Modelo de covariância bayesiana para seleção de protfólios de investimentos

The portfolio theory is a field of study devoted to investigate the decision-making by investors of resources. The purpose of this process is to reduce risk through diversification and thus guarantee a return. Nevertheless, the classical Mean-Variance has been criticized regarding its parameters and it is observed that the use of variance and covariance has sensitivity to the market and parameter estimation. In order to reduce the estimation errors, the Bayesian models have more flexibility in modeling, capable of insert quantitative and qualitative parameters about the behavior of the market as a way of reducing errors. Observing this, the present study aimed to formulate a new matrix model using Bayesian inference as a way to replace the covariance in the MV model, called MCB - Covariance Bayesian model. To evaluate the model, some hypotheses were analyzed using the method ex post facto and sensitivity analysis. The benchmarks used as reference were: (1) the classical Mean Variance, (2) the Bovespa index's market, and (3) in addition 94 investment funds. The returns earned during the period May 2002 to December 2009 demonstrated the superiority of MCB in relation to the classical model MV and the Bovespa Index, but taking a little more diversifiable risk that the MV. The robust analysis of the model, considering the time horizon, found returns near the Bovespa index, taking less risk than the market. Finally, in relation to the index of Mao, the model showed satisfactory, return and risk, especially in longer maturities. Some considerations were made, as well as suggestions for further work

Avaliação comportamental e neuroquímica de ratos em dessincronização forçada: possíveis implicações para um modelo animal de oscilações no humor

Bipolar disorder has been growing in several countries. It is a disease with high mortality and has been responsible by the social isolation of the patients. Bipolar patients have alterations in circadian timing system, showing a phase shift in various physiological variables. There are several arguments demonstrating alterations in circadian rhythms may be part of the bipolar disorder pathophysiology. Given the necessity for further elucidation, the goal of this study was to validate the forced desynchronization protocol as an animal model for bipolar disorder. To do this, Wistar rats were submitted to a forced desynchronization protocol which consists in a symmetrical light dark cycle with 22h. Under this protocol, rats dissociate the locomotor activity rhythm into two components: one synchronized to the light / dark cycle with 22h, and another component with period longer than 24 hours following the animal endogenous period. These rhythms with different periods sometimes there is coincidence, which we named CAP (Coincidence Active Phase) and the opposite phase, non-coincidence, called NCAP (Non-Concidence Active Phase). The hypothesis is that in CAP animals present a mania-like behavior and animals in NCAP depressive-like behavior. We found some evidence described in detail throughout this thesis. In sum, the animals under forced desynchronization protocol were more stressed, showed an increase in stereotypic behaviors such as grooming and reduction in other behaviors such as risk assessment and vertical exploration when compared to the control group. The CAP animals showed increased locomotor activity, especially during the dark phase when compared to controls (rats under T24) and less depressive behavior in the forced swim test. The animals in NCAP showed a higher anxiety in elevated plus maze, but they don t have ahnedonia. The animals under dissociation have more labeled 5HT1A cells at the amygdala area, which appoint that they have more amygdala inhibition. Taking these data together, we could partially validated the forced desynchronization protocol as an animal model for mood oscillations

Uso do GPR na geração de modelos estáticos 3D para o planejamento de lavra de minerais pesados depositados em dunas eólicas

This project was developed as a partnership between the Laboratory of Stratigraphical Analyses of the Geology Department of UFRN and the company Millennium Inorganic Chemicals Mineração Ltda. This company is located in the north end of the paraiban coast, in the municipal district of Mataraca. Millennium has as main prospected product, heavy minerals as ilmenita, rutilo and zircon presents in the sands of the dunes. These dunes are predominantly inactive, and overlap the superior portion of Barreiras Formation rocks. The mining happens with the use of a dredge that is emerged at an artificial lake on the dunes. This dredge removes sand dunes of the bottom lake (after it disassembles of the lake borders with water jets) and directs for the concentration plant, through piping where the minerals are then separate. The present work consisted in the acquisition external geometries of the dunes, where in the end a 3D Static Model could be set up of these sedimentary deposits with emphasis in the behavior of the structural top of Barreiras Formation rocks (inferior limit of the deposit). The knowledge of this surface is important in the phase of the plowing planning for the company, because a calculation mistake can do with that the dredge works too close of this limit, taking the risk that fragments can cause obstruction in the dredge generating a financial damage so much in the equipment repair as for the stopped days production. During the field stages (accomplished in 2006 and 2007) topographical techniques risings were used with Total Station and Geodesic GPS as well as shallow geophysical acquisitions with GPR (Ground Penetrating Radar). It was acquired almost 10,4km of topography and 10km of profiles GPR. The Geodesic GPS was used for the data geopositioning and topographical rising of a traverse line with 630m of extension in the stage of 2007. The GPR was shown a reliable method, ecologically clean, fast acquisition and with a low cost in relation to traditional methods as surveys. The main advantage of this equipment is obtain a continuous information to superior surface Barreiras Formation rocks. The static models 3D were elaborated starting from the obtained data being used two specific softwares for visualization 3D: GoCAD 2.0.8 and Datamine. The visualization 3D allows a better understanding of the Barreiras surface behavior as well as it makes possible the execution of several types of measurements, favoring like calculations and allowing that procedures used for mineral extraction is used with larger safety