16 resultados para Causalidade

em Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte(UFRN)


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Currently the organizations are passing for continuous cycles of changes due to necessity of survival in the work market. The administration of the future points a way to the organizations of today and tomorrow, the search of the competitiveness from loyalty and motivation of its staff. Of this form, the model of the Auditoria do Sistema Humano (ASH), developed for Spanish researchers and that now it is being applied in Brazil, contemplates a series of dimensions about Human Resources management quality in the companies and the organizational effectiveness, such as the environment where the company is inserted, the strategies, the organizational drawing, the psychological and psychosocial processes, e the reached results. In this direction, the present research analyzed the factors of job satisfaction and organizational commitment, making, also, a relation of causality between the same ones. The quantitative-descriptive research had as population the employees of twenty three nourishing industries of the State of Rio Grande do Norte (Brazil), registered in the Federacy of the Industries of the state. The collection of the data occurred for the months of October of 2005 and March of 2006, by means of the application of questionnaire of model ASH. The sample was composed for 197 employees, however it was observed presence of five outliers, that they had been excluded from the analysis of the data. To extract the dimensions of the satisfaction and the commitment and identification the factorial analysis was used, with extraction method of principal components, rotation Varimax and normalization Kaiser. The gotten dimensions had been evaluated with the calculation of the coefficient Alpha of Cronbach. The factorial analysis of the pointers of the organizational commitment and identification had extracted ten factors. Of these, four had gotten significance of the analyses inside: affective commitment, values commitment, continuance commitment and necessity commitment. The result of the analysis of the pointers of job satisfaction indicated four factors: extrinsic, motivations, relation with the friends and auto-accomplishment. To deal with the data the relation between job satisfaction and organizational commitment it was used technique of multiple regression. The correlation between commitment and satisfaction was satisfactory, detaching the affective commitment with bigger index of correlation, followed of the affective one

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The present paper has the purpose of investigate the dynamics of the volatility structure in the shrimp prices in the Brazilian fish market. Therefore, a description of the initial aspects of the shrimp price series was made. From this information, statistics tests were made and selected univariate models to be price predictors. Then, it was verified the existence of relationship of long-term equilibrium between the Brazilian and American imported shrimp and if, confirmed the relationship, whether or not there is a causal link between these assets, considering that the two countries had presented trade relations over the years. It is presented as an exploratory research of applied nature with quantitative approach. The database was collected through direct contact with the Companhia de Entrepostos e Armazéns Gerais de São Paulo (CEAGESP) and on the official website of American import, National Marine Fisheries Service - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NMFS- NOAA). The results showed that the great variability in the active price is directly related with the gain and loss of the market agents. The price series presents a strong seasonal and biannual effect. The average structure of price of shrimp in the last 12 years was R$ 11.58 and external factors besides the production and marketing (U.S. antidumping, floods and pathologies) strongly affected the prices. Among the tested models for predicting prices of shrimp, four were selected, which through the prediction methodologies of one step forward of horizon 12, proved to be statistically more robust. It was found that there is weak evidence of long-term equilibrium between the Brazilian and American shrimp, where equivalently, was not found a causal link between them. We concluded that the dynamic pricing of commodity shrimp is strongly influenced by external productive factors and that these phenomena cause seasonal effects in the prices. There is no relationship of long-term stability between the Brazilian and American shrimp prices, but it is known that Brazil imports USA production inputs, which somehow shows some dependence productive. To the market agents, the risk of interferences of the external prices cointegrated to Brazilian is practically inexistent. Through statistical modeling is possible to minimize the risk and uncertainty embedded in the fish market, thus, the sales and marketing strategies for the Brazilian shrimp can be consolidated and widespread

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This paper comprises an investigation on the influence of the variable family backgrounds (father school level, mother school level and family income) over the pupil s performance in admissions examination (entrance test or PROITEC) at Instituto Federal de Educação, Ciência e Tecnologia do Rio Grande do Norte (IFRN). From that point of view, the main goal of this research is to analyze the influence of the family background as a determiner of the pupil´s performance in the access to Technical and Professional education at IFRN. Secondary data were used from two databases (entrance test and PROITEC) adding up to 19.226 observations to the vacancies offered in the year of 2013. Aiming at achieving the proposed goal, a conceptual model composed of three hypothesis was developed. The results were presented in four stages: stage I presentation of the descriptive statistical results of the two databases; stage II separation of the campi in clusters; stage III analysis of multiple regressions; stage IV analysis of the logistics regressions. Two statistical tests were used to validate the hypothesis: T-test and Wald test. Hypothesis 1 and 2 were confirmed and H3 was refused. The results presented favorable causal connections to the family income and the father school level variables (with bigger effect for fathers with a higher education degree). The mother school level variable did not provide statistical significance for this research. Based on this result, after this work, this institution is to develop a strategic plan to assist in the success rate of students preparing diagnoses in order to diminish the effects of the variables that impacted negatively

