Avaliação do crescimento de ocupação da bacia do rio Pitimbu com subsídios para estudos de possíveis impactos sobre os recursos hidricos

The Pitimbu River Watershed (PRW), belonging to Potiguar capital metropolitan area, State of Rio Grande do Norte, contributes, among other purposes, to human using and animal watering. This watershed is extremely important because, besides filling up with freshwater approximately 30% of the south part of Natal (South, East and West Zones), contributes to the river shore ecosystem equilibrium. Face to the current conjuncture, this study aims to evaluate the urban development dynamics in the PRW, applying Cellular Automata as a modeling instrument, and to simulate future urban scenarios, between 2014 and 2033, using the simulation program SLEUTH. In the calibration phase, urban spots for 1 984, 1992, 2004 and 2013 years were used, with resolution from 100 meters. After the simulation, it was found a predominance of organic growth, expanding the BHRP from existing urban centers. The spontaneous growth occurred through the fullest extent of the watershed, however the probability of effective growth should not exceed 21%. It was observed that, there was a 68% increase for the period between 2014 and 2033, corresponding to an expansion area of 1,778 ha. For 2033, the source of Pitimbu River area and the Jiqui Lake surroundings will increase more than 78%. Finally, it was seen an exogenous urban growth tendency in the watershed (outside-in). As a result of this growth, hydraulics resources will become scarcer

Avaliação da disponibilidade hídrica e da demanda hídrica no trecho do Rio Piranhas-Açu entre os açudes Coremas-mãe D´água e Armando Ribeiro Gonçalves

Piranhas-Açu basin is a Federal watershed with a drainage area of 43.681,5 km2, sited at Brazilian northeast semi arid, with 60% of your area in Paraiba State and 40% in Rio Grande do Norte State. The main river, Piranhas-Açu, has strategic importance for development of these states, because it s an essential source for many socio-economics activities developed along watercourse. The river s reach between Coremas-Mãe D`água Dam and Armando Ribeiro Gonçalves Dam has many irrigation projects, and supply many riverside cities. All this activities practiced in this river s reach consumes high water volumes. Due the importance of this stream and the necessity of an adequate management, this work aims for an impartial and detailed evaluation of real water supply conditions in this river s reach, by the application of hydrological modeling, including the arrangement of main dams in tributaries, and storage reservoir water balance. The rainfall-discharge model s applied in each sub-basins it was selected the model MODHISA- Hydrological Model of Semi Arid, that is a concentrated model with easy application. The simulation produced 50 years of inflows into the reservoirs, for which, were constructed the guaranties curves; and produced 50 years of synthetic discharge data in relevant points on the river and on its affluents; so it was constructed the permanence curves. Confronting the available discharge with the current and futures volumes of raw water captured in this river s reach, it was verified that de demands have high guaranties. This work concluded that the MODHISA Model is suitable to reproduce the hydrologic characteristics of Piranhas-Açu sub-basins, and showing good results

A modelagem matemática como alternativa de ensino e aprendizagem da geometria na educação de jovens e adultos

This is work itself insert in the mathematics education field of the youth and adult education to aim to practitioners of the educational action into the mathematics area performing to with this is teaching kind, adopting to as parameter the Mathematics Molding approach. The motive of the research is to draw up a application proposal of the molding mathematics as teaching and learning geometry alternative in the youth and adult education. The research it develops in three class of the third level (series 5th and 6th) of he youth and adults education in the one school municipal from the Natal outskirts. Its have qualitative nature with participating observation approach, once performing to directly in to research environment as a mathematics teacher of those same classes. We are used questionnaires, lesson notes and analyses of the officials documents as an basis of claim instruments. The results indicates that activity used the mathematic moldings were appreciated the savoir-faire of the student in to knowledge construction process, when search develop to significant learning methods, helping to student build has mathematics connections with other knowledge areas and inside mathematics himself, so much that enlarges your understanding and assist has in your participation in the other socials place, over there propitiate to change in student and teacher posture with relation to mathematic classroom dynamics

Dificuldades de aprendizagem em estequiometria: uma proposta de ensino apoiada na modelagem

