65 resultados para Análise de regressão

em Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte(UFRN)


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Telecommunication is one of the most dynamic and strategic areas in the world. Many technological innovations has modified the way information is exchanged. Information and knowledge are now shared in networks. Broadband Internet is the new way of sharing contents and information. This dissertation deals with performance indicators related to maintenance services of telecommunications networks and uses models of multivariate regression to estimate churn, which is the loss of customers to other companies. In a competitive environment, telecommunications companies have devised strategies to minimize the loss of customers. Loosing customers presents a higher cost than obtaining new ones. Corporations have plenty of data stored in a diversity of databases. Usually the data are not explored properly. This work uses the Knowledge Discovery in Databases (KDD) to establish rules and new models to explain how churn, as a dependent variable, are related to a diversity of service indicators, such as time to deploy the service (in hours), time to repair (in hours), and so on. Extraction of meaningful knowledge is, in many cases, a challenge. Models were tested and statistically analyzed. The work also shows results that allows the analysis and identification of which quality services indicators influence the churn. Actions are also proposed to solve, at least in part, this problem

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Nowadays, telecommunications is one of the most dynamic and strategic areas in the world. Organizations are always seeking to find new management practices within an ever increasing competitive environment where resources are getting scarce. In this scenario, data obtained from business and corporate processes have even greater importance, although this data is not yet adequately explored. Knowledge Discovery in Databases (KDD) appears then, as an option to allow the study of complex problems in different areas of management. This work proposes both a systematization of KDD activities using concepts from different methodologies, such as CRISP-DM, SEMMA and FAYYAD approaches and a study concerning the viability of multivariate regression analysis models to explain corporative telecommunications sales using performance indicators. Thus, statistical methods were outlined to analyze the effects of such indicators on the behavior of business productivity. According to business and standard statistical analysis, equations were defined and fit to their respective determination coefficients. Tests of hypotheses were also conducted on parameters with the purpose of validating the regression models. The results show that there is a relationship between these development indicators and the amount of sales

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior

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The International Labor Organization (OIT) estimates that there are around 118 million children subjected to child labor around the world. In Brazil, there are 3.5 million workers aged between 5 and 17. This exploitation practice constitutes a serious social problem, including of Public Health, since these workers are exposed to a wide range of risks, such as those related to health, physical integrity and even to life, which may cause them to become sick adults and/or interrupt their lives prematurely. Therefore, this research aims to investigate the relationship between the frequency of child labor in the age group of 10 to 13 years and some socio-economic indicators. It is a quantitative research in an ecological study whose levels of analysis are the Brazilian municipalities grouped in 161 regions, defined from socioeconomic criteria. The dependent variable of this study was the prevalence of child labor in the age group of 10 to 13 years. The independent variables were selected after a correlation between the 2010 Census of child labor in the age group of 10 to 13 years and secondary data had been conducted, adopting two main independent variables: funds from the Family Allowance Program (PBF) per 1,000 inhabitants and Funds from the Child Labor Eradication Program (PETI) per a thousand inhabitants. Initially, it was conducted a descriptive analysis of the variables of the study, then, a bivariate analysis, and the correlation matrix was built. At last, the Multiple Linear Regression stratified analysis was performed. The results of this survey indicate that public policies , like the Bolsa Familia Program Features per 1000 inhabitants and Resources Program for the Eradication of Child Labour to be allocated to municipalities with HDI < 0.697 represent a decrease in the rate of child labor ; These programs have the resources to be invested in municipalities with HDI > = 0.697 have no effect on the rate of child labor. Other adjustment variables showed significance, among these the municipal Human Development Index (IDH), years of schooling at 18 years of age, illiteracy at 15 years of age or more, employees without employment contract at 18 years of age and the Gini Index. It is understood that the child labor issue is complex. The problem is associated, although not restricted to, poverty, the social exclusion and inequality that exist in Brazil, but other factors of cultural and economic nature, as well as of organization of production, also account for its aggravation. Fighting child labor involves a wide intersectoral articulation, shared and integrated with several public policies, among them health, sports, culture, agriculture, labor and human rights, with a view to guaranteeing the integrality of the rights of children and adolescents in situation of labor and of their respective families