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Objetivo: analisar o estado da arte dos aspectos diagnósticos, periciais e jurisprudenciais das LER/DORT (Lesões por Esforços Repetitivos / Distúrbios Osteomusculares Relacionados ao Trabalho) no Brasil. Materiais e Método: trata-se de pesquisa descritiva, de natureza qualitativa, com formato documental, utilizando-se a técnica de análise de conteúdo. A avaliação evolutiva da legislação previdenciária relacionada as LER/DORT foi realizada através da pesquisa no banco de dados disponibilizado pelo Governo Federal e mediante a consulta ao DATAPREV/Sislex. A avaliação dos aspectos diagnósticos foi instrumentalizada através, principalmente, de artigos científicos publicados entre 2003 e 2008, nas línguas portuguesa, inglesa, espanhola e francesa, relacionados com os métodos de diagnósticos complementares das LER-DORT (ressonância magnética, tomografia computadorizada, ultrassonografia e eletroneuromiografia). As jurisprudências foram obtidas através da busca dos julgados sobre o tema, entre 2003 e 2008, pertencentes ao Supremo Tribunal Federal, Superior Tribunal de Justiça, Tribunais Regionais Federais, Tribunal Superior do Trabalho e Tribunais Regionais do Trabalho. Resultados: foram identificados 48 artigos abordando os aspectos diagnósticos das LER-DORT, observando-se que os exames por ressonância magnética, ultrassonografia e eletromiografia demonstraram ser mais efetivos, dentro das suas especificidades, para a complementação do exame clínico de patologias relacionadas às LER-DORT. A análise das 123 jurisprudências selecionadas demonstrou, de forma geral, que as LER-DORT equiparam-se ao acidente de trabalho, devendo apresentar nexo de causalidade (atestado através de laudo médico-pericial) e, ainda, ensejam a ação por danos morais, a qual, devido à EC nº 45 passou a ser competência da Justiça do Trabalho. O Estado da arte dos aspectos periciais encontra-se representado pela vigência da Instrução Normativa n. 98/2003, a qual traz como aspecto fundamental a determinação de novos parâmetros a serem considerados na definição de um quadro de LER-DORT, dispondo, ainda, sobre a conduta ética que deve ser adotada pelo médico perito, bem como chama a atenção para a necessidade dessas doenças do trabalho serem comunicadas às autoridadades competentes, através da emissão da Comunicação de Acidente de Trabalho (CAT). Conclusão: as LER-DORT representam, hoje, um problema de importante impacto, não apenas previdenciário, mas também econômico em diversos países, nos quais o Brasil encontra-se inserido. Estudos sobre o estado da arte relacionados às LER-DORT são fundamentais para auxiliar na construção de um modelo crítico e consciente que colabore com a garantia de sustentabilidade do sistema previdenciário no Brasil

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The Federal Constitution of 1988, when taking care of the economical order, denotes special concern in the abuses of the economical power and the disloyal competition. The mark to mediate of all this is, in fact, the defense and the consumer's protection, once this is final addressee of whatever if it puts at the consumption market. The coming of the Law 8.078/90, Code of Protection and Defense of the Consumer, inaugurates a time of effective concern with the homogeneous individual interests originating from of the consumption relationships. In this point, the focus of main to face of the present work lives, in other words, the protection of the right to the individual property, especially manifests in the exercise of the trade freedom that keeps direct relationship with the respective social function the one that is destined. The code of the consumer's defense doesn't just take care of this, but also of the other star of the relationships of the consumption. When affirming in the interruption VI of the art. 4th that the national politics of those relationships, finds ballast in the prohibition and repression efficient of all of the abuses committed in the consumption relationships, keeping inherent relationship-causality in the economical order, sculpted for the article 170 in the Constitution of 1988. In the generic plan, the mark of the present work is to question concerning the limits of the trade freedom and previsible collisions with protection norms and the consumer's defense, as well as factual convergences of those small systems, especially in what he/she refers to the innate interests to the suppliers. In the specific plan, we aspirated to identify the protection device-commands to the actors of the trade relationship, capable to guarantee the free competition in a global economy of market, seeking especially the Well-being, for soon afterwards, in an analytical perspective, to discover the possible applications that it holds the Federal Constitution, in headquarters of economical freedoms. It was observed that the consumer today doesn't need only of laws that their needs, fruit of the vulnerability that it is him/her meditate innate. He/she lacks, yes, of effective mechanisms that prevent lesions that can be them impinged by the suppliers at the time in that you/they are useful to repair the damages when happened, punishing the author of the damage

