Métodos estatísticos recursivos aplicados ao problema de estimação de vazão de gás em plantas de Plunger-lift

This work has as main objective to find mathematical models based on linear parametric estimation techniques applied to the problem of calculating the grow of gas in oil wells. In particular we focus on achieving grow models applied to the case of wells that produce by plunger-lift technique on oil rigs, in which case, there are high peaks in the grow values that hinder their direct measurement by instruments. For this, we have developed estimators based on recursive least squares and make an analysis of statistical measures such as autocorrelation, cross-correlation, variogram and the cumulative periodogram, which are calculated recursively as data are obtained in real time from the plant in operation; the values obtained for these measures tell us how accurate the used model is and how it can be changed to better fit the measured values. The models have been tested in a pilot plant which emulates the process gas production in oil wells

Um estudo sobre a variabilidade do vento no nordeste do Brasil através de métodos estatísticos e via modelos dinâmicos de meso e micro escala

The objective of this study was to determine the seasonal and interannual variability and calculate the trends of wind speed in NEB and then validate the mesoscale numerical model for after engage with the microscale numerical model in order to get the wind resource at some locations in the NEB. For this we use two data sets of wind speed (weather stations and anemometric towers) and two dynamic models; one of mesoscale and another of microscale. We use statistical tools to evaluate and validate the data obtained. The simulations of the dynamic mesoscale model were made using data assimilation methods (Newtonian Relaxation and Kalman filter). The main results show: (i) Five homogeneous groups of wind speed in the NEB with higher values in winter and spring and with lower in summer and fall; (ii) The interannual variability of the wind speed in some groups stood out with higher values; (iii) The large-scale circulation modified by the El Niño and La Niña intensified wind speed for the groups with higher values; (iv) The trend analysis showed more significant negative values for G3, G4 and G5 in all seasons and in the annual average; (v) The performance of dynamic mesoscale model showed smaller errors in the locations Paracuru and São João and major errors were observed in Triunfo; (vi) Application of the Kalman filter significantly reduce the systematic errors shown in the simulations of the dynamic mesoscale model; (vii) The wind resource indicate that Paracuru and Triunfo are favorable areas for the generation of energy, and the coupling technique after validation showed better results for Paracuru. We conclude that the objective was achieved, making it possible to identify trends in homogeneous groups of wind behavior, and to evaluate the quality of both simulations with the dynamic model of mesoscale and microscale to answer questions as necessary before planning research projects in Wind-Energy area in the NEB

Lógica Fuzzy para Controle de pH em um Processo Petrolífero

This work proposes the design, the performance evaluation and a methodology for tuning the initial MFs parameters of output of a function based Takagi-Sugeno-Kang Fuzzy-PI controller to neutralize the pH in a stirred-tank reactor. The controller is designed to perform pH neutralization of industrial plants, mainly in units found in oil refineries where it is strongly required to mitigate uncertainties and nonlinearities. In addition, it adjusts the changes in pH regulating process, avoiding or reducing the need for retuning to maintain the desired performance. Based on the Hammerstein model, the system emulates a real plant that fits the changes in pH neutralization process of avoiding or reducing the need to retune. The controller performance is evaluated by overshoots, stabilization times, indices Integral of the Absolute Error (IAE) and Integral of the Absolute Value of the Error-weighted Time (ITAE), and using a metric developed by that takes into account both the error information and the control signal. The Fuzzy-PI controller is compared with PI and gain schedule PI controllers previously used in the testing plant, whose results can be found in the literature.

