Crescimento econômico e restrição externa da economia brasileira: uma análise do padrão das exportações em relação ao BRIC e do Sistema de Inovação do Brasil (1980-2012)

This Master s Thesis aims to use the theoretical models of growth with restricted balance of payments, specifically Kaldor (1970) and Thirlwall (1979) models, to analyze the behavior and the pattern of specialization of Brazilian exports and imports in the last years. It is observed that, in some periods, the pattern of specialization has contributed in restricting long-term growth of the Brazilian economy. It has been hypothesized that overall this is due to lack of structural transformation policies. To achieve this goal, it analyzed the performance of Brazilian exports and imports disaggregating them according to their technological content. The basis for comparison was a group of countries to which Brazil is inserted in, the BRIC. In this regard, the work is a comparative analysis by using descriptive statistics. It is concluded that the low rate of GDP growth experienced by Brazil since the 1980s can be explained in part by the decoupling of the Brazilian National Innovation System (NIS) and the Brazilian productive structure. This would be reducing the income elasticity of exports and raising imports, causing a pattern of specialization intensive primary commodities and labor and low-skill labor

Crescimento econômico e restrição externa: evidências empíricas na economia brasileira (1991-2010)

This study aims to investigate the influence of the balance of payments constrained on economic growth in Brazil from 1991 to 2010. With this order, are shown some of the Keynesian balance of payments constrained growth models, inspired by Thirlwall (1979) and Kaldor (1970), which are supported by important points in common, such as adherence to the principle of effective demand. Given that within this theoretical perspective, there is no consensus about the best model to explain the growth rate allowed by the balance of payments constraint, the results are presented by the representative of the empirical literature that addresses the topic, which are necessary for understand the Brazilian case. From the estimation of the income elasticity of imports (0.85) via autoregressive vectors with error correction (VEC), it was calculated five growth rates of income, as predicted by the models of Thirlwall (1979), Thirlwall and Hussain (1982), Moreno-Brid (1998, 2003) and Lourenço et al. (2011) and compared with the actual growth rate. The empirical analysis has shown that: it can not reject the presence of external constraint in the Brazilian economy, there is a strong similarity in growth rates provided by different modeling suggest that growth with external constraint. In addition, when using data in quarterly for the period after 1990 there are no factors that could cause instability in the parameters of the import function (income elasticity and price elasticity of imports) within the period, which indicates that the structural break widely associated with the year 1994 was not confirmed by this study

Economia do petróleo e desenvolvimento: estudo exploratório sobre as perspectivas do pré-sal brasileiro

A pesquisa analisa as possibilidades abertas pela exploração de petróleo na camada pré-sal, avaliando de que maneira a expansão do setor petrolífero poderá acelerar o crescimento econômico brasileiro e contribuir para novas estratégias de desenvolvimento. A hipótese inicial é que o Brasil enfrenta uma restrição estrutural de balanço de pagamentos, que poderá ser amenizada pela diminuição das importações de petróleo e derivados e pelo aumento do valor exportado no setor. Para avaliá-la são resgatados aspectos históricos e geopolíticos relacionados ao petróleo, assim como são tratadas as características microeconômicas dos recursos naturais não renováveis. Também se consideram questões de ordem macroeconômica, como a especialização produtiva da economia brasileira e sua inserção no comércio internacional, discutindo como o desenvolvimento da indústria petrolífera poderá afetá-las. Para tanto, a investigação fundamenta-se na teoria estruturalista e nos modelos de crescimento com ênfase na restrição externa. O trabalho examina ainda os casos da Rússia, Venezuela e México para avaliar a experiência de países exportadores de petróleo. Como contribuição, um modelo de crescimento é utilizado para realizar simulações acerca do Brasil, cobrindo o período 2013-2020 com a formulação de três cenários. A partir dos resultados discute-se que a necessidade de consecução das metas fiscal e de inflação pode desencadear políticas restritivas que limitam a utilização da folga fiscal e externa, oriundas do pré-sal, para induzir o crescimento. Conclui-se que um círculo virtuoso de desenvolvimento com mudança estrutural depende não apenas da modernização produtiva, mas também, e principalmente, da evolução político-institucional do país

