Modelagem estatística e atribuições dos eventos de precipitação extrema na Amazônia brasileira

Intense precipitation events (IPE) have been causing great social and economic losses in the affected regions. In the Amazon, these events can have serious impacts, primarily for populations living on the margins of its countless rivers, because when water levels are elevated, floods and/or inundations are generally observed. Thus, the main objective of this research is to study IPE, through Extreme Value Theory (EVT), to estimate return periods of these events and identify regions of the Brazilian Amazon where IPE have the largest values. The study was performed using daily rainfall data of the hydrometeorological network managed by the National Water Agency (Agência Nacional de Água) and the Meteorological Data Bank for Education and Research (Banco de Dados Meteorológicos para Ensino e Pesquisa) of the National Institute of Meteorology (Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia), covering the period 1983-2012. First, homogeneous rainfall regions were determined through cluster analysis, using the hierarchical agglomerative Ward method. Then synthetic series to represent the homogeneous regions were created. Next EVT, was applied in these series, through Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) and the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). The goodness of fit of these distributions were evaluated by the application of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, which compares the cumulated empirical distributions with the theoretical ones. Finally, the composition technique was used to characterize the prevailing atmospheric patterns for the occurrence of IPE. The results suggest that the Brazilian Amazon has six pluvial homogeneous regions. It is expected more severe IPE to occur in the south and in the Amazon coast. More intense rainfall events are expected during the rainy or transitions seasons of each sub-region, with total daily precipitation of 146.1, 143.1 and 109.4 mm (GEV) and 201.6, 209.5 and 152.4 mm (GPD), at least once year, in the south, in the coast and in the northwest of the Brazilian Amazon, respectively. For the south Amazonia, the composition analysis revealed that IPE are associated with the configuration and formation of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone. Along the coast, intense precipitation events are associated with mesoscale systems, such Squall Lines. In Northwest Amazonia IPE are apparently associated with the Intertropical Convergence Zone and/or local convection.

Síndrome de Guillain-Barré: epidemiologia, prognóstico e fatores de risco

Introduction. Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) is an immune-mediated polyneuropathy and the principal cause of acute neuromuscular paralysis. The most prominent GBS subtypes are: acute inflammatory demyelinating polyneuropathy (AIDP), acute motor axonal neuropathy (AMAN), acute motor-sensory axonal neuropathy (AMSAN) and Fisher syndrome (FS). Differences in geographical distribution of variants have been reported. In Brazil, there are few studies describing the characteristics of GBS, but none on the frequency of GBS variants and their clinical manifestations. Infection-induced aberrant immune response resulting from molecular mimicry and formation of cross-reacting antibodies, contribute to complement activation. Functional biallelic polymorphism in immunoglobulin receptors that influence the affinity of IgG subclasses and the type of immune response have been described, suggesting genetic susceptibility to developing disease. It remains unclear whether individuals carrying different FCGR alleles have differential risk for GBS and⁄or disease severity. The goals of this study were: (1) To characterize GBS and describe the clinical findings in a cohort of patients with GBS from the state of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil; (2) to determine whether polymorphism in FCGR were associated with development of GBS, and (3) to tease out whether the global gene expression studies could be a tool to identify pathways and transcriptional networks which could be regulated and decrease the time of disease. Methods. Clinical and laboratory data for 149 cases of GBS diagnosed from 1994 to 2013 were analyzed. Genomic DNA and total RNA were extracted from whole blood. Antigangliosides antibodies were determined in the sera. In addition, we also assessed whether FCGR polymorphism are present in GBS (n=141) and blood donors (n=364), and global gene expressions were determined for 12 participants with GBS. Blood samples were collected at the diagnosis and post-recovery. Results. AIDP was the most frequent variant (81.8%) of GBS, followed by AMAN (14.7%) and AMSAN (3.3%). The incidence of GBS was 0.3 ⁄ 100,000 people for the state of Rio Grande do Norte and cases occurred at a younger age. GBS was preceded by infections, with the axonal variant associated with episodes of diarrhea (P = 0.025). Proximal weakness was more frequent in AIDP, and distal weakness predominant in the axonal variant. Compared to 42.4% of cases with AIDP (P<0.0001), 84.6% of cases with the axonal variant had nadir in <10 days. Individuals with the axonal variant took longer to recover deambulation (P<0.0001). The mortality of GBS was 5.3%. A worse outcome was related to an axonal variant (OR17.063; P=0.03) and time required to improve one point in the Hughes functional scale (OR 1.028; P=0.03). The FCGR genotypes and allele frequencies did not differ significantly between the patients with GBS and the controls (FCGR2A p=0.367 and FCGR3A p=0.2430). Global gene expression using RNAseq showed variation in transcript coding for protein isoforms during acute phase of disease. Conclusions. The annual incidence of GBS was 0.3 per 100,00 and there was no seasonal pattern. A predominance of the AIDP variant was seen, and the incidence of the disease decreased with age. The distribution of weakness is a function of the clinical variants, and individuals with the axonal variant had a poorer prognosis. Early diagnosis and variant identification leads to proper intervention decreasing in long-term morbidity. FCGR polymorphisms do not seem to influence susceptibility to GBS in this population. This study found deregulated genes and signs of transcriptional network alterations during the acute and recovery phases in GBS. Identification of pathways altered during disease might be target for immune regulation and with potential to ameliorate symptoms.

