17 resultados para Melhoria em previsões de regressões

em Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte(UFRN)


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The purpose of this study was to analyze the behavior of Sell-Side analysts and analysts propose a classification, considering the performance of the price forecasts and recom- mendations (sell-hold-buy) in the Brazilian stock market. For this, the first step was to analyze the consensus of analysts to understand the importance of this collective interven- tion in the market; the second was to analyze the analysts individually to understand how improve their analysis in time. Third was to understand how are the main methods of ranking used in markets. Finally, propose a form of classification that reflects the previous aspects discussed. To investigate the hypotheses proposed in the study were used linear models for panel to capture elements in time. The data of price forecasts and analyst recommendations individually and consensus, in the period 2005-2013 were obtained from Bloomberg R ○ . The main results were: (i) superior performance of consensus recommen- dations, compared with the individual analyzes; (ii) associating the number of analysts issuing recommendations with improved accuracy allows supposing that this number may be associated with increased consensus strength and hence accuracy; (iii) the anchoring effect of the analysts consensus revisions makes his predictions are biased, overvaluating the assets; (iv) analysts need to have greater caution in times of economic turbulence, noting also foreign markets such as the USA. For these may result changes in bias between optimism and pessimism; (v) effects due to changes in bias, as increased pessimism can cause excessive increase in purchase recommendations number. In this case, analysts can should be more cautious in analysis, mainly for consistency between recommendation and the expected price; (vi) the experience of the analyst with the asset economic sector and the asset contributes to the improvement of forecasts, however, the overall experience showed opposite evidence; (vii) the optimism associated with the overall experience, over time, shows a similar behavior to an excess of confidence, which could cause reduction of accuracy; (viii) the conflicting effect of general experience between the accuracy and the observed return shows evidence that, over time, the analyst has effects similar to the endowment bias on assets, which would result in a conflict analysis of recommendations and forecasts ; (ix) despite the focus on fewer sectors contribute to the quality of accuracy, the same does not occur with the focus on assets. So it is possible that analysts may have economies of scale when cover more assets within the same industry; and finally, (x) was possible to develop a proposal for classification analysts to consider both returns and the consistency of these predictions, called Analysis coefficient. This ranking resulted better results, considering the return / standard deviation.

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Forecast is the basis for making strategic, tactical and operational business decisions. In financial economics, several techniques have been used to predict the behavior of assets over the past decades.Thus, there are several methods to assist in the task of time series forecasting, however, conventional modeling techniques such as statistical models and those based on theoretical mathematical models have produced unsatisfactory predictions, increasing the number of studies in more advanced methods of prediction. Among these, the Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) are a relatively new and promising method for predicting business that shows a technique that has caused much interest in the financial environment and has been used successfully in a wide variety of financial modeling systems applications, in many cases proving its superiority over the statistical models ARIMA-GARCH. In this context, this study aimed to examine whether the ANNs are a more appropriate method for predicting the behavior of Indices in Capital Markets than the traditional methods of time series analysis. For this purpose we developed an quantitative study, from financial economic indices, and developed two models of RNA-type feedfoward supervised learning, whose structures consisted of 20 data in the input layer, 90 neurons in one hidden layer and one given as the output layer (Ibovespa). These models used backpropagation, an input activation function based on the tangent sigmoid and a linear output function. Since the aim of analyzing the adherence of the Method of Artificial Neural Networks to carry out predictions of the Ibovespa, we chose to perform this analysis by comparing results between this and Time Series Predictive Model GARCH, developing a GARCH model (1.1).Once applied both methods (ANN and GARCH) we conducted the results' analysis by comparing the results of the forecast with the historical data and by studying the forecast errors by the MSE, RMSE, MAE, Standard Deviation, the Theil's U and forecasting encompassing tests. It was found that the models developed by means of ANNs had lower MSE, RMSE and MAE than the GARCH (1,1) model and Theil U test indicated that the three models have smaller errors than those of a naïve forecast. Although the ANN based on returns have lower precision indicator values than those of ANN based on prices, the forecast encompassing test rejected the hypothesis that this model is better than that, indicating that the ANN models have a similar level of accuracy . It was concluded that for the data series studied the ANN models show a more appropriate Ibovespa forecasting than the traditional models of time series, represented by the GARCH model