Gestao tecnologia: um estudo de caso no setor sucroalcooleiro

PEDRO, Edilson da Silva Pedro. Gestão tecnológica: um estudo de caso no setor sucroalcooleiro. 2004. 145f. Dissertaçao (Mestrado em Engenharia de Producao) - Universidade Federal de Sao Carlos, Sao Carlos, 2004.

O estado como empregador de última instância: uma proposta de pleno emprego, estabilidade e condições dignas de trabalho para o Brasil

GOMES, Z. B. ; LOURENÇO, André Luís Cabral de . Atuação do Estado como empregador de última Instância: uma proposta para eliminar o desemprego estrutural do Brasil. In: Encontro Nacional de Economia Política, 13. 2008, João Pessoa/PB. Anais... João Pessoa: ENEP, 2008.

Atuação do estado como empregador de última instância: uma proposta para eliminar o desemprego estrutural do Brasil

GOMES, Z. B. ; LOURENÇO, André Luís Cabral de . Atuação do estado como empregador de última instância: uma proposta para eliminar o desemprego estrutural do Brasil. In: Encontro Nacional de Economia Política,13., 2008, João Pessoa/PB. Anais... João Pessoa, 2008.

Burocracia e comércio exterior: os desafios à exportação sob a ótica das micro e pequenas empresas exportadoras do rio grande do norte

As micro e pequenas empresas, ao mesmo tempo em que exercem um papel extremamente relevante na estrutura produtiva da economia brasileira pelo grande número de empreendedores existentes e expressivo volume de pessoal ocupado, perdem competitividade ao se deparar com entraves ao seu desenvolvimento, sejam eles em âmbito gerencial, financeiro, burocrático ou estrutural. Com base nesse contexto, o estudo procura identificar em que medida, na percepção das MPEs exportadoras do Rio Grande do Norte, as exigências burocráticas do processo exportador afetam o seu desempenho no comércio exterior. Como exigências burocráticas compreende-se o conjunto de normas, regras e procedimentos e documentos que disciplinam o processo exportador, enquanto desempenho é entendido como os resultados da atividade econômica medido através do crescimento das vendas para o mercado externo; das demandas de produtos exportados não atendidas e da ampliação do mercado internacional. A pesquisa realizada é de caráter censitário, desenvolvida junto a quatorze MPEs do estado, atuantes regularmente no comércio exterior nos últimos três anos (2009-2011), utilizando aplicação de questionário, assim como uma consulta a dados secundários disponíveis. A análise dos dados levantados revelou que, efetivamente, na percepção dos respondentes, fatores externos como o custo do processo de exportação, falta de incentivo do governo, excesso de controle dos órgãos públicos e a infraestrutura logística do estado exercem influência na pequena participação das MPEs nas exportações do Brasil e do Nordeste, enquanto o bom desempenho exportador destas relaciona-se a fatores gerenciais, com destaque para investimentos na estrutura organizacional da empresa, conhecimento do mercado internacional e bom relacionamento com clientes e mercados