Otimização do processo de recuperação do cromo de efluentes de curtumes por microemulsões no extrator Morris

The tanning industries are those which transform animal hide or skin into leather. Due to the complexity of the transformation process, greater quantities of chemicals are being used which results in the generation of effluents with residual solids. The chromium in the residual waters generated by tanning tend to be a serious problem to the environment, therefore the recovery of this metal could result in the reduction of manufacturing costs. This metal is usually found in a trivalent form which can be converted into a hexavalent compound under acidic conditions and in the presence of organic matter. The present study was carried out with the objective to recover chromium through an extraction/re-extraction process using micro emulsions. Micro emulsions are transparent and thermodynamically stable system composed of two immiscible liquids, one forming the continuous phase and the other dispersed into micro bubbles, established by an interfacial membrane formed by surface active and co-surface active molecules. The process of recovering the chromium was carried out in two stages. The first, an extraction process, where the chromium was extracted in the micro emulsion phase and the aqueous phase in excess was separated. In the second stage, a concentrated acid was added to the micro emulsion phase rich in chromium in order to obtain a Winsor II system, where the water that formed in the micro emulsion phase separates into a new micro emulsion phase with a higher concentration of chromium, due to the lowering of the hydrophiles as well as the ionisation of the system. During the experimental procedure, a study was initiated with a synthetic solution of chromium sulphate passing onto the effluent. A Morris extractor was used in the extraction process. Tests were carried out according to the plan and the results were analysed by statistical methods in order to optimise the main parameters that influence the process: the total rate of flow (Q), stirring speed (w) and solvent rate (r). The results, after optimization, demonstrated that the best percentuals in relation to the chromium extraction (99 %) were obtained in the following operational conditions: Q= 2,0 l/h, w= 425 rpm and r= 0,375. The re-extraction was carried out at room temperature (28 °C), 40 °C and 50°C using hydrochloric acid (8 and 10 M) and sulphuric acid (8 M) as re-extracting agents. The results obtained demonstrate that the process was efficient enough in relation to the chromium extraction, reaching to re-extraction percentage higher than 95 %.

Avaliação do extrato do fungo caripia montagnei e de agonistas de PPAR - α no processo inflamatório

The mushrooms have been object of intense research in view of its potential raising of application in different sectors of the pharmacology and alimentary industry. Among diverse bioactive composites of polyssacharides nature that exist in the fungus the glucans are much searched. These are polymers of glucose and classified as the type of glicosidic linking [α, β]. Peroxisome proliferator-activated receptors (PPARs), ranscription factors belonging to the family of nuclear receptors that bind themselves o specific agonists, have shown their importance in controlling the inflammatory process. The aim of this study was to perform a chemical characterization of extract rom the mushroom Caripia montagnei, assess its antiinflammatory and antibacterial effect and determine if this effect occurs via PPAR. This mushroom is composed of carbohydrates (63.3±4.1%), lipids (21.4l±0.9%) and proteins (2.2± 0.3%). The aqueous solution resulting from the fractionation contained carbohydrates (98.7±3.3%) and protein (1.3±0.25%). Analyses of infrared spectrophotometry and of nuclear magnetic esonance demonstrated that the extract of mushroom C. montagnei is rich in β-glucans. In hioglycolate-induced peritonitis, the C. montagnei glucans (50 mg/kg) educed the inflammatory process in 65.5±5.2% and agonists, pharmacological igands, for PPAR: Wy-14643 (49.3±6.1%), PFOA (48.9±3.8%) and clofibrate in 45.2±3.2%. Sodium diclofenac showed a reduction of 81.65±0.6%. In the plantar edema, the glucans from C. montagnei (50 mg/kg) and L-NAME reduced the edema to a similar degree 91.4±0.3% and 92.8±0,5 %, respectively. In all the groups tested, nitric oxide (NO), an inflammation mediator, showed a significant reduction in the nitrate/nitrite levels when compared to the positive control (P<0.001). The C. montagnei glucans did not show cytotoxicity in the concentrations tested (2.5, 5.0, 10.0, 20.0 and 40.0 µg/100 µL). Antibacterial activity demonstrated that, unlike total extract, there was no inhibition of bacterial growth. The C. montagnei glucans show great potential for antiinflammatory applications. This effect suggests that it is mediated by PPAR activation and by COX and iNOS inhibition

Influência dos parâmetros de processo na deposição de nitreto de titânio por plasma em gaiola catódica

