Modelo de covariância bayesiana para seleção de protfólios de investimentos

The portfolio theory is a field of study devoted to investigate the decision-making by investors of resources. The purpose of this process is to reduce risk through diversification and thus guarantee a return. Nevertheless, the classical Mean-Variance has been criticized regarding its parameters and it is observed that the use of variance and covariance has sensitivity to the market and parameter estimation. In order to reduce the estimation errors, the Bayesian models have more flexibility in modeling, capable of insert quantitative and qualitative parameters about the behavior of the market as a way of reducing errors. Observing this, the present study aimed to formulate a new matrix model using Bayesian inference as a way to replace the covariance in the MV model, called MCB - Covariance Bayesian model. To evaluate the model, some hypotheses were analyzed using the method ex post facto and sensitivity analysis. The benchmarks used as reference were: (1) the classical Mean Variance, (2) the Bovespa index's market, and (3) in addition 94 investment funds. The returns earned during the period May 2002 to December 2009 demonstrated the superiority of MCB in relation to the classical model MV and the Bovespa Index, but taking a little more diversifiable risk that the MV. The robust analysis of the model, considering the time horizon, found returns near the Bovespa index, taking less risk than the market. Finally, in relation to the index of Mao, the model showed satisfactory, return and risk, especially in longer maturities. Some considerations were made, as well as suggestions for further work

Terceirização em tecnologia da informação sob os aspectos de estratégia, tomada de decisão e análise de investimentos :estudo de múltiplos casos em três organizações franqueadas da Coca-Cola do Brasil

Desde a criação da tecnologia e do seu uso pelas empresas, a relação custo e benefício nem sempre foi bem elucidada tanto para os responsáveis pela área de tecnologia quanto para a alta direção. Mas, apesar disto, cada vez mais as organizações investem maciçamente em tecnologia, esperando que esta seja a solução para diversos problemas. Por isto, esta questão tem se tornado crucial para o processo de tomada de decisões, visto que investimentos nesta área costumam ser dispendiosos e, na atual conjuntura, estas análises precisam ser extremamente criteriosas para que se miniminizem as possibilidades de insucesso dos projetos, principalmente numa economia estabilizada e de concorrência acirrada. Uma das alternativas que as empresas têm buscado para atingir o sucesso e correr menos riscos é a terceirização da área de TI. Partindo desta visão, a presente dissertação tem por objetivo realizar uma investigação sobre a terceirização dos serviços de TI em todos os seus aspectos, isto é, desde a sua motivação, serviços efetivamente terceirizados, vantagens, desvantagens e possíveis obstáculos, a visão do alinhamento estratégico da TI, os processos de gestão de contratos e formas de controle e, por fim, tendências futuras. Trata-se de uma pesquisa de múltiplos casos, envolvendo franquias do Sistema Coca-Cola no Brasil. O estudo apresenta uma pesquisa bibliográfica sobre o processo de tomada de decisão empresarial, a análise de investimentos, a gestão e a terceirização da TI, o que permitem definir as dimensões de análise da pesquisa. Na pesquisa de campo foram entrevistados os gerentes da área de TI, nas cidades de Brasília-DF, Goiânia-GO e Ribeirão Preto-SP. A pesquisa de campo permitiu identificar como as mesmas avaliam seus investimentos em TI, como esta área é gerenciada, o que as levou a optar pela terceirização e como os processos terceirizados afetam a organização. Por se tratar de uma pesquisa qualitativa, optou-se por analisar comparativamente as três organizações. Com a realização deste estudo, obtiveram-se, como principais resultados, que as organizações estão utilizando a terceirização em TI para focar no negócio principal e, mesmo encontrando diversas desvantagens, inclusive com relação a custos, acreditam que os benefícios justificam. Ainda identificaram-se alguns obstáculos internos para a terceirização, principalmente quanto ao receio de se perder a inteligência do negócio. O acompanhamento dessas atividades terceirizadas é realizado pela equipe interna e por critérios estruturados, onde se verificam os níveis de serviço

Macrofauna de ambientes não consolidados adjacentes à recifes da área de proteção ambiental dos recifes de corais Rio Grande do Norte, Brasil

