Um Modelo híbrido para previsão de curvas de produção de petróleo

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior

Um Modelo híbrido para previsão de curvas de produção de petróleo

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior

Mortalidade por câncer de boca e condição sócio-econômica no Brasil

BORGES,D. M. L.et al. Mortalidade por câncer de boca e condição sócio-econômica no Brasil.Cad. Saúde Pública, Rio de Janeiro, v.25,n.2, p.321-327, fev, 2009

Comunidades virtuales y producción de inteligencia económica y competitiva

CARVALHO, Andréa Vasconcelos . Comunidades virtuales y producción de inteligencia económica y competitiva. Inteligencia y Seguridad: revista de análisis y prospectiva, v. 3, p. 13-45, 2007

Previsão do índice bovespa por meio de redes neurais artificiais: uma análise comparada aos métodos tradicionais de séries de tempo

Forecast is the basis for making strategic, tactical and operational business decisions. In financial economics, several techniques have been used to predict the behavior of assets over the past decades.Thus, there are several methods to assist in the task of time series forecasting, however, conventional modeling techniques such as statistical models and those based on theoretical mathematical models have produced unsatisfactory predictions, increasing the number of studies in more advanced methods of prediction. Among these, the Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) are a relatively new and promising method for predicting business that shows a technique that has caused much interest in the financial environment and has been used successfully in a wide variety of financial modeling systems applications, in many cases proving its superiority over the statistical models ARIMA-GARCH. In this context, this study aimed to examine whether the ANNs are a more appropriate method for predicting the behavior of Indices in Capital Markets than the traditional methods of time series analysis. For this purpose we developed an quantitative study, from financial economic indices, and developed two models of RNA-type feedfoward supervised learning, whose structures consisted of 20 data in the input layer, 90 neurons in one hidden layer and one given as the output layer (Ibovespa). These models used backpropagation, an input activation function based on the tangent sigmoid and a linear output function. Since the aim of analyzing the adherence of the Method of Artificial Neural Networks to carry out predictions of the Ibovespa, we chose to perform this analysis by comparing results between this and Time Series Predictive Model GARCH, developing a GARCH model (1.1).Once applied both methods (ANN and GARCH) we conducted the results' analysis by comparing the results of the forecast with the historical data and by studying the forecast errors by the MSE, RMSE, MAE, Standard Deviation, the Theil's U and forecasting encompassing tests. It was found that the models developed by means of ANNs had lower MSE, RMSE and MAE than the GARCH (1,1) model and Theil U test indicated that the three models have smaller errors than those of a naïve forecast. Although the ANN based on returns have lower precision indicator values than those of ANN based on prices, the forecast encompassing test rejected the hypothesis that this model is better than that, indicating that the ANN models have a similar level of accuracy . It was concluded that for the data series studied the ANN models show a more appropriate Ibovespa forecasting than the traditional models of time series, represented by the GARCH model

Modelagem e previsão da perda de injetividade em poços canhoneados

Waterflooding is a technique largely applied in the oil industry. The injected water displaces oil to the producer wells and avoid reservoir pressure decline. However, suspended particles in the injected water may cause plugging of pore throats causing formation damage (permeability reduction) and injectivity decline during waterflooding. When injectivity decline occurs it is necessary to increase the injection pressure in order to maintain water flow injection. Therefore, a reliable prediction of injectivity decline is essential in waterflooding projects. In this dissertation, a simulator based on the traditional porous medium filtration model (including deep bed filtration and external filter cake formation) was developed and applied to predict injectivity decline in perforated wells (this prediction was made from history data). Experimental modeling and injectivity decline in open-hole wells is also discussed. The injectivity of modeling showed good agreement with field data, which can be used to support plan stimulation injection wells

Avaliação ecológico-econômica do manguezal de Macau/RN e a importância da aplicação de práticas preservacionistas pela indústria petrolífera local