Reestruturação produtiva na Petrobrás e ação sindical dos petroleiros do RN

Ce travail a l objectif d analyser la question de la restructuration productive dans la Petrobrás/ RN et les implications possibles sur l action syndicale du Sindipetro/RN pendant la période 1995 2003. La restructuration productive dans la Petrobrás/RN commence dans la décennie 1990 quand l entreprise, au niveau national, décide d adhérer au Programa Brasileiro de Qualidade e Produtividade PBQP lancé par le gouvernement Collor comme motivation et priorité pour que les entreprises s adaptent à l ouverture de l économie brésilienne au marché extérieur. De ce fait, la Petrobrás/RN afin de se maintenir dans le marché compétitif et mondialisé , adopte des techniques administratives basées sur la philosophie de la qualité totate, met au point des inovations technologiques et organisationnelles, tout en altérant sa base technique et adopte, encore, la tertiairisation de quelques activités visant à la reduction des coûts. De telles mesures ont atteint de façon remarquable l action du Sindipetro/RN qui commence alors à agir selon la logique de la politique néo-libérale du gouvernement de conduite anti-syndicale. Face à ces faits le syndicat a rédéfini ses actions dans le but de trouver des manières de poursuivre les luttes syndicales dans cette conjoncture de difficultés dans les relations de travail. Celui-ci s engage donc à entamer les négociations comme stratégie afin de préserver les privilèges de la catégorie et d éviter la perte des droits acquis

O princípio constitucional da redução das desigualdades regionais e os campos maduro-marginais de petróleo: aspectos regulatórios e fiscais

Under the circumstances of the desestatization that penetrate Brazilian economy in the 90‟s, new features in the monopoly of oil by the Union were designed by the constitutional amendment number 9. of 1995. This deep change in the legal regime of oil sector brought the possibility of entrance to small and medium size producers in this industry, especially through the production activities developed in mature and marginal fields of oil, which are located mainly in northeast region of Brazil. Considering that the intervention of state over the economy finds its guidelines and limits in Federal Constitution disposals, the present work investigated in which way states regulation, mainly through taxation rules, has obeyed the constitutional regime in force, and specially, the reduction of regional inequalities principle. By mean, firstly, of an analysis of central concepts (mature fields, marginal fields, small and medium size producers) we observed that the imprecision over the conceptual aspect has constituted an obstacle to a specific states‟ regulation, directed to this newborn class of producers, whose growth has been pursuit by the state. That is verified in the case of concession procedures, and also, concerning the taxation system applied to small and medium size producers. Examining the main constitutional principles related to this universe which are the legality, equality, privileged treatment to small enterprises, contributive capacity, and reduction of regional inequalities we conclude that it is legally possible, a truly specific regulation, including a special taxation regime, to the small and medium size producers whose activities are concentrate over mature-marginal fields, aiming the concretization of the Brazilian state main goals

O progama empregador de última instância: Sua relevância em tempos de crises financeiras e sua aplicabilidade ao Brasil.

This dissertation aims to continue the work developed previously concerning the properties of the employer of last resort program (ELR) that would be able to promote a complete elimination of the involuntary unemployment from the economy, so much of the unemployment generated by structural problems as for problems of the conjuncture, as the present world financial crisis. Besides, it intends to deepen the study concerning the applicability of that program to the Brazilian economy, estimating their potential target population in the country and the cost with the workers' remuneration. It was presented the ELR theoretical-conceptual structure and a debate concerning their economic viability; the program properties that turn it more efficient than the onetary and fiscal policies (PMFs) in the fight against involuntary unemployment in times of financial crises; a study on its applicability to the Brazilian socioeconomic specificities and an estimate of their potential target population and of the annual wage cost in the country, as a whole, and in the specific case of the Northeast region and of the state of Rio Grande do Norte.

Avaliação da interação universidade - empresas - governo no desenvolvimento de projetos inovadores no RN por micro e pequenas empresas