Literatura: o espaço da criação e transformação identitária na sala de aula

Este trabajo pretende señalar maneras de cambiar el concepto de que los estudiantes de una clase de noveno grado de la escuela primaria en la Escuela de Estado Dr. José Gonçalves de Medeiros, en la ciudad de Acari-RN, tienen de sí mismos, de su entorno cultural y su capacidad de producción poética. Además, las referencias a las desigualdades sociales en Brasil utilizando como eje motivador de leer la poesía de Conceição Evaristo relacionada con la memoria, la lucha y la apreciación de ascendencia africana. Las aportaciones teóricas sobre la situación socio-interaccionismo, la poesía, la poesía en la escuela y la secuencia didáctica colaboran para afirmar que el estudiante de escuela pública en su discurso revela influencia del entorno familiar, social y cultural, sino también el entorno educativo, así como los primeros signos de sentimiento nacional: una mayoría excluida. Su poesía haciendo tiene sus raíces en el entorno socio-cultural y geográfica, lo que denota un principio revuelta, sin embargo, con el reconocimiento de las contribuciones de las clases desfavorecidas para la construcción de nuestro país, el estudiante tiene otras cuestiones, como el mestizo, la identificación África y el orgullo de su origen, la memoria y la cultura. Por lo tanto, se confirmam la relación rizomáticas entre las dos realidades. La elección de la investigación de intervención, en la confluencia con la investigación-acción y la investigación participativa se debe al hecho de que el intercambio de experiencias en la investigación científica es rica y significativa. Con el uso de una secuencia didáctica, cuyo eje sentir la poesía, analizar textos y hacer poesía, el estudiante es llevado a la percepción de las ventanas del universo contenida en este género literario, que es una herramienta comunicativa que ofrece numerosas posibilidades expresión, conocimiento del otro y reconocer mutuamente.

Critério de correntropia no treinamento de redes fuzzy wavelet neural networks para identificação de sistemas dinâmicos não lineares