This work presents the results of a survey in oil-producing region of the Macau City, northern coast of Rio Grande do Norte. All work was performed under the Project for Monitoring Environmental Change and the Influence of Hydrodynamic forcing on Morphology Beach Grass Fields, Serra Potiguar in Macau, with the support of the Laboratory of Geoprocessing, linked to PRH22 - Training Program in Geology Geophysics and Information Technology Oil and Gas - Department of Geology/CCET/UFRN and the Post-Graduation in Science and Engineering Oil/PPGCEP/UFRN. Within the economic-ecological context, this paper assesses the importance of mangrove ecosystem in the region of Macau and its surroundings as well as in the following investigative exploration of potential areas for projects involving reforestation and / or Environmental Restoration. At first it was confirmed the ecological potential of mangrove forests, with primary functions: (i) protection and stabilization of the shoreline, (ii) nursery of marine life, and (iii) source of organic matter to aquatic ecosystems, (iv) refuge of species, among others. In the second phase, using Landsat imagery and techniques of Digital Image Processing (DIP), I came across about 18,000 acres of land that can be worked on environmental projects, being inserted in the rules signed the Kyoto Protocol to the market carbon. The results also revealed a total area of 14,723.75 hectares of activity of shrimp production and salting that can be harnessed for the social, economic and environmental potential of the region, considering that over 60% of this area, ie, 8,800 acres, may be used in the planting of the genus Avicennia considered by the literature that the species best sequesters atmospheric carbon, reaching a mean value of 59.79 tons / ha of mangrove

Estudo da viabilidade econômica em campos maduros

When it comes to oil and gas in Brazil is almost certain that we are referring to activities in deep waters off the coast of Campos, Rio de Janeiro, the main field of action of PETROBRAS and a small number of multinational oil companies . Since the Law 9.478/97 allows, by means of concessions, that other companies other than Petrobras, to explore and produce oil and gas domestically. Soon it moved, then the private companies that want small and medium-sized businesses to invest in such activities, forming a segment of independent producers, as occurs in other countries. In this context, this work aims at making an economic feasibility study, is currently analyzing how this thread and focus on the factors that contribute to its development as well as those that constitute barriers. To this end, we conducted a survey examining some mature fields that are in production in order to capture cost information in the phases of project, operation and abandonment. The work also presents an analysis of the results obtained in the survey, identifying the costs higher. With the results obtained through the study used economic engineering tools such as NPV and IRR, using a variety of design scenarios, to study the economic viability of these fields. In scenario 4 was set a production of 4.0 m³ / d of oil, which is an expected average production for several of these fields, whose minimum value of a barrel of oil, to enable this field, was $ 55.00, this value well below what was being practiced in the market today.

A ética econômica das classes trabalhadoras: a gramática social do comportamento econômico da nova pequena burguesia comercial de Natal/RN

Rogram relying on sociological interface between Economic Sociology, Sociology of Moral Theory of Socialization and Social Stratification, this dissertation research makes use of theoretical contributions Luic Boltanski, Charles Taylor, Axel Honneth, Pierre Bourdieu and Bernard Lahire to problematize the generally about the physical and symbolic production and social reproduction of the type of "economic ethics" predominant in the new petite bourgeoisie Brazilian. In other words, the goal is to explain and analyze the objective conditions (economic needs and moral grammar) and intersubjective (modes of socialization and social networks) and update the social genesis and contextual transcontextual beliefs, biases, inclinations and cultural regularities observed the economic behavior of individual profiles for the fractions of the urban petty bourgeoisie and commercial upward Natal / RN. With regard to methodological strategies adopted in data collection will be conducted qualitative interviews (semistructured) and ethnographic notes. In turn, the analytical treatment of the collected empirical content is based on the approach dispositionalist (Pierre Bourdieu, Loïc Wacquant and Bernard Lahire) that emphasizes the study of the past embedded agents and the different contexts of incorporation / activation / inhibition of "provisions" individual cultural

