Desempenho de analistas sell-side no mercado de ações brasileiro

The purpose of this study was to analyze the behavior of Sell-Side analysts and analysts propose a classification, considering the performance of the price forecasts and recom- mendations (sell-hold-buy) in the Brazilian stock market. For this, the first step was to analyze the consensus of analysts to understand the importance of this collective interven- tion in the market; the second was to analyze the analysts individually to understand how improve their analysis in time. Third was to understand how are the main methods of ranking used in markets. Finally, propose a form of classification that reflects the previous aspects discussed. To investigate the hypotheses proposed in the study were used linear models for panel to capture elements in time. The data of price forecasts and analyst recommendations individually and consensus, in the period 2005-2013 were obtained from Bloomberg R ○ . The main results were: (i) superior performance of consensus recommen- dations, compared with the individual analyzes; (ii) associating the number of analysts issuing recommendations with improved accuracy allows supposing that this number may be associated with increased consensus strength and hence accuracy; (iii) the anchoring effect of the analysts consensus revisions makes his predictions are biased, overvaluating the assets; (iv) analysts need to have greater caution in times of economic turbulence, noting also foreign markets such as the USA. For these may result changes in bias between optimism and pessimism; (v) effects due to changes in bias, as increased pessimism can cause excessive increase in purchase recommendations number. In this case, analysts can should be more cautious in analysis, mainly for consistency between recommendation and the expected price; (vi) the experience of the analyst with the asset economic sector and the asset contributes to the improvement of forecasts, however, the overall experience showed opposite evidence; (vii) the optimism associated with the overall experience, over time, shows a similar behavior to an excess of confidence, which could cause reduction of accuracy; (viii) the conflicting effect of general experience between the accuracy and the observed return shows evidence that, over time, the analyst has effects similar to the endowment bias on assets, which would result in a conflict analysis of recommendations and forecasts ; (ix) despite the focus on fewer sectors contribute to the quality of accuracy, the same does not occur with the focus on assets. So it is possible that analysts may have economies of scale when cover more assets within the same industry; and finally, (x) was possible to develop a proposal for classification analysts to consider both returns and the consistency of these predictions, called Analysis coefficient. This ranking resulted better results, considering the return / standard deviation.

Gestão híbrida em cooperativa de crédito: uma análise a partir do interesse, participação, satisfação e expectativa dos cooperados da COOPERUFPA

The globalization of markets has confirmed for the processes of change in organizations both in structure and in management. This dynamic was also observed in credit unions because they are financial institutions and are under the rules of the Brazil´s Financial System. Given the context of organizational changes in the financial capital has played the traditional management reform is urgent. In organizations credit unions, given its dual purpose, because in the same organizational environment and capitalism coexist cooperative whose logics are antagonistic, but can live through the balance between instrumental rationality and substantive rationality in credit unions. Based on this concept a new form of management should be thought to be able to accommodate the demand of cooperative, community, government and the market. Hybridization has been observed in management practices` COOPERUFPA into dimensions financial, social and solidarity participation with a trend in paradigmatic form of hybrid management, in that it directly or indirectly affect the management decisions in the credit union. The hybrid management is a trend that has been setting the basis for societal transformation, so that credit unions promote actions of welfare oriented cooperative members and the community around the same time that attend the dynamics of market globalization. These actions, in the context of hybrid management should be implemented by COOPERUFPA from the sociability of the remains and the wide diffusion of solidarity culture between cooperative partnership as a way to recover their participation in trade relations, financial and the social collective developement. For the members of COOPERUFPA financial interest is evidenced in greater relevance for the social interest given its dominant relationship as "mere customer" of the credit union, however, the proactive participation of the life of the cooperative credit union is one of its expectative among of participation of to share power in decisions by general meetings. This passivity`s cooperator of the COOPERUFPA in defending the ideals overshadowed the spread of cooperative principles and values of cooperation among them. Thus his conception for COOPERUFPA in the financial dimension, social and solidarity democracy, performed transversely. The COOPERUFPA for not developing an education policy for the cooperation among its members, contributed to a process of collective alienation of cooperative ideals, since the cooperative do not understand the reality that surrounds them as members of an organization whose mission is to social and financial sustainability of its members

Gestão híbrida em cooperativa de crédito: uma análise a partir do interesse, participação, satisfação e expectativa dos cooperados da COOPERUFPA

The globalization of markets has confirmed for the processes of change in organizations both in structure and in management. This dynamic was also observed in credit unions because they are financial institutions and are under the rules of the Brazil´s Financial System. Given the context of organizational changes in the financial capital has played the traditional management reform is urgent. In organizations credit unions, given its dual purpose, because in the same organizational environment and capitalism coexist cooperative whose logics are antagonistic, but can live through the balance between instrumental rationality and substantive rationality in credit unions. Based on this concept a new form of management should be thought to be able to accommodate the demand of cooperative, community, government and the market. Hybridization has been observed in management practices` COOPERUFPA into dimensions financial, social and solidarity participation with a trend in paradigmatic form of hybrid management, in that it directly or indirectly affect the management decisions in the credit union. The hybrid management is a trend that has been setting the basis for societal transformation, so that credit unions promote actions of welfare oriented cooperative members and the community around the same time that attend the dynamics of market globalization. These actions, in the context of hybrid management should be implemented by COOPERUFPA from the sociability of the remains and the wide diffusion of solidarity culture between cooperative partnership as a way to recover their participation in trade relations, financial and the social collective developement. For the members of COOPERUFPA financial interest is evidenced in greater relevance for the social interest given its dominant relationship as "mere customer" of the credit union, however, the proactive participation of the life of the cooperative credit union is one of its expectative among of participation of to share power in decisions by general meetings. This passivity`s cooperator of the COOPERUFPA in defending the ideals overshadowed the spread of cooperative principles and values of cooperation among them. Thus his conception for COOPERUFPA in the financial dimension, social and solidarity democracy, performed transversely. The COOPERUFPA for not developing an education policy for the cooperation among its members, contributed to a process of collective alienation of cooperative ideals, since the cooperative do not understand the reality that surrounds them as members of an organization whose mission is to social and financial sustainability of its members

Entre o mercado e a construção social: uma análise da experiência da implantação doPRONAF-infraestrutura e PRONAT nos territórios do Mato Grande-RN e sertão do Apodi-RN (1997 - 2010)

Analyzes the development experience in the Territories of Mato Grande and Sertão do Apodi in the state of Rio Grande do Norte, evaluating the actions of the National Program for Strengthening Family Agriculture, specifically the line of infrastructure (PRONAF-INFRA), and the National Program for Sustainable Development of Rural Territories (PRONAT) in these territories. Summarizes the various rural development approaches and takes the theoretical assumptions of territorial development, the concept of constructed territory and market-plan territory, further the cycle model to analyze public policies selected these experiences. Thus, we propose to test the hypothesis that most of the actions implemented would lead to the formation of market-plan territories, in other words, perceived only as a platform for the presentation of projects. The literature and documents, combined with case studies, interviews and direct observation of the meetings of committees, showed that, despite two boards are under the same laws, rules and formal regulations, have clear differences when considering the theory and concepts that were used as reference. The Apodi s territory is closer to a constructed space thus the search for a broader agenda, more autonomous and more appropriate to the reality experienced by local actors. On other hand the Territory of Mato Grande had the characteristics of a market-plan territory more present. As the result, the territory of Sertão do Apodi accesses not only as part of a greater number of policies and funding sources, ensuring a greater and more diverse investment volume than the territory of Mato Grande. Despite these differences, studies have shown that territorial boards surveyed are still far from becoming the main forum for managing the development from conception planning socially constructed. Showed, finally, that territorial development strategy is relevant, but requires a long walk and a deep and continuous learning process to be successfully implemented in rural areas of Northeast Brazil