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The methodology Balanced Scorecard (BSC) focuses on the major critical issues of modern organizations, whether with or without profit. The measurement of the effective performance of the latter is by evaluating the successful implementation of organizational strategy. The aim of this paper is to present the development of a system of performance measurement strategy for a nonprofit organization, whose object of study is the Associação de Apoio as Comunidades do Campo - AACC, in the context of the BSC methodology of Kaplan and Norton. The methodology of this case study is an exploratory, descriptive and qualitative, and diagnose the coherence of the Strategy Map in an organization, based strategic planning from 2010 to 2012. Initially conducted a literature review covering the main aspects of strategy maps and performance evaluation involving the translation of the BSC and strategy evaluation. The main results of the proposed approach refers to evaluation of overall scores for each dimension of the BSC methodology, financial, customer, internal processes, learning and growth. These results are able to help the organization evaluate and revise their strategy and, in general, to adopt management methods more accurately. Data collection is centered on interviews with semi-structured questionnaire. The findings highlight on balancing and alignment of strategic objectives, low causality map, strategic communication insufficient and fragmented. For interviewees organizational culture is the biggest impediment to structuring a management model based on indicators and strategic process should be initiated by non-financial indicators gradually. The performance indicators of the AACC/RN portray more meritocracy operational procedures of social projects in the context of the Strategic Map determined in a shortterm over the long term. However, there is evidence of improved performance management and strategic taken as a basis of planning as both the strategic map structured. Therefore, the nonprofits need to adopt a form of management that enables planning, setting objectives and targets that provide the continuity of its activities, and generating instruments that can measure the financial performance and non-financial, in order to develop strategic actions for growth and sustainability

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This work deals with a mathematical fundament for digital signal processing under point view of interval mathematics. Intend treat the open problem of precision and repesention of data in digital systems, with a intertval version of signals representation. Signals processing is a rich and complex area, therefore, this work makes a cutting with focus in systems linear invariant in the time. A vast literature in the area exists, but, some concepts in interval mathematics need to be redefined or to be elaborated for the construction of a solid theory of interval signal processing. We will construct a basic fundaments for signal processing in the interval version, such as basic properties linearity, stability, causality, a version to intervalar of linear systems e its properties. They will be presented interval versions of the convolution and the Z-transform. Will be made analysis of convergences of systems using interval Z-transform , a essentially interval distance, interval complex numbers , application in a interval filter.

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In this work we use Interval Mathematics to establish interval counterparts for the main tools used in digital signal processing. More specifically, the approach developed here is oriented to signals, systems, sampling, quantization, coding and Fourier transforms. A detailed study for some interval arithmetics which handle with complex numbers is provided; they are: complex interval arithmetic (or rectangular), circular complex arithmetic, and interval arithmetic for polar sectors. This lead us to investigate some properties that are relevant for the development of a theory of interval digital signal processing. It is shown that the sets IR and R(C) endowed with any correct arithmetic is not an algebraic field, meaning that those sets do not behave like real and complex numbers. An alternative to the notion of interval complex width is also provided and the Kulisch- Miranker order is used in order to write complex numbers in the interval form enabling operations on endpoints. The use of interval signals and systems is possible thanks to the representation of complex values into floating point systems. That is, if a number x 2 R is not representable in a floating point system F then it is mapped to an interval [x;x], such that x is the largest number in F which is smaller than x and x is the smallest one in F which is greater than x. This interval representation is the starting point for definitions like interval signals and systems which take real or complex values. It provides the extension for notions like: causality, stability, time invariance, homogeneity, additivity and linearity to interval systems. The process of quantization is extended to its interval counterpart. Thereafter the interval versions for: quantization levels, quantization error and encoded signal are provided. It is shown that the interval levels of quantization represent complex quantization levels and the classical quantization error ranges over the interval quantization error. An estimation for the interval quantization error and an interval version for Z-transform (and hence Fourier transform) is provided. Finally, the results of an Matlab implementation is given

