence of the design decisions on the energy building performance of hotels. The research is based on the integration of field study and computer simulation. Firstly, a detailed field study is carried out to identify the characteristics of hotels in Natal, Rio Grande do Norte. The items assessed are occupancies, light and equipment densities, types of air conditioning, total and monthly energy consumption, among others. A second and more comprehensive field study is carried out to identify the range of occurrence of architectural variables, with a larger number of buildings. A base case is modelled in VisualDOE, based on the first field study. Then, a first set of simulations are run to explore the sensitivity of the variables on the energy consumption. The results analyses were the base of a second set of simulations, which combined the most influential variables. The results of 384 models were assessed, and the impacts of design decisions were quantified. The study discusses tendencies and recommendations, as well as the methods advantages and disadvantages

Efeito das variáveis laboratoriais protéticas na adesão da porcelana com ligas de níquel-cromo

The metalceramic crowns are usually used in dentistry because they provide a resistant structure due to its metallic base and its aesthetics from the porcelain that recovers this structure. To manufacture these crowns, a series of stages should be accomplished in the prosthetic laboratories, and many variables can influence its success. Changes in these variables cause alterations in the metallic alloy and in the porcelain, so, as consequence, in the adhesion between them. The composition of the metal alloy can be modified by recasting alloys, a common practice in some prosthetic laboratories. The aim of this paper is to make a systematic study investigating metalceramic crowns as well as analyzing the effect of recasting Ni-Cr alloys. Another variable which can influence the mechanism of metalceramic union is the temperature used in firing porcelain procedure. Each porcelain has to be fired in a fixed temperature which is determined by the manufacturer and its change can cause serious damages. This research simulate situations that may occur on laboratory procedures and observe their consequences in the quality of the metalceramic union. A scanning eletron microscopy and an optic microscopy were accomplish to analyse the metal-ceramic interface. No differences have been found when remelting alloys were used. The microhardness were similar in Ni-Cr alloys casted once, twice and three times. A wettability test was accomplished using a software developed at the Laboratório de Processamento de Materiais por Plasma, on the Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte. No differences were found in the contact angle between the solid surface (metallic substratum) and the tangencial plane to the liquid surface (opaque). To analyse if the temperature of porcelain firing procedure could influence the contact area between metal and porcelain, a variation in its final temperature was achieve from 980° to 955°C. Once more, no differences have been found

Um sistema para a inferência de variáveis usando redes neurais artificiais

This work aims to obtain a low-cost virtual sensor to estimate the quality of LPG. For the acquisition of data from a distillation tower, software HYSYS ® was used to simulate chemical processes. These data will be used for training and validation of an Artificial Neural Network (ANN). This network will aim to estimate from available simulated variables such as temperature, pressure and discharge flow of a distillation tower, the mole fraction of pentane present in LPG. Thus, allowing a better control of product quality

Térmitas como bioindicadores de qualidade de habitat na caatinga, Brasil: há uma sintonia entre as variáveis estruturais dos habitats e as taxocenoses amostradas?

The composition of termite assemblages was analyzed at three Caatinga sites of the Seridó Ecological Station, located in the municipality of Serra Negra do Norte, in the state of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil. These sites have been subjected to selective logging, and cleared for pasture and farming. A standardized sampling protocol for termite assemblages (30h/person/site) was conducted between September 2007 and February 2009. At each site we measured environmental variables, such as soil granulometry, pH and organic matter, necromass stock, vegetation height, tree density, stem diameter at ankle height (DAH) and the largest and the smallest crown width. Ten species of termites, belonging to eight genera and three families, were found at the three experimental sites. Four feeding-groups were sampled: wood-feeders, soil-feeders, wood-soil interface feeders and leaf-feeders. The wood-feeders were dominant in number of species and number of encounters at all sites. In general, the sites were not significantly different in relation to the environmental variables measured. The same pattern was observed for termite assemblages, where no significant differences in species richness, relative abundance and taxonomic and functional composition were observed between the three sites. The agreement between the composition of assemblages and environmental variables reinforces the potential of termites as biological indicators of habitat quality

Efeitos das variáveis ambientais locais sobre a abundância, a riqueza e a biomassa da macrofauna de solo em um ecossistema semiárido no estado do rio grande do norte, nordeste do brasil

