Avaliação e correções de testes de hipóteses em modelos de sobrevivência com fração de cura

Survival models deals with the modelling of time to event data. In certain situations, a share of the population can no longer be subjected to the event occurrence. In this context, the cure fraction models emerged. Among the models that incorporate a fraction of cured one of the most known is the promotion time model. In the present study we discuss hypothesis testing in the promotion time model with Weibull distribution for the failure times of susceptible individuals. Hypothesis testing in this model may be performed based on likelihood ratio, gradient, score or Wald statistics. The critical values are obtained from asymptotic approximations, which may result in size distortions in nite sample sizes. This study proposes bootstrap corrections to the aforementioned tests and Bartlett bootstrap to the likelihood ratio statistic in Weibull promotion time model. Using Monte Carlo simulations we compared the nite sample performances of the proposed corrections in contrast with the usual tests. The numerical evidence favors the proposed corrected tests. At the end of the work an empirical application is presented.

Por uma moradia termicamente confortável: proposta de habitação de interesse social com ênfase no conforto térmico

This research covers the topic of social housing and its relation to thermal comfort, so applied to an architectural and urban intervention in land situated in central urban area of Macaíba/RN, Brazil. Reflecting on the role of design and use of alternative building materials in the search for better performance is one of its main goals. The hypothesis is that by changing design parameters and choice of materials, it is possible to achieve better thermal performance results. Thus, we performed computer simulations of thermal performance and natural ventilation using computational fluid dynamics or CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics). The presentation of the thermal simulation followed the methodology proposed in the dissertation Negreiros (2010), which aims to find the percentage of the amount of hours of comfort obtained throughout the year, while data analysis was made of natural ventilation from images generated by the images extracted from the CFD. From model building designed, was fitted an analytical framework that results in a comparison between three different proposals for dwellings housing model, which is evaluated the question of the thermal performance of buildings, and also deals with the spatial variables design, construction materials and costs. It is concluded that the final report confirmed the general hypotheses set at the start of the study, it was possible to quantify the results and identify the importance of design and construction materials are equivalent, and that, if combined, lead to gains in thermal performance potential.

Capital Social e Desenvolvimento Rural: acesso, uso e gestão da água nos Territórios Rurais do Sertão do São Francisco

This study aimed to contribute to the discussion of social capital, seeking to relate that to the access, use and water resources management in the Sao Francisco Vale, specifically in rural areas of the wilderness of San Francisco situated in the State of Bahia and Pernambuco. As, stimulate action possibilities for individuals (family rural) apart by a patrimony public so precious that is water. Besides a theoretical discussion of social capital (networks, trust, participation) and rural development. We applied 387 questionnaires to farmers and some interviews with actors social of territorial forum and committee of the São Francisco basin where it was possible to correlate our variables in order to confirm our hypothesis: social capital is a key element to ensure access, use and management of water for rural families living in irrigated and rainfed areas

O corredor cultural: espaço de materialização da exclusão social em Mossoró-RN

In contemporary society, social exclusion is an actual and pertinent theme, because it presents itself as a challenge to management and planning of the public policies. In this perspective, the thesis entitled "The Cultural Corridor: space materialization of social exclusion in Mossoró-RN" is a moment of apprehension and analysis of the local reality from the urban policy implementation that emphasized an enterprising model, which has, as the concrete space to urban renovation manifestation, the cultural complex called cultural corridor. Because of the investigation and the directional hypothesis, it is possible to say that the urban development policy implemented in Mossoró, starting from the 1990 decade, based in the model of modernizing/enterprising management, has been causing an intensification of a society parcel exclusion from the city public space, since this public policy didn't prioritized job market increasing, as well as population incomes improving, poverty and social inequality reduction, at the same proportions it promoted geographic space reorganization with directional actions to build the "spectacle city"

Política de assistência social no Brasil: uma análise a partir das tipologias de políticas públicas