Fusões e aquisições no Brasil: análise dos efeitos em mercado de capitais

This study investigated the impact caused by events horizontal mergers and acquisitions (M&As) horizontal, in the stock returns of the participating companies and competitors regarding the creation or destruction of value for those firms in Brazil, from 2001 to 2012. For this, first was used the event study methodology to estimate abnormal returns in stock prices; after was conducted an analysis multiple regression. The results of the event study showed that using sub-periods for the data, before and after the crisis period, the effects were different for the target-before negative, after positive. Regarding the acquirer and competitors, the results were constant. For acquirer firms, the returns were close to zero, while for the competitors were negative. Furthermore, the regression results regarding the bidder showed that firms invested in processes of M&As to obtain a further increase its efficiency. Furthermore, this study indicated that the leverage of the bidder plays is important for creating value in acquisitions, when they has a higher Tobin’s Q. The results of target firms showed that a small firm had a better return than large firm did.

Análise comparativa e teste empírico da validade dos modelos CAPM tradicional e condicional: o caso das ações da Petrobrás

ALVES, Janaína da Silva. Análise comparativa e teste empírico da validade dos modelos CAPM tradicional e condicional: o caso das ações da Petrobrás. Revista Ciências Administrativas, Fotaleza, v. 13, n. 1, p.147-157, ago. 2007.

Análise da sobre-reação e sub-reação nos ativos de primeira e segunda lina do mercado acionário brasileiro

The Behavioral Finance develop as it is perceived anomalies in these markets efficient. This fields of study can be grouped into three major groups: heuristic bias, tying the shape and inefficient markets. The present study focuses on issues concerning the heuristics of representativeness and anchoring. This study aimed to identify the then under-reaction and over-reaction, as well as the existence of symmetry in the active first and second line of the Brazilian stock market. For this, it will be use the Fuzzy Logic and the indicators that classify groups studied from the Discriminant Analysis. The highest present, indicator in the period studied, was the Liabilities / Equity, demonstrating the importance of the moment to discriminate the assets to be considered "winners" and "losers." Note that in the MLCX biases over-reaction is concentrated in the period of financial crisis, and in the remaining periods of statistically significant biases, are obtained by sub-reactions. The latter would be in times of moderate levels of uncertainty. In the Small Caps the behavioral responses in 2005 and 2007 occur in reverse to those observed in the Mid-Large Cap. Now in times of crisis would have a marked conservatism while near the end of trading on the Bovespa speaker, accompanied by an increase of negotiations, there is an overreaction by investors. The other heuristics in SMLL occurred at the end of the period studied, this being a under-reaction and the other a over-reaction and the second occurring in a period of financial-economic more positive than the first. As regards the under / over-reactivity in both types, there is detected a predominance of either, which probably be different in the context in MLCX without crisis. For the period in which such phenomena occur in a statistically significant to note that, in most cases, such phenomena occur during the periods for MLCX while in SMLL not only biases are less present as there is no concentration of these at any time . Given the above, it is believed that while detecting the presence of bias behavior at certain times, these do not tend to appear to a specific type or heuristics and while there were some indications of a seasonal pattern in Mid- Large Caps, the same behavior does not seem to be repeated in Small Caps. The tests would then suggest that momentary failures in the Efficient Market Hypothesis when tested in semistrong form as stated by Behavioral Finance. This result confirms the theory by stating that not only rationality, but also human irrationality, is limited because it would act rationally in many circumstances

análise experimental do efeito da diversificação em carteiras de ações: a relação entre risco e quantidade de ativos sob a ótica da estratégia ingênua