Titanium nitride films were grown on glass using the Cathodic Cage Plasma Deposition technique in order to verify the influence of process parameters in optical and structural properties of the films. The plasma atmosphere used was a mixture of Ar, N2 and H2, setting the Ar and N2 gas flows at 4 and 3 sccm, respectively and H2 gas flow varied from 0, 1 to 2 sccm. The deposition process was monitored by Optical Emission Spectroscopy (OES) to investigate the influence of the active species in plasma. It was observed that increasing the H2 gas flow into the plasma the luminescent intensities associated to the species changed. In this case, the luminescence of N2 (391,4nm) species was not proportional to the increasing of the H2 gas into the reactor. Other parameters investigated were diameter and number of holes in the cage. The analysis by Grazing Incidence X-Ray Diffraction (GIXRD) confirmed that the obtained films are composed by TiN and they may have variations in the nitrogen amount into the crystal and in the crystallite size. The optical microscopy images provided information about the homogeneity of the films. The atomic force microscopy (AFM) results revealed some microstructural characteristics and surface roughness. The thickness was measured by ellipsometry. The optical properties such as transmittance and reflectance (they were measured by spectrophotometry) are very sensitive to changes in the crystal lattice of the material, chemical composition and film thicknesses. Therefore, such properties are appropriate tools for verification of this process control. In general, films obtained at 0 sccm of H2 gas flow present a higher transmittance. It can be attributed to the smaller crystalline size due to a higher amount of nitrogen in the TiN lattice. The films obtained at 1 and 2 sccm of H2 gas flow have a golden appearance and XRD pattern showed peaks characteristics of TiN with higher intensity and smaller FWHM (Full Width at Half Maximum) parameter. It suggests that the hydrogen presence in the plasma makes the films more stoichiometric and becomes it more crystalline. It was observed that with higher number of holes in the lid of the cage, close to the region between the lid and the sample and the smaller diameter of the hole, the deposited film is thicker, which is justified by the most probability of plasma species reach effectively the sample and it promotes the growth of the film

Controle preditivo neural aplicado à processos petroquímicos

A pesquisa tem como objetivo desenvolver uma estrutura de controle preditivo neural, com o intuito de controlar um processo de pH, caracterizado por ser um sistema SISO (Single Input - Single Output). O controle de pH é um processo de grande importância na indústria petroquímica, onde se deseja manter constante o nível de acidez de um produto ou neutralizar o afluente de uma planta de tratamento de fluidos. O processo de controle de pH exige robustez do sistema de controle, pois este processo pode ter ganho estático e dinâmica nãolineares. O controlador preditivo neural envolve duas outras teorias para o seu desenvolvimento, a primeira referente ao controle preditivo e a outra a redes neurais artificiais (RNA s). Este controlador pode ser dividido em dois blocos, um responsável pela identificação e outro pelo o cálculo do sinal de controle. Para realizar a identificação neural é utilizada uma RNA com arquitetura feedforward multicamadas com aprendizagem baseada na metodologia da Propagação Retroativa do Erro (Error Back Propagation). A partir de dados de entrada e saída da planta é iniciado o treinamento offline da rede. Dessa forma, os pesos sinápticos são ajustados e a rede está apta para representar o sistema com a máxima precisão possível. O modelo neural gerado é usado para predizer as saídas futuras do sistema, com isso o otimizador calcula uma série de ações de controle, através da minimização de uma função objetivo quadrática, fazendo com que a saída do processo siga um sinal de referência desejado. Foram desenvolvidos dois aplicativos, ambos na plataforma Builder C++, o primeiro realiza a identificação, via redes neurais e o segundo é responsável pelo controle do processo. As ferramentas aqui implementadas e aplicadas são genéricas, ambas permitem a aplicação da estrutura de controle a qualquer novo processo

Adsorção de cobre e cromo utilizando fibra de sisal visando o tratamento da água produzida pela indústria petrolífera