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This thesis has as objective presents a methodology to evaluate the behavior of the corrosion inhibitors sodium nitrite, sodium dichromate and sodium molybdate, as well as your mixture, the corrosion process for the built-in steel in the reinforced concrete, through different techniques electrochemical, as well as the mechanical properties of that concrete non conventional. The addition of the inhibitors was studied in the concrete in the proportions from 0.5 to 3.5 % regarding the cement mass, isolated or in the mixture, with concrete mixture proportions of 1.0:1.5:2.5 (cement, fine aggregate and coarse aggregate), superplasticizers 2.0 % and 0.40 water/cement ratio. In the modified concrete resistance rehearsals they were accomplished to the compression, consistence and the absorption of water, while to analyze the built-in steel in the concrete the rehearsals of polarization curves they were made. They were also execute, rehearsals of corrosion potential and polarization resistance with intention of diagnose the beginning of the corrosion of the armors inserted in body-of-proof submitted to an accelerated exhibition in immersion cycle and drying to the air. It was concluded, that among the studied inhibitors sodium nitrite , in the proportion of 2.0 % in relation to the mass of the cement, presented the best capacity of protection of the steel through all the studied techniques and that the methodology and the monitoring techniques used in this work, they were shown appropriate to evaluate the behavior and the efficiency of the inhibitors

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The aging population and individual have been the subject of a multitude of studies nowadays. This is probably due to the impact of this phenomenon in various sectors of society, like social security, social assistance and public health. The process of aging of the individual imply the demand for specific services, considering the limitations and vulnerabilities of the individual at that stage of life cycle. The growth of the elderly contingent in the last decades raises challenges for policymakers, the family and also for the society at large. In this scenario, long-stay institutions for the elderly (LSIEs) appear as an option to aid and support the elderly and their family, assisting in all or part in the activities of daily living and self-care. Inside these LSIEs we find the professional responsible for the direct care of the elderly, the formal caregiver. In this context, this dissertation presents two main objectives: an analysis of the phenomenon of population aging in a given brazilian municipality Natal / RN, based on the Demographic Censuses of 2000 e 2010; and a social, demographic and economic characterization of the Formal caregiver for the institutionalized elderly in the municipality, evaluating aspects of his quality of life and also analyzing the institutions where they are inserted. Furthermore, we intend to identify demographic, socioeconomic and quality of life factors that are correlated with caregivers quitting the job. The data used in the second part of this work comes from the research project named Long-Stay Institutions for Elderly: abandonment or a family need? . This survey interviewed 92 caregivers in eleven LSIEs in Natal/RN. In the data treatment logistic regressions, cluster analysis and statistical tests were used. The survey revealed that aging in Natal is more pronounced in the older, more traditional districts: Petrópolis, Lagoa Seca and Tirol. It also allowed a broad characterization of the formal caregivers in LSIEs. Most of these professionals are female. The educational level is predominantly complete high school and more. Most caregivers reported being married or in union, or have ever been in a union. Family monthly income is under three times the minimum wage. The mean age is of 37.4 years. The mean time of work as a caregiver was 5.93 years. The associations showed that being woman, not being single, having caregiving training and physical limitations (regarding quality of life) are related to wanting to quit the caregiving job. As for the characterization of the LSIEs, it was found that the philanthropic ones are older and have most (62.5%) of the institutionalized elderly. The institutions managers gave social interaction and affinity with the elderly as the main criteria with which to evaluate and hire caregivers. It is intended with this study to contribute to improving the quality of life of the elderly and their caregiver, providing information on aspects of institutionalization of elderly both in the philanthropic and particular institutions, in Natal/RN; this dissertation may also be used as a starting point for later works