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This work whose title is "The transcendental arguments: Kant Andy Hume's problem" has as its main objective to interpret Kant's answer to Hume's problem in the light of the conjunction of the causality and induction themes which is equivalent to skeptical- naturalist reading of the latter. In this sense, this initiative complements the previous treatment seen in our dissertation, where the same issue had been discussed from a merely skeptical reading that Kant got from Hume thought and was only examined causality. Among the specific objectives, we list the following: a) critical philosophy fulfills three basic functions, a founding, one negative and one would argue that the practical use of reason, here named as defensive b) the Kantian solution of Hume's problem in the first critisism would fulfill its founding and negative functions of critique of reason; c) the Kantian treatment of the theme of induction in other criticisms would will fulfill the defense function of critique of reason; d) that the evidence of Kant's answer to Hume's problem are more consistent when will be satisfied these three functions or moments of criticism. The basic structure of the work consists of three parts: the first the genesis of Hume's problem - our intention is to reconstruct Hume's problem, analyzing it from the perspective of two definitions of cause, where the dilution of the first definition in the second match the reduction of psychological knowledge to the probability of following the called naturalization of causal relations; whereas in the second - Legality and Causality - it is stated that when considering Hume in the skeptic-naturalist option, Kant is not entitled to respond by transcendental argument A􀁴B; A⊢B from the second Analogy, evidence that is rooted in the position of contemporary thinkers, such as Strawson and Allison; in third part - Purpose and Induction - admits that Kant responds to Hume on the level of regulative reason use, although the development of this test exceeds the limits of the founding function of criticism. And this is articulated in both the Introduction and Concluding Remarks by meeting the defensive [and negative] function of criticism. In this context, based on the use of so-called transcendental arguments that project throughout the critical trilogy, we provide solution to a recurring issue that recurs at several points in our submission and concerning to the "existence and / or the necessity of empirical causal laws. In this light, our thesis is that transcendental arguments are only an apodictic solution to the Hume s skeptical-naturalist problem when is at stake a practical project in which the interest of reason is ensured, as will, in short, proved in our final considerations

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Attempts to explain child labor, for the most part, have been reduced to the economic aspect, looking to establish a causal relationship between work and poverty. Without disregarding this aspect, we intend to approach this phenomenon considering other aspects that could be contributing towards its maintenance. We seek, above all, to articulate it with the concepts of disciplinary power and ideology. The present study, therefore, tries to consider these aspects with the intention of learning the reasons that the mothers and the teachers produce concerning child labor in the cultivation of vegetables. We elected these participants because we considered that child labor has been reinforced by the disciplinary institutions and proponents of ideology, the family and the school, here represented, respectively, by the mothers and the teachers. To affect this study, we created focused groups with the mothers whose children are students and work in the cultivation of vegetables in Gramorezinho (neighborhood situated in the northern part of Natal, RN) and with the teachers of the neighborhood school (Escola Lourdes Goudeiro). The discussion of the participants was handled according to the perspective of discursive practices, attempting to articulate them with the notions of ideology and disciplinary power. In general, we perceived how much ideology and discipline are immersed in the discursive practices of the participants. Whereas, even though in some moments the reference to work as being something that takes time from the child to study and play is apparent, the participants attribute great importance to child labor. Both for the teachers and for the mothers, work is something that can free the children from laziness, from becoming criminals and from using drugs. It too constitutes an important alternative to idleness and to the permanence of the child in the streets

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This study analysed the creation of businesses by entrepreneur women in the Currais Novos city, looking for verifying if they used making decision processes aligned to the Effectuation logic throughout the creation of their companies. To this, was accomplished a multiple cases and exploratory study, whit a qualitative approach of analyse, using the thematic life history technique that match accounts and semi-structured interview route, being accomplished like a long interview, where the researcher interact with the informer continuously. The semi-structured interview route was created by the adaptation of the interview route used by Tasic (2007). The present study appealed to a intentional selection of individuals in function of their importance in relation to the boarded theme. This means that the individuals were chosen in function of their social and theoretical representatively inside the considered situation. The participant individuals of this research were five entrepreneur women that act in the Currais Novos city, owners of five different companies. To the data treatment and analyse, was chosen the content analyse technique. This study worked with a priori theoretical categories. The categories of analyse in this study was obtained with base in the Effectuation approach (SARASVATHY, 2001a, 2001b, 2008), that is an alternative model of making decision to the classic model based in the causality principle. These categories are Clarity of Initial Aims , Tolerance to the Lost and Initials Investments , Control of Resources ( who I am , what I know and who I know ) and Promoting Over Contingencies . As result, the entrepreneur women researched, in a general way, hadn t clear initial aims at the companies creation moment, hadn t aversion to the risk to lose the time and the money that they were investing in the company in formation, they highlighted the products and services identity that offered with a strong link with Seridó region, they had experience in the field of activity in which they decided to open their companies, had the commitment of partners in the beginning of the business and they knew to transform the initial difficulties in opportunities. By the end, this study conclude that the entrepreneur women studied used, in a big part, making decision processes aligned to the Effectuation logic throughout the creation of their companies

