Um sistema para a inferência de variáveis usando redes neurais artificiais

This work aims to obtain a low-cost virtual sensor to estimate the quality of LPG. For the acquisition of data from a distillation tower, software HYSYS ® was used to simulate chemical processes. These data will be used for training and validation of an Artificial Neural Network (ANN). This network will aim to estimate from available simulated variables such as temperature, pressure and discharge flow of a distillation tower, the mole fraction of pentane present in LPG. Thus, allowing a better control of product quality

Modelo de covariância bayesiana para seleção de protfólios de investimentos

The portfolio theory is a field of study devoted to investigate the decision-making by investors of resources. The purpose of this process is to reduce risk through diversification and thus guarantee a return. Nevertheless, the classical Mean-Variance has been criticized regarding its parameters and it is observed that the use of variance and covariance has sensitivity to the market and parameter estimation. In order to reduce the estimation errors, the Bayesian models have more flexibility in modeling, capable of insert quantitative and qualitative parameters about the behavior of the market as a way of reducing errors. Observing this, the present study aimed to formulate a new matrix model using Bayesian inference as a way to replace the covariance in the MV model, called MCB - Covariance Bayesian model. To evaluate the model, some hypotheses were analyzed using the method ex post facto and sensitivity analysis. The benchmarks used as reference were: (1) the classical Mean Variance, (2) the Bovespa index's market, and (3) in addition 94 investment funds. The returns earned during the period May 2002 to December 2009 demonstrated the superiority of MCB in relation to the classical model MV and the Bovespa Index, but taking a little more diversifiable risk that the MV. The robust analysis of the model, considering the time horizon, found returns near the Bovespa index, taking less risk than the market. Finally, in relation to the index of Mao, the model showed satisfactory, return and risk, especially in longer maturities. Some considerations were made, as well as suggestions for further work

Sistema Híbrido de Inferência Baseado em Análise de Componentes Principais e Redes Neurais Artificiais Aplicado a Plantas de Processamento de Gás Natural

Nowadays, where the market competition requires products with better quality and a constant search for cost savings and a better use of raw materials, the research for more efficient control strategies becomes vital. In Natural Gas Processin Units (NGPUs), as in the most chemical processes, the quality control is accomplished through their products composition. However, the chemical composition analysis has a long measurement time, even when performed by instruments such as gas chromatographs. This fact hinders the development of control strategies to provide a better process yield. The natural gas processing is one of the most important activities in the petroleum industry. The main economic product of a NGPU is the liquefied petroleum gas (LPG). The LPG is ideally composed by propane and butane, however, in practice, its composition has some contaminants, such as ethane and pentane. In this work is proposed an inferential system using neural networks to estimate the ethane and pentane mole fractions in LPG and the propane mole fraction in residual gas. The goal is to provide the values of these estimated variables in every minute using a single multilayer neural network, making it possibly to apply inferential control techniques in order to monitor the LPG quality and to reduce the propane loss in the process. To develop this work a NGPU was simulated in HYSYS R software, composed by two distillation collumns: deethanizer and debutanizer. The inference is performed through the process variables of the PID controllers present in the instrumentation of these columns. To reduce the complexity of the inferential neural network is used the statistical technique of principal component analysis to decrease the number of network inputs, thus forming a hybrid inferential system. It is also proposed in this work a simple strategy to correct the inferential system in real-time, based on measurements of the chromatographs which may exist in process under study

Inferência do ponto de orvalho em amostras de gás natural processado

This dissertation aims to assess the representativeness of the manual chilled mirror analyzer (model II Chanscope 13-1200-CN-2) used for the determination of condensed hydrocarbons of natural gas compared to the indirect methods, based on thermodynamic models equation of state. Additionally, it has been implemented in this study a model for calculating the dew point of natural gas. The proposed model is a modification of the equation of state of Peng-Robinson admits that the groups contribution as a strategy to calculate the binary interaction parameters kij (T) temperature dependence. Experimental data of the work of Brown et al. (2007) were used to compare the responses of the dew point of natural gas with thermodynamic models contained in the UniSim process simulator and the methodology implemented in this study. Then two natural gas compositions were studied, the first being a standard gas mixture gravimetrically synthesized and, second, a mixture of processed natural gas. These experimental data were also compared with the results presented by UniSim process simulator and the thermodynamic model implemented. However, data from the manual analysis results indicated significant differences in temperature, these differences were attributed to the formation of dew point of water, as we observed the appearance of moisture on the mirror surface cooling equipment

A inferência causal na filosofia moral de Hume.