The study of public policy typologies is still a knowledge field which lacks more embracing and applicable studies to different sectors. On that perspective, this work, Social Assistance Policy in Brazil: an analysis from the typologies on public policy, pursues to add the relevant literature to social assistance what focus on the public policy ratings. Moreover, it concerns about a study on the the national policy of social assistance implemented by the Brazilian government from the theoretical referrence of the public policy typologies. For that reason, the referential framework of the public policies as well as the analisys of its fundamentals/principles that are indispensable for achieving a bigger goal, that is to tipify the social assistance policy based on the different public policy typologies and characterize it through the main elements which are intrinsec to the social political and economic reality of Brazil. Thus, the issue suggested for the work is: what is the profile and the political trajectory of the social assistance implemented by the Brazilian Government? How it presents, above all, the features of a distributive, focused and lawful policy, the work has been done througho the following hypothesis: the social assistance policy in Brazil has been of universal, assistance, and focusing aspects. For each of those features granted to the social assistance policy, there is a gathering of changes according to the social, political and economic moment of the country and that stands out due to the different institutions within every cyclical period. The work showed that besides the social policy has gone through meaningful changes during the last decades, even though the adoption of the Organic Law of Social Assistance and its rules, some of the mentioned characteristics still remain, as long as the State s primacy goes on being the economic policies over the dubbed social policies. Notwithstanding, the social assistance will build up itself from the materialization of the growing of the social rights related to the State, but also assuming an important role on the amplified reproducing process regarding the capitalist social relations

Entre o mercado e a construção social: uma análise da experiência da implantação doPRONAF-infraestrutura e PRONAT nos territórios do Mato Grande-RN e sertão do Apodi-RN (1997 - 2010)

Analyzes the development experience in the Territories of Mato Grande and Sertão do Apodi in the state of Rio Grande do Norte, evaluating the actions of the National Program for Strengthening Family Agriculture, specifically the line of infrastructure (PRONAF-INFRA), and the National Program for Sustainable Development of Rural Territories (PRONAT) in these territories. Summarizes the various rural development approaches and takes the theoretical assumptions of territorial development, the concept of constructed territory and market-plan territory, further the cycle model to analyze public policies selected these experiences. Thus, we propose to test the hypothesis that most of the actions implemented would lead to the formation of market-plan territories, in other words, perceived only as a platform for the presentation of projects. The literature and documents, combined with case studies, interviews and direct observation of the meetings of committees, showed that, despite two boards are under the same laws, rules and formal regulations, have clear differences when considering the theory and concepts that were used as reference. The Apodi s territory is closer to a constructed space thus the search for a broader agenda, more autonomous and more appropriate to the reality experienced by local actors. On other hand the Territory of Mato Grande had the characteristics of a market-plan territory more present. As the result, the territory of Sertão do Apodi accesses not only as part of a greater number of policies and funding sources, ensuring a greater and more diverse investment volume than the territory of Mato Grande. Despite these differences, studies have shown that territorial boards surveyed are still far from becoming the main forum for managing the development from conception planning socially constructed. Showed, finally, that territorial development strategy is relevant, but requires a long walk and a deep and continuous learning process to be successfully implemented in rural areas of Northeast Brazil

Habitus docente e representação social do ensinar Geografia na Educação Básica de Teresina - Piauí

