Caracterização estatística de processos sísmicos via Distribuição Generalizada de Pareto. Estudo de caso: João Câmara-RN

The work is to make a brief discussion of methods to estimate the parameters of the Generalized Pareto distribution (GPD). Being addressed the following techniques: Moments (moments), Maximum Likelihood (MLE), Biased Probability Weighted Moments (PWMB), Unbiased Probability Weighted Moments (PWMU), Mean Power Density Divergence (MDPD), Median (MED), Pickands (PICKANDS), Maximum Penalized Likelihood (MPLE), Maximum Goodness-of-fit (MGF) and the Maximum Entropy (POME) technique, the focus of this manuscript. By way of illustration adjustments were made for the Generalized Pareto distribution, for a sequence of earthquakes intraplacas which occurred in the city of João Câmara in the northeastern region of Brazil, which was monitored continuously for two years (1987 and 1988). It was found that the MLE and POME were the most efficient methods, giving them basically mean squared errors. Based on the threshold of 1.5 degrees was estimated the seismic risk for the city, and estimated the level of return to earthquakes of intensity 1.5°, 2.0°, 2.5°, 3.0° and the most intense earthquake never registered in the city, which occurred in November 1986 with magnitude of about 5.2º

Atividades educativas na rede pública de ensino: efeitos sobre a higiene oral e o nível de informação em Saúde Bucal

The contents introduction concerning the individual health cares reveals important since the school education. In this direction, the present study objectified to know an effect of Oral Health education intervention in the oral hygiene and in the schools children information level, of 4º e 5º basic education years. The study was composed by two groups, chosen of random form: control group (n = 115) and experimental group (n = 132), with 247 public net school children in total sample. The experimental group participated of some educative activities in Oral Health, with biweekly frequency, during the 4 months period, given for a surgeon-dentistry. Both the groups were submitted to a clinical examination for a previous verification of the Plaque Index (PI) and of Loe Silness Gingival Index (GI). A questionnaire with closed questions on Oral Health was applied before and after to verify the school children rightness index. After the intervention, the final data, represented for the PI, GI and Rightness Index verification, has been collected for statistical analyses through the chi-square test to a 95 % of reliable level, using the SPSS 10,0 software. The PI and GI were categorized in high and low on the initials index basis medium; already the Rightness Index was categorized in inadequate (< 50%) and adequate (≥ 50%). It was verified that the PI (p = 0,014; IC 0.24-0.86) and the GI (p = 0,013; IC 0,28-0,84) presented differences statistically significant, after the education activities, when compared to with the control, favoring the experimental group. It was verified too the experimental group got greater rightness index, presenting difference highly significant (p<0,0001; IC 3,73-26,81). It was still observed that there was no association between the oral hygiene indicators and the school children information level. Ahead the results, it can been concluded that education activities related in the school routine were capable to give positives effects in the oral hygiene control and in the information level about Oral Health, however, not necessarily, the individual with bigger information is that one who has practiced an oral hygiene more adjusted. One become necessary, however, that the education in Oral Health occurs of permanent and integrated form with others school actors, for the positive effect does not lose the student s life longterm

Adaptação transcultural para o Português/Brasil do instrumento vulnerability to abuse screening scale (VASS)

Esse trabalho objetivou promover a adaptação transcultural para o Brