Influência dos intermediários de distribuição de produtos turísticos no processo de decisão do meio de hospedagem pelo consumidor

This study examines the complex hotel buyer decision process in front of the tourism distribution channels. Its objective is to describe the influence level of the tourism marketing intermediaries, mainly the travel agents and tour operators, over the hotel decision process by the buyer-tourist. The data collection process was done trough a survey with three hundred brazilian tourists hosted in nineteen hotels of Natal, capital of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil. The data analysis was done using some multivariate statistic techniques as correlation analysis, multiple regression analysis, factor analysis and multiple discriminant analysis. The research characterizes the hotel services consumers profile and his trip, and identifying the distribution channels used by them. Furthermore, the research verifies the intermediaries influence exercised over hotel buyer decision process, looking for identify causality relations between the influence level and the buyer profile. Verifies that information about hotels available on internet reduces the probability that this influence can be practiced; however it was possible identifying those consumers considers this information complementary and non-substitutes than the information from intermediaries. The characteristics of the data do not allow indentifying the factors that constraint the intermediaries influence neither identifying discriminant functions of the specific distribution channel choice by consumers. The study concludes that consumers don t agree in have been influenced by intermediaries or don t know if they have, still considering important to consult them and internet doesn t substitute their function as information source

Influência dos intermediários de distribuição de produtos turísticos no processo de decisão do meio de hospedagem pelo consumidor

This study examines the complex hotel buyer decision process in front of the tourism distribution channels. Its objective is to describe the influence level of the tourism marketing intermediaries, mainly the travel agents and tour operators, over the hotel decision process by the buyer-tourist. The data collection process was done trough a survey with three hundred brazilian tourists hosted in nineteen hotels of Natal, capital of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil. The data analysis was done using some multivariate statistic techniques as correlation analysis, multiple regression analysis, factor analysis and multiple discriminant analysis. The research characterizes the hotel services consumers profile and his trip, and identifying the distribution channels used by them. Furthermore, the research verifies the intermediaries influence exercised over hotel buyer decision process, looking for identify causality relations between the influence level and the buyer profile. Verifies that information about hotels available on internet reduces the probability that this influence can be practiced; however it was possible identifying those consumers considers this information complementary and non-substitutes than the information from intermediaries. The characteristics of the data do not allow indentifying the factors that constraint the intermediaries influence neither identifying discriminant functions of the specific distribution channel choice by consumers. The study concludes that consumers don t agree in have been influenced by intermediaries or don t know if they have, still considering important to consult them and internet doesn t substitute their function as information source

Algoritmo Q-learning como estratégia de exploração e/ou explotação para metaheurísticas GRASP e algoritmo genético

Techniques of optimization known as metaheuristics have achieved success in the resolution of many problems classified as NP-Hard. These methods use non deterministic approaches that reach very good solutions which, however, don t guarantee the determination of the global optimum. Beyond the inherent difficulties related to the complexity that characterizes the optimization problems, the metaheuristics still face the dilemma of xploration/exploitation, which consists of choosing between a greedy search and a wider exploration of the solution space. A way to guide such algorithms during the searching of better solutions is supplying them with more knowledge of the problem through the use of a intelligent agent, able to recognize promising regions and also identify when they should diversify the direction of the search. This way, this work proposes the use of Reinforcement Learning technique - Q-learning Algorithm - as exploration/exploitation strategy for the metaheuristics GRASP (Greedy Randomized Adaptive Search Procedure) and Genetic Algorithm. The GRASP metaheuristic uses Q-learning instead of the traditional greedy-random algorithm in the construction phase. This replacement has the purpose of improving the quality of the initial solutions that are used in the local search phase of the GRASP, and also provides for the metaheuristic an adaptive memory mechanism that allows the reuse of good previous decisions and also avoids the repetition of bad decisions. In the Genetic Algorithm, the Q-learning algorithm was used to generate an initial population of high fitness, and after a determined number of generations, where the rate of diversity of the population is less than a certain limit L, it also was applied to supply one of the parents to be used in the genetic crossover operator. Another significant change in the hybrid genetic algorithm is the proposal of a mutually interactive cooperation process between the genetic operators and the Q-learning algorithm. In this interactive/cooperative process, the Q-learning algorithm receives an additional update in the matrix of Q-values based on the current best solution of the Genetic Algorithm. The computational experiments presented in this thesis compares the results obtained with the implementation of traditional versions of GRASP metaheuristic and Genetic Algorithm, with those obtained using the proposed hybrid methods. Both algorithms had been applied successfully to the symmetrical Traveling Salesman Problem, which was modeled as a Markov decision process

Modelagem da decisão por pacotes de viagem: um estudo usando processo de hierarquia analítica AHP

The objective of this dissertation is to propose a Multi Criteria Decision Aid Model to be used by the costumers of the travel agencies and help them to choose the best package travel. The main objective is to contribute for the simplification of the travel package decision choice from the identification of the models of values and preference of the customers and applying them to the existing package. It is used the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method to structuralize a decision hierarchic model composed by six criteria (package cost, hotel category, security of the city, travel time, direct flight and position in ranking of the 10 most visited destination) and five real alternatives of packages for a holiday of three days created from travel agency data. The decision analysis was realized for the choice of a travel package by a group composed by two couples that regularly travels together, to which was asked to do a pairwise judgment of the criteria and the alternatives. The mains results show that, although been a group that travels together, there are different models of values in the weights of the criteria and a certain convergence in the scales of preferences of the alternatives in the criteria. It was not pointed a dominant alternative for all the members of the group separately, but an analysis of a total utility of the group shows a classification and an order of the travel packages and an alternative clearly in front of the others. The sensitivity analysis revels that there are changes in the ranking, but the two alternatives best classified in the normal analysis are the same ones in the sensitivity analysis, although with the positions changed. The analysis also led to a simplification of the process with the exclusion of alternatives dominated for the others ones. As main conclusion, it is evaluated that the model and method suggested allow a simplification of the decision process in the choice of travel packages

Análise de critérios de decisão em estratégia de arranjos produtivos locais: um estudo aplicando o processo de hierarquia analítica (AHP) no setor de cerâmica

This master thesis has the objective of investigating the strategic decision criteria of participants of Local Production Arrangements (LPA) in Brazil. The LPA s are an initiative of support agents to enterprises with the purpose of organizing joint actions for the development of groups (clusters) of enterprises. The choice of the actions is a decision of the participating enterprises and this paper aims at applying a Multi-criteria Analysis Method to analyze the criteria of entrepreneurs that are participating of a LPA. The used method is the Process of Analytical Hierarchy (PAH) and an application is presented along with questionnaires to participants of a ceramic LPA in the northeast of Brazil. The main results show that, in first place, from the implicit strategy of each enterprise there is only one objective for the LPA group and so, at the beginning, an action decided by all of them tends to favor some more than others. In second place, it was observed that there are general inconsistencies between the strategic objectives and the importance as to criteria, even though there have been cases of coherency. As the main conclusion it is pointed that the use of Methods of MCDA is useful to improve the decision making process and to bring more transparency to the logic of the found results

Trajetória de mulheres e a participação masculina no processo de aborto provocado

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior

Agentes Inteligentes com Foco de Atenção Afetivo em Simulações Baseadas em Agentes

Simulations based on cognitively rich agents can become a very intensive computing task, especially when the simulated environment represents a complex system. This situation becomes worse when time constraints are present. This kind of simulations would benefit from a mechanism that improves the way agents perceive and react to changes in these types of environments. In other worlds, an approach to improve the efficiency (performance and accuracy) in the decision process of autonomous agents in a simulation would be useful. In complex environments, and full of variables, it is possible that not every information available to the agent is necessary for its decision-making process, depending indeed, on the task being performed. Then, the agent would need to filter the coming perceptions in the same as we do with our attentions focus. By using a focus of attention, only the information that really matters to the agent running context are perceived (cognitively processed), which can improve the decision making process. The architecture proposed herein presents a structure for cognitive agents divided into two parts: 1) the main part contains the reasoning / planning process, knowledge and affective state of the agent, and 2) a set of behaviors that are triggered by planning in order to achieve the agent s goals. Each of these behaviors has a runtime dynamically adjustable focus of attention, adjusted according to the variation of the agent s affective state. The focus of each behavior is divided into a qualitative focus, which is responsible for the quality of the perceived data, and a quantitative focus, which is responsible for the quantity of the perceived data. Thus, the behavior will be able to filter the information sent by the agent sensors, and build a list of perceived elements containing only the information necessary to the agent, according to the context of the behavior that is currently running. Based on the human attention focus, the agent is also dotted of a affective state. The agent s affective state is based on theories of human emotion, mood and personality. This model serves as a basis for the mechanism of continuous adjustment of the agent s attention focus, both the qualitative and the quantative focus. With this mechanism, the agent can adjust its focus of attention during the execution of the behavior, in order to become more efficient in the face of environmental changes. The proposed architecture can be used in a very flexibly way. The focus of attention can work in a fixed way (neither the qualitative focus nor the quantitaive focus one changes), as well as using different combinations for the qualitative and quantitative foci variation. The architecture was built on a platform for BDI agents, but its design allows it to be used in any other type of agents, since the implementation is made only in the perception level layer of the agent. In order to evaluate the contribution proposed in this work, an extensive series of experiments were conducted on an agent-based simulation over a fire-growing scenario. In the simulations, the agents using the architecture proposed in this work are compared with similar agents (with the same reasoning model), but able to process all the information sent by the environment. Intuitively, it is expected that the omniscient agent would be more efficient, since they can handle all the possible option before taking a decision. However, the experiments showed that attention-focus based agents can be as efficient as the omniscient ones, with the advantage of being able to solve the same problems in a significantly reduced time. Thus, the experiments indicate the efficiency of the proposed architecture

Uma contribuição à solução do problema dos k-servos usando aprendizagem por reforço

Neste trabalho é proposto um novo algoritmo online para o resolver o Problema dos k-Servos (PKS). O desempenho desta solução é comparado com o de outros algoritmos existentes na literatura, a saber, os algoritmos Harmonic e Work Function, que mostraram ser competitivos, tornando-os parâmetros de comparação significativos. Um algoritmo que apresente desempenho eficiente em relação aos mesmos tende a ser competitivo também, devendo, obviamente, se provar o referido fato. Tal prova, entretanto, foge aos objetivos do presente trabalho. O algoritmo apresentado para a solução do PKS é baseado em técnicas de aprendizagem por reforço. Para tanto, o problema foi modelado como um processo de decisão em múltiplas etapas, ao qual é aplicado o algoritmo Q-Learning, um dos métodos de solução mais populares para o estabelecimento de políticas ótimas neste tipo de problema de decisão. Entretanto, deve-se observar que a dimensão da estrutura de armazenamento utilizada pela aprendizagem por reforço para se obter a política ótima cresce em função do número de estados e de ações, que por sua vez é proporcional ao número n de nós e k de servos. Ao se analisar esse crescimento (matematicamente, ) percebe-se que o mesmo ocorre de maneira exponencial, limitando a aplicação do método a problemas de menor porte, onde o número de nós e de servos é reduzido. Este problema, denominado maldição da dimensionalidade, foi introduzido por Belmann e implica na impossibilidade de execução de um algoritmo para certas instâncias de um problema pelo esgotamento de recursos computacionais para obtenção de sua saída. De modo a evitar que a solução proposta, baseada exclusivamente na aprendizagem por reforço, seja restrita a aplicações de menor porte, propõe-se uma solução alternativa para problemas mais realistas, que envolvam um número maior de nós e de servos. Esta solução alternativa é hierarquizada e utiliza dois métodos de solução do PKS: a aprendizagem por reforço, aplicada a um número reduzido de nós obtidos a partir de um processo de agregação, e um método guloso, aplicado aos subconjuntos de nós resultantes do processo de agregação, onde o critério de escolha do agendamento dos servos é baseado na menor distância ao local de demanda

