Modelo de covariância bayesiana para seleção de protfólios de investimentos

The portfolio theory is a field of study devoted to investigate the decision-making by investors of resources. The purpose of this process is to reduce risk through diversification and thus guarantee a return. Nevertheless, the classical Mean-Variance has been criticized regarding its parameters and it is observed that the use of variance and covariance has sensitivity to the market and parameter estimation. In order to reduce the estimation errors, the Bayesian models have more flexibility in modeling, capable of insert quantitative and qualitative parameters about the behavior of the market as a way of reducing errors. Observing this, the present study aimed to formulate a new matrix model using Bayesian inference as a way to replace the covariance in the MV model, called MCB - Covariance Bayesian model. To evaluate the model, some hypotheses were analyzed using the method ex post facto and sensitivity analysis. The benchmarks used as reference were: (1) the classical Mean Variance, (2) the Bovespa index's market, and (3) in addition 94 investment funds. The returns earned during the period May 2002 to December 2009 demonstrated the superiority of MCB in relation to the classical model MV and the Bovespa Index, but taking a little more diversifiable risk that the MV. The robust analysis of the model, considering the time horizon, found returns near the Bovespa index, taking less risk than the market. Finally, in relation to the index of Mao, the model showed satisfactory, return and risk, especially in longer maturities. Some considerations were made, as well as suggestions for further work

Avaliação de programa de ginástica laboral e desempenho funcional: um estudo em empresa distribuidora de energia elétrica

This thesis treats of a avaliation of a laboral gimnastics program of a electrical energy enterprise from Rio Grande do Norte. The leading aim of this work is to analyse the laboral gimnastics program with emphasis on functional performing and personal changes of staff of different categories. The work shows two divisions: at first, it was carried out the bibliographic study approaching the concepts and historic about the ergonomy and the main focus of study, the laboral gimnastics , performing factors and lifestyle.The second time , it was carried out the field study where was used a questionnaire to a 160 staff population which participate of laboral gymnastics program; then the data were analysed through three statistics analyses: multivaried__ clusters, qui-quadrado and multiple linear regression. The results aim to the confirmation that the laboral gymnastics program developed two years ago on enterprise proposes to the white-collar and operational workers an improving on their functional performing and also, to the changes in some aspects of lifestyle, like the food, leisure and stress level. In conclusion, it was checked that the investiment in life quality programs offer benefits both to the staff and the enterprise which will account with good services and satisfaction of customer. Therefore, it was concluded that the laboral gymnastics while a ergonomic tool and a physical activity, it is an investiment which needs more and more to be strengthened and inserted by many segments of society

Avaliação da interação universidade - empresas - governo no desenvolvimento de projetos inovadores no RN por micro e pequenas empresas

Knowledge and innovation were seen as major forces, both for survival, as the acquisition of competitive advantages in the Brazilian economy, as well as adding value to the product as a market differentiator. The Triple Helix model is directed toward the knowledge-based economy. Over the past six years, the Federal Government through the Financier of Studies and Projects ( FINEP ) invested in technological innovation projects, economic subsidies, about U.S. $ 1 billion supporting more than 800 projects with these resources. According to the MCTI , the Northeast, over the years 2000 to 2010 increased spending on Science and Technology (considering the activities of research and development more scientific and related activities) of the State Government in relation to its total revenue In 2000, 0.51% of total revenues were invested in Science & Technology, while in 2010 this figure increased to 1.31%. Among the nine Northeast states, Paraíba is highlighted. In 2000, 0.33% of its total revenues were directed to innovation, reaching 2.04% in 2010, the largest increase in the region while the RN invested 0.24% in 2000 and in 2010 reached the level of 1.42 %. According to IBGE, in the period 2000-2011, the micro and small enterprises surpassed the barrier of 6 million establishments. In 2000, there were 4.2 million establishments while in 2011 were 6.3 million active establishments. Therefore, throughout the period, there was a creation of approximately 2.1 million new establishments. Between 2000 and 2011, micro and small businesses have created 7.0 million formal jobs, 8.6 million jobs in 2000 to 15.6 million in 2011. This scenario shows the importance of this study in relation to the investment of governments in RD & I in micro and small enterprises. This study aims to analyze the interaction Universities - Business - Government in the development of innovation in micro and small companies in Rio Grande do Norte participants of the edicts of Inova FAPERN. We chose to adopt as a research method case study concerning the procedure of the research, exploratory, descriptive, and on documents with engineers and researchers of innovation projects approved by PAPPE Subsidy (Inova -RN I, II and III). Data collection was done through the report made by FAPERN entitled: " Evaluation of companies financed and supported by the Grant Program for Technological Innovation for Micro and Small Enterprises RN - INOVA -RN " (2010) and a questionnaire with 40 closed questions and 1 opened to 30 affirmative composed based on a 5-point Likert scale. The analysis of data was qualitative and quantitative. The study provided to identify the importance and barriers arising from the relation between Government Enterprise (micro and small) and University as essential to the economic development of the region. It was also identified that, in the innovation projects, 70% of the goods or services originating from research were to market these, 50% resulted in a patent for the company and 80% publications of scientific articles