In order to learn/teach chemistry some themes are relevant, like the stoichiometry, which consists in the study of the weight ratios in the combination of elements and compounds between themselves. This is an underlying subject in the understanding/representation/forethought of chemical reactions. Considering these aspects, our study presents a modeling-based proposal to develop the content of stoichiometry with prospective chemistry teachers. With this aim, we have made a review of literature, which we considered when tried to identify the learning difficulties using both quizzes and pedagogical tests, and then, from those difficulties we could propose a teaching unit for this concept and, consequently the evaluation of our proposal. The participants were chemistry undergraduates at the Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte (UFRN) from assorted levels. As a methodological framework, we rely on the discursive textual analysis to characterize the speech of participants. As main results we observed ideas of appearance or disappearance of matter during chemical transformations, disregard of stoichiometric proportions when using drawings to represent the microscopic level of a reaction and confusion between the magnitude amount of matter and other magnitudes such as mass and volume. The final product is a sequence of instruction, based on the modeling previous research literature , with the goal of improving students ability to articulate the macroscopic and submicroscopic levels of representation of the matter

Propriedades críticas de sistemas fora do equilíbrio via simulação Monte Carlo

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico

Modelos de sobrevivência com fração de cura e erro de medida nas covariáveis

In this work, we study the survival cure rate model proposed by Yakovlev et al. (1993), based on a competing risks structure concurring to cause the event of interest, and the approach proposed by Chen et al. (1999), where covariates are introduced to model the risk amount. We focus the measurement error covariates topics, considering the use of corrected score method in order to obtain consistent estimators. A simulation study is done to evaluate the behavior of the estimators obtained by this method for finite samples. The simulation aims to identify not only the impact on the regression coefficients of the covariates measured with error (Mizoi et al. 2007) but also on the coefficients of covariates measured without error. We also verify the adequacy of the piecewise exponential distribution to the cure rate model with measurement error. At the end, model applications involving real data are made

Caracterização estatística de processos sísmicos via Distribuição Generalizada de Pareto. Estudo de caso: João Câmara-RN

The work is to make a brief discussion of methods to estimate the parameters of the Generalized Pareto distribution (GPD). Being addressed the following techniques: Moments (moments), Maximum Likelihood (MLE), Biased Probability Weighted Moments (PWMB), Unbiased Probability Weighted Moments (PWMU), Mean Power Density Divergence (MDPD), Median (MED), Pickands (PICKANDS), Maximum Penalized Likelihood (MPLE), Maximum Goodness-of-fit (MGF) and the Maximum Entropy (POME) technique, the focus of this manuscript. By way of illustration adjustments were made for the Generalized Pareto distribution, for a sequence of earthquakes intraplacas which occurred in the city of João Câmara in the northeastern region of Brazil, which was monitored continuously for two years (1987 and 1988). It was found that the MLE and POME were the most efficient methods, giving them basically mean squared errors. Based on the threshold of 1.5 degrees was estimated the seismic risk for the city, and estimated the level of return to earthquakes of intensity 1.5°, 2.0°, 2.5°, 3.0° and the most intense earthquake never registered in the city, which occurred in November 1986 with magnitude of about 5.2º

Estimação em modelos de tempo de falha acelerado para dados de sobrevivência correlacionados

We presented in this work two methods of estimation for accelerated failure time models with random e_ects to process grouped survival data. The _rst method, which is implemented in software SAS, by NLMIXED procedure, uses an adapted Gauss-Hermite quadrature to determine marginalized likelihood. The second method, implemented in the free software R, is based on the method of penalized likelihood to estimate the parameters of the model. In the _rst case we describe the main theoretical aspects and, in the second, we briey presented the approach adopted with a simulation study to investigate the performance of the method. We realized implement the models using actual data on the time of operation of oil wells from the Potiguar Basin (RN / CE).

Caracterização e modelagem dos sistemas de produção de caprinos leiteiros

The objectives of this research were characterizing the dairy goat production systems and model it using linear program. On the first step of this research, the model was developed using data from farms that was affiliated in the ACCOMIG/Caprileite, used a similar dairy goat production systems and have a partnership program with Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais . The data of research were from a structured questionnaire applied with farmers and monitoring of production systems during a guided visit on their farms. The results permitted identify that all farms were classified as a small and have a intensive production system. The average herd size had 63.75 dairy goats on lactation; it permits a production of 153, 38 kg of goat milk per day. It was observed that existing more than one channel of commercialization for the goat milk and their derivative products. The data obtained, on the first step of this research, was used to develop a linear program model. It was evaluated in two goat production systems, called P1 and P2. The results showed that the P1 system, with an annual birth and lactation during approximately 300 days was the best alternative for business. These results were compared with a mixed (beef and dairy) goat system in the semiarid region, which indicated merged with both systems. Therefore, to achieve profits and sustainability of the system, in all simulations it was necessary a minimum limit of funding of U.S. $ 10,000.00; this value permit earning of U.S. $ 792.00 per month and pay the investment within 5 years