Currently, the oil industry is the biggest cause of environmental pollution. The objective was to reduce the concentration of copper and chromium in the water produced by the oil industry. It was used as adsorbent natural sisal fiber Agave sp treated with nitric acid and sodium hydroxide. All vegetable fibers have physical and morphological properties that enablies the adsorption of pollutants. The basic composition of sisal is cellulose, hemicellulose and lignin. The features are typically found in the characterization of vegetable fibers, except the surface area that was practically zero. In the first stage of adsorption, it was evaluated the effect of temperature and time skeeking to optimize the execution of the factorial design. The results showed that the most feasible fiber was the one treated with acid in five hours (30°C). The second phase was a factorial design, using acid and five hours, this time was it determined in the first phase. The tests were conducted following the experimental design and the results were analyzed by statistical methods in order to optimize the main parameters that influence the process: pH, concentration (mol / L) and fiber mass/ metal solution volume. The volume / mass ratio factor showed significant interference in the adsorption process of chromium and copper. The results obtained after optimization showed that the highest percentages of extraction (98%) were obtained on the following operating conditions: pH: 5-6, Concentration: 100 ppm and mass/ volume: 1 gram of fiber/50mL solution. The results showed that the adsorption process was efficient to remove chromium and copper using sisal fibers, however, requiring further studies to optimize the process.

Modelagem e controle adaptativo de uma planta didática de nível com instrumentação industrial

The control, automation and optimization areas help to improve the processes used by industry. They contribute to a fast production line, improving the products quality and reducing the manufacturing costs. Didatic plants are good tools for research in these areas, providing a direct contact with some industrial equipaments. Given these capabilities, the main goal of this work is to model and control a didactic plant, which is a level and flow process control system with an industrial instrumentation. With a model it is possible to build a simulator for the plant that allows studies about its behaviour, without any of the real processes operational costs, like experiments with controllers. They can be tested several times before its application in a real process. Among the several types of controllers, it was used adaptive controllers, mainly the Direct Self-Tuning Regulators (DSTR) with Integral Action and the Gain Scheduling (GS). The DSTR was based on Pole-Placement design and use the Recursive Least Square to calculate the controller parameters. The characteristics of an adaptive system was very worth to guarantee a good performance when the controller was applied to the plant

Implementação de um modelo computacional para estudo do processo Fischer-Tropsch em reator de leito de lama

This work aims at the implementation and adaptation of a computational model for the study of the Fischer-Tropsch reaction in a slurry bed reactor from synthesis gas (CO+H2) for the selective production of hydrocarbons (CnHm), with emphasis on evaluation of the influence of operating conditions on the distribution of products formed during the reaction.The present model takes into account effects of rigorous phase equilibrium in a reactive flash drum, a detailed kinetic model able of predicting the formation of each chemical species of the reaction system, as well as control loops of the process variables for pressure and level of slurry phase. As a result, a system of Differential Algebraic Equations was solved using the computational code DASSL (Petzold, 1982). The consistent initialization for the problem was based on phase equilibrium formed by the existing components in the reactor. In addition, the index of the system was reduced to 1 by the introduction of control laws that govern the output of the reactor products. The results were compared qualitatively with experimental data collected in the Fischer-Tropsch Synthesis plant installed at Laboratório de Processamento de Gás - CTGÁS-ER-Natal/RN

Métodos estatisticos em cadeias de Markov

Este trabalho tem como objetivo o estudo do comportamento assintótico da estatística de Pearson (1900), que é o aparato teórico do conhecido teste qui-quadrado ou teste x2 como também é usualmente denotado. Inicialmente estudamos o comportamento da distribuição da estatística qui-quadrado de Pearson (1900) numa amostra {X1, X2,...,Xn} quando n → ∞ e pi = pi0 , 8n. Em seguida detalhamos os argumentos usados em Billingley (1960), os quais demonstram a convergência em distribuição de uma estatística, semelhante a de Pearson, baseada em uma amostra de uma cadeia de Markov, estacionária, ergódica e com espaço de estados finitos S

Contribuições ao estudo de modelagem de equações estruturais na avaliação da satisfação do cliente de serviços de comunicações móveis