Avaliação do desenvolvimento sustentável na bacia hidrográfica do Rio Seridó em face das políticas públicas e da gestão dos recursos hídricos

The reality of water resources management in semiarid regions, such as the Seridó region, has been shaped by a complex chain involving social-cultural, political, economic and environmental aspects, covering different spheres of activity - from local to federal. Because water is a scarce element, the most rational way pointed out by our recent history has been to move towards an increasing emphasis on the need for a truly rational, integrated, sustainable and participatory water resources management, supported by legislation and by a network of institutions that could materialize it. In this sense, despite all the advances in the formulation of public policies in water resources, which ones have indeed lead to significant changes that have occurred or are underway in semiarid regions such as Seridó? What factors may be preventing the realization of the desires rationality embedded in the framers of water policies intents? How to properly manage water resources if the current actors who promote their management and the political, human, cultural and institutional processes that intervene in this management, show strong traces of unsustainability? The research methodology adopted in this paper led to a breakdown of the traditional approach to water resource management, to integrate it into other areas of knowledge, especially to political science and public administration, catalyzed by the concept of "sustainable development". From a broad, interdisciplinary literature review, an exhaustive characterization of the river basin Seridó, a set of interviews with key people in the public administration acting in the region, a series of diagnoses and a set of propositions were made in order to correct the direction of current public policies for the region. From the point of view of public policies, it is in the deployment phase, not in its formulation, which lies a major problem of the lack of significant progress in water management. The lack of coordination between government programs are well characterized, as well as the lack of efficiency and effectiveness of their actions. The causes of this secular model are also discussed, including political factors and social relations of production, which led to a stalemate difficult, but of possible solution. It can be perceived there is a scenario of progressive deterioration of natural resources of the fragile ecosystem and a network of environmental and social consequences difficult to reverse, the result of a persistent and inertial sociopolitical culture, whose main factors reinforce itself. The work leads towards a characterization of the water resources management also from the perspective of environmental, institutional, political and human sustainability , the latter being identified, particularly as investment in the development of people as autonomous beings - not based in ideological directives of any kind - in the emancipation of the traditional figure of the poor man of the hinterland" to the "catalyst for change" responsible for their own decisions or omissions, based upon an education for free-thinking that brings each one as co-responsible epicenter of (self-) sustainable changes in their midst

Avaliação econômica dos incentivos fiscais e financeiros: uma análise das empresas industriais têxteis localizadas no Rio Grande do Norte, no período de 1999 a 2003

This study has as main objective to verify the effect of the tax and financial incentives granted by the brazilian states, specially in the reduction of ICMS on the investment decision of the entities, which in the last years led to the companies to decide new projects in based on the region that presented the better infrastructure beyond lesser tributary expense. For in such was made an economic valuation of the companies with focus in the beneficiary s optics using an adaptation of the Discounted Cash Flow method to measure the impact of the tax incentives in the value of the companies, this study selected the textile industry segment located in the State of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil. The results indicated that such incentives created addition in the value of the companies, however the inexistence of incentives would not be enough to a negative decision of investment in the Rio Grande do Norte. The smallest difference between the value with and without incentive observed was 8.9%, and the biggest 31.7%, and the average of value aggregation with the tax incentives represented 18.9%

Promoção, vencimento e avaliação de desempenho do professor do ensino fundamental: o PCCR da rede municipal de ensino de Natal/RN (2004-2010)

This study is about the enhancement of the elementary school in Natal/RN, (PCCR - Law No. 058/2004), concerning to the horizontal promotion through the performance evaluation. It uses as reference the education policy on the legislative field hegemony and the managerial model. The analysis of the teacher´s valorization is based on the policy of Funds (Fundef and Fundeb) in the Brazilian social and educational agenda. The study focuses on the Career Plan, Career and Remuneration of teachers in the period (2004-2010).The study focuses on the Career Plan, Career and Remuneration of teachers in the period (2004-2010). The thesis argues for the necessity to adopt a direct relationship between career development and horizontal promotion for more others fifteen classes, no matter to any conditioning variables. In addition, the performance shall be evaluated by interval of 25 years to reach at least the provisions decided in the law, which determines the salary adjustment in 5% at every two years, as pointed at the PCCR, about teachers remuneration, and teachers qualifications. A work of a bibliographic and a documental review about the education funding with the purpose of enhancement of educational work, career concepts, and also promotion and evaluation performance as well was performed based on experts authors in this field. The survey was organized with the aim of articulating quantitative and qualitative information, analyzing data from the teacher's salary - payrolls and paychecks - also applying a questionnaire. After the implementation of the PCCR, it was found that the wage indices for horizontal promotion during the teaching career are tied to a strategy for evaluating the performance which disqualifies the teacher‟s salaries in a minimum percentage of 25% (up to 25 years) and there are also elements that disturb the promotion strategy. The national minimum wage was set in three salaries by the PSPN Lei nº11.738/2008 but it never reaches the three salaries at Natal/RN educational system.Otherwise, the elements that structure the horizontal promotion in fifteen classes, throughout the career, flout the minimum years of teaching work, long established in 25 years. In addition, changes in terms in the salary increase depend on individual efforts by professional development through titration. Concerning to the career, despite of the category approving its PCCR, neither this instrument nor the Funds Policy managed to establish regulations were able to cope effective rules for valuing the teachers in the educational district system. It is necessary to ensure, in percentage terms and financial, the real remuneration of teachers with the attainment of horizontal promotion, reviewing the elements that structure the career and the determinants of performance evaluation.