Estrutura econômica, mercado de trabalho e evolução sócio-ocupacional no Rio Grande do Norte 2001 a 2008: reflexo de uma condição mercantil e estruturalmente periférica

The aim of this thesis was to investigate the evolution of the socio-occupational status in Rio Grande do Norte from 2001 to 2008, based on the characterization of the socio-economic status of this State from the analysis of labor market norte-rio-grandense . The study, specifically, drew a comparison between the dynamics of the labor market in Rio Grande do Norte and the capital city, Natal. From this perspective, the purpose was to make a relationship between the social division of labor and its effects on the socio-spatial division, represented in the "macro scale" by the federal unit and the "micro level" for the capital; locus of economic and population concentration. The collection of data on the labor market had as a major source PNAD/IBGE, characterizing the labor market in many ways: people of working age, economically active population and employed and unemployed people, classified by age, sex, color, education, income and social protection condition. However, as for the socio-occupational division, we follow the methodology used by the research group on national television, based in IPPUR /UFRJ, called Monitoring of the Metropolis," which rallied twenty-four groups that aggregate the occupations found in the PNAD/IBGE, in eight groups of socio-occupational categories, according to the similarity between them. It was used in the socio-spatial cutting two relevant discussions, which are inter-related and were characterized as crucial points in developing the research problem: the former was related to the influence of the hegemony of merchant capital in the labor market in Rio Grande North and, the latter, it referred the socio-economic relations between the territory and the variable occupation. Lastly, the results all indicated that in Rio Grande do Norte, as a peripheral state, has suffered the devastating influence of the hegemony of capital purely commercial basis, where "wealth" of capitalism is generated through the sphere of mere movement of goods and services rather than a productive process due to the social relations of production more advanced. We have a little advanced economic structure, with a tertiary sector that has propagated under-employment or disguised unemployment. Similarly, the agricultural sector has been presented as an example of greater social degradation of working conditions in the state. The secondary sector, in turn, also was not behind this uncertainty; on the contrary, confirmed that condition, with poor levels of income, low education of the workforce and a high degree of social helplessness, even in the state capital, space full urban area, which although always appear with a favorable condition compared to Province, in practically most of the variables studied, was also reflected at the same time the author of a structurally underdeveloped condition

Ordem econômica e política nacional de recursos hídricos: hermenêutica constitucional para o desenvolvimento sustentável

This research proposes a study about the interpretative techniques application that are compatible with the national legal system under the principles for Sustainable Development characterized in Brazilian Constitution. It verifies the actual possibility of reconciliation between national development and environment protection, with reflections under the water legal protection. It was proposed, therefore, to point subsidies for jurisdictional decisions involving development and the environmental goods, protected as constitutionally guaranteed principles. It was assumed that, both development and environment protection represents basic rights that are eventually placed in conflict situations, considering the many legitimate economic activities within the Brazilian State. A representative case analysis was elected within the current national scene, detailing the judicial and political conflict involving the Transboundery water Project from the São Francisco River Basin to another Northeastern river basin in Brazil. The implementation of several constitutional principles with elements from legal hermeneutics provides subsidies for the legal analysis about the conflict between development and environmental protection. It was assumed that the main discussion item about rights due to development today is the institutions influence and their results, among them the rules, laws and interpretative elements for the constitutional text objectivity, as the institutions credibility and the Supreme Courts interpretations. The use of interpretative resources for specific conflict situations about constitutional principles by Superior Courts, on the search, would bring a contributory factor for decision safety, related to sustainable development principles, elimination of inequalities and regional protecting for the environment. Specific aspects of Law No. 9.433/97 that introduced the National Water Resources Policy were examined, with its instruments, in order to specifically contextualize aspects of the Brazilian water resources management politics