Remoção, por flotação, de óleo em águas produzidas na indústria de petróleo: eficiência e modelagem do processo

The separation oil-water by the use of flotation process is characterized by the involvement between the liquid and gas phases. For the comprehension of this process, it s necessary to analyze the physical and chemical properties command float flotation, defining the nature and forces over the particles. The interface chemistry has an important role on the flotation technology once, by dispersion of a gas phase into a liquid mixture the particles desired get stuck into air bubbles, being conduced to a superficial layer where can be physically separated. Through the study of interface interaction involved in the system used for this work, was possible to apply the results in an mathematical model able to determine the probability of flotation using a different view related to petroleum emulsions such as oil-water. The terms of probability of flotation correlate the collision and addition between particles of oil and air bubbles, that as more collisions, better is the probability of flotation. The additional probability was analyzed by the isotherm of absorption from Freundlich, represents itself the add probability between air bubbles and oil particles. The mathematical scheme for float flotation involved the injected air flow, the size of bubbles and quantity for second, the volume of float cell, viscosity of environment and concentration of demulsifier. The results shown that the float agent developed by castor oil, pos pH variation, salt quantity, temperature, concentration and water-oil quantity, presented efficient extraction of oil from water, up to 95%, using concentrations around 11 ppm of demulsifier. The best results were compared to other commercial products, codified by ―W‖ and ―Z‖, being observed an equivalent demulsifier power between Agflot and commercial product ―W‖ and superior to commercial product ―Z‖

Obtenção de sistemas microemulsionados e estudo de simulação por dinâmica molecular de sistemas micelares objetivando a veiculação de produtos naturais bioativos

Among the new drugs launched into the market since 1980, up to 30% of them belong to the class of natural products or they have semisynthetic origin. Between 40-70% of the new chemical entities (or lead compounds) possess poor water solubility, which may impair their commercial use. An alternative for administration of poorly water-soluble drugs is their vehiculation into drug delivery systems like micelles, microemulsions, nanoparticles, liposomes, and cyclodextrin systems. In this work, microemulsion-based drug delivery systems were obtained using pharmaceutically acceptable components: a mixture Tween 80 and Span 20 in ratio 3:1 as surfactant, isopropyl mirystate or oleic acid as oil, bidistilled water, and ethanol, in some formulations, as cosurfactants. Self-Microemulsifying Drug Delivery Systems (SMEDDS) were also obtained using propylene glycol or sorbitol as cosurfactant. All formulations were characterized for rheological behavior, droplet size and electrical conductivity. The bioactive natural product trans-dehydrocrotonin, as well some extracts and fractions from Croton cajucara Benth (Euphorbiaceae), Anacardium occidentale L. (Anacardiaceae) e Phyllanthus amarus Schum. & Thonn. (Euphorbiaceae) specimens, were satisfactorily solubilized into microemulsions formulations. Meanwhile, two other natural products from Croton cajucara, trans-crotonin and acetyl aleuritolic acid, showed poor solubility in these formulations. The evaluation of the antioxidant capacity, by DPPH method, of plant extracts loaded into microemulsions evidenced the antioxidant activity of Phyllanthus amarus and Anacardium occidentale extracts. For Phyllanthus amarus extract, the use of microemulsions duplicated its antioxidant efficiency. A hydroalcoholic extract from Croton cajucara incorporated into a SMEDDS formulation showed bacteriostatic activity against colonies of Bacillus cereus and Escherichia coli bacteria. Additionally, Molecular Dynamics simulations were performed using micellar systems, for drug delivery systems, containing sugar-based surfactants, N-dodecylamino-1-deoxylactitol and N-dodecyl-D-lactosylamine. The computational simulations indicated that micellization process for N-dodecylamino-1- deoxylactitol is more favorable than N-dodecyl-D-lactosylamine system.