Expectativas reprodutivas de pais e filhos: uma avaliação do conflito pais-prole

Reproduction is an essential part of humans species’ existence and survival. We are interested in securing it, and having a direct interest in the reproduction of those with whom we have strong genetic relationship. Trivers (1974) featured the parent-offspring conflict, as a divergence about the parents’ investment, which has been mainly studied in the early stages of children’s development. However, the divergence in investment can also be expressed at the time of the reproductive decisions of the offspring. Thus, we investigated whether parents and children have conflicting interests regarding reproductive expectations of the children, understanding reproductive expectations as desired age to marry, have children, have sexual intercourse and desired amount of children. We found that parents and children disagree on some of these points, we also find a more conservative expectation when it comes to daughters, reiterating the daughter-guarding hypothesis. When we consider how much help would be given towards the up bringing of a grandson, we found a clear variation according to the age of the baby's parents: the younger the baby’s parents are, the larger the amount of assistance would be provided by grandparents. Considering the amount and quality of offspring and conditions of reproduction, parental investment is an element that presents itself closely linked to the history of the subject's life. Parents are the first to communicate to children how the environment in which they are inserted is presenting itself. As the life history is closely linked with reproduction, and, therefore, with parental investment, we intend to investigate whether there is a correlation between aspects of the individuals’ history of life (unpredictability and parental care) and their reproductive expectations, seeking further assess on whether there is relationship between parents' life history and their reproductive expectations for their children. We find evidence that partially confirm our expectations; we find relationships of some elements of reproductive expectations with indicators of unpredictability and parental care. The experiences of parents also reflected in their expectations for their children, with a more present correlation to their expectations for daughters. From our results, we find evidence that parent-offspring conflict appears in the reproductive expectations of children and relates to aspects of individuals’ life history.

O olhar das instituições de previdência sobre a casa e a cidade: promoção, financiamento e avaliação de imóveis

The investments of Caixas and Institutos de Aposentadoria e Pensões (CAP and IAP) in homes of Natal, between the decades of 1930-60, helped to boost up the local real estate market in consolidation at the time. Inserted in the first national policy on social housing in the country, these operations have demanded the creation of a wide qualified organizational structure, which would be from the "Central Offices" of Rio de Janeiro to the decentralized units of the federal states. The professionals linked to the Local Agencies have developed, on this matter, from activities related to the design and construction of residential complexes, to the daily study of financing proposals in isolated units. As from these studies, the evaluation of shelters was essential to the effectiveness of the policy, resulting in the production of data on the market value of the properties by observing and issuing judgments upon the living quarters of different social groups. Given these considerations, the aim here is to contribute to the understanding on how to operate these real estate actions in the legitimization of boundaries about the urban space and dwellings available to workers in Natal. Therefore, the views of the city and constructions expressed by the evaluating engineers in their technical reports have been taken as the focus. Being the main primary sources of work, these reports are part of the edifices process of CAP/IAP regarding Natal, whose content is systematized in the database "Enterprises", the HCUrb Research Group. In addition, there were used local newspapers at the time and interviews with professionals as complementary sources. It was found that, in general, the evaluations have configured – in a more everyday dimension of bureaucratic routines - a vehicle, among others, circulating ideas about "home" within the social security institutions, being imbued with assumptions historically constructed about the "modern habitat". Filled in loco, the reports expose the clash between modernizing ideals in vogue and clear limitations in the city scenario at the time. Fragmented images of the town are given to read through the labels assigned to the evaluated sites – these being coated of certain "scientific" character - which both legitimated and contributed to the dynamics of appreciation/depreciation of the soil and to the socio-spatial differentiation. Contradictions were evident in the endorsement given by the technicians when financing of admittedly precarious homes for insured disadvantaged categories at the local level - such as industrial workers - while strict regulations were imposed to new construction, designed, above all, to better paid categories. By identifying raters engineers as urban agents, members of a technical-focused operating system for safety and efficiency in the real estate investments of those authorities corporatist, it is desired the usefulness of further studies on these characters, their training, professional activity and participation in the construction of discourses and practices of intervention about the city and its buildings, discussing individual and grouped interests that were left behind.