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The time series analysis has played an increasingly important role in weather and climate studies. The success of these studies depends crucially on the knowledge of the quality of climate data such as, for instance, air temperature and rainfall data. For this reason, one of the main challenges for the researchers in this field is to obtain homogeneous series. A time series of climate data is considered homogeneous when the values of the observed data can change only due to climatic factors, i.e., without any interference from external non-climatic factors. Such non-climatic factors may produce undesirable effects in the time series, as unrealistic homogeneity breaks, trends and jumps. In the present work it was investigated climatic time series for the city of Natal, RN, namely air temperature and rainfall time series, for the period spanning from 1961 to 2012. The main purpose was to carry out an analysis in order to check the occurrence of homogeneity breaks or trends in the series under investigation. To this purpose, it was applied some basic statistical procedures, such as normality and independence tests. The occurrence of trends was investigated by linear regression analysis, as well as by the Spearman and Mann-Kendall tests. The homogeneity was investigated by the SNHT, as well as by the Easterling-Peterson and Mann-Whitney-Pettit tests. Analyzes with respect to normality showed divergence in their results. The von Neumann ratio test showed that in the case of the air temperature series the data are not independent and identically distributed (iid), whereas for the rainfall series the data are iid. According to the applied testings, both series display trends. The mean air temperature series displays an increasing trend, whereas the rainfall series shows an decreasing trend. Finally, the homogeneity tests revealed that all series under investigations present inhomogeneities, although they breaks depend on the applied test. In summary, the results showed that the chosen techniques may be applied in order to verify how well the studied time series are characterized. Therefore, these results should be used as a guide for further investigations about the statistical climatology of Natal or even of any other place.

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The scope of this study was to identify socioeconomic contextual and health care factors in primary care associated with maternal near misses and their marker conditions. This is an ecological study that used aggregated data of 63 clusters formed by the municipalities of State of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil, using the Skater method of area regionalization, as the unit of analysis. The ratio of maternal near misses and their marker conditions were obtained from the Hospital Information System of the Brazilian Unified Health System. In multiple linear regression analysis, there was a significant association between maternal near misses and variables of poverty and poor primary health care. Hypertensive disorders were also associated with poverty and poor primary care and the occurrence of hemorrhaging was associated with infant mortality. It was observed that the occurrence of maternal near misses is linked to unfavorable socioeconomic conditions and poor quality health care that are a reflection of public policies that accentuate health inequalities.

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The scope of this study was to identify socioeconomic contextual and health care factors in primary care associated with maternal near misses and their marker conditions. This is an ecological study that used aggregated data of 63 clusters formed by the municipalities of State of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil, using the Skater method of area regionalization, as the unit of analysis. The ratio of maternal near misses and their marker conditions were obtained from the Hospital Information System of the Brazilian Unified Health System. In multiple linear regression analysis, there was a significant association between maternal near misses and variables of poverty and poor primary health care. Hypertensive disorders were also associated with poverty and poor primary care and the occurrence of hemorrhaging was associated with infant mortality. It was observed that the occurrence of maternal near misses is linked to unfavorable socioeconomic conditions and poor quality health care that are a reflection of public policies that accentuate health inequalities.