The objective is to analyze the relationship between risk and number of stocks of a portfolio for an individual investor when stocks are chosen by "naive strategy". For this, we carried out an experiment in which individuals select actions to reproduce this relationship. 126 participants were informed that the risk of first choice would be an asset average of all standard deviations of the portfolios consist of a single asset, and the same procedure should be used for portfolios composed of two, three and so on, up to 30 actions . They selected the assets they want in their portfolios without the support of a financial analysis. For comparison we also tested a hypothetical simulation of 126 investors who selected shares the same universe, through a random number generator. Thus, each real participant is compensated for random hypothetical investor facing the same opportunity. Patterns were observed in the portfolios of individual participants, characterizing the curves for the components of the samples. Because these groupings are somewhat arbitrary, it was used a more objective measure of behavior: a simple linear regression for each participant, in order to predict the variance of the portfolio depending on the number of assets. In addition, we conducted a pooled regression on all observations by analyzing cross-section. The result of pattern occurs on average but not for most individuals, many of which effectively "de-diversify" when adding seemingly random bonds. Furthermore, the results are slightly worse using a random number generator. This finding challenges the belief that only a small number of titles is necessary for diversification and shows that there is only applicable to a large sample. The implications are important since many individual investors holding few stocks in their portfolios

Análise de volatilidade, integração de preços e previsibilidade para o mercado brasileiro de camarão

The present paper has the purpose of investigate the dynamics of the volatility structure in the shrimp prices in the Brazilian fish market. Therefore, a description of the initial aspects of the shrimp price series was made. From this information, statistics tests were made and selected univariate models to be price predictors. Then, it was verified the existence of relationship of long-term equilibrium between the Brazilian and American imported shrimp and if, confirmed the relationship, whether or not there is a causal link between these assets, considering that the two countries had presented trade relations over the years. It is presented as an exploratory research of applied nature with quantitative approach. The database was collected through direct contact with the Companhia de Entrepostos e Armazéns Gerais de São Paulo (CEAGESP) and on the official website of American import, National Marine Fisheries Service - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NMFS- NOAA). The results showed that the great variability in the active price is directly related with the gain and loss of the market agents. The price series presents a strong seasonal and biannual effect. The average structure of price of shrimp in the last 12 years was R$ 11.58 and external factors besides the production and marketing (U.S. antidumping, floods and pathologies) strongly affected the prices. Among the tested models for predicting prices of shrimp, four were selected, which through the prediction methodologies of one step forward of horizon 12, proved to be statistically more robust. It was found that there is weak evidence of long-term equilibrium between the Brazilian and American shrimp, where equivalently, was not found a causal link between them. We concluded that the dynamic pricing of commodity shrimp is strongly influenced by external productive factors and that these phenomena cause seasonal effects in the prices. There is no relationship of long-term stability between the Brazilian and American shrimp prices, but it is known that Brazil imports USA production inputs, which somehow shows some dependence productive. To the market agents, the risk of interferences of the external prices cointegrated to Brazilian is practically inexistent. Through statistical modeling is possible to minimize the risk and uncertainty embedded in the fish market, thus, the sales and marketing strategies for the Brazilian shrimp can be consolidated and widespread

Análise da gestão da cadeia de suprimentos de um supermercado varejista através da utilização do modelo SCOR

In the last decade the complexity of the environment in which organizations are embedded increased dramatically, having on one side the increasingly demanding consumers in regard to the quality and value of the product and the other companies with the need to reduce operating costs in order to achieve greater profitability, without this there is a downturn in growth or market share powers. In this context the necessity of effectively structuring actions relating to the line with the operational work processes so that business objectives are achieved organizational strategic planning, ensuring the competitiveness of the organization. This study aims to analyze how you have made the management of the supply chain in a grocery retailer in the light of guidelines of Supply Chain Management by using the SCOR model. For realization of this study a survey was needed, classified according to their goals, exploratory and descriptive as to its procedure, document, field and case study. Thus, the processing of data will be qualitative merit, using the thematic categorical analysis of Bardin (1977). Thus, to obtain data interviews together the operational and strategic management of a company that was named Supermarket Omega were performed. After analyzing the information obtained is perceived that there is an effort of the organization enhance its management of the supply chain. However, there is a lack of alignment between the various areas that compose it. About their work processes, we stress that the focus of the company is still very directed on sailing than profitability, although it is undergoing a transformation in its organizational culture However, records the existence of many improvement projects in developing. Thus, it can be noticed that there is some consistency between the assumptions of the SCOR model and applied within the supply chain Omega Supermarket, although a greater effort to better align with the model still needs to be studied