Starting from the idea that the result of the Humean analysis of causal inferences must be applied coherently to the remaining part of his work, including its moral theory, the present master thesis aims at investigating whether Hume´s moral philosophy is essentially based on feeling, or whether this would not be rather essentially a consequence of our causal inferences in human actions and deliberations. The main idea consists in showing that our moral inferences, to the extent that they are for Hume empirical , depend on our belief in a connexion between something which has been previously observed and something which is not being observed ( but that it is expected to occur or to be observed in the future). Thus, this very belief must base our moral inferences concerning the actions and deliberations of the individuals. Therefore, must e o ipso induce us to associate actions and behaviors, as well as character and moral claims of men to certain moral feelings. Accordingly, the thesis is unfolded in three chapters. In the first chapter Hume´s theory of the perception is reported as essential part of the explanation or the principles that bind ideas in our mind and constitute our inferences. In the second chapter, the Humean analysis of causal inferences is presented and the way they contribute in the formation of our moral inferences is explained. In the third and last chapter, the formation of our moral inferences and the real contribution of the doctrine of freedom and necessity for the examination or our actions are analysed and discussed.

Estimação clássica e Bayesiana em modelos de sobrevida com fração de cura

In Survival Analysis, long duration models allow for the estimation of the healing fraction, which represents a portion of the population immune to the event of interest. Here we address classical and Bayesian estimation based on mixture models and promotion time models, using different distributions (exponential, Weibull and Pareto) to model failure time. The database used to illustrate the implementations is described in Kersey et al. (1987) and it consists of a group of leukemia patients who underwent a certain type of transplant. The specific implementations used were numeric optimization by BFGS as implemented in R (base::optim), Laplace approximation (own implementation) and Gibbs sampling as implemented in Winbugs. We describe the main features of the models used, the estimation methods and the computational aspects. We also discuss how different prior information can affect the Bayesian estimates

Inferência geográfica para delimitação de corredores ecológicos: um estudo de caso para a Mata Atlântica do município de Tibau do Sul/RN

The Atlantic Forest biome occupies much of the Atlantic coast of Brazil, in addition to portions of Paraguay and Argentina. Due mainly to its biodiversity which falls in the group of global hotspots, i.e., areas that have high priority for conservation. Although currently there are some available devices that assist in their protection in the course of the history of occupation and exploitation of the Brazilian territory, this biome has gone, and is still going through, an intense process of devastation, caused mainly by the pressure from economic activities, culminating in a significant reduction of its area and consequent fragmentation of the landscape, which brings with hosts a series of problems at various scales and aspects. As in most municipalities included in the reach area of the biome, the situation of forest fragmentation in Tibau do Sul / RN is quite critical, reflecting on a truly diverse landscape with broad typology of land uses. Among the alternatives aimed at the conservation of this biome include the creation of protected areas and the creation of ecological corridors, the latter being more efficient by connecting the remaining forests, increasing landscape connectivity, providing significant gains in relation to biodiversity. However, a major problem on implementation of Ecological Corridors projects is related to the selection of areas for this purpose, in this sense Geography can provide important contributions through the integrated study of landscape in the light of the geosystemic approach and the use of Geographical Information System (GIS) in order to permit assessment of reality having as a base the integration of ecological, biological and man-made aspects. Thus, this research aims to indicate potential areas and propose scenarios delimitation of Ecological Corridors in the municipality of Tibau do Sul / RN through Geographic Inference techniques in GIS platform. Therefore, the methodology adopted is based on the Geosystemic approach. From these elements were created 4 models to indicate potential areas for implementation of Ecological Corridors from the environmental perspective (potential erosion), socioeconomic (cover and land prices), legislative (areas protected by environmental legislation) and integrated (combination of environmental factors, socioeconomic and legislative), which in turn served as a basis for proposing scenarios aimed at this purpose. The results showed that all models can be quite useful in indicating potential areas for the establishment of ecological corridors, especially when based on an integrated approach between environmental and anthropogenic. The Corridors delimitation proposes shown may perform duties beyond the establishment of connectivity between fragments, since they also may have usefulness in controlling erosion and protecting fragile environments. Among the models developed, the integrated constituted itself as the best option because it enabled the interconnection of a larger number of fragments from a better use of the potentialities present in the landscape

Filogenia molecular das enzimas isocitrato liase e malato sintase e sua evolução em Viridiplanta