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The characteristics profile of individuals who develop AIDS in Brazil has changed over time. Among these modifications, a worrying finding is the increased incidence of AIDS in the elderly across the country. But, however, is not yet clear whether the increase in AIDS cases is sufficient to produce a change in the trend of measures in recent years in the Brazilian states, and this increase has an effect from the socioeconomic and demographic indicators. In this sense, the objective of this study is to analyze the AIDS incidence rates among the elderly in Brazil and its effect on socioeconomic and demographic inequalities in the period 2000 to 2012. This is an ecological time-series study to meet behavior of the time series of the incidence rates of AIDS in the elderly from 2000 to 2012. the rates were calculated using the secondary data from Diseases Information System Notification and the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. Data were analyzed statistically to know the trends in incidence rates, by polynomial regression model and joinpoint log-linear regression model, but also the simple linear regression analysis to find the relationship of trends with variables socioeconomic and demographic. SPSS 20.0® and Joinpoint 4.1.1 programs were used. All tests were carried out considering a significance of 5%. After the analysis, in Brazil were reported 62,052 new cases of AIDS in the elderly from 2000 to 2012. During this period, a significant increase was found for males, both aged 50-59 years (APPC: 3.46 %, p <0.001), such as above 59 years (AAPC: 4.38%; p <0.001). For females, the increase was significant and has the largest increments in the time series, when compared to males in both age groups (AAPC: 4.62%, p <0.001 and AAPC: 6.53%; p <0.001) respectively. The largest increases are observed in women and in the states of North and Northeast. In the Southeast Region is observed stabilization of rates throughout the series. The reason of trends between the sexes had a significant reduction, but also an approach in both age groups of the study, reaching a ratio of 1.7 males for every female in the youngest age group. The trends were related to illiteracy rates, with increasing social inequality and the lowest human development in the Brazilian states. We conclude that in Brazil the incidence of AIDS in the elderly follows an increasing trend in individuals over 50 years. Noteworthy are the highest rates of study in women and in the states of North and Northeast. In this sense, the country needs to enhance policies towards older people with STD / AIDS, training health professionals and developing effective measures for the prevention and early diagnosis of infected people, especially in places with limited resources and high social inequality. In the long term, it is developing new studies to understand whether the measures taken were effective in reducing the trends identified in this study.

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OBJETIVO: avaliar a sintomatologia climatérica e fatores relacionados entre mulheres dos meios urbano e rural do Rio Grande do Norte. MÉTODOS: estudo transversal, descritivo, envolvendo casuística de 261 mulheres climatéricas residentes em Natal e Mossoró (grupo urbano; n=130) e Uruaçu, em São Gonçalo do Amarante (grupo rural; n=131). A sintomatologia climatérica foi avaliada pelo Índice Menopausal de Blatt-Kupperman (IMBK) e Escala Climatérica de Greene (ECG). A análise estatística constou de comparações das medianas dos escores entre os grupos e regressão logística. Defi niram-se como “muito sintomáticas” as pacientes com escores ≥20, para ambos instrumentos (variável dependente). As variáveis independentes foram: idade, procedência, alfabetização, obesidade e prática de atividade física. RESULTADOS: o grupo urbano apresentou escores signifi cativamente superiores ao grupo rural, tanto para o IMBK (medianas de 26,0 e 17,0, respectivamente; p<0,0001), quanto para a ECG (medianas de 27,0 e 16,0, respectivamente; p<0,0001). Na amostra total, evidenciou-se que 56,3% (n=147) das mulheres foram classifi cadas como “muito sintomáticas”. Na comparação intergrupos, essa prevalência foi signifi cativamente mais elevada nas mulheres urbanas em relação às rurais (79,2 e 33,6%, respectivamente; p<0,05). Pela análise de regressão logística, evidenciou-se que a chance de pertencer ao grupo defi nido como “muito sintomáticas” foi maior para mulheres do meio urbano [odds ratio ajustado (OR)=7,1; 95% intervalo de confi ança a 95% (IC95%)=3,69-13,66] e alfabetizadas (OR=2,19; IC95%=1,16-4,13). A idade superior a 60 anos associou-se com menor chance de ocorrência de sintomas signifi cativos (OR=0,38; IC95%=0,17-0,87). CONCLUSÕES: a prevalência de sintomas climatéricos signifi cativos é menor em mulheres do meio rural, demonstrando que fatores socioculturais e ambientais estão fortemente relacionados ao surgimento dos sintomas climatéricos em nossa população.___________________________________ABSTRACT PURPOSE: to evaluate climacteric symptoms and related factors in women living in rural and urban areas of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil. METHODS: a cross-sectional study involving 261 women in the climacteric was performed. A total of 130 women from Natal and Mossoró (urban group) and 131 from Uruaçu, in São Gonçalo do Amarante (rural group), were studied. Climacteric symptoms were assessed by the Blatt-Kupperman Menopausal Index (BKMI) and Greene Climacteric Scale (GCE). Statistical analysis involved comparison of median between groups and logistic regression analysis. Patients were defi ned as “very symptomatic” when the climacteric score was ≥20 for both questionnaires (dependent variable). Independent variables were: age, living area, schooling, obesity and physical activity. RESULTS: the urban group had signifi cantly higher scores than those of the rural group, both for BKMI (median of 26.0 and 17.0, respectively; p<0.0001) and for GCE (median of 27.0 and 16.0, respectively; p<0.0001). For the entire sample, a total of 56.3% (n=147) of the women were classifi ed as “very symptomatic”. This prevalence was signifi cantly higher in urban than in rural women (79.2 and 33.6%, respectively; p<0.05). Logistic regression analysis showed that the likelihood of belonging to the group defi ned as “very symptomatic” was greater for urban women [adjusted odds ratio (OR)=7.1; confi dence interval at 95% (95%CI)=3.69-13.66] who were literate (OR=2.19; 95%CI=1.16- 4.13). Individuals over the age of 60 years had less chance of having signifi cant symptoms (OR=0.38; 95%CI=0.17-0.87). CONCLUSIONS: the prevalence of signifi cant climacteric symptoms is less in women from a rural environment, showing that sociocultural and environmental factors are strongly related to the appearance of climacteric symptoms in our population