No mercado de telecomunicações as transformações tecnológicas das últimas décadas aliaram-se a um cenário formado por empresas de alta tecnologia que caracterizam o setor de comunicações móveis pessoais em todo mundo. Neste contexto, as empresas deste setor preocupam-se cada vez mais com a competitividade, oferta de serviços, área de atendimento, demanda reprimida e a lealdade do cliente. Estudos de comportamento do consumidor pesquisam a satisfação e lealdade de clientes como fatores básicos para relações bem sucedidas e duradouras com as empresas. A complexidade das relações entre variáveis na avaliação da satisfação do cliente em comunicações móveis pode ser adequadamente pesquisada com a utilização de métodos estatísticos multivariados. Essa tese analisou as relações causais envolvendo os antecedentes e consequentes associados à satisfação do cliente, no segmento de comunicações móveis, bem como desenvolveu e validou um modelo comportamental do cliente no uso deste serviço, buscando explicar as relações entre os construtos envolvidos: satisfação, qualidade dos serviços, valor percebido, imagem da marca, lealdade e reclamação. Foi estabelecida uma ampla base teórica para avaliar a importância estratégica do modelo que relaciona a influência na satisfação do serviço com as percepções dos clientes e avaliada a precisão deste modelo, por meio de uma análise comparativa a utilização de três métodos de estimação dos seus parâmetros, MLE, GLS, e ULS, com o emprego de modelagem de equações estruturais. Foram feitas aplicações em análises de dados, sendo testada e avaliada empiricamente, a influência do gênero na satisfação do cliente deste setor, além de uma segmentação de mercado utilizando mapas auto-organizáveis e a correspondente validação deste processo, com modelagem de equações estruturais.Os resultados do estudo empírico produziram uma boa qualidade de ajustamento para o modelo teórico proposto, com evidências do estabelecimento de uma adequada capacidade explicativa e preditiva, destacando-se a relevância da relação causal entre a satisfação e lealdade, em consonância com diversos estudos realizados para os mercados de comunicações móveis.

Análise da atividade cognitiva do operador de sala de controle da produção de controle da produção de petróleo on-shore: uma abordagem da ergonomia para a gestão das restrições do sistema sociotécnico

This master's thesis aims to analyze the activity of the operators in a control room of the processes of production on-shore petroleum, with a focus on sociotechnical restrictions that interfere in the decision-making process and the actions of operators and therefore, the strategies (individual and collective) to regulate and maintain the operator action required and the safety of the system, together. The activity in focus involves the supervision and control of the production of thousands of barrels of oil/day in a complex and dispersed production’s structures built in an extension of 80 km. This operational framework highlights the importance of this activity for the fulfilment of the targets local and corporate efficiency, good management of the environment, health and safety of operators. This is an exploratory research and in the field, which uses the methodology of Ergonomic Analysis of the Work, composed of observational techniques and interactional, having as locus control room of the processes of production on-shore oil of an oil company. The population of this research is formed by operators in the control room of an Brazilian oil company. The results showed that the supervisory activity and control of the superheated steam injection is an complex context, demands greater attention, concentration, calculations, comparisons, trend analysis and decision making. The activity is collectively constructed between the control room operator, field operator and the supplier of steam. The research showed that the processes of communication and collaboration between the control room , fields and support staff are the key elements of this activity. The study shows that the operators have the autonomy and the elements necessary for work; and that there is continuous investments to improve the technology used and that the operators report sleep disturbances as a result of chronic exposure to night work. The study contributed with proposals for transformation of this activity: with regard to the installation of a area reserved for food in control room, the update the screens of the supervisory current operating condition, the periodic visits by room operators in the field, standardization of production reports, development assistance and standardization of nomenclature of controlling stations steam systems, to improve the conditions of realization of the activity, improve the quality of products produced by operators and contribute to reduce the possibility of slips or shifts in the activity.