Knowledge and innovation were seen as major forces, both for survival, as the acquisition of competitive advantages in the Brazilian economy, as well as adding value to the product as a market differentiator. The Triple Helix model is directed toward the knowledge-based economy. Over the past six years, the Federal Government through the Financier of Studies and Projects ( FINEP ) invested in technological innovation projects, economic subsidies, about U.S. $ 1 billion supporting more than 800 projects with these resources. According to the MCTI , the Northeast, over the years 2000 to 2010 increased spending on Science and Technology (considering the activities of research and development more scientific and related activities) of the State Government in relation to its total revenue In 2000, 0.51% of total revenues were invested in Science & Technology, while in 2010 this figure increased to 1.31%. Among the nine Northeast states, Paraíba is highlighted. In 2000, 0.33% of its total revenues were directed to innovation, reaching 2.04% in 2010, the largest increase in the region while the RN invested 0.24% in 2000 and in 2010 reached the level of 1.42 %. According to IBGE, in the period 2000-2011, the micro and small enterprises surpassed the barrier of 6 million establishments. In 2000, there were 4.2 million establishments while in 2011 were 6.3 million active establishments. Therefore, throughout the period, there was a creation of approximately 2.1 million new establishments. Between 2000 and 2011, micro and small businesses have created 7.0 million formal jobs, 8.6 million jobs in 2000 to 15.6 million in 2011. This scenario shows the importance of this study in relation to the investment of governments in RD & I in micro and small enterprises. This study aims to analyze the interaction Universities - Business - Government in the development of innovation in micro and small companies in Rio Grande do Norte participants of the edicts of Inova FAPERN. We chose to adopt as a research method case study concerning the procedure of the research, exploratory, descriptive, and on documents with engineers and researchers of innovation projects approved by PAPPE Subsidy (Inova -RN I, II and III). Data collection was done through the report made by FAPERN entitled: " Evaluation of companies financed and supported by the Grant Program for Technological Innovation for Micro and Small Enterprises RN - INOVA -RN " (2010) and a questionnaire with 40 closed questions and 1 opened to 30 affirmative composed based on a 5-point Likert scale. The analysis of data was qualitative and quantitative. The study provided to identify the importance and barriers arising from the relation between Government Enterprise (micro and small) and University as essential to the economic development of the region. It was also identified that, in the innovation projects, 70% of the goods or services originating from research were to market these, 50% resulted in a patent for the company and 80% publications of scientific articles

A cadeia produtiva de gás natural no Rio Grande do Norte e perspectivas para o setor

The paper demonstrates how it is organized production chain of natural gas in Rio Grande do Norte and highlights some prospects for this sector. The study is backed by elements to understand the process of innovation as the driving force of capitalist dynamics as well as the features of the Brazilian economy in the years 1990 and 2000 that indicated the development of natural gas production in the energy matrix Brazil. It was found that the state has potiguar possibilities for structuring an energy based on elements from the region and with prospects of becoming self-sufficient in electricity, where natural gas has a share of participation in this segment. The automotive and industrial are the biggest consumers of this input. With emphasis on the textile industry. Signaling to a broad horizon of supply, this sector will depend on their investments in research and Deficient, and the policy adopted by government to develop the consumer market

Desindustrialização no Brasil: teorias e evidências para o debate

This study aims to contribute with evidence to reinforce or not the thesis of a possible deindustrialization of the Brazilian economy, with emphasis on period after 1995. The debate began in the late 80s, however, recently the industry deceleration gained strength in discussions academic. Between the main theses in this debate is the new-development that believes in precocious deindustrialization caused primarily by overvaluation exchange rate. However, part of heterodoxy believes the industry downturn is more related to the rate of investment than the exchange rate. Nevertheless, according to the orthodox thesis the loss of competitiveness due to the high cost of production may have caused the de-industrialization in Brazil. On the other hand, part of Orthodoxy does not believe that the country is deindustrializing it, but is occurring convergence of Brazilian industry the world average. Thus, in an attempt to shed light on this debate, this study intends to identify the reasons for the deceleration of the Brazilian industry, emphasizing aspects underexplored in the literature and define whether or not the country suffers a process of deindustrialization. When analyzing various indicators, especially the quantum level we find strong indications that the deceleration of the Brazilian industry can be characterized as a deindustrialization, though still insufficient to qualify as precocious, given the loss of share in physical production in total output and the share of primary goods in the export basket