The great interest in nonlinear system identification is mainly due to the fact that a large amount of real systems are complex and need to have their nonlinearities considered so that their models can be successfully used in applications of control, prediction, inference, among others. This work evaluates the application of Fuzzy Wavelet Neural Networks (FWNN) to identify nonlinear dynamical systems subjected to noise and outliers. Generally, these elements cause negative effects on the identification procedure, resulting in erroneous interpretations regarding the dynamical behavior of the system. The FWNN combines in a single structure the ability to deal with uncertainties of fuzzy logic, the multiresolution characteristics of wavelet theory and learning and generalization abilities of the artificial neural networks. Usually, the learning procedure of these neural networks is realized by a gradient based method, which uses the mean squared error as its cost function. This work proposes the replacement of this traditional function by an Information Theoretic Learning similarity measure, called correntropy. With the use of this similarity measure, higher order statistics can be considered during the FWNN training process. For this reason, this measure is more suitable for non-Gaussian error distributions and makes the training less sensitive to the presence of outliers. In order to evaluate this replacement, FWNN models are obtained in two identification case studies: a real nonlinear system, consisting of a multisection tank, and a simulated system based on a model of the human knee joint. The results demonstrate that the application of correntropy as the error backpropagation algorithm cost function makes the identification procedure using FWNN models more robust to outliers. However, this is only achieved if the gaussian kernel width of correntropy is properly adjusted.

Dádiva e internet: os artífices dos tutoriais de software livre

The research proposes a reflection on tutorial videos from Youtube, seen as a form of gift in modern society. Our reflection parts form a perspective of mutual exchange, which avoids the patterns of trade with current economic purposes. We present these video producers as craftsmen of cyberculture due to the skill and competence which they transmit their knowledge. The research is consisted by the observation of video tutorials on YouTube over the Linux operating system and its distributions. Analyzing the interactions between video producers, users and the website. The analysis is based on the classic Mauss (2003) and his reinterpretations of Caille (1998, 2001, 2002, 2006), Godbout (1992, 1998) assisted by Aime Cossetta (2010) and Sennett (2009) to help understand the idea of the craftsmen. The Internet as an open territory in expansion ables us to understand that the relationship in this medium also constitutes the reciprocal links pointed out by Mauss in the early twentieth century. The circulation of intangible property, in this case the knowledge beyond the establishment of social links, promotes a collaborative extent to produce the common in cyberspace.

Plano amostral, ponderação e efeitos do delineamento da Pesquisa Nacional de Saúde Bucal

OBJETIVO: Estimar la prevalencia y la extensión de la caries radicular en la población adulta y anciana de Brasil. MÉTODOS: A partir de los datos de la Investigación Nacional de Salud Bucal (SBBrasil 2010) se examinaron 9.564 adultos y 7.509 ancianos en domicilios de las 26 capitales y en el Distrito Federal y de 150 municipios del interior de cada macro región. Se implementaron criterios de diagnóstico establecidos por la Organización Mundial de la Salud. Para estudio de la prevalencia y de extensión se utilizó el índice de caries radicular y el índice de raíces cariadas y obturadas. RESULTADOS: La prevalencia de caries radicular fue de 16,7% en los adultos y 13,6% en los ancianos; el índice de raíces cariadas y obturadas fue de 0,42 y 0,32 respectivamente, siendo la mayor parte compuesta por caries no tratadas. Se observaron diferencias en la experiencia de caries radicular entre capitales y macro regiones, con valores mayores en capitales del Norte y Noreste. El índice de caries radicular en los adultos varió de 1,4% en Aracaju (SE) a 15,1% en Salvador (BA) y en los ancianos de 3,5% en Porto Velho (RO) a 29,9% en Palmas (TO). Se verificó incremento de caries radicular con la edad y mayor expresividad de la enfermedad en hombres de ambos grupos etarios. CONCLUSIONES: Se identificó una gran variación de la prevalencia y extensión de la caries radicular entre y dentro de las regiones de Brasil, tanto en adultos como en ancianos, y la mayor parte de la caries radicular se encuentra no tratada. Se recomienda la incorporación de este agravio al sistema de vigilancia en salud bucal, debido a su tendencia creciente.