The literature about the Geography teaching has shown that most male and female teachers of this subject go on guiding their teaching practice based on the traditional Geography fundamentals, whose main characteristic consist in the description of places. The incorporation of scientific standards that change the old principles and concepts have not been happening, unless in a punctual way. The overcoming of the traditional Geography, related to the aspects accepted by the scientific field have not happened in Brazil yet, not only because of certain obvious obstacles, as the literature has been pointed out but also by symbolic obstacles, which block the incorporation of the new, of the non habitual action. One of those obstacles that motivated the accomplishment of this study was the social representations that are theoretically studied here under the perspective developed by Serge Moscovici. Then, the focus of this doctorate study is concentrated in the apprehension of the content and structure of the social representation of teaching of Geography and its relation with the habitus that gives form and social visibility to the ones who are teachers of that subject in Teresina. The consecution of this work was especially based on the Pierre Bourdieu´s praxiology, mainly on the concepts of social field, habitus and capital, as well as the theory of social representations, specifically on the approach of central nucleus developed by Jean-Claude Abric and Jean-Claude Flament. The initial hypothesis pointed out the existence of a Geographer´s primary habitus built through the development process of the geographic science field in Brazil, as a basis of production of a social representation of teaching geography . That representation, however, would act as a symbolic obstacle to the incorporation of the new scientific contents and pedagogical practice, which require from the teacher investigative and questionable attitude in the presence of the reality and contents approached in the classroom. That initial hypothesis laid on the theoretical purpose that it has been developed by Domingos Sobrinho (1997), which states that there is a narrow relationship between the habitus and social representation. The study was developed with male and female teachers of Geography from public schools of Teresina. The methodology involved the use of a questionnaire, the free-word association technique and deep interviews. The achieved results showed the presence of a complex process of representational construction and its articulation with a habitus produced by the synthesis of several situational and cultural referents, from among of them we can point out an insertion in a social field of practice exclusively related to the teaching and the reproduction of a professoral teaching (SILVA, 2003), built through the school development process, which those male and female teachers were exposed. The initial hypothesis that considered the local reproduction of a primary habitus of the Geography was denied, therefore, it was verified that there is not in Teresina the production/reproduction of the structures, rules and practice of the national scientific field, in which this subject is inserted. Hence, the incorporation of the new patterns of the geographic scientific knowledge is difficult because of the inexistence of a scientific habitus, that is, mental schema systems that would let the teachers mentioned above connect themselves appropriately to the science and its practices. So, it has gotten a social representation of teaching geography based on contents strictly related to the reproduction of structures, mental schema from the educational field which attach themselves to the hegemonic pedagogical practices in the national scope

O Serviço Social e a exclusão/inclusão social dos portadores de HIV/AIDS :demandas e desafios nos hospitais públicos

This research presents the labors developed by the Social Service unto socially excluded HIV/Aids positives at public hospitals in Rio Grande do Norte (RN). It purposes to identify and to analyze the demands brought by the holder onto the Social Service professional as well as the challenges the latter face to minister to the former. It privileges, from the methodological viewpoint, the qualitative and quantitative analysis with the application of questionnaires, direct observation, semi-structured interviews and bibliographic references. Data were collected from 12 (twelve) social assistants who work at Giselda Trigueiro Hospital in Natal (7) and Rafael Fernandes Hospital in Mossoró (5). The central hypothesis that guided this study is that the social inclusion/exclusion process experienced by the HIV/Aids positive on society implies a demand for the Social Service that is inserted in the public health context (specially in HIV-referred public hospitals), whose agents, however, when attempting to answer those demands, meet obstacles due to both the precariousness of public health services and the social complexity that concerns the HIV/Aids epidemic. Results point out that, de facto, the HIV/Aids epidemic, because of the social exclusion/inclusion process to which the holder is subject results a demand for the social agents at hospitals. Demands rise principally from the patient s life condition, considering the increasing pauperization in the epidemic context. As to what it is concerned, social assistants, responding to the needs, come across concrete twofold challenges: the illness in itself, for all social, negative aspects that make part of quotidian life of holders; and the precarious state of the public health service in RN State, since that working conditions are unsatisfactory

A representação social de educação tecnológica de docentes da Rede Federal de Educação Profissional e Tecnológica: CEFETs do Rio Grande do Norte