Contabilidade do crescimento pelo lado da demanda agregada: uma proposta de cálculo das contribuições ao crescimento pela demanda agregada para o Brasil de, 2000 a 2009, utilizando matrizes insumo-produto

The demand side growth accounting studies the demand aggregate component contributions in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Traditionally, international and national organizations that uses the traditional method for calculating such contributions. However, this method does not take into account the effect the induction of imports by the various components of aggregate demand on the calculation of these. As an alternative to this method are presented others studies that consider this effect, as the alternative method proposed by Lara (2013), the attribution method, proposed by Kranendonk and Verbruggen (2005) and Hoekstra and van der Helm (2010), and the method the sraffian supermultiplier, by Freitas and Dweck (2013). Was made a summary of these methods, demonstrating the similarities and differences between them. Also, in the aim to contribute to the study of the subject was developed the “method of distribution of imports” that aims to distribute imports for the various components of aggregate demand, through the information set forth in the input-output matrices and tables of resources and uses. Were accounted the contributions to the growth of macroeconomic aggregates for Brazil from 2001 to 2009 using the method of distribution, and realized comparison with the traditional method, understanding the reasons for the differences in contributions. Later was done comparisons with all the methods presented in this work, between the calculated contributions to the growth of the components of aggregate demand and the domestic and external sectors. Was verified that the methods that exist in the literature was not enough to deal with this question, and given the alternatives for contributions to the growth presented throughout this work, it is believed that the method of distribution provides the best estimates for the account of contributions by aggregate demand sector. In particular, the main advantage of this method to the others is the breakdown of the contribution of imports, separated by aggregate demand component, which allows the analysis of contribution of each component to GDP growth. Thus, this type of analysis helps to study the pattern of growth of the Brazilian economy, not just the theoretical point of view, but also empirical and basis for the decision to economic policies

Mudanças na relação entre estado e mercado na produção de habitação de interesse social em Parnamirim-RN

The formulation of public policies, particularly those relating to social housing – SH -, follow a dialectical process of construction, which are involved in the figures of the State and tha Market.The combination of the State and Market remains in constant tension and struggle for power, which provides beyond products (policies, programs and projects), periods of crises and disruptions that can give rise to new institutional arrangements. It is possible to verify a change in the relationship between the State and the Market in the formulation of public policies of SH financing, justified by the context of the Brazilian economy growth, especially after 2003, year that began the first Lula Federal Government , and through the international financial crisis (in 2008). Thus, the State and the Real Estate Market has been undergoing a process of redefinition of their interrelations, articulating new arrangements, new scales of action and new logics of financial valorization of urban space. This peculiarity demanded the rapid thinning of speech and the proposals in the reformulation of housing policies, with the primary result within the pre-existing Growth Acceleration Program – PAC -, the release of My House , My Life – PMCMV -, established by Law 1.977 of the year 2009. Given the above, this research has as study object the relationship between financing public policies of SH, promoted by the State, and behavior of Formal Housing Market. It is believed that the established roles for each agent in the new housing finance model introduced with the PMCMV, have been adapted according to the needs of each location to make this a workable policy. It remains to identify the nature of these adaptations, in other words, what has changed in the performance of each agent involved in this process. Knowing that private capital remains where there is more chance of profit, we tend to believe that most of the adjustments were made on scale of State action. The recommendation of easing urban legislation taken by PMCMV points to how the State has been making these changes in activity to implement the production of social housing by this program. We conclude that in the change for PMCMV, the direct relationship for construction and housing projects financing began to be made between the Caixa Econômica Federal bank and the builders. The city was liberated from the direct interlocutor role between all actors involved in the production of SH and could concentrate on negotiating with the parties, focused on the effectiveness of SH public policies proposed by PMCMV. This ability and willingness for dialogue and negotiation of municipal government (represented by their managers), undoubtedly, represents a key factor for rapprochement between State and Real Estate Market in the City of Parnamirim.