Contribuições em escalonamento e análise de desempenho de redes WirelessHART

Wireless Communication is a trend in the industrial environment nowadays and on this trend, we can highlight the WirelessHART technology. In this situation, it is natural the search for new improvements in the technology and such improvements can be related directly to the routing and scheduling algorithms. In the present thesis, we present a literature review about the main specific solutions for Routing and scheduling for WirelessHART. The thesis also proposes a new scheduling algorithm called Flow Scheduling that intends to improve superframe utilization and flexibility aspects. For validation purposes, we develop a simulation module for the Network Simulator 3 (NS-3) that models aspects like positioning, signal attenuation and energy consumption and provides an link individual error configuration. The module also allows the creation of the scheduling superframe using the Flow and Han Algorithms. In order to validate the new algorithms, we execute a series of comparative tests and evaluate the algorithms performance for link allocation, delay and superframe occupation. In order to validate the physical layer of the simulation module, we statically configure the routing and scheduling aspects and perform reliability and energy consumption tests using various literature topologies and error probabilities.

Contribuições em escalonamento e análise de desempenho de redes WirelessHART

Wireless Communication is a trend in the industrial environment nowadays and on this trend, we can highlight the WirelessHART technology. In this situation, it is natural the search for new improvements in the technology and such improvements can be related directly to the routing and scheduling algorithms. In the present thesis, we present a literature review about the main specific solutions for Routing and scheduling for WirelessHART. The thesis also proposes a new scheduling algorithm called Flow Scheduling that intends to improve superframe utilization and flexibility aspects. For validation purposes, we develop a simulation module for the Network Simulator 3 (NS-3) that models aspects like positioning, signal attenuation and energy consumption and provides an link individual error configuration. The module also allows the creation of the scheduling superframe using the Flow and Han Algorithms. In order to validate the new algorithms, we execute a series of comparative tests and evaluate the algorithms performance for link allocation, delay and superframe occupation. In order to validate the physical layer of the simulation module, we statically configure the routing and scheduling aspects and perform reliability and energy consumption tests using various literature topologies and error probabilities.

Estudo da transição de fase da percolação através da entropia da informação

Various physical systems have dynamics that can be modeled by percolation processes. Percolation is used to study issues ranging from fluid diffusion through disordered media to fragmentation of a computer network caused by hacker attacks. A common feature of all of these systems is the presence of two non-coexistent regimes associated to certain properties of the system. For example: the disordered media can allow or not allow the flow of the fluid depending on its porosity. The change from one regime to another characterizes the percolation phase transition. The standard way of analyzing this transition uses the order parameter, a variable related to some characteristic of the system that exhibits zero value in one of the regimes and a nonzero value in the other. The proposal introduced in this thesis is that this phase transition can be investigated without the explicit use of the order parameter, but rather through the Shannon entropy. This entropy is a measure of the uncertainty degree in the information content of a probability distribution. The proposal is evaluated in the context of cluster formation in random graphs, and we apply the method to both classical percolation (Erd¨os- R´enyi) and explosive percolation. It is based in the computation of the entropy contained in the cluster size probability distribution and the results show that the transition critical point relates to the derivatives of the entropy. Furthermore, the difference between the smooth and abrupt aspects of the classical and explosive percolation transitions, respectively, is reinforced by the observation that the entropy has a maximum value in the classical transition critical point, while that correspondence does not occurs during the explosive percolation.

Estudo da transição de fase da percolação através da entropia da informação

Various physical systems have dynamics that can be modeled by percolation processes. Percolation is used to study issues ranging from fluid diffusion through disordered media to fragmentation of a computer network caused by hacker attacks. A common feature of all of these systems is the presence of two non-coexistent regimes associated to certain properties of the system. For example: the disordered media can allow or not allow the flow of the fluid depending on its porosity. The change from one regime to another characterizes the percolation phase transition. The standard way of analyzing this transition uses the order parameter, a variable related to some characteristic of the system that exhibits zero value in one of the regimes and a nonzero value in the other. The proposal introduced in this thesis is that this phase transition can be investigated without the explicit use of the order parameter, but rather through the Shannon entropy. This entropy is a measure of the uncertainty degree in the information content of a probability distribution. The proposal is evaluated in the context of cluster formation in random graphs, and we apply the method to both classical percolation (Erd¨os- R´enyi) and explosive percolation. It is based in the computation of the entropy contained in the cluster size probability distribution and the results show that the transition critical point relates to the derivatives of the entropy. Furthermore, the difference between the smooth and abrupt aspects of the classical and explosive percolation transitions, respectively, is reinforced by the observation that the entropy has a maximum value in the classical transition critical point, while that correspondence does not occurs during the explosive percolation.