Uma metodologia para a análise do desempenho sustentável dos postos de revenda de combustível na cidade de Natal/RN, com o uso de data envelopment analysis-DEA

The increasing use of fossil fuels in line with cities demographic explosion carries out to huge environmental impact in society. For mitigate these social impacts, regulatory requirements have positively influenced the environmental consciousness of society, as well as, the strategic behavior of businesses. Along with this environmental awareness, the regulatory organs have conquered and formulated new laws to control potentially polluting activities, mostly in the gas stations sector. Seeking for increasing market competitiveness, this sector needs to quickly respond to internal and external pressures, adapting to the new standards required in a strategic way to get the Green Badge . Gas stations have incorporated new strategies to attract and retain new customers whom present increasingly social demand. In the social dimension, these projects help the local economy by generating jobs and income distribution. In this survey, the present research aims to align the social, economic and environmental dimensions to set the sustainable performance indicators at Gas Stations sector in the city of Natal/RN. The Sustainable Balanced Scorecard (SBSC) framework was create with a set of indicators for mapping the production process of gas stations. This mapping aimed at identifying operational inefficiencies through multidimensional indicators. To carry out this research, was developed a system for evaluating the sustainability performance with application of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) through a quantitative method approach to detect system s efficiency level. In order to understand the systemic complexity, sub organizational processes were analyzed by the technique Network Data Envelopment Analysis (NDEA) figuring their micro activities to identify and diagnose the real causes of overall inefficiency. The sample size comprised 33 Gas stations and the conceptual model included 15 indicators distributed in the three dimensions of sustainability: social, environmental and economic. These three dimensions were measured by means of classical models DEA-CCR input oriented. To unify performance score of individual dimensions, was designed a unique grouping index based upon two means: arithmetic and weighted. After this, another analysis was performed to measure the four perspectives of SBSC: learning and growth, internal processes, customers, and financial, unifying, by averaging the performance scores. NDEA results showed that no company was assessed with excellence in sustainability performance. Some NDEA higher efficiency Gas Stations proved to be inefficient under certain perspectives of SBSC. In the sequence, a comparative sustainable performance and assessment analyzes among the gas station was done, enabling entrepreneurs evaluate their performance in the market competitors. Diagnoses were also obtained to support the decision making of entrepreneurs in improving the management of organizational resources and promote guidelines the regulators. Finally, the average index of sustainable performance was 69.42%, representing the efforts of the environmental suitability of the Gas station. This results point out a significant awareness of this segment, but it still needs further action to enhance sustainability in the long term

Trajetória dos assentamentos rurais financiados pelo crédito fundiário no estado do Rio Grande do Norte: uma análise da experiência do assentamento da fazenda Paz no município de Maxaranguape/RN

The market-assisted land reform (RAAM) has been constituted as an alternative of agrarian reform funded by the Programa Nacional do Crédito Fundiário (PNCF). It is a policy of acquisition, distribution and use of Earth ideologically disseminated and funded by the World Bank in the context of productive insertion of landless workers. Accordingly, this study seeks to analyze the trajectory of rural settlements financed by this policy, seeking to understand what factors promote or limit the process of rural development of those settlements. To do so, take as a reference case study of the Assentamento da Fazenda Paz, in the municipality of Maxaranguape in the State of Rio Grande do Norte. From the methodological point of view, bibliographical and documentary research were used, in addition to visits to the settlement and semi-structured interviews with the settlers, trade union leaders, consultants and technicians linked to the project. Assuming the reports of respondents, initially constructs the hypothesis that informal and formal institutions present in the Assentamento da Fazenda Paz were unable to effectively coordinate the actions of the agents. The results obtained showed the existence of a very complex undertaking, with a total area of 607 hectares and 80 families settled, endowed with good quality water and irrigation infrastructure, with assets of approximately R$ 5 million reais. Experience experienced by the settlers understood the development of complex systems of production and marketing of fruits and vegetables, with an emphasis on the cultivation of papaya in an area of 45 hectares based on modern irrigation system and extensive use of technology. Collective management of production, marketing, revenue and costs stood out as a major challenge for the settlers and their representative organisations, i.e. the Community Association and the cooperative. From this observation it was possible to identify two moments on the trajectory of the project: the first, between 2007-2011, considered by respondents as successful, in which the integration of public policies and abundant input of revenue from the commercialization of the fruits da Paz, mainly through the sale of papaya and pineapple in national and international markets, allowed an average remuneration of R$ 800.00 reais to R$ 1,000 reais seated/monthIn addition to the production of vegetables and other types of products for sale and consumption; the second, from 2012, characterized as a failure, due to the discontinuity of the cultivation, production and marketing of fruits based on the collective bargaining model deployed. Important factors explain the discontinuity of the project, including the model of agriculture implemented, difficulties related to the management of production, marketing and finance the venture, in addition to the breach of trust between the Board of the cooperative and the associates and the distancing of the governmental organizations more directly responsible for the project. It is therefore concluded that we must to rethink rural development as a multidimensional phenomenon, requiring a broad engagement between State and society under the foundations of a territorial development contract