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This dissertation aims at analyzing some relations established between teachers‟ formative proposal for docent knowledge and pedagogical practices in the Special Program of Professional Formation to Basic Education (Proformação in Portuguese) with the objective of investigating how teachers evaluate knowledge acquired during their course formation to identify its improvement in their pedagogical practice. This is a Pedagogical Program of the State University of Rio Grande do Norte chosen to be analyzed. The objective is to investigate how teachers, Proformação/Pedagogy course students evaluate privileged knowledge in that university formation and how the relation between this knowledge and their pedagogical practice are experienced in classroom as teachers, defining in which way knowledge constructed and reconstructed during the course contributes for an improvement of their pedagogical practices. We have interviewed fourteen Proformação/Pedagogy last-term teachers, emphasizing the analysis of their point of view as social actors related to docent university formation in service. The principles for this investigation comprehend a qualitative approach, in a case study modality, with an exploratory tendency, presented in the introductory section and along four chapters. The research is theoretically guided by Andoino (1998), Bardin (2009); Laville e Dione (1999); Bogdan and Biklen (1994), Hernandez Sampieri, Hernandez Collado and Baptista Lúcio (2006), among others. We justify this thematic choice, considering docent formation and its interface with an improvement for students‟ leaning, taking into account the strict relations between those elements. We have discussed on docent formative paradigms, based on a multireferential perspective, whose main authors that developed research in this area are: Gómez (1998), Sacristán e Gómez (1998), Tardif (2002), Altet (2001) Paquay e Wagner (2001), Garcia (1999), Baldi (2008), La Torre e Barrios (2002). We interviewed fourteen teachers, all of them in the last term of the Program. In the second chapter, we justify the choice of the subject, approaching docent formation and its relation with basic teaching. We understand that there is a strong relation between those aspects. In the third chapter, we discuss on some docent formative paradigms, among them, Gomes (1998), Sacristán and Gomez (1998), Tardig (2002), Altet (2001) Paquay and Wagner (2001), Garcia (1999), Baldi (2008), La Torre and Barrios (2002). We introduce the Pedagogical Program structure and specify which formative paradigms characterize it and identifying that one of the most prominent paradigm is a practical perspective with emphasis on reflexivity about the practice based on the premise that docent formation is be based on from learning to practice theory. We present an data analysis obtained from thematic categorization extracted subjects‟ discourses and, at the end, we discuss on evaluation of the teachers involved in the research related to the course contributions to provide an improvement for pedagogical practices developed by them inside their classrooms. We consider, thus, that teachers evaluate the Program as a guideline for (re)construction of diversified knowledge, which, in turn, provides the development of abilities to analyze classroom situations based on pedagogical theories and to develop investigative practice based on everyday experience. The results point out that some implications are relevant, among them: the thematic-choice, discussed previously, needs other kinds of investigations. The relation between theory and practice proposed in formation programs requires more systematic studies considering others aspects that characterize teaching process, and mainly, to provide investigative proposals of and about such practices

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The decrease in crime is one of the core issues that cause concern in society today. This study aims to propose improvements to public safety from the choice of points to the location of police units, ie the points which support the car and the police. For this, three models were developed in order to assist decision making regarding the best placement of these bases. The Model of Police Units Routing has the intention to analyze the current configuration of a given region and develop optimal routes for round preventative. The Model of Allocation and Routing for New Police Units (MARNUP) used the model of facility location called p-median weighted and traveling salesman problem (TSP) combined aiming an ideal setting for regions that do not yet have support points or to assess how far the distribution is present in relation to that found in solution. The Model Redefinition and Routing Unit Police (MRRUP) seek to change the current positioning taking into account the budgetary constraints of the decision maker. To verify the applicability of these models we used data from 602 points to instances of police command that is responsible for the capital city of Natal. The city currently has 31 police units for 36 of these 19 districts and police have some assistance. This reality can lead to higher costs and higher response times for answering emergency calls. The results of the models showed that in an ideal situation it is possible to define a distance of 500 km/round, whereas in this 900 km are covered by approximately round. However, a change from three-point lead reduced to 700 km / round which represents a decrease of 22% in the route. This reduction should help improve response time to emergency care, improving the level of service provided by the increase of solved cases, reducing police shifts and routing preventive patrols