Avaliação do extrato do fungo caripia montagnei e de agonistas de PPAR - α no processo inflamatório

The mushrooms have been object of intense research in view of its potential raising of application in different sectors of the pharmacology and alimentary industry. Among diverse bioactive composites of polyssacharides nature that exist in the fungus the glucans are much searched. These are polymers of glucose and classified as the type of glicosidic linking [α, β]. Peroxisome proliferator-activated receptors (PPARs), ranscription factors belonging to the family of nuclear receptors that bind themselves o specific agonists, have shown their importance in controlling the inflammatory process. The aim of this study was to perform a chemical characterization of extract rom the mushroom Caripia montagnei, assess its antiinflammatory and antibacterial effect and determine if this effect occurs via PPAR. This mushroom is composed of carbohydrates (63.3±4.1%), lipids (21.4l±0.9%) and proteins (2.2± 0.3%). The aqueous solution resulting from the fractionation contained carbohydrates (98.7±3.3%) and protein (1.3±0.25%). Analyses of infrared spectrophotometry and of nuclear magnetic esonance demonstrated that the extract of mushroom C. montagnei is rich in β-glucans. In hioglycolate-induced peritonitis, the C. montagnei glucans (50 mg/kg) educed the inflammatory process in 65.5±5.2% and agonists, pharmacological igands, for PPAR: Wy-14643 (49.3±6.1%), PFOA (48.9±3.8%) and clofibrate in 45.2±3.2%. Sodium diclofenac showed a reduction of 81.65±0.6%. In the plantar edema, the glucans from C. montagnei (50 mg/kg) and L-NAME reduced the edema to a similar degree 91.4±0.3% and 92.8±0,5 %, respectively. In all the groups tested, nitric oxide (NO), an inflammation mediator, showed a significant reduction in the nitrate/nitrite levels when compared to the positive control (P<0.001). The C. montagnei glucans did not show cytotoxicity in the concentrations tested (2.5, 5.0, 10.0, 20.0 and 40.0 µg/100 µL). Antibacterial activity demonstrated that, unlike total extract, there was no inhibition of bacterial growth. The C. montagnei glucans show great potential for antiinflammatory applications. This effect suggests that it is mediated by PPAR activation and by COX and iNOS inhibition

Influência dos parâmetros de processo na deposição de nitreto de titânio por plasma em gaiola catódica

Titanium nitride films were grown on glass using the Cathodic Cage Plasma Deposition technique in order to verify the influence of process parameters in optical and structural properties of the films. The plasma atmosphere used was a mixture of Ar, N2 and H2, setting the Ar and N2 gas flows at 4 and 3 sccm, respectively and H2 gas flow varied from 0, 1 to 2 sccm. The deposition process was monitored by Optical Emission Spectroscopy (OES) to investigate the influence of the active species in plasma. It was observed that increasing the H2 gas flow into the plasma the luminescent intensities associated to the species changed. In this case, the luminescence of N2 (391,4nm) species was not proportional to the increasing of the H2 gas into the reactor. Other parameters investigated were diameter and number of holes in the cage. The analysis by Grazing Incidence X-Ray Diffraction (GIXRD) confirmed that the obtained films are composed by TiN and they may have variations in the nitrogen amount into the crystal and in the crystallite size. The optical microscopy images provided information about the homogeneity of the films. The atomic force microscopy (AFM) results revealed some microstructural characteristics and surface roughness. The thickness was measured by ellipsometry. The optical properties such as transmittance and reflectance (they were measured by spectrophotometry) are very sensitive to changes in the crystal lattice of the material, chemical composition and film thicknesses. Therefore, such properties are appropriate tools for verification of this process control. In general, films obtained at 0 sccm of H2 gas flow present a higher transmittance. It can be attributed to the smaller crystalline size due to a higher amount of nitrogen in the TiN lattice. The films obtained at 1 and 2 sccm of H2 gas flow have a golden appearance and XRD pattern showed peaks characteristics of TiN with higher intensity and smaller FWHM (Full Width at Half Maximum) parameter. It suggests that the hydrogen presence in the plasma makes the films more stoichiometric and becomes it more crystalline. It was observed that with higher number of holes in the lid of the cage, close to the region between the lid and the sample and the smaller diameter of the hole, the deposited film is thicker, which is justified by the most probability of plasma species reach effectively the sample and it promotes the growth of the film