The aim of this study was to investigate the social representation of technological education teachers at the Federal Technological Education Network. The survey was conducted from 2007 to 2010, and the respondents were 275 teachers, 135 of the Federal Center for Technological Education (CEFET in portuguese) in the state of Amazonas, in Manaus unit headquarters; 140 of the CEFET in the state of Rio Grande do Norte, a unit based in Natal. We adopt the concept of technological education as the top level of professional education, that is to say, the undergraduate programs of short duration called technological courses. The Federal Technological Education Network gathers hundreds of related institutions, coordinated and supervised by the Office of Vocational and Technological Education of the Ministry of Education. Although many of these institutions offer courses in technology education, no research addressing this subject from the perspective of Social Representations Theory (SRT) was found in the literature. We seek to unravel the social representation of technological education of the teachers by adopting the procedural approach of SRT. This is a qualitative approach, focusing on significant aspects of the representative activity and the formation mechanisms of the representation. Therefore, we search the socio-genesis of the representation in the articulations between discourses, social institutions and practices. We initiated the research through applying critical reading and an analytical perspective on the historical and regulatory documents of technological education in Brazil, from the early twentieth century to the present day. We adopt the Procedure for Multiple Classifications (PMC) from the Free Words Association Technique (FWAT) to access the elements of representational content. For the analysis of the data obtained with FWAT and selection of major words / phrases pertinent to the semantic field of education technology, we used Hamlet II software. For the data analysis of PMC and Free Classification (FC) we used the SPSS ® (Statistical Package for the Social Sciences) version 17.0 and used the method of multidimensional scaling - Multidimensional scaling - (MDS). The output from the central MDS takes the form of a set of scatterplots - "perceptual maps" - of which the points are the elements of the representational content. For the FC data analysis we used the Scalogram Multidimensional Analysis (SMA) - which makes use of the original data in its raw form and allows categorical data to be interpreted in the map as measures of (di)similarity. In order to help with the understanding of the settings of the perceptual maps of FC, we used the Content Analysis of the discourse fragments of the teachers interviewed. The results confirm our initial hypothesis regarding the presence of a single plot among the socio-cognitive study subjects, which is the basis for a social representation of technological education in line with the historic assumption of the dichotomy between mental and manual labor. In spite of the three merging representational elements of the representational content, the perceptual maps compiled from the MSA statistics corroborates the dichotomy, with the exception of the map relating to the subgroup of teachers belonging to the humanities

Projeto de mobilidade urbana: estudo sobre processos de integração com habitação de interesse social nas obras do PAC da COPA 2014 em Natal/RN

The public political investments of urban mobility financed by PAC of Cup 2014 have developed discussions and questions by the civil society in Brazil expecting positive results to the urban infrastructure referring to the possible human rights violation and, specially, rights of habitation related to the removing/expropriation noticed. Natal, capital of Rio Grande do Norte, is into this context, due to the urban mobility project linking North Zone of the city to the Arena das Dunas stadium, financed by the PAC of Cup 2014, named West Structural Corridor, that crosses a field of social interest and proposes almost 400 expropriations. This research analyzes how strategies and mechanisms of integration were presented between the mobility project of West Structural Corridor and the Social Interest Habitation affected by this project. We have as hypothesis those projects financed by PAC of Cup 2014/Urban Mobility to Natal/RN present many problems related to the integration of social interest to the housing project, however the National Politics of Urban Development has planned this integration. As a result we detach 3 strategies in the elaboration process about the integration of those politics: (i) integration between municipal secretaries involved in this project; (ii) urban integration of the city; and (iii) integration of public rules or public politics integrated. For each strategy were presented the main mechanisms used to establish the integration of the project. Those mechanisms, however, in this process of establishment/implementation of the empirical research, presented many contradictions and conflicts that compose problems to the integration between the mobility project and the housing area affected.