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FERNANDES, Marcos Henrique; ROCHA, Vera Maria da; RONCALLI, Angelo Giuseppe. Fatores Associados à Prevalência de Sintomas Osteomusculares em Professores. Revista de salud pública, v. 11, n. 2, p. 256-267, 2009.

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The present report is the result of an applied research in the educational entities of the third sector, aiming to demonstrate whether the financial influences the perception of users on the image of those entities. For both used the prospect of integrative marketing relationship adapting to and developing a set of indicators which bore the measurement of images from the model of Machado et al (2005) and Kotler and Fox (1994). The sample included a total of 187 parents and financial responsibility in 03 (three) institutions of education in Natal / RN. These data were processed by multivariate statistical analysis, factor analysis, linear regression, analysis of cluster and discriminant analysis. The factor analysis also identified 6 images perceived by users of services. Next were the relationships of cause and effect between the financial and images formed. In discriminant analysis, was identified two distinct groups of parents and guardians with financial perceptions similar and well defined. The result of the work shows that the differential level of financial participation of parents and guardians not influence the formation of the images formed from educational institutions of the third sector

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Neste estudo, foram examinadas as relações existentes entre a motivação e a satisfação do trabalhador no espaço laboral. O estudo empírico foi conduzido em uma única etapa, por meio da qual buscou-se conhecer as dimensões latentes identificadas e, a partir das dimensões validadas, buscou-se estabelecer relações com características motivacionais, como antecedentes, e satisfação pelo trabalho realizado, como conseqüência do atendimento das necessidades manifestadas pelo trabalhador. Foram entrevistados 38 (trinta e oito) funcionários da empresa Água Mineral Cristalina, incluindo-se os que ocupam cargos de chefia. Como instrumento de coleta de dados, foi utilizada parte do complexo da Auditoria do Sistema Humano ASH, criado por Quijano (1999), que se trata de um modelo de pesquisa na área de Psicologia Social, incluindo a Administração de Recursos Humanos, que analisa os processos psicológicos e psicossociais nas organizações. Para esta pesquisa, foram utilizados dois formulários sugeridos pelo autor citado, (anexos 01 e 02). O primeiro denomina-se condições para a motivação , com 15 (quinze) questões do tipo likert. O segundo, "trabalho bem feito e satisfação de necessidades", tem 22 (vinte e duas) questões, também do tipo likert. O instrumento foi respondido por colaboradores, independente da posição hierárquica, em aproximadamente 10 (dez) a 15 (quinze) minutos. A aplicação foi realizada diretamente pelo pesquisador nas unidades de produção e de administração da empresa. Por meio de modelagem de equações estruturais, foi estabelecido um modelo de relações causais entre as dimensões latentes relacionadas à motivação e o desempenho do empregado quando tem satisfeitas as suas necessidades. Quanto ao tratamento dos dados, este ocorreu de forma quantitativa. Quanto à análise, aconteceu após os dados terem sido tratados. Nesta pesquisa, os dados foram analisados por meio de estatísticas descritivas, atualizando-se os recursos de softwares específicos como Statistic ou SPSS Statistic Package for Social Sciences. Usou-se a técnica de Análise de Regressão, na qual foi utilizado o método STEPWISE que inclui na equação de explicação de uma variável dependente somente aquelas que auxiliam ou incrementam sua explicação. Como variáveis dependentes, foram utilizadas as variáveis do formulário "trabalho bem feito e satisfação de necessidades" e como variável independe as variáveis do questionário "condições para motivação". Sob o ponto de vista prático, este estudo mostrou que um determinado conjunto de características motivacionais influi positivamente na satisfação do trabalhador, que poderá realizar um trabalho bem feito; do lado teórico, a pesquisa verificou explicitamente a hipótese de que os aspectos motivacionais contribuem para que o empregado, sentindo-se satisfeito, desempenhe melhor as atribuições que lhe são conferidas