Metodologia para análise da dependabilidade de Smart Grids

Smart Grids are a new trend of electric power distribution, the future of current systems. These networks are continually being introduced in order to improve the reliability of systems, providing alternatives to energy supply and cost savings. Faced with increasing electric power grids complexity, the energy demand and the introduction of alternative sources to energy generation, all components of system require a fully integration in order to achieve high reliability and availability levels (dependability). The systematization of a Smart Grid from the Fault Tree formalism enable the quantitative evaluation of dependability of a specific scenario. In this work, a methodology for dependability evaluation of Smart Grids is proposed. A study of case is described in order to validate the proposal. With the use of this methodology, it is possible to estimate during the early design phase the reliability, availability of Smart Grid beyond to identify the critical points from the failure and repair distributions of components.

Foraminíferos, ostracodes e microfauna associada da plataforma continental equatorial norte-rio-grandense, NE Brasil: área Porto do Mangue a Galinhos

This study was conducted in the adjacent Brazilian equatorial inner shelf to Rio Grande do Norte, between the region of Porto do Mangue and Galinhos. The main objective is the characterization of biogenic sediments, especially foraminifera and ostracod collected on the surface of the seafloor. The methodology involved standard procedures including literature, surveys, processing of samples in the laboratory and identification of foraminifera and ostracods by genera or species under stereo microscopy and scanning electron microscopy (SEM). Multivariate statistical analyzes and study of ecological indexes were also applied to the study of foraminifera. Three transects, from inner shelf to slope were sampled: profile 01 (east, near Galos), profile 02 (center, near the city of Macau) and profile 03 (west, near Ponta do Mel). Results indicated the predominance of benthic foraminifera and little plankton occurrence. Benthic foraminifera genera observed in abundance were Quinqueloculina, Textularia, Globigerina and Pyrgo, Quinqueloculina, Textularia, Pyrgo, Ammonia, Elphidium, Pseudononion, Peneroplis, Bolivina and Poroeponides, occurred more frequently. Less frequently been described Amphistegina, Archaias, Bigenerina, Cibicides, Cassidulina, Amphicorina, Cornuspira, Paterina, Hopkunsina, Oolina, Uvigerina, Fusenkoina, Nonionella, Amphisorus, Wiesrella, Reussella, Reophax, Nodosaria, Marginulina and Cyclogyra. Six genera of ostracods were also identified: Puriana variabilis / P. convoluted?, Loxoconcha sp, Bairdiidae, Xestoleberis sp, Hemicytheridae and Ruggiericythere sp. Groups of organisms found in the studied shelf presented chemical composition of Ca, C, O, Na, Cl, Al, Mg, and Si. The proportions of chemical elements may vary according to the type of biogenic sediment, with the highest values identified as Ca, C, Cl, Na and O. The absolute dating by carbon 14 method indicated sediments of different colors (light and dark), correspond to a single age from 3000 to 6000 years BP, related to the Quaternary. These data intend to complement information about biogenic sediments in the Brazilian continental shelf, especially in the Northeast, where there is a lack of such studies.