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The fishing is an activity with rafts marked by unpredictability, poor tools, physical stress, awkward postures, risk of accidents and incidents, which contribute to insecurity in the context of activity. This study aimed to contribute to reducing of physical effort and the biomechanical impacts in jangadeiro activity of artisanal fishing using jangadas on the beach of Ponta Negra, Natal-RN. To achieve this purpose the methodology of the Work Ergonomic Analysis - WEA became a reference using techniques such as observational and interactional observation notes, photographs, videos, action conversational and listening verbalizations. The resulting activity in health jangadeiro, discussed in this research were: static postural assessment, flexibility of movement of shoulder flexion-extension, flexibility of the hamstrings and lower back, grip and musculoskeletal pain. It was found from observations, interactions and activity analysis, that in carrying out fishing rafts are frequent awkward postures associated with demand for power and many are already feeling the jangadeiros reflections of years of life dedicated to this work. These have already adopted some measures to manage the activity, such as job rotation during the expedition of capture. Therefore, there is a need to expand these measures of activity management, as well as design and capabilities of the raft, seeking positive changes in the activity and consequently the quality of life jangadeiro

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The knowledge management has received major attention from product designers because many of the activities within this process have to be creative and, therefore, they depend basically on the knowledge of the people who are involved in the process. Moreover, Product Development Process (PDP) is one of the activities in which knowledge management manifests in the most critical form once it had the intense application of the knowledge. As a consequence, this thesis analyzes the knowledge management aiming to improve the PDP and it also proposes a theoretical model of knowledge management. This model uses five steps (creation, maintenance, dissemination, utilization and discard) through the verification of the occurrence of four types of knowledge conversion (socialization, externalization, combination and internalization) that it will improve the knowledge management in this process. The intellectual capital in Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) managed efficiently and with the participation of all employees has become the mechanism of the creation and transference processes of knowledge, supporting and, consequently, improving the PDP. The expected results are an effective and efficient application of the proposed model for the creation of the knowledge base within an organization (organizational memory) aiming a better performance of the PDP. In this way, it was carried out an extensive analysis of the knowledge management (instrument of qualitative and subjective evaluation) within the Design department of a Brazilian company (SEBRAE/RN). This analysis aimed to know the state-of-the-art of the Design department regarding the use of knowledge management. This step was important in order to evaluate in the level of the evolution of the department related to the practical use of knowledge management before implementing the proposed theoretical model and its methodology. At the end of this work, based on the results of the diagnosis, a knowledge management system is suggested to facilitate the knowledge sharing within the organization, in order words, the Design department

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This Thesis deals with the performance improvement on hotels that have adopted the ISO 9000 Quality Management Systems. It is researched the Brazilian hotels that have an ISO 9001 registration with an assessment form based on the Balanced Scorecard approach. The main findings are that ISO 9000 provided improvement on the performance of the hotels in general and also in all the BSC perspectives, and that are different perception on managers and directors, what suggests a need for a tool like BSC to register the performance improvements on the same basis. The Thesis contributes to provide information on the performance improvement in hotels, one of the claimed regarding the low ISO 9000 adoption rate in Brazilian hotels

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This work aims to show how the application of frequency selective surfaces (FSS) in planar antenna arrays become an alternative to obtain desired radiation characteristics from changes in radiation parameters of the arrays, such as bandwidth, gain and directivity. In addition to analyzing these parameters is also made a study of the mutual coupling between the elements of the array. To accomplish this study, were designed a microstrip antenna array with two patch elements, fed by a network feed. Another change made in the array was the use of the truncated ground plane, with the objective of increasing the bandwidth and miniaturize the elements of the array. In order to study the behavior of frequency selective surfaces applied in antenna arrays, three different layouts were proposed. The first layout uses the FSS as a superstrate (above the array). The second layout uses the FSS as reflector element (below the array). The third layout is placed between two FSS. Numerical and experimental results for each of the proposed configurations are presented in order to validate the research