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The kinanthropometric characteristics are used by the sports science as selection criteria and detection of talents. Hence, this study aimed at comparing the anthropometrical profile, the body composition, the somatotype and the vertical jumps of the beach volleyball players. This study consists of 79 male beach volleyball players, being forty nine (n=49) Brazilian participants of the National Circuit and thirty (n=30) of 15 countries participating in the XV Pan American Games. In order to analyze the vertical jumps of the Brazilian the participants were allocated into two groups (G1 and G2) in agreement with the national ranking of their teams. The vertical jump protocol developed by Smith and collaborators was used to evaluate the vertical jumps of spike and block. The Heath-Carter anthropometrical technique (1990) was used for calculating the somatotype. The Student s t test with the Bonferroni adjustment was used to calculate the differences among the investigated variables. The multiple regression analysis was used to identify the contributions of the anthropometrical variables in the performance of the vertical jumps and the multivariance analysis was used to calculate the differences among the components of the somatotype. The Brazilian athletes of G1 were better than G2 in the spike jump (p <0.01), block jump (p <0.01) and in the block difference (p <0.01). The prediction model of the spike jump of G2 included the body mass and standing spike reach (adjusted R2 = 0.77), the body mass and the standing block reach were also included in the model of the block jump (adjusted R2 = 0.73). The regression model of G1 was not statistically significant. As for the somatotype, statistically significant differences were found between the Brazilians and the Pan Americans (Wilks' lambda = 0.498; p <0.05). The Brazilian somatotype was classified as balanced mesomorph (2.7-4.3-3.0) and the Pan American somatotype as endomorphic mesomorph (3.5-4.6-2.4). As to the specific position of the block game (2.8-4.3-2.9) and the defense game (2.6-4.4-3.0), the Brazilian somatotype was classified as balanced mesomorph and the Pan American somatotype, the block (3.7-4.4-2.4) and the defense (3.4-4.9-2.3), was classified as endomorphic mesomorph. In conclusion, the vertical jump height (spike and block) influences the male Brazilian beach volleyball players performance. The physical type of the Brazilian blockers and defenders was similar with relationship to the somatotype. The Brazilian and Pan American beach volleyball players differ in terms of kinanthropometric characteristics. This work had a multidisciplinary feature with the participation of several departments and laboratories, like the Physiotherapy Department, the Nutrition Department, the Physical Education Laboratory, thus corroborating the multidisciplinary research feature