The soil macrofauna is influenced to several biotic and abiotic environmental factors, from changes in the physical environment to a variety of interactions among the species involved, affecting the patterns of biodiversity of soil fauna. The power and specificity of the mechanisms that act on soil organisms vary greatly depending on environmental conditions at different scales of space and time. The Caatinga has great spatial heterogeneity of vegetation, climate and soil, so the soil macrofauna would follow this local spatial variation in the environment? This study aimed to investigate the effects of local environmental variables on biological parameters (taxa richness, total abundance and biomass) of soil macrofauna in a fragment of caatinga in João Câmara, Rio Grande Norte, Northeast Brazil. The study was conducted in the Cauaçu farm, where a grid of 2000m x 500m was drawn, and later, 30 sampling points were randomly selected. The methodology used to collect the macrofauna was the TSBF method. We tested the effects of 10 environmental variables on macrofauna across the plots and across the layers of soil. The hypothesis that macrofauna soil responds to changes in the environment was not supported throughout the plots, but was confirmed to soil layers. The soil macrofauna shows a pattern of concentration in the surface layer and decreases considerably in the deeper layers. This pattern had significant and positive relationship with the aerial plant biomass and fine root stock. The aerial plant biomass releases plant necromass that accumulates in the surface layer, providing an important source of resource and shelter for soil macrofauna, explaining their greater abundance in this layer. The roots are used as a means for the arrival of nutrients to the soil from the primary production, thus a greater amount of root conditions higher food intake for macrofauna, especially the herbivores

Predição da maturação puberal de indivíduos do sexo masculino a partir de variáveis antropométricas

The methods of analysis of the selection system sports talent sometimes do not consider the biological age of the athletes, since that the assessment of maturational moment have several limitations The aim of this work is to develop a predictive equation of pubertal assessment in male subjects, based on anthropometric measurements. We evaluated 206 young boys, aged between eight and 18 years, and studing in public and private schools in Natal, Brazil. The sample selection was done randomly, being used the anthropometric measurements and pubertal maturation evaluation according to the Tanner stages. Statistical analysis followed the presentation of central tendency measures and their derivatives. The inferential analysis was performed according to the ANOVA test, multivariate discriminant analysis and weighted Kappa. The advancement of pubertal stages was accompanied by significant changes in anthropometric variables, demonstrating the relationship presented in both. For this purpose, discriminant analysis selected eight variables with the highest prediction of pubertal maturation, and created an equation with a significance level of 75%. and concordance level of 0.840, considered as excellent. This shows that the prediction of pubertal maturation from anthropometric variables presented as a valid method, being used as a practical tool in sports talents selection

Estratégia de marketing ambiental no varejo de alimentos: um estudo sobre as variáveis utilizadas pelo consumidor na decisão de compra de produtos orgânicos

Demand for organic foods within in Brazil are growing, characterizing itself for if constituting in a new strategical segment of commercialization. In this context, the objective of this research was to investigate the variables used by consumers in the purchase decision of organic products, aiming to characterize the level of competitiveness of these products, assisting in the creation of environmental strategies for the development of the activity and contributing in the increment of the knowledge about the subject, that can assist it in the increase of the commercialization and the consumption of these foods. From data collected in the city of Natal/RN, it was used a survey research, of exploratory and descriptive character. The sample was obtained using 401 questionnaires, in which was realized: the Test of Comparison of Averages, Descriptive analysis, analysis of Cluster and Qui-square. The results found in this study indicate that the main reasons for the organic food purchase are the absence of chemical pesticides in the product, followed by the care with own health and of the household. The main characteristics in the consumers of supermarkets, that are associates with purchase frequency of organic foods are the environmental behavior and lifestyle. Among the profile characteristics, gender, age and number of children are associates with the purchase frequency of these foods and the income and level education not showed association

Estudo das variáveis de processamento das matérias-primas da região do crato - ce na fabricação de produtos cerâmicos por extrusão e por prensagem