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The present essay shows strategies of improvement in a well succeded evolutionary metaheuristic to solve the Asymmetric Traveling Salesman Problem. Such steps consist in a Memetic Algorithm projected mainly to this problem. Basically this improvement applied optimizing techniques known as Path-Relinking and Vocabulary Building. Furthermore, this last one has being used in two different ways, in order to evaluate the effects of the improvement on the evolutionary metaheuristic. These methods were implemented in C++ code and the experiments were done under instances at TSPLIB library, being possible to observe that the procedures purposed reached success on the tests done

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In this work, the quantitative analysis of glucose, triglycerides and cholesterol (total and HDL) in both rat and human blood plasma was performed without any kind of pretreatment of samples, by using near infrared spectroscopy (NIR) combined with multivariate methods. For this purpose, different techniques and algorithms used to pre-process data, to select variables and to build multivariate regression models were compared between each other, such as partial least squares regression (PLS), non linear regression by artificial neural networks, interval partial least squares regression (iPLS), genetic algorithm (GA), successive projections algorithm (SPA), amongst others. Related to the determinations of rat blood plasma samples, the variables selection algorithms showed satisfactory results both for the correlation coefficients (R²) and for the values of root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP) for the three analytes, especially for triglycerides and cholesterol-HDL. The RMSEP values for glucose, triglycerides and cholesterol-HDL obtained through the best PLS model were 6.08, 16.07 e 2.03 mg dL-1, respectively. In the other case, for the determinations in human blood plasma, the predictions obtained by the PLS models provided unsatisfactory results with non linear tendency and presence of bias. Then, the ANN regression was applied as an alternative to PLS, considering its ability of modeling data from non linear systems. The root mean square error of monitoring (RMSEM) for glucose, triglycerides and total cholesterol, for the best ANN models, were 13.20, 10.31 e 12.35 mg dL-1, respectively. Statistical tests (F and t) suggest that NIR spectroscopy combined with multivariate regression methods (PLS and ANN) are capable to quantify the analytes (glucose, triglycerides and cholesterol) even when they are present in highly complex biological fluids, such as blood plasma

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The Physical Rehabilitation services (PR) are of fundamental importance in combating the global epidemic of Traffic Accidents (TA). Considering the numerous physical and social consequences of the survivors, quality problems in access to PR are a hazard to recovery of victims. It is necessary to improve the management of quality of services, assessing priority dimensions and intervening in their causes, to ensure rehabilitation available in time and suitable conditions. This study aimed to identify barriers to access to rehabilitation considering the perception of TA victims and professionals. The aim is also to estimate the access to rehabilitation and their associated factors. This is a qualitative and quantitative study of exploratory nature developed in Natal / RN with semi-structured interviews with 19 health professionals and telephone survey to 155 victims of traffic accidents. To explore barriers to access the speeches were transcribed and analyzed using the Alceste software (version 4.9). During the interviews used the following guiding question: “What barriers hinder or prevent access to physical rehabilitation for victims of traffic accidents?”. The names of classes and axes resulting from Alceste was performed by ad hoc query to three external researchers with subsequent consensus of the most representative name of analysis. We conducted multivariate analysis of the influence of the variables of the accident, sociodemographic, clinical and assistance on access to rehabilitation. Associations with p <0.20 in the bivariate analysis were submitted to logistic regression, step by step, with p <0.05 and confidence interval (CI) of 95%. The main barriers identified were: “Bureaucratic regulation”, “Long time to start rehabilitation”, “No post-surgery referral” and “inefficiency of public services”. These barriers were divided into a theoretical model built from the cause-effect diagram, in which we observed that insufficient access to rehabilitation is the product of causes related to organizational structure, work processes, professional and patients. Was constructed two logistic regression models: “General access to rehabilitation” and “Access to rehabilitation to public service”. 51.6% of patients had access to rehabilitation, and 32.9% in public and 17.9% in the private sector. The regression model “General access to rehabilitation” included the variables Income (OR:3.7), Informal Employment (OR:0.11), Unemployment (OR:0.15), Perceived Need for PR (OR:10) and Referral (OR: 27.5). The model “Access to rehabilitation in the public service” was represented by the “Referral to Public Service” (OR: 23.0) and “Private Health Plan” (OR: 0.07). Despite the known influence of social determinants on access to health services, a situation difficult to control by the public administration, this study found that the organizational and bureaucratic procedures established in health care greatly determine access to rehabilitation. Access difficulties show the seriousness of the problem and the factors suggest the need for improvements in comprehensive care for TA survivors and avoid unnecessary prolongation of the suffering of the victims of this epidemic.