This study aimed to characterize, for the first time, the benthic invertebrates that inhabit the region of soft bottoms adjacent to the APARC reefs in order to situate them as an important component of infralittoral coastal areas of Northeast Brazil. Soft bottoms areas of APARC corresponds to infralittoral zones vegetated by seagrass Halodule wrightii and unvegetated infralittoral zones, both subjected to substantial hydrodynamic stress. Through scuba diving, biological and sedimentary samples of both habitats were analyzed, with a cylindrical sampler. We identified 6160 individuals belonging to 16 groups and 224 species. The most abundant macrofaunal group was Polychaeta (43%), followed by Mollusca (25%) and Crustacea (14%), what was expected for these environments. In the first chapter, regarding vegetated areas, we tested three hypotheses: the existence of differences in the faunal structure associated with H. wrightii banks submitted to different hydrodynamic conditions; the occurrence of minor temporal variations on the associated macrofauna of banks protected from hydrodynamic stress; and if the diversity of macrofauna is affected by both benthophagous predators and H. wrightii biomass. It was observed that macrofauna associated at the Exposed bank showed differences in structure when comparing the Protected bank, the granulometry of the sediments, that co-varies with the hydrodynamism, was the cause of these variations. The results also pointed to a lower temporal variation in the macrofaunal structure on the Protected bank and a negative relation between macrofaunal and benthophagous fish abundance. At the Exposed bank, a greater faunal diversity was observed, probably due to the higher seagrass biomass. The second chapter compares the vegetated and non-vegetated areas in order to test the hypothesis that due to greater seasonal stability in tropical environments, seagrass structure would act to distinguish the vegetated and non-vegetated areas macrofauna, over time. It was also expected that depositivores were the most representative invertebrates on non-vegetated environments, on the assumption that the seagrass bank would work as a source of debris to adjacent areas, enriching them. Considering all sampling periods, the total macrofauna abundance and diversity were higher in vegetated areas, when compared to non-vegetated ones. Seasonally, the structural complexity provided by Halodule differentiated more clearly the fauna from vegetated and non-vegetated areas, but only at the climatic extremes, i.e. Dry season (extreme climatic stability, with low hydronamism variation) and Rainy season (great hydrodynamism variation and probably vegetated bank burial). Furthermore, the high organic matter levels measured in the sandy banks coincided with an outstanding trophic importance of deposit feeders, proving the debris-carrying hypothesis. The last chapter focused on the non-vegetated areas, where we tested that the hypothesis infaunal halo in tropical reefs depending on local granulometry. In this context, we also tested the hypothesis that benthophagous fish predation would have an effect on the low abundance of macrofaunal groups due to the high hydrographic stress, thus allowing other predatory groups to have greater importance in these environments. Proving the hypothesis, no spatial variation, both on abundance families neither on community structure, occur along distance of the edge reefs. However, we found that complex combinations of physical factors (grain size and organic matter levels originated from local hydronamic conditions) covary with the distance from the reefs and has stronger influence on macrofauna than considered biological factors, such as predation by benthophagous fishes. Based on the main results, this study shows that unconsolidated areas around APARC reefs are noteworthy from an ecological and conservational point of view, as evidenced by the biota-environment and organismal relations, never before described for these areas

Desindustrialização no Brasil: teorias e evidências para o debate

This study aims to contribute with evidence to reinforce or not the thesis of a possible deindustrialization of the Brazilian economy, with emphasis on period after 1995. The debate began in the late 80s, however, recently the industry deceleration gained strength in discussions academic. Between the main theses in this debate is the new-development that believes in precocious deindustrialization caused primarily by overvaluation exchange rate. However, part of heterodoxy believes the industry downturn is more related to the rate of investment than the exchange rate. Nevertheless, according to the orthodox thesis the loss of competitiveness due to the high cost of production may have caused the de-industrialization in Brazil. On the other hand, part of Orthodoxy does not believe that the country is deindustrializing it, but is occurring convergence of Brazilian industry the world average. Thus, in an attempt to shed light on this debate, this study intends to identify the reasons for the deceleration of the Brazilian industry, emphasizing aspects underexplored in the literature and define whether or not the country suffers a process of deindustrialization. When analyzing various indicators, especially the quantum level we find strong indications that the deceleration of the Brazilian industry can be characterized as a deindustrialization, though still insufficient to qualify as precocious, given the loss of share in physical production in total output and the share of primary goods in the export basket

Esforços governamentais locais para o desenvolvimento: desenhos, tendências e limites dos Fundos de Desenvolvimento Industrial nos estados do Rio Grande do Norte, Maranhão e Ceará (1985-2010)

This research aimed to analyze the main government efforts to promote economic development in the Northeast, from 1985 to 2010, under the view that growth is crucial for increasing industrialization process and allows for more significant growth patterns. The analysis was the context in which state governments react to the abandonment of developmental line the federal level, in the 1980s, incorporating features of the actions called endogenous regional development and providing local players with greater responsibility in the development process. Justifies the need to analyze the following scenario: state governments in northeastern Brazil using relevant part of its resources to finance the installation and expansion of companies through tax incentives, with a view to generating income and employment, whilst waiting for an increase in output and a positive change in economic dynamism. In addition, it puts in question the fact that these policies receive such importance of state administrations for the purpose of achieving regional development. It was left to consider, therefore, the contents of the shares elected by state governments to examine the scope of these policies both in the pattern of growth, the transformation of the industrial sector and the development of the region attention to changes in state production structures. Due to limitations on the availability of data and time to carry out research, we were elected three states for the study: Rio Grande do Norte, Ceará and Maranhão. The study found that, despite the contribution of policies analyzed to economic growth, sub-national states are unable to compensate for the lack of development agencies structured at the federal level.