The plant metabolism consists of a complex network of physical and chemical events resulting in photosynthesis, respiration, synthesis and degradation of organic compounds. This is only possible due to the different kinds of responses to many environmental variations that a plant could be subject through evolution, leading also to conquering new surroundings. The glyoxylate cycle is a metabolic pathway found in glyoxysomes plant, which has unique role in the seedling establishment. Considered as a variation of the citric acid cycle, it uses an acetyl coenzyme A molecule, derived from lipids beta-oxidation to synthesize compounds which are used in carbohydrate synthesis. The Malate synthase (MLS) and Isocitrate lyase (ICL) enzyme of this cycle are unique and essential in regulating the biosynthesis of carbohydrates. Because of the absence of decarboxylation steps as rate-limiting steps, detailed studies of molecular phylogeny and evolution of these proteins enables the elucidation of the effects of this route presence in the evolutionary processes involved in their distribution across the genome from different plant species. Therefore, the aim of this study was to establish a relationship between the molecular evolution of the characteristics of enzymes from the glyoxylate cycle (isocitrate lyase and malate synthase) and their molecular phylogeny, among green plants (Viridiplantae). For this, amino acid and nucleotide sequences were used, from online repositories as UniProt and Genbank. Sequences were aligned and then subjected to an analysis of the best-fit substitution models. The phylogeny was rebuilt by distance methods (neighbor-joining) and discrete methods (maximum likelihood, maximum parsimony and Bayesian analysis). The identification of structural patterns in the evolution of the enzymes was made through homology modeling and structure prediction from protein sequences. Based on comparative analyzes of in silico models and from the results of phylogenetic inferences, both enzymes show significant structure conservation and their topologies in agreement with two processes of selection and specialization of the genes. Thus, confirming the relevance of new studies to elucidate the plant metabolism from an evolutionary perspective

Ferramenta para avaliação e inferência de parâmetros de redes industriais sem fio

Wireless sensor networks (WSN) have gained ground in the industrial environment, due to the possibility of connecting points of information that were inaccessible to wired networks. However, there are several challenges in the implementation and acceptance of this technology in the industrial environment, one of them the guaranteed availability of information, which can be influenced by various parameters, such as path stability and power consumption of the field device. As such, in this work was developed a tool to evaluate and infer parameters of wireless industrial networks based on the WirelessHART and ISA 100.11a protocols. The tool allows quantitative evaluation, qualitative evaluation and evaluation by inference during a given time of the operating network. The quantitative and qualitative evaluation are based on own definitions of parameters, such as the parameter of stability, or based on descriptive statistics, such as mean, standard deviation and box plots. In the evaluation by inference uses the intelligent technique artificial neural networks to infer some network parameters such as battery life. Finally, it displays the results of use the tool in different scenarios networks, as topologies star and mesh, in order to attest to the importance of tool in evaluation of the behavior of these networks, but also support possible changes or maintenance of the system.

Um sistema para a inferência de variáveis usando redes neurais artificiais

This work aims to obtain a low-cost virtual sensor to estimate the quality of LPG. For the acquisition of data from a distillation tower, software HYSYS ® was used to simulate chemical processes. These data will be used for training and validation of an Artificial Neural Network (ANN). This network will aim to estimate from available simulated variables such as temperature, pressure and discharge flow of a distillation tower, the mole fraction of pentane present in LPG. Thus, allowing a better control of product quality

Filogenia molecular de fungos gasteroides das ordens Phallales e Geastrales (Phallomycetidae)

Gasteroids fungi are characterized by the basidiospores maturation inside the basidioma, from which spores liberation occurs in a passive manner. These fungi were once seen as a well definite class of Basidiomycota, but nowadays they are considered an artificial assemblage, because the organisms have independent evolutionary histories forming a polyphyletic group with a vast morphological variety. Despite their diversity, studies with this group in the tropics are incipient, and the phylogenetic relationships of the species from temperate climate remain unknown. Thus, this work aimed to elucidate the phylogenetic relationships of gasteroids fungi from the Geastrales and Phallales orders, with the inclusion of tropical and temperate species, and with these analyses suggest a systematic position of species like Aseroë floriformis and Phallus roseus, as well as to verify if the lignicolous habit can indicate parental relationship in the Geastrum genus. For this, basidiomata were collected at Atlantic rain forest areas, during the rainy season, and the specimen identification followed specific literature for gasteroid fungi. The phylogenetic analyses were performed with Maximum Parsimony and Bayesian Analysis, making use of RPB2 and 28S nuclear genes and atp6 mitochondrial gene. It could be observed on the Phallales dendogram, that Aseroë floriformis did not cluster with A. rubra, and that it has an anterior divergence from all others species of the family Clathraceae used in this analysis, assuming a basal position in the clade. Phallus roseus, which once was recognized as Itajahya, has previous divergence from the group formed by Phallus species. At the Geastrales dendogram, in the group corresponding to Geastrum genus, it could be observed that species with lignicolous habitat clustered in a clade with high support values. So, the results suggest the creation of a new genus to accommodate A. floriformis, and the revalidation of Itajahya, as well as it can be affirmed that the lignicolous habitat on the Geastrum genus in fact indicates parental relationships, and that it has arised only once at the evolutionary history of the genus