Análise de retorno de escala e tamanho do mercado no desempenho de equipes de vendas aplicando análise de envoltória de dados DEA: um estudo em empresa de Telecomunicações no Brasil

This Master s Thesis proposes the application of Data Envelopment Analysis DEA to evaluate the performance of sales teams, based on a study of their coverage areas. Data was collected from the company contracted to distribute the products in the state of Ceará. Analyses of thirteen sales coverage areas were performed considering first the output-oriented constant return to scale method (CCR-O), then this method with assurance region (AR-O-C) and finally the method of variable returns to scale with assurance region (AR-O-V). The method used in the first approach is shown to be inappropriate for this study, since it inconveniently generates zero-valued weights, allowing that an area under evaluation obtain the maximal score by not producing. Using weight restrictions, through the assurance region methods AR-O-C and AR-O-V, decreasing returns to scale are identified, meaning that the improvement in performance is not proportional to the size of the areas being analyzed. Observing data generated by the analysis, a study is carried out, aiming to design improvement goals for the inefficient areas. Complementing this study, GDP data for each area was compared with scores obtained using AR-O-V analysis. The results presented in this work show that DEA is a useful methodology for assessing sales team performance and that it may contribute to improvements on the quality of the management process.

A gestão do conhecimento e a inovação tecnológica como fatores de sobrevivência e de competitividade na sociedade do conhecimento: uma análise exploratória das MPEs do Rio Grande do Norte

The study examines the process of Knowledge Management and Technological Innovation in Small and Micro Enterprises (SME) in Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil, and proposes actions that can contribute to regional development and competitiveness of SME. Presents as technological innovation can help to make the SME entrepreneurial activities with innovative and competitive. Defines the phases and activities of the construction of knowledge in small organizations. Examines the process of Innovation, Research and Development (R & D) in SME. Identifies the use of knowledge management and technological innovation in management practices and social interaction to influence the competitiveness of SME. Covers the communities of practice as a diffuser of knowledge and learning. To obtain the data were used questionnaires with closed questions with multiple choice, direct observations and interviews with companies. The questionnaires and interviews covered the topics of Innovation, Knowledge Management and Competitive Intelligence on SME. The sample consisted of a total of 13 Small and Micro Enterprises Award winning MPE Brazil Competitiveness, sponsored by SEBRAE in the State of Rio Grande do Norte. The assessment questionnaires dealing with the Knowledge Management (KM Diagnostics - Model Bukowitz and Williams, 2002) and the process of Technological Innovation (Adaptation of ANPEI - National Association for Research, Development and Engineering of Innovative Companies). With the analysis, we concluded that the SME perceive knowledge management, but not formalized management practices so as to facilitate the dissemination of information. Soon, these companies need additional supports to direct them to the innovative activities that generate added value and competitiveness in the market

A influência da gestão do conhecimento nas companhias brasileiras com melhor governança corporativa: uma análise nas empresas classificadas pelo Investor Relations Global Rankings

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