The limits to inform is about the character stico of basic, quimica, mineralogical and mechaniques of matlaughed material used in the manufacturing process the product certified in economic region the Cariri, specifically in the city of Crato, Ceará state, motivated the development of this work, since in this region the exist ing economic context that a general appear as important in the production chains. Were made twentyfive soils-test specimen collection and the study was performed to differentiate the mat laugh materials of variaveis processing of mathing raw materials in the factory The product mica monkeys by extrusion and pressing. The results were obtained ap s as analyzes: grain size, index of plasticity, fluoresce incidence X-ray difration the X-ray, and analyzes thermicals and properties technological. through s of curves gresifica returned to was a comparison between the retro the linear, absorb to water, porosity and bulk density. the results show that the excellent distribution and character acceptable available for the processing of the structure color dark red. needing, therefore, of the mixture of a less plastic clay with thick granulation, that works as plasticity reducer. In spite of the different resignation forms for prensagem and extrusion, the characteristics of absorption of water and rupture tension the flexing was shown inside of the patterns of ABNT

Efeito de variáveis de processo no tempo de fermentação e na concentração das dicetonas vicinais totais

Among the main challenges in the beer industrial production is the market supply at the lowest cost and high quality, in order to ensure the expectations of customers and. consumers The beer fermentation stage represents approximately 70% of the whole time necessary to its production, having a obligatoriness of strict process controls to avoid becoming bottleneck in beer production. This stage is responsible for the formation of a series of subproducts, which are responsible for the composition of aroma/bouquet existing in beer and some of these subproducts, if produced in larger quantities, they will confer unpleasant taste and odor to the final product. Among the subproducts formed during the fermentation stage, total vicinal diketones is the main component, since it is limiting for product transfusion to the subsequent steps, besides having a low perception threshold by the consumer and giving undesirable taste and odor. Due to the instability of main raw materials quality and also process controls during fermentation, the development of alternative forms of beer production without impacting on total fermentation time and final product quality is a great challenge to breweries. In this work, a prior acidification of the pasty yeast was carried out, utilizing for that phosphoric acid, food grade, reducing yeast pH of about 5.30 to 2.20 and altering its characteristic from flocculent to pulverulent during beer fermentation. An increase of six times was observed in amount of yeast cells in suspension in the second fermentation stage regarding to fermentations by yeast with no prior acidification. With alteration on two input variables, temperature curve and cell multiplication, which goal was to minimize the maximum values for diketones detected in the fermenter tank, a reduction was obtained from peak of formed diacetyl and consequently contributed to reduction in fermentation time and total process time. Several experiments were performed with those process changes in order to verify the influence on the total fermentation time and total vicinal diketones concentration at the end of fermentation. This experiment reached as the best production result a total fermentation time of 151 hours and total vicinal diketone concentration of 0.08 ppm. The mass of yeast in suspension in the second phase of fermentation increased from 2.45 x 106 to 16.38 x 106 cells/mL of yeast, which fact is key to a greater efficiency in reducing total vicinal diketones existing in the medium, confirming that the prior yeast acidification, as well as the control of temperature and yeast cell multiplication in fermentative process enhances the performance of diketones reduction and consequently reduce the total fermentation time with diketones concentration below the expected value (Max: 0.10 ppm)

A influência da poluição difusa e do regime hidrológico peculiar do semiárido na qualidade da água de um reservatório tropical