Caracterização química e toxicológica da água produzida descartada em plataformas de óleo e gás na costa brasileira e seu comportamento dispersivo no mar

The production of oil and gas is usually accompanied by the production of water, also known as produced water. Studies were conducted in platforms that discharge produced water in the Atlantic Ocean due to oil and gas production by Petrobras from 1996 to 2006 in the following basins: Santos (Brazilian south region), Campos (Brazilian southeast region) and Ceara (Brazilian northeast region). This study encompasses chemical composition, toxicological effects, discharge volumes, and produced water behavior after releasing in the ocean, including dispersion plumes modeling and monitoring data of the marine environment. The concentration medians for a sampling of 50 samples were: ammonia (70 mg L-1), boron (1.3 mg L1), iron (7.4 mg L-1), BTEX (4.6 mg L-1), PAH (0.53 mg L-1), TPH (28 mg L-1); phenols (1.3 mg L-1) and radioisotopes (0.15 Bq L-1 for 226Ra and 0.09 Bq L-1 for 228Ra). The concentrations of the organic and inorganic parameters observed for the Brazilian platforms were similar to the international reference data for the produced water in the North Sea and in other regions of the world. It was found significant differences in concentrations of the following parameters: BTEX (p<0.0001), phenols (p=0.0212), boron (p<0.0001), iron (p<0.0001) and toxicological response in sea urchin Lytechinus variegatus (p<0.0001) when considering two distinguished groups, platforms from southeast and northeast Region (PCR-1). Significant differences were not observed among the other parameters. In platforms with large gas production, the monoaromatic concentrations (BTEX from 15.8 to 21.6 mg L-1) and phenols (from 2 to 83 mg L-1) were higher than in oil plataforms (median concentrations of BTEX were 4.6 mg L-1 for n=53, and of phenols were 1.3 mg L-1 for n=46). It was also conducted a study about the influence of dispersion plumes of produced water in the vicinity of six platforms of oil and gas production (P-26, PPG-1, PCR-1, P-32, SS-06), and in a hypothetical critical scenario using the chemical characteristics of each effluent. Through this study, using CORMIX and CHEMMAP models for dispersion plumes simulation of the produced water discharges, it was possible to obtain the dilution dimension in the ocean after those discharges. The dispersion plumes of the produced water modelling in field vicinity showed dilutions of 700 to 900 times for the first 30-40 meters from the platform PCR-1 discharge point; 100 times for the platform P-32, with 30 meters of distance; 150 times for the platform P-26, with 40 meters of distance; 100 times for the platform PPG-1, with 130 meters of distance; 280 to 350 times for the platform SS-06, with 130 meters of distance, 100 times for the hypothetical critical scenario, with the 130 meters of distance. The dilutions continue in the far field, and with the results of the simulations, it was possible to verify that all the parameters presented concentrations bellow the maximum values established by Brazilian legislation for seawater (CONAMA 357/05 - Class 1), before the 500 meters distance of the discharge point. These results were in agreement with the field measurements. Although, in general results for the Brazilian produced water presented toxicological effects for marine organisms, it was verified that dilutions of 100 times were sufficient for not causing toxicological responses. Field monitoring data of the seawater around the Pargo, Pampo and PCR-1 platforms did not demonstrate toxicity in the seawater close to these platforms. The results of environmental monitoring in seawater and sediments proved that alterations were not detected for environmental quality in areas under direct influence of the oil production activities in the Campos and Ceara Basin, as according to results obtained in the dispersion plume modelling for the produced water discharge

Caracterização química e toxicológica da água produzida descartada em plataformas de óleo e gás na costa brasileira e seu comportamento dispersivo no mar