Indústria cultural e forró eletrônico no Rio Grande do Norte

The present study aimed to understand how and to what extent the electronic forró, currently hegemonic in the music market in the state of Rio Grande do Norte, establishes and maintains relations of domination in the social contexts in which it is produced, transmitted and received. Based, in significant form-content, on the writings of the first generation of theorists of the so-called Frankfurt School (Critical Theory), particularly with Theodor W. Adorno, and systematically using the contributions of the Cultural Studies (from the Centre for Contemporary Cultural Studies of Birmingham) and of the sociology of Pierre Bourdieu, this study aimed to perform, in the fertile intersection of these references, a critical possibility of interpretation of the electronic forró predominantly spread in the state of Rio Grande do Norte. To this end, aiming at a better apprehension of the so-called capital circuits/culture circuits , this study resulted from a qualitative investment of research, based on structured interviews with musicians, entrepreneurs of the sector and music consumers, as well as on the analysis of the themes contained in the official discography of the electronic forró band called Garota Safada (Shameless Girl). As a general empirical conclusion, it was possible to infer that far from the significant presence of domination or mere prevalence of oppositions, there is a relational pluralism of forms of domination and ways of resistances present in the production and consumption of electronic forró, regardless of gender, age, income, education or place of residence. However, the artifices of the cultural industry has been shown to be efficient: from large-scale businessmen to small producers enabled by the so-called open markets . The currentness of the concept of cultural industry is based on the idea that its products are offered systematically (the systematic insistence of everything to everyone) and on the notion that its production primarily meets the administrative criteria of control over the effects on the receiver (capacity of prescription of desires). Thus, the Adornian reflection on the pseudo-individualization leads to the inference that even in some of the most apparent ways of negotiation and/or refusal regarding the consumption of forró, certain behaviors of the cultural industry still prevail both in the very (re)interpretation of the forró and in the choice of other music genres also standardized, rationalized and massified. Therefore, despite the absence of cause-effect relation and the recognition of the popular capacity of re-elaboration and contestation of the media consumption, some world views prevailing in relation to the electronic forró establish or, at least, support some hegemonic ideologies, especially those concerning the life style, consumption and genre relations (fun by all means). Therefore, due the massification of certain songs, some ways of dissemination of values, beliefs and feelings are potentially experienced from the electronic forró. So, it is presumable that in the current advance of the process of semiformation (Halbbildung), the habitus of a part of the youth from the state of Rio Grande do Norte reinforces and is reinforced by the centrality of the trinomial fun, love and sex present in the songs, emphasized in some constructive practices of sense and in certain flows of social significance

Mortalidade infantil e condições socioeconômicas nas microrregiões do Nordeste Brasileiro

The study aims to answer the following question: what are the different profiles of infant mortality, according to demographic, socioeconomic, infrastructure and health care, for the micro-regions at the Northeast of Brazil? Thus, the main objective is to analyze the profiles or typologies associated mortality levels sociodemographic conditions of the micro-regions, in the year 2010. To this end, the databases of birth and death certificates of SIM and SINASC (DATASUS/MS), were taken from the 2010 population Census microdata and from SIDRA/IBGE. As a methodology, a weighted multiple linear regression model was used in the analysis in order to find the most significant variables in the explanation child mortality for the year 2010. Also a cluster analysis was performed, seeking evidence, initially, of homogeneous groups of micro-regions, from of the significant variables. The logit of the infant mortality rate was used as dependent variable, while variables such as demographic, socioeconomic, infrastructure and health care in the micro-regions were taken as the independent variables of the model. The Bayesian estimation technique was applied to the database of births and deaths, due to the inconvenient fact of underreporting and random fluctuations of small quantities in small areas. The techniques of Spatial Statistics were used to determine the spatial behavior of the distribution of rates from thematic maps. In conclusion, we used the method GoM (Grade of Membership), to find typologies of mortality, associated with the selected variables by micro-regions, in order to respond the main question of the study. The results points out to the formation of three profiles: Profile 1, high infant mortality and unfavorable social conditions; Profile 2, low infant mortality, with a median social conditions of life; and Profile 3, median and high infant mortality social conditions. With this classification, it was found that, out of 188 micro-regions, 20 (10%) fits the extreme profile 1, 59 (31.4%) was characterized in the extreme profile 2, 34 (18.1%) was characterized in the extreme profile 3 and only 9 (4.8%) was classified as amorphous profile. The other micro-regions framed up in the profiles mixed. Such profiles suggest the need for different interventions in terms of public policies aimed to reducing child mortality in the region