In semiarid region of northeast Brazil, the majority of reservoirs used for public supply has suffered degradation of water quality affected by diffuse pollution from agricultural and livestock areas of the watershed and by hydrologic regime peculiar to the region, characterized by a rainy season with higher volumes stored in reservoirs and a dry season with a reduction in water level due to high evaporation and increase of eutrophication. The Dourado reservoir, located in Currais Novos city, semiarid region of Rio Grande do Norte state, is one example of a water supply reservoir that can have degradation of water quality and impracticability of their use, due to the high external input of nutrients from non-point sources of watershed during the rainy season and increasing of eutrophication due to decrease the stored volume during the dry period. This study aimed to investigate and quantify diffuse pollution and the hydrologic regime of semiarid region in order to establish standards regarding the water quality of Dourado reservoir. The study period was between the months of May 2011 to March 2012. The diffuse pollution was quantified in terms of watershed from the mass balance of phosphorus in the reservoir, as in relation to areas under different types of land use within the riparian zone of the reservoir from the assessment of soil chemical properties and losses of phosphorus in each area. The influence of hydrological regime on water quality of the reservoir was evaluated from the monthly monitoring of the morphometric, meteorological and limnological features throughout the study period. The results showed that the reservoir has received a high load of phosphorus coming from the drainage basin and presents itself as a system able to retain some of that load tributary, giving an upward trend of the eutrophication process. Diffuse pollution by nutrients from areas under different types of land use within the riparian zone of the reservoir was higher in areas under the influence of livestock, being this area considered a potential diffuse source of nutrients to the reservoir. Regarding the water regime during the rainy season the reservoir was characterized by high concentrations of nutrients and small algal biomass, while in the dry season the reduction of volume and increase of the water retention time of the reservoir, contributing to the excessive growth algal biomass, favoring an increase in eutrophication and deterioration of water quality. In synthesis the water quality of Dourado reservoir is directed by diffuse pollution coming from the drainage basin and the hydrological regime of the peculiar semiarid region, where the rainy season is characterized by high input of allochthonous compounds from the tributaries and erosion of the soil in the reservoir riparian zone, and the dry season characterized by reducing the storage volume due to high evaporation, high residence time of water and consequent degradation of water quality due to the increase of eutrophication process

Estudo sistemático de estrelas variáveis na era dos grandes surveys

The interest in the systematic analysis of astronomical time series data, as well as development in astronomical instrumentation and automation over the past two decades has given rise to several questions of how to analyze and synthesize the growing amount of data. These data have led to many discoveries in the areas of modern astronomy asteroseismology, exoplanets and stellar evolution. However, treatment methods and data analysis have failed to follow the development of the instruments themselves, although much effort has been done. In present thesis, we propose new methods of data analysis and two catalogs of the variable stars that allowed the study of rotational modulation and stellar variability. Were analyzed the photometric databases fromtwo distinctmissions: CoRoT (Convection Rotation and planetary Transits) and WFCAM (Wide Field Camera). Furthermore the present work describes several methods for the analysis of photometric data besides propose and refine selection techniques of data using indices of variability. Preliminary results show that variability indices have an efficiency greater than the indices most often used in the literature. An efficient selection of variable stars is essential to improve the efficiency of all subsequent steps. Fromthese analyses were obtained two catalogs; first, fromtheWFCAMdatabase we achieve a catalog with 319 variable stars observed in the photometric bands Y ZJHK. These stars show periods ranging between ∼ 0, 2 to ∼ 560 days whose the variability signatures present RR-Lyrae, Cepheids , LPVs, cataclysmic variables, among many others. Second, from the CoRoT database we selected 4, 206 stars with typical signatures of rotationalmodulation, using a supervised process. These stars show periods ranging between ∼ 0, 33 to ∼ 92 days, amplitude variability between ∼ 0, 001 to ∼ 0, 5 mag, color index (J - H) between ∼ 0, 0 to ∼ 1, 4 mag and spectral type CoRoT FGKM. The WFCAM variable stars catalog is being used to compose a database of light curves to be used as template in an automatic classifier for variable stars observed by the project VVV (Visible and Infrared Survey Telescope for Astronomy) moreover it are a fundamental start point to study different scientific cases. For example, a set of 12 young stars who are in a star formation region and the study of RR Lyrae-whose properties are not well established in the infrared. Based on CoRoT results we were able to show, for the first time, the rotational modulation evolution for an wide homogeneous sample of field stars. The results are inagreement with those expected by the stellar evolution theory. Furthermore, we identified 4 solar-type stars ( with color indices, spectral type, luminosity class and rotation period close to the Sun) besides 400 M-giant stars that we have a special interest to forthcoming studies. From the solar-type stars we can describe the future and past of the Sun while properties of M-stars are not well known. Our results allow concluded that there is a high dependence of the color-period diagram with the reddening in which increase the uncertainties of the age-period realized by previous works using CoRoT data. This thesis provides a large data-set for different scientific works, such as; magnetic activity, cataclysmic variables, brown dwarfs, RR-Lyrae, solar analogous, giant stars, among others. For instance, these data will allow us to study the relationship of magnetic activitywith stellar evolution. Besides these aspects, this thesis presents an improved classification for a significant number of stars in the CoRoT database and introduces a new set of tools that can be used to improve the entire process of the photometric databases analysis