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In this dissertation, after a brief review on the Einstein s General Relativity Theory and its application to the Friedmann-Lemaitre-Robertson-Walker (FLRW) cosmological models, we present and discuss the alternative theories of gravity dubbed f(R) gravity. These theories come about when one substitute in the Einstein-Hilbert action the Ricci curvature R by some well behaved nonlinear function f(R). They provide an alternative way to explain the current cosmic acceleration with no need of invoking neither a dark energy component, nor the existence of extra spatial dimensions. In dealing with f(R) gravity, two different variational approaches may be followed, namely the metric and the Palatini formalisms, which lead to very different equations of motion. We briefly describe the metric formalism and then concentrate on the Palatini variational approach to the gravity action. We make a systematic and detailed derivation of the field equations for Palatini f(R) gravity, which generalize the Einsteins equations of General Relativity, and obtain also the generalized Friedmann equations, which can be used for cosmological tests. As an example, using recent compilations of type Ia Supernovae observations, we show how the f(R) = R − fi/Rn class of gravity theories explain the recent observed acceleration of the universe by placing reasonable constraints on the free parameters fi and n. We also examine the question as to whether Palatini f(R) gravity theories permit space-times in which causality, a fundamental issue in any physical theory [22], is violated. As is well known, in General Relativity there are solutions to the viii field equations that have causal anomalies in the form of closed time-like curves, the renowned Gödel model being the best known example of such a solution. Here we show that every perfect-fluid Gödel-type solution of Palatini f(R) gravity with density and pressure p that satisfy the weak energy condition + p 0 is necessarily isometric to the Gödel geometry, demonstrating, therefore, that these theories present causal anomalies in the form of closed time-like curves. This result extends a theorem on Gödel-type models to the framework of Palatini f(R) gravity theory. We derive an expression for a critical radius rc (beyond which causality is violated) for an arbitrary Palatini f(R) theory. The expression makes apparent that the violation of causality depends on the form of f(R) and on the matter content components. We concretely examine the Gödel-type perfect-fluid solutions in the f(R) = R−fi/Rn class of Palatini gravity theories, and show that for positive matter density and for fi and n in the range permitted by the observations, these theories do not admit the Gödel geometry as a perfect-fluid solution of its field equations. In this sense, f(R) gravity theory remedies the causal pathology in the form of closed timelike curves which is allowed in General Relativity. We also examine the violation of causality of Gödel-type by considering a single scalar field as the matter content. For this source, we show that Palatini f(R) gravity gives rise to a unique Gödeltype solution with no violation of causality. Finally, we show that by combining a perfect fluid plus a scalar field as sources of Gödel-type geometries, we obtain both solutions in the form of closed time-like curves, as well as solutions with no violation of causality

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A mortalidade infantil é tida como um indicador sensível para descrever as condições de vida e de saúde de uma população, sendo, portanto, interpretada como a estimativa do risco de um nascido vivo morrer antes de completar o primeiro ano de vida. Esse indicador é considerado elevado quando atinge patamares superiores a 50/1.000 nascidos vivos, médios quando se encontra entre 20 e 49/1.000 e mais baixos quando está até 20/1.000. No Brasil, a Mortalidade Infantil tem evidenciado variações ao longo dos anos, e nas duas últimas décadas esse indicador tem sofrido um acentuado decréscimo, provavelmente devido à melhoria no acesso aos serviços de saúde, ao saneamento básico, redução da taxa de fecundidade, melhoria das condições de vida e implementação de tecnologias na atenção à saúde. O objetivo principal do estudo foi avaliar a tendência na mortalidade infantil no município de Garanhuns no período de 2003 a 2012, segundo áreas cobertas e não cobertas pela estratégia saúde da família. Foi realizado um estudo de série temporal, e para isso foram coletados os dados referentes aos nascidos vivos e óbitos de menores de 01 (um) ano através do Sistema de Informações de Atenção Básica – SIAB, nas áreas cobertas e não cobertas pela estratégia, a fim de estabelecer relação de possível causalidade entre a intervenção e o indicador. Os resultados foram apresentados em gráficos, com a curva da Mortalidade Infantil no município de Garanhuns entre os anos de 2003 e 2012 segmentado através das áreas cobertas e não cobertas pela estratégia saúde da família ao longo do mesmo período. Após a análise dos resultados, observou-se uma tendência de queda no coeficiente de mortalidade infantil tanto nas áreas cobertas pela estratégia saúde da família quanto nas áreas cobertas pelo PACS, e que não foi possível estabelecer isoladamente uma maior redução da mortalidade infantil em áreas cobertas pela estratégia. No entanto, os resultados das ações desenvolvidas pela estratégia saúde da família são consistentes e plausíveis de causar impacto no declínio da mortalidade infantil, sobretudo as ações voltadas para a saúde da mulher e da criança