Implicações socioambientais da construção de um parque eólico no município de Rio de Fogo-RN

The purpose of this study was to investigate the social-environmental implications of the first large scale wind farm recently built in Brazil (2006), Parque Eólico de Rio do Fogo (PERF), to the nearby communities. The research was base on the adjustment of the DIS/BCN tool to analyze social impact and it was linked to the multi-method approach. Applying the autophotography strategy, cameras were given to five children from the district of Zumbi, the nearest location to PERF, and they were asked to individually photograph the six places they liked the most and the six places they liked the least in their community. Then, these children were interviewed individually and collectively about the photographs. Adult locals in Zumbi, residents of Zumbi/Rio do Fogo settlement, members of the State and Municipal government and representatives of the PERF were also interviewed with the aid of some of the pictures taken by the children and others that might trigger something to say, as a strategy called sample function. The five children presented positive image towards PERF; all of them chose to photograph it as one of places they liked. Adult population of Zumbi presented positive visual evaluation towards PERF. A small number of the interviewees were aware of the environmental and social benefits of wind energy production. Residents did not participate of the decision making process regarding PERF. They approved the project, especially because of the jobs provided during construction. Nowadays, PERF is something apart from their lives because it no longer provides jobs or any other interaction between the facility and the locals. Residents relate to the land, not with the facility. However, there is no evidence of rejection towards PERF, it is simply seen as something neutral to their lives. The low levels of education, traditional lack of social commitment and citizenship, and the experience accumulated by PERF´s planners and builders in other countries, may be contributing points to the fact that Zumbi residents did not oppose to PERF. It is clear that the country needs a legislation which seriously considers the psycho-social dimension involved in the implementation of wind farms

Satisfaçã dos Usuários e a qualidade da atenção primária à saúde no Rio Grande do Norte

O presente estudo tem por objetivo avaliar a satisfação dos usuários em relação à qualidade da Atenção Primária à Saúde no Rio Grande do Norte. Trata-se de Pesquisa Avaliativa observacional transversal, com abordagem quantitativa, a qual faz parte da Avaliação Externa do Programa de Melhoria do Acesso e da Qualidade da Atenção Básica (PMAQ), da Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte. Foram utilizados dados secundários de todas as entrevistas com usuários das equipes que participaram da Avaliação Externa do PMAQ no Estado do RN. A pesquisa foi realizada em 167 municípios do Estado do Rio Grande do Norte, na qual a população foi composta por 1.650 usuários. A amostra se deu por conveniência a partir dos seguintes critérios: usuários que estavam presentes na Unidade Básica de Saúde (UBS) para realizar qualquer tipo de procedimento e que consentisse em participar da avaliação. Foram excluídos os que tinham ido pela primeira vez na unidade e aqueles que não frequentaram há mais de 12 meses. A coleta dos dados foi realizada no período de setembro a novembro de 2013. Para tanto, foi elaborado um protocolo de pesquisa contendo as seguintes dimensões: organizacional, interpessoal e estrutural. Em relação à dimensão organizacional os resultados mostram que a marcação de consultas tem se configurado em empecilho ao acesso do usuário ao serviço de saúde, uma vez que se faz necessário para o atendimento, enfrentar filas, antes da abertura da unidade para pegar fichas. No tocante ao funcionamento da unidade, se destaca o fato dos usuários referirem que o horário de funcionamento da unidade atende à suas necessidades, apesar de funcionar 5 (cinco) dias por semana, a maioria das unidades permanece fechada no horário de almoço. Outro dado importante refere-se à coordenação do cuidado, cujos resultados apresentam diferenças maiores entre os usuários da região metropolitana e do interior do Estado em relação à Capital. Essa diferença se expressa principalmente em relação de marcação de consulta com outros profissionais especialistas. A dimensão interpessoal, no que diz respeito à categorias interação usuário-serviço-equipe e vínculo, demonstraram alguns avanços, contudo os melhores resultados foram observados em relação a satisfação com o cuidado, onde mais de 50% dos usuários se mostraram satisfeitos com o cuidado recebido nas unidades. Em contrapartida, o estudo mostrou que, na opinião de 56% dos usuários da capital, a falta de materiais e equipamentos influencia negativamente no cuidado. Por fim, o estudo contribuiu para reforçar a ideia de que a avaliação da satisfação dos usuários dos serviços de saúde pode ser uma ferramenta importante para subsidiar o processo de decisão compartilhada, de forma a se repensar as práticas profissionais, reorganizar o processo de trabalho desenvolvido, realocar recursos, readequar ações e redefinir objetivos que estejam coerentes com o projeto de saúde estabelecido