Professores em contexto formativo: um estudo do processo de mudanças de concepções sobre o ensino da matemática

El objetivo en esta tesis consistió en estudiar el proceso de los cambios de los conceptos de profesores de la educación infantil y de los años iníciales de la educación básica referente a la enseñanza de la matemática. La investigación se desenvolvió en la escuela Presidente Kennedy, en la ciudad de Natal, en Rio Grande do Norte, teniendo como participante 05 (cinco) profesores del curso normal superior a través de la educación superior del instituto relacionado. El trabajo asocia el programa a él Programa de Pós-Graduação em Educação da Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, en la base de pesquisa Formação e Profissionalização Docente coordinada de los doctores Betânia Leite Ramalho e Isauro Beltran Núñez. El referencial teórico-metodológico en quien si apoya el trabajo se inserta en la señal conceptual usada por Giordan y de Vecchi (1996), de Carrillo y Contreras (1994), Ramalho; Núñez y Gauthier (2003), Ponte (1998), Guimarães (1988), Ernest (1989). En esta investigación, los conceptos de los profesores habían sido estudiados en el contexto educativo de la formación del nivel superior, usándola reflexiva crítico práctico como estrategia formativa. Estos conceptos se entienden como estructuras subyacentes al pensamiento del profesor. Dado la naturaleza del objeto del estudio, la información, para las intenciones de esta investigación, habían sido cosechados a través de los instrumentos siguientes: cuestionario, plan de la lección, entrevista diaria y del campo. El cuestionario fue constituido de preguntas abiertas y de las entrevistas de la mitad-structuralized. La organización de los datos permitió a La inferencia de los conceptos, usando la técnica de la triangulación de datos. La investigación divulgó que los conceptos de los profesores, a través del proceso formativo, se habían desarrollado de una plataforma para otra, yéndose puesto que los modelos didácticos tradicionales para otros modelos dirigidos a una tendencia didáctica de espontaneísta/investigativa. La reflexión crítica era considerada como elemento catalítico de los cambios de los conceptos de los profesores en la educación de las matemáticas, sin embargo déjenos verifican que estos cambios son difíciles de ocurrir para la naturaleza compleja de estos conceptos. Como facilitadores de los factores de estos cambios, encontramos y el investigativo el trabajo, la dinámica y la naturaleza de las actividades se convirtió en el colaborativo de proceso formativo, entre otros. Como obstáculos a los cambios, identificamos el contexto del trabajo de los profesores, de la cultura de los individualistas prácticos de sus profesores de los colegas, del concepto linear, estático y de los mecánicos de los procesos para enseñar, el conocimiento profesional construído durante la formación inicial, alineación con los modelos didácticos de sus viejos profesores, entre otros

A formação do enfermeiro na reflexividade

The study proposes an understanding of nurses training in reflexivity and the overcome the limits of biomedical formation model, from the thought of John Dewey, inserted in the panorama of the reflective practitioner introduced by Donald Schön and dialoguing with the perspective of the transforming action of Paulo Freire. We used a qualitative approach to collect empirical data through focus groups conducted with nursing students from 3rd to 5th year in the Faculty of Health Sciences, Trairi / UFRN in the year 2012. Data analysis occurred through the technique of thematic content analysis constituted of three stages: pre-analysis, exploration of the material, treatment of results, inference and interpretation of the material. Thus, the categories formulated by organizing, classifying and aggregating the the content of the speeches to groups who shared opinions approximations of thought generating a set of categories of analysis designed from the contents. The results present the experiences of nursing students and their reflections, demonstrating that the process of reflection permeates the journey of life. It is inferred that the knowledge acquired in these experiences do not always participate in this dialogue in this formative process, reducing previous experiences in the field of exemplification of everyday situations. We conclude that it is necessary to consolidate innovative pedagogical proposals that allow the continuous dialogue with reality, breaking with the decontextualized teaching process from reality insertion of the university. Rethinking of the structures is recommended, reinforcing the break with the biomedical model and the integration of knowledge dynamically