Análise econômica da expansão do direito penal

Aborda a evolução histórica das liberdades individuais, a partir de apontamentos pertinentes ao constitucionalismo liberal, à formação do Estado de Direito e ao advento dos regimes democráticos amparados em direitos fundamentais. Pretende, quanto aos direitos fundamentais, mostrar diversas classificações, funções, critérios e conceitos, além da sistematização de gerações ou dimensões de direitos. Discorre acerca da teoria dos limites aos limites, ao lado de teorias correlatas em profícua confrontação doutrinária, tudo com fins a estruturar os conceitos basilares de direitos de liberdade, que orientam o restante da obra. Trata do cenário histórico-jurídico do surgimento da Análise Econômica do Direito (AED), consistente, sobretudo, no jusrealismo norte-americano, abordado, em paralelo, com o realismo jurídico escandinavo. Aplica conceitos e premissas de microeconomia ao Direito Penal, com ênfase para a investigação do comportamento criminoso empreendida pela Economia do Crime. Avança não apenas restrito à perspectiva teórica, trazendo dados empíricos e implicações concretas da teoria econômica dos delitos e das penas, que serão reconhecidos na evolução e redução da criminalidade, nas políticas de desarmamento, na estruturação empresarial do narcotráfico, bem como na otimização da administração penitenciária brasileira a fim de concretizar o preconizado pela legislação de execução penal. Desenvolve estudo a partir da leitura histórica do Direito Penal, passando pelos conceitos de sociedade complexa e de riscos. Analisa, após fixados tais pressupostos, algumas causas do processo de expansão do Direito Penal com vistas a identificar propostas alternativas ao hiperpunitivismo hodierno, preservando-se, assim, os direitos de liberdade que sustentam o Estado Democrático de Direito. Propõe uma desconstrução do conceito jurídico do princípio da eficiência administrativa, demonstrando como seu conteúdo normativo foi demasiadamente mitigado pela recepção precária dos respectivos elementos econômicos por parte da doutrina e da jurisprudência pátria. Ressalta a importância jurídica da eficiência econômica, devidamente harmonizada com os demais princípios constitucionais, por força do instrumental analítico da AED Positiva. Investiga criticamente algumas teorias sociológicas tendentes ao funcionalismo penal, sob referenciais de eficiência e de direitos de liberdade. Almeja, ao final, propor a AED como alternativa à expansão funcionalista e irracional dos tipos e sanções criminais, de modo que a aproximação entre Economia do Crime, eficiência econômica e Direito Penal contribua para blindar os direitos de liberdade das vicissitudes típicas da sociedade contemporânea

As sanções políticas, mecanismo de intervenção do estado na ordem econômica e tributária

This work pursues to analyze the sanctions of restrictive nature, which are characterized by impeding the business of the contributor in debt. Such sanctions known as political sanctions, are truly understood as an indirect way of tax enforcement, liable to cause problems to the private entity in curtailing, the initiative freedom, opposing the Article 5°, item XIII and Article 170, single paragraph of CF/88. As the State gets the several means to assure the economic order effective performance, it is up to the State to restrain the economic power abuse that objects to the marketing domination, to the ending of competition, and arbitrary increasing of profits (CF Article 173, § 4ª.) Therefore, it depends on the state, besides maintaining the economic order, to ensure a fair distribution of tax burden and act under the command of the Democratic State of Law principles. In order to make the tax collection effective, specific in some cases, the administrative fiscal agent uses coercive, excessive, and institutional, in imposing sanctions which causes constraint, maculating the contributor s essential rights, that matters of the necessity to force the tax credit ending. The principle of the free initiative and free competition, which are intended to be analyzed in this study, comes from a constitutional context and it will be reviewed in its systematic relations and with another rules, in order to evidence, at the end, the occurrence of an intervention towards the economic order when the State makes do of political sanctions as a tool for the tax credit effectiveness, infringing the Tax and Constitutional principles