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The aging process if characterizes for a complex events network, from multidimensional nature, that encloses biological, social, psychic and functional aspects. The alteration of one or more aspects can speed up the aging process, anticipating limitations and until the death in the aged. For an adjusted confrontation of this question is necessary an interdisciplinary vision, in which the some areas of the knowledge can interact and with this to intervenes of the best possible form. Then, information derived from studies of aspects related to incidence, morbidity-mortality and transition patterns, involved in the health-illness process can more accurately identify risk groups thereby establishing links between social factors, illness, incapacity and death. Thus, this study aimed to identify, by a multidimensional vision, the risk factors of mortality in a coorth of elderly in a city in the interior of the state of Rio Grande do Norte (RN), Brazil. A prospective study carried out in Santa Cruz RN, where 310 elderly were randomly selected to form a baseline. The follow-up was 53 months. The predictive variables were divided into sociodemographic, physical health, neuropsychiatric and functional capacity. The statistical analysis carried out by bivariate analysis, survival analysis, followed by binary logistic regression and Cox regression, in the multivariate analysis, considering significant levels p < 0.05 and confidence interval (CI) of 95%. A total of 60 (19.3%) elderly died during the follow-up, where cardiovascular disease was the main cause. The survival was approximately 24.8 months. The study of general survival showed, at 12, 24, 36, and 48 months of observation, a survival rate of 97%, 54%, 31%, and 5% respectively, with a statistical difference in survival only observed for the variables of cognitive function and Basic Activities of Daily Living. In the logistic regression analysis, the risk factors identified were cognitive deficits (OR = 8.74), poor perception of health (OR = 3.89) and dependence for Basic Activities of Daily Living (OR = 3.96). In the Cox analysis, as well as dependence for Basic Activities of Daily Living (HR = 3.17), cognitive deficit (HR = 4.30) and stroke (CVA) (HR = 3.49) continued as independent risk factors for death. The risk factors found in the study can be interpreted as the primary predictors for death among elderly members of the community. Therefore, improvements in health conditions, with actions towards sustaining an autonomous life with special attention for elderly with cognitive impairment, could mean additional healthy quality of life, resulting in the reduction of premature mortality in this population

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A identificação de fatores que interferem na dor pós-operatória é útil para minimizar o sofrimento desnecessário e favorecer a uma intervenção analgésica adequada, evitando generalizações nas condutas terapêuticas. O propósito dessa investigação foi identificar os fatores preditivos da dor em pacientes submetidos à cirurgia cardíaca e a relação existente entre dor, analgesia e personalidade. Trata-se de um estudo prospectivo e analítico, aprovado pelo comitê de ética da UFRN (175/06), o qual proporcionou uma abordagem multidisciplinar ao envolver áreas distintas como: fisioterapia, psicologia, médica e enfermagem (interdisciplinaridade) na elucidação do objeto de estudo relacionado a fatores preditivos da dor. Para caracterização geral dos pacientes foi utilizada uma ficha de avaliação fisioterapêutica; a dor pós-operatória foi avaliada pela escala numérica de dor e questionário para dor McGill e o Inventário Millon de Estilos de Personalidade (MIPS) foi utilizado para identificar e avaliar as manifestações das características comportamentais e de personalidade. Foram acompanhados, do 1º ao 5º dia de pós-operatório (DPO), 160 pacientes submetidos à cirurgia cardíaca, 57,5% do sexo masculino, com idade média de 56,8±14,4 anos, sendo incluídos no estudo aqueles que se queixaram de dor no pós-operatório em pelo menos um dos dias de avaliação e assinaram termo de concentimento livre e esclarecido (TCLE). Os dados foram submetidos ao teste Qui-quadrado, regressão logística multivariada, teste de correlação de Spearman, teste t e ANOVA. Ao serem submetidos à análise de regressão foram encontrados seis fatores preditivos da dor: tempo cirúrgico > 3 horas, dreno mediastinal e lateral, tosse, vômitos, tempo de dreno > 24 horas e sexo feminino. Estes fatores apresentaram uma correlação positiva e significava com a intensidade dolorosa referida pelos pacientes na escala numérica de dor e os pacientes que apresentaram mais fatores preditivos da dor referiram mais dor. 23 Já em relação ao McGill não se obteve diferença significativa entre os pacientes com mais e menos fatores preditivos. Observou-se que foram administrados diferentes tipos de analgésicos, isolados ou associados, sendo estes: paracetamol, paracetamol associado à codeína, dipirona, tramadol, toradol e tilatil. A percepção dolorosa apresentou magnitudes variando de leve a moderada do 1º ao 5º DPO e ao ser relacionada com as características de personalidade, nos pacientes com menos dor, observou-se os fatores: preservação, individualismo, introversão e os com mais dor foram: proteção, extroversão, retraimento, discrepância, afetividade, acomodação, comunicabilidade e firmeza. Evidenciou-se que o comportamento doloroso pós-cirurgia cardíaca é multifatorial e que a determinação da existência de fatores preditivos da dor permite ao profissional da área de saúde fazer o uso adequado dos analgésicos, haja vista que o alívio da dor é responsabilidade de todos os profissionais da saúde. Os aspectos psicológicos enquanto características de personalidade podem influenciar padrões de comportamento como os observados.