Modelo de covariância bayesiana para seleção de protfólios de investimentos

The portfolio theory is a field of study devoted to investigate the decision-making by investors of resources. The purpose of this process is to reduce risk through diversification and thus guarantee a return. Nevertheless, the classical Mean-Variance has been criticized regarding its parameters and it is observed that the use of variance and covariance has sensitivity to the market and parameter estimation. In order to reduce the estimation errors, the Bayesian models have more flexibility in modeling, capable of insert quantitative and qualitative parameters about the behavior of the market as a way of reducing errors. Observing this, the present study aimed to formulate a new matrix model using Bayesian inference as a way to replace the covariance in the MV model, called MCB - Covariance Bayesian model. To evaluate the model, some hypotheses were analyzed using the method ex post facto and sensitivity analysis. The benchmarks used as reference were: (1) the classical Mean Variance, (2) the Bovespa index's market, and (3) in addition 94 investment funds. The returns earned during the period May 2002 to December 2009 demonstrated the superiority of MCB in relation to the classical model MV and the Bovespa Index, but taking a little more diversifiable risk that the MV. The robust analysis of the model, considering the time horizon, found returns near the Bovespa index, taking less risk than the market. Finally, in relation to the index of Mao, the model showed satisfactory, return and risk, especially in longer maturities. Some considerations were made, as well as suggestions for further work

Caracterização comportamental e distribuição de neurônios inibitórios em um modelo animal de autismo induzido por ácido valpróico

Autism comprises a heterogeneous group of neurodevelopmental disorders that affects the brain maturation and produces sensorial, motor, language and social interaction deficits in early childhood. Several studies have shown a major involvement of genetic factors leading to a predisposition to autism, which are possibly affected by environmental modulators during embryonic and post-natal life. Recent studies in animal models indicate that alterations in epigenetic control during development can generate neuronal maturation disturbances and produce a hyper-excitable circuit, resulting in typical symptoms of autism. In the animal model of autism induced by valproic acid (VPA) during rat pregnancy, behavioral, electrophysiological and cellular alterations have been reported which can also be observed in patients with autism. However, only a few studies have correlated behavioral alterations with the supposed neuronal hyper-excitability in this model. The aim of this project was to generate an animal model of autism by pre-natal exposure to VPA and evaluate the early post-natal development and pre-puberal (PND30) behavior in the offspring. Furthermore, we quantified the parvalbumin-positive neuronal distribution in the medial prefrontal cortex and Purkinje cells in the cerebellum of VPA animals. Our results show that VPA treatment induced developmental alterations, which were observed in behavioral changes as compared to vehicle-treated controls. VPA animals showed clear behavioral abnormalities such as hyperlocomotion, prolonged stereotipies and reduced social interaction with an unfamiliar mate. Cellular quantification revealed a decrease in the number of parvalbumin-positive interneurons in the anterior cingulate cortex and in the prelimbic cortex of the mPFC, suggesting an excitatory/inhibitory unbalance in this animal model of autism. Moreover, we also observed that the neuronal reduction occurred mainly in the cortical layers II/III and V/VI. We did not detect any change in the density of Purkinje neurons in the Crus I region of the cerebellar cortex. Together, our results strengthens the face validity of the VPA model in rats and shed light on specific changes in the inhibitory circuitry of the prefrontal cortex in this autism model. Further studies should address the challenges to clarify particular electrophysiological correlates of the cellular alterations in order to better understand the behavioral dysfunctions

Efeitos da estimulação ambiental sobre os aspectos motores, cognitivos e neuronais em um modelo farmacológico progressivo da doença de Parkinson

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