Mecanismos de sincronia social no ritmo circadiano de atividade durante a coabitação em casais de saguis (Callithrix jacchus)

In marmosets, it was observed that the synchrony among circadian activity profiles of animals that cohabite in family groups is stronger than those of the same sex and age of different families. Inside the group, it is stronger between the younger ones than between them and their parents. However, the mechanisms involved in the social synchrony are unknown. With the aim to investigate the synchronization mechanisms involved in the synchrony between the circadian activity profiles during cohabitation in pairs of marmosets, the motor activity was continuously registered by the use of actmeters on three dyads. The pairs were maintained in two different conditions of illumination: light-dark cycle LD 12:12 (LD cohabitation I – 21 days), and thereafter in LL (~350 lux). Under LL, the pairs were submitted to four experimental situations: 1. Cohabitation (LLJ I – 24 days), 2. Removal of one member of the pair to another room with similar conditions (LLS I – 20 days), 3. Reintroduction of the separated member in the cage of the first situation (LLJ II – 30 days) and 4. Removal of a member from each pair to another experimental room (LLS II – 7 days), to evaluate the mechanisms of synchronization. Ultimately, the members of each pair were reintroduced in the cage and were kept in LD cycle 12:12 (LDJ II – 11 days). The rhythms of pairs free-ran in LL, with identical periods between the members of each pair during the two stages of cohabitation. In the stages in which the animals were separated, only the rhythms of two females free-ran in the first stage and of three animals in the second one. In those conditions, the rhythms of animals of each pair showed different endogenous periods. Besides, during cohabitation in LD and LL, the members of each pair showed a stable phase relationship in the beginning of the active phase, while in the stages in which the animals were separated it was noticed a breaking in the stability in the phase relationships between the circadian activity profiles, with an increase in the difference in the phase angles between them. During cohabitation, at the transition between LD and LL, all animals showed free-running rhythms anticipating progressively the beginning and the end of the active phase in a phase similar to the previous condition, showing signs of entrainment to the previous LD. While in the posterior stages this was observed in only three animals between: LLT I and LLS I, and LLT II and LLS II, evidencing signs of entrainment to social cues between the members of each pair. On the other hand, one animal delayed progressively between LLT I and LLS I, three animals delayed between LLS I and LLT II, and three animals between LLT II and LLS II, perhaps by entrainment to the animals maintained outdoors in the colony. Similar process was observed in four animals between LLS II and LDT II, indicating entrainment to LD. In the transition between LLS I and LLT II, signs of masking was observed in the rhythm of a female in response to the male and in another pair in the rhythm of the male in regard to that of the female. The general and maximum correlations in the circadian activity profiles were stronger during cohabitation in LD and LL than in the absence of social contact in LL, evidencing the social effect. The cohabiting pairs had higher values of the maximum correlation in LD and LL than when the profiles were correlated to animals of different cages, with same or different sexes. Similar results were observed in the general correlation. Therefore, it is suggested that cohabitation induces a strong synchrony between circadian activity profiles in marmosets, which involves entrainment and masking. Nevertheless, additional studies are necessary to evaluate the effect of social cues on the synchronization of the circadian rhythm in pairs of marmosets in the absence of external social cues in order to confirm this hypothesis.

Por uma moradia termicamente confortável: proposta de habitação de interesse social com ênfase no conforto térmico

This research covers the topic of social housing and its relation to thermal comfort, so applied to an architectural and urban intervention in land situated in central urban area of Macaíba/RN, Brazil. Reflecting on the role of design and use of alternative building materials in the search for better performance is one of its main goals. The hypothesis is that by changing design parameters and choice of materials, it is possible to achieve better thermal performance results. Thus, we performed computer simulations of thermal performance and natural ventilation using computational fluid dynamics or CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics). The presentation of the thermal simulation followed the methodology proposed in the dissertation Negreiros (2010), which aims to find the percentage of the amount of hours of comfort obtained throughout the year, while data analysis was made of natural ventilation from images generated by the images extracted from the CFD. From model building designed, was fitted an analytical framework that results in a comparison between three different proposals for dwellings housing model, which is evaluated the question of the thermal performance of buildings, and also deals with the spatial variables design, construction materials and costs. It is concluded that the final report confirmed the general hypotheses set at the start of the study, it was possible to quantify the results and identify the importance of design and construction materials are equivalent, and that, if combined, lead to gains in thermal performance potential.