The production of oil and gas is usually accompanied by the production of water, also known as produced water. Studies were conducted in platforms that discharge produced water in the Atlantic Ocean due to oil and gas production by Petrobras from 1996 to 2006 in the following basins: Santos (Brazilian south region), Campos (Brazilian southeast region) and Ceara (Brazilian northeast region). This study encompasses chemical composition, toxicological effects, discharge volumes, and produced water behavior after releasing in the ocean, including dispersion plumes modeling and monitoring data of the marine environment. The concentration medians for a sampling of 50 samples were: ammonia (70 mg L-1), boron (1.3 mg L1), iron (7.4 mg L-1), BTEX (4.6 mg L-1), PAH (0.53 mg L-1), TPH (28 mg L-1); phenols (1.3 mg L-1) and radioisotopes (0.15 Bq L-1 for 226Ra and 0.09 Bq L-1 for 228Ra). The concentrations of the organic and inorganic parameters observed for the Brazilian platforms were similar to the international reference data for the produced water in the North Sea and in other regions of the world. It was found significant differences in concentrations of the following parameters: BTEX (p<0.0001), phenols (p=0.0212), boron (p<0.0001), iron (p<0.0001) and toxicological response in sea urchin Lytechinus variegatus (p<0.0001) when considering two distinguished groups, platforms from southeast and northeast Region (PCR-1). Significant differences were not observed among the other parameters. In platforms with large gas production, the monoaromatic concentrations (BTEX from 15.8 to 21.6 mg L-1) and phenols (from 2 to 83 mg L-1) were higher than in oil plataforms (median concentrations of BTEX were 4.6 mg L-1 for n=53, and of phenols were 1.3 mg L-1 for n=46). It was also conducted a study about the influence of dispersion plumes of produced water in the vicinity of six platforms of oil and gas production (P-26, PPG-1, PCR-1, P-32, SS-06), and in a hypothetical critical scenario using the chemical characteristics of each effluent. Through this study, using CORMIX and CHEMMAP models for dispersion plumes simulation of the produced water discharges, it was possible to obtain the dilution dimension in the ocean after those discharges. The dispersion plumes of the produced water modelling in field vicinity showed dilutions of 700 to 900 times for the first 30-40 meters from the platform PCR-1 discharge point; 100 times for the platform P-32, with 30 meters of distance; 150 times for the platform P-26, with 40 meters of distance; 100 times for the platform PPG-1, with 130 meters of distance; 280 to 350 times for the platform SS-06, with 130 meters of distance, 100 times for the hypothetical critical scenario, with the 130 meters of distance. The dilutions continue in the far field, and with the results of the simulations, it was possible to verify that all the parameters presented concentrations bellow the maximum values established by Brazilian legislation for seawater (CONAMA 357/05 - Class 1), before the 500 meters distance of the discharge point. These results were in agreement with the field measurements. Although, in general results for the Brazilian produced water presented toxicological effects for marine organisms, it was verified that dilutions of 100 times were sufficient for not causing toxicological responses. Field monitoring data of the seawater around the Pargo, Pampo and PCR-1 platforms did not demonstrate toxicity in the seawater close to these platforms. The results of environmental monitoring in seawater and sediments proved that alterations were not detected for environmental quality in areas under direct influence of the oil production activities in the Campos and Ceara Basin, as according to results obtained in the dispersion plume modelling for the produced water discharge

Uma linguagem de modelagem da interação para auxiliar a comunicação designer-usuário

The development of interactive systems involves several professionals and the integration between them normally uses common artifacts, such as models, that drive the development process. In the model-driven development approach, the interaction model is an artifact that includes the most of the aspects related to what and how the user can do while he/she interacting with the system. Furthermore, the interactive model may be used to identify usability problems at design time. Therefore, the central problematic addressed by this thesis is twofold. In the first place, the interaction modeling, in a perspective that helps the designer to explicit to developer, who will implement the interface, the aspcts related to the interaction process. In the second place, the anticipated identification of usability problems, that aims to reduce the application final costs. To achieve these goals, this work presents (i) the ALaDIM language, that aims to help the designer on the conception, representation and validation of his interactive message models; (ii) the ALaDIM editor, which was built using the EMF (Eclipse Modeling Framework) and its standardized technologies by OMG (Object Management Group); and (iii) the ALaDIM inspection method, which allows the anticipated identification of usability problems using ALaDIM models. ALaDIM language and editor were respectively specified and implemented using the OMG standards and they can be used in MDA (Model Driven Architecture) activities. Beyond that, we evaluated both ALaDIM language and editor using a CDN (Cognitive Dimensions of Notations) analysis. Finally, this work reports an experiment that validated the ALaDIM inspection method

Visual IMML: um perfil UML para a modelagem de interfaces de usuário

The software development processes proposed by the most recent approaches in Software Engineering make use old models. UML was proposed as the standard language for modeling. The user interface is an important part of the software and has a fundamental importance to improve its usability. Unfortunately the standard UML does not offer appropriate resources to model user interfaces. Some proposals have already been proposed to solve this problem: some authors have been using models in the development of interfaces (Model Based Development) and some proposals to extend UML have been elaborated. But none of them considers the theoretical perspective presented by the semiotic engineering, that considers that, through the system, the designer should be able to communicate to the user what he can do, and how to use the system itself. This work presents Visual IMML, an UML Profile that emphasizes the aspects of the semiotic engineering. This Profile is based on IMML, that is a declarative textual language. The Visual IMML is a proposal that aims to improve the specification process by using a visual modeling (using diagrams) language. It proposes a new set of modeling elements (stereotypes) specifically designed to the specification and documentation of user interfaces, considering the aspects of communication, interaction and functionality in an integrated manner