Foraminíferos, ostracodes e microfauna associada da plataforma continental equatorial norte-rio-grandense, NE Brasil: área Porto do Mangue a Galinhos

This study was conducted in the adjacent Brazilian equatorial inner shelf to Rio Grande do Norte, between the region of Porto do Mangue and Galinhos. The main objective is the characterization of biogenic sediments, especially foraminifera and ostracod collected on the surface of the seafloor. The methodology involved standard procedures including literature, surveys, processing of samples in the laboratory and identification of foraminifera and ostracods by genera or species under stereo microscopy and scanning electron microscopy (SEM). Multivariate statistical analyzes and study of ecological indexes were also applied to the study of foraminifera. Three transects, from inner shelf to slope were sampled: profile 01 (east, near Galos), profile 02 (center, near the city of Macau) and profile 03 (west, near Ponta do Mel). Results indicated the predominance of benthic foraminifera and little plankton occurrence. Benthic foraminifera genera observed in abundance were Quinqueloculina, Textularia, Globigerina and Pyrgo, Quinqueloculina, Textularia, Pyrgo, Ammonia, Elphidium, Pseudononion, Peneroplis, Bolivina and Poroeponides, occurred more frequently. Less frequently been described Amphistegina, Archaias, Bigenerina, Cibicides, Cassidulina, Amphicorina, Cornuspira, Paterina, Hopkunsina, Oolina, Uvigerina, Fusenkoina, Nonionella, Amphisorus, Wiesrella, Reussella, Reophax, Nodosaria, Marginulina and Cyclogyra. Six genera of ostracods were also identified: Puriana variabilis / P. convoluted?, Loxoconcha sp, Bairdiidae, Xestoleberis sp, Hemicytheridae and Ruggiericythere sp. Groups of organisms found in the studied shelf presented chemical composition of Ca, C, O, Na, Cl, Al, Mg, and Si. The proportions of chemical elements may vary according to the type of biogenic sediment, with the highest values identified as Ca, C, Cl, Na and O. The absolute dating by carbon 14 method indicated sediments of different colors (light and dark), correspond to a single age from 3000 to 6000 years BP, related to the Quaternary. These data intend to complement information about biogenic sediments in the Brazilian continental shelf, especially in the Northeast, where there is a lack of such studies.

Avaliação da potencialidade de argilas do Rio Grande do Norte – Brasil

DUTRA, Ricardo Peixoto Suassuna ; SILVA, Jaquelígia Brito da ; MORAES, Márcio Luiz Varela Nogueira de ; NASCIMENTO, R. M. ; GOMES, Uilame Umbelino ; PASKOCIMAS, Carlos Alberto . Avaliação da potencialidade de argilas do Rio Grande do Norte. Cerâmica Industrial, v. 13, p. 47-50, 2008.

Percepções de maturidade em gerenciamento de projetos à luz da nova gestão pública: uma investigação com gestores das secretarias estaduais do Rio Grande do Norte

This study aimed to measure the perception of maturity project management of state boards of Rio Grande do Norte by the perception of its managers. Argues that project management has been highlighted as a critical factor for the success of any organization, because the projects are directly related to the set of activities that result in organizational innovation as products, services and processes and the improvement of project management is directly aligned with the main pillars of the New Public Management. Methodologically, this is a quantitative research of a descriptive nature in which 161 forms were applied with coordinators and subcoordinators of state departments of Rio Grande do Norte, culminating in a sampling error of less than 6% to 95% confidence according to the procedures finite sampling. The process of tabulation and analysis was done using the package Statistical Package for Social Sciences - SPSS 18.0 and worked with techniques such as mean, standard deviation, frequency distributions, cluster analysis and factor analysis. The results indicate that the levels of maturity in project management in state departments of Rio Grande do Norte is below the national average and that behavioral skills are the main problem for improving management in these departments. It was possible to detect the existence of two groups of different perceptions about the management of projects, indicating, according to the managers, there are islands of excellence in project management in some sectors of the state departments. It was also observed that there are eight factors that affect maturity in project management: Planning and Control , Development of Management Skills , Project Management Environment , Acceptance of the Subject Project Management , Stimulus to Performance , Project Evaluation and Learning , Project Management Office and Visibility of Project Managers . It concludes that the project management in state departments of Rio Grande do Norte has no satisfactory levels of maturity in project management, affecting the levels of efficiency and effectiveness of the state apparatus, which shows that some of the assumptions that guide the New Public Management are not getting the levels of excellence nailed by this management model