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Studies have shown that resident informally plays the role of teacher. It is estimated that up to 25% of the residents of the time is devoted to teaching, mainly contributing as a facilitator, however, almost the entire medical residency programs in Brazil did not offer teacher training during residency education. This paper aims to introduce educational content initiation to teaching as part of the training of resident physician inserted in residency program of the University Hospital Onofre Lopes (HUOL). It is an exploratory, descriptive and prospective study in HUOL the Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte. Three steps were developed: preparation and planning of a pedagogic course, associated with a motivating technical content (basic and advanced life support); second stage, testing of pedagogical model for medical students; and finally, replication to residents. The interventions were made two practice stations life support with performance evaluation in practical activity through OSPE (Objective Structured Practical Examination). The techniques presented teachings were one-minute preceptor and feedback. Data collection was conducted through a structured evaluation form during the life support stations and at the end of the course, and analyzed using descriptive statistics. The results showed that the feedback and one minute preceptor were considered important for teaching and learning for more than 85% of participants. The feedback from evaluators practices stations added information about the performance and were held appreciatively way, according to 100% of the participants. Positive aspects highlighted by the participants were related to educational content, especially the participants of the first intervention. The time of the lectures of motivating technical content was the most repeated negative. Based on the good acceptance of pedagogical contents, this pioneer teacher training strategy was included in the formal residency program in Cardiology of our institution. It is considered therefore that the educational training model with motivating technical content was feasible and had a good evaluation and acceptance by most participants in both interventions. Thus, we believe that the educational content can be inserted in the formal curriculum of medical residency of other programs at HUOL through the training model developed in this study.

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Studies have shown that resident informally plays the role of teacher. It is estimated that up to 25% of the residents of the time is devoted to teaching, mainly contributing as a facilitator, however, almost the entire medical residency programs in Brazil did not offer teacher training during residency education. This paper aims to introduce educational content initiation to teaching as part of the training of resident physician inserted in residency program of the University Hospital Onofre Lopes (HUOL). It is an exploratory, descriptive and prospective study in HUOL the Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte. Three steps were developed: preparation and planning of a pedagogic course, associated with a motivating technical content (basic and advanced life support); second stage, testing of pedagogical model for medical students; and finally, replication to residents. The interventions were made two practice stations life support with performance evaluation in practical activity through OSPE (Objective Structured Practical Examination). The techniques presented teachings were one-minute preceptor and feedback. Data collection was conducted through a structured evaluation form during the life support stations and at the end of the course, and analyzed using descriptive statistics. The results showed that the feedback and one minute preceptor were considered important for teaching and learning for more than 85% of participants. The feedback from evaluators practices stations added information about the performance and were held appreciatively way, according to 100% of the participants. Positive aspects highlighted by the participants were related to educational content, especially the participants of the first intervention. The time of the lectures of motivating technical content was the most repeated negative. Based on the good acceptance of pedagogical contents, this pioneer teacher training strategy was included in the formal residency program in Cardiology of our institution. It is considered therefore that the educational training model with motivating technical content was feasible and had a good evaluation and acceptance by most participants in both interventions. Thus, we believe that the educational content can be inserted in the formal curriculum of medical residency of other programs at HUOL through the training model developed in this study.