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Currently the organizations are passing for continuous cycles of changes due to necessity of survival in the work market. The administration of the future points a way to the organizations of today and tomorrow, the search of the competitiveness from loyalty and motivation of its staff. Of this form, the model of the Auditoria do Sistema Humano (ASH), developed for Spanish researchers and that now it is being applied in Brazil, contemplates a series of dimensions about Human Resources management quality in the companies and the organizational effectiveness, such as the environment where the company is inserted, the strategies, the organizational drawing, the psychological and psychosocial processes, e the reached results. In this direction, the present research analyzed the factors of job satisfaction and organizational commitment, making, also, a relation of causality between the same ones. The quantitative-descriptive research had as population the employees of twenty three nourishing industries of the State of Rio Grande do Norte (Brazil), registered in the Federacy of the Industries of the state. The collection of the data occurred for the months of October of 2005 and March of 2006, by means of the application of questionnaire of model ASH. The sample was composed for 197 employees, however it was observed presence of five outliers, that they had been excluded from the analysis of the data. To extract the dimensions of the satisfaction and the commitment and identification the factorial analysis was used, with extraction method of principal components, rotation Varimax and normalization Kaiser. The gotten dimensions had been evaluated with the calculation of the coefficient Alpha of Cronbach. The factorial analysis of the pointers of the organizational commitment and identification had extracted ten factors. Of these, four had gotten significance of the analyses inside: affective commitment, values commitment, continuance commitment and necessity commitment. The result of the analysis of the pointers of job satisfaction indicated four factors: extrinsic, motivations, relation with the friends and auto-accomplishment. To deal with the data the relation between job satisfaction and organizational commitment it was used technique of multiple regression. The correlation between commitment and satisfaction was satisfactory, detaching the affective commitment with bigger index of correlation, followed of the affective one

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The present paper has the purpose of investigate the dynamics of the volatility structure in the shrimp prices in the Brazilian fish market. Therefore, a description of the initial aspects of the shrimp price series was made. From this information, statistics tests were made and selected univariate models to be price predictors. Then, it was verified the existence of relationship of long-term equilibrium between the Brazilian and American imported shrimp and if, confirmed the relationship, whether or not there is a causal link between these assets, considering that the two countries had presented trade relations over the years. It is presented as an exploratory research of applied nature with quantitative approach. The database was collected through direct contact with the Companhia de Entrepostos e Armazéns Gerais de São Paulo (CEAGESP) and on the official website of American import, National Marine Fisheries Service - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NMFS- NOAA). The results showed that the great variability in the active price is directly related with the gain and loss of the market agents. The price series presents a strong seasonal and biannual effect. The average structure of price of shrimp in the last 12 years was R$ 11.58 and external factors besides the production and marketing (U.S. antidumping, floods and pathologies) strongly affected the prices. Among the tested models for predicting prices of shrimp, four were selected, which through the prediction methodologies of one step forward of horizon 12, proved to be statistically more robust. It was found that there is weak evidence of long-term equilibrium between the Brazilian and American shrimp, where equivalently, was not found a causal link between them. We concluded that the dynamic pricing of commodity shrimp is strongly influenced by external productive factors and that these phenomena cause seasonal effects in the prices. There is no relationship of long-term stability between the Brazilian and American shrimp prices, but it is known that Brazil imports USA production inputs, which somehow shows some dependence productive. To the market agents, the risk of interferences of the external prices cointegrated to Brazilian is practically inexistent. Through statistical modeling is possible to minimize the risk and uncertainty embedded in the fish market, thus, the sales and marketing strategies for the Brazilian shrimp can be consolidated and widespread