Adiamento da aposentadoria e o significado do trabalho para servidores de uma universidade federal

This study investigated the intention of the older workers to continue working after state pension age/time. On this way, it explores the relation between this intention and factors related with the meanings of the work and retirement. Specifically, it was examined that factors related to work and non-work are predictors of the intention to continue working, and it was explored if meanings of retirement are linked to this decision. It is a crosssectional mixed methods study, using a survey conducted with 283 federal civil servants of a federal Northeastern University which were near retirement. It envolved an on-line questionnaire, with open-ended questions and the likert-type scale "Older Worker's Intention to Continue Working" (OWICW) of Shacklock and Brunneto (2011), which was validated to the Brazilian version. The quantitative data were analyzed using descriptive and multivariate statistics, specifically procedures for comparing means and coefficients of multiple logistic regression. The qualitative data were analyzed using the lexicographical technique Descending Hierarchical Classification. The findings indicate that most participants want to continue in paid work, and that perception of personal autonomy at work, interpersonal relationships at work, interests outside of work, and flexible working arrangements are significant predictors of intention to continue working. Furthermore, the perception of personal autonomy at work, flexible working arrangements, and the financial incentives are predictors of decision to postpone retirement and remain in the organization. The analysis revealed five patterns of meanings of retirement: "worker's right", "resting", "idle time at home", "new stage in the life course", and "enjoy the use of time”. The decision to postpone retirement is linked to idleness and lack of substitutionary activities work, and the decision to stop working linked to retirement as a life with more quality. The study provides information that can contribute with management policies before the process of retirement decision.

Serviço de nuvem pública e sua relação com os arranjos de governança de TI e o alinhamento estratégico

Increasingly, the Information Technology (IT) has been used to sustain the business strategies, causing increased its relevance. Therefore IT governance is seen as one of the priorities of organizations at the time. The search for strategic alignment between business and IT is debated as a factor for business success, but even with that importance, usually the main business managers are reluctant to take responsibility for decisions involving IT, mainly due to the complexity of your infrastructure. Since cloud computing is being seen as an element capable of assisting in the implementation of organizational strategies, because their characteristics enable greater efficiency and agility in IT, and is considered as a new computing paradigm. The main objective of the analyze the relationship between IT governance arrangements and strategic alignment with the infrastructure as a service (IaaS) of public cloud computing. Therefore, an exploratory, descriptive and inferential was developed, with approach to the problem of quantitatively research, with descriptive survey method and cross section. An electronic questionnaire that was applied to the ISACA chapters Associates of São Paulo and the Distrito Federal, totaling 164 respondents was used. The instrument used based on the theories of Weill and Ross (2006) for array of IT governance arrangement; Henderson and Venkatraman (1993) and Luftman (2000), for maturity of the strategic alignment model; and NIST (2011 b), ITGI (2007) and CSA (2010) for infrastructure maturity as a service (IaaS) public in its essential characteristics. As regards the main results, this research proved that with public IaaS decision-making structures have changed, with a greater participation of senior executives in all five key IT decisions (IT governance arrangement array) including more technical decisions as architecture and IT infrastructure. With increased participation of senior executives the decrease was also observed in the share of IT specialists, characterizing the decision process with the duopoly archetype (shared decision). With regard to strategic alignment, it was observed that it changes with cloud computing, and organizations with public IaaS, a maturity of strategic alignment with statistically significant and greater difference when compared to organizations without IaaS. The maturity of public IaaS is at the intermediate level (level 3 - "defined process"), with the elasticity and measurement achieved level 4 - "managed and measurable" It was also possible to infer in organizations with public IaaS, there are positive correlations between the key decisions and the maturity of IaaS, especially at the beginning, architecture and infrastructure, and the archetypes involving senior executives and IT specialists. In the correlation between the maturity and mature strategic alignment of public IaaS therefore the higher the strategic alignment, the greater the maturity of the public IaaS and vice versa.