Democracia participativa e regulação econômica: uma questão de legitimidade

This work presents an analysis about the legitimation of independent regulatory commission`s rulemaking power by participation procedure. It is observed that political and administrative decentralization and fragmentation of State, with the purpose of approaching citizens and provide, more efficiently, the functions acquired by the passage of the Welfare State, leads to a deficit of legitimacy (democratic crisis), which is noticeable in the making of legal norms by directors of independent regulatory commission to regulate specific economic sector. However, we understand that this crisis stems from the observation of the contemporary world from dogmas and legal institutions of the eighteenth century, without their evolution and adaptation to the modern world. The legitimacy must be perceived as the justification of power, relation command /obedience, which, from the Modern State, has the democracy as standard. Therefore, just as the world has evolved and demanded political and administrative decentralization to accompany him, it is necessary to the development of the idea of representative democracy (formal legitimacy) to participatory democracy (legitimacy stuff). Legitimacy is not confused with the legality: as the legality is on observance to internal legal system, the "rules of play"; legitimacy, as inputs to be fed into this system, the selection of the different expectations in the environment. Nevertheless, the legitimacy will take place by legality, through introduction of rational and communicative procedures: procedures get fundamental importance because these will be the means to select the expectations to be introduced in the legal system in order to make decisions more fair, rational and qualified towards society. Thus, it is necessary to its opening to the environment for dialogue with the government. In this context, we try to make an analysis of constitutional norms based on systematic and teleological interpretation of these norms to build these arguments. According to the Constitution of 1988, participatory democracy is a result of the democratic principle (sole paragraph of art. 1 of the Constitution), and it is an expression of citizenship and political pluralism, both foundations of Republic (respectively Art. 1st, inc . V and II of the Constitution), as well as the national consciousness. From another point of view, that principle consists of an evolution in the management public affairs (principle of Republic). The right of interested participate in the rulemaking process derives both the principle of popular participation (part of the democratic principle) and the republican principle as the due process constitutional (art. 5, LIV and LV, CF/88) and the right to petition (Art . 5 °, inc. XXXIV, "a", CF/88), and it is the duty of the State not only be open to participation and encourage it. Ignoring stakeholder involvement in procedures and / or expressions compiled can be causes of invalidation of the rule of law produced by addiction of procedure, motive, motivation and/or because of the administrative act. Finally, we conclude that the involvement of stakeholders in the process of making rules within the independent regulatory commission is the legitimacy and the validity of rules; and that, despite of the expressions do not bind the decision making, they will enter the system as juridical fact, balancing the field of technical discretionary of agencies

A alteração do tipo penal de adulteração de combustíveis: reflexo da constitucionalização do direito penal no mercado de combustíveis

The neoconstitutionalism led to a process of ethical revaluation of the normative systems and the process of constitutionalization of the many fields of law. This study examines the consequences of this process in criminal law, so important a Law field for the protection of the most valuable assets by the society, including the fundamental guarantees, thus emphasizing the necessity of protection of the collective and individual rights, which are guided by the observance of the defendants individual rights in the course of criminal proceedings and the search for the best efficiency of penal protection, according to the corollaries of defense against the state (prohibition of the excess or Übermassverbot) and the provision of rights by the state (prohibition of insufficient protection or Untermassverbot). The offense of fuel adulteration is taken as an object of study, since it is a vital market to a nation dependent of people and good s movement for their living, driven by fossil and biofuels. Such a crime affects essential legal interests to the development of society, interests such as the environment, consumer relations and economic order, particularly the principle of free competition. This paper seeks to analyze the need of a greater efficiency of this particular criminal protection, once concluded the conduct harm and social fear as a consequence by it as growing, and therefore having its former crime type, engraved in Article 1 of Law No. 8.176/1991, rewritten in compliance with the criminal law s principle of legality. Thus, the reformation proposals and legislative creation involving this crime were observed, with emphasis on the bill No. 2498/2003, which keeps it as blank heterogeneous criminal norm, kind of penal normative whose constitutionality is raised, including the forethought of criminal responsibility in the perpetrating of the offense as culpable and subsequently increasing the applicable minimum penalty, as well as the inclusion of new activities in the typical nucleus