Fatores de decisão da adoção do gás natural na geração de energia elétrica em pequena escala em postos de combustíveis: um estudo de anális de decusão usando o processo de hierarquia analítica AHP

A modeling of criterias and alternatives is through and applied a questionnaire based on method AHP to proprietors of gas stations. The considered alternatives had been the maintenance of the current state with electric energy of the deliverer and the generation in small scale based on the natural gas. The used criteria had been Cost of the Investment, Final Cost of the Energy, Operational cost, Ambient Benefits, Risk and Variation of Costs. The study it was carried through in the city of Natal, RN in ranks that make use of the natural as for resale, where the generation alternative on the basis of the available gas is present. The main results evidence in a dimension the viability of use of method AHP with questionnaire by means of validation of the judgments with analysis of variance beyond proper the normal mechanisms of analysis of consistency to the method. The main results of the analysis help to show that in this in case that the profile of models of criteria and judgments of the actors is similar, with the final evidence of that it has a dominance of the maintenance of the energy of the deliverer. The main criterion to influence this decision was the risk

Modelagem de decisão na seleção de equipamento: um estudo usando o processo analítico hierárquico na contratação de sondas de perfuração de poços de petróleo

The main goal of this dissertation is to develop a Multi Criteria Decision Aid Model to be used in Oils and Gas perforation rigs contracts choices. The developed model should permit the utilization of multiples criterions, covering problems that exist with models that mainly use the price of the contracts as its decision criterion. The AHP has been chosen because its large utilization, not only academic, but in many other areas, its simplicity of use and flexibility, and also fill all the requirements necessary to complete the task. The development of the model was conducted by interviews and surveys with one specialist in this specific area, who also acts as the main actor on the decision process. The final model consists in six criterions: Costs, mobility, automation, technical support, how fast the service could be concluded and availability to start the operations. Three rigs were chosen as possible solutions for the problem. The results reached by the utilizations of the model suggests that the utilization of AHP as a decision support system in this kind of situation is possible, allowing a simplifications of the problem, and also it s a useful tool to improve every one involved on the process s knowledge about the problem subject, and its possible solutions

Uma aplicação de análise de decisão com o método AHP Processo de hierarquia analítica: um estudo sobre adoção de Sistema eletrônico de cobrança no Transporte público urbano

This thesis carries through an application of Analysis of Multicriterion Decision with use of the method of Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) in the problematic one of taking of decision of the adoption of electronic collecting in the system of urban transport in the country, a subject that has been controversial. A modeling of criteria and alternatives is carried through and applied a questionnaire based on method AHP the excellent actors in the system of urban transport - Leading of the Managing Agency Public Municipal theatre of Urban Transports, Controller of Company of Bus, Controller of Labor union, Controller of Union of Companies, Communitarian Leader. The considered alternatives were: the maintenance of the current state with collectors, the implementation of electronic collection without collectors, and the implementation of electronic collection with collectors. The used criteria were: job, impact in the fare, control of the system, easiness of use, information. The study was carried through in the city of Natal, RN, where if the adoption of electronic collection argues and where this implementation in some bus lines between Natal and Parnamirim exists, city that integrates the region of the great Natal. The main results of the method evidence in a dimension, the viability of use of method AHP with questionnaire by means of validation of the judgments with analysis of variance beyond proper the normal mechanisms of analysis of consistency to the method, and in another one, the contribution of the analysis boarding multicriterion to become the judgments more clearly. The main results of the analysis help to show that although to models of criteria and distinct judgments of the actors, the method evidenced that it has inclination the adoption of the electronic collection on the current situation, even so with divergences between the maintenance or not of the collector. The research points to the possibility of accomplishment of the application of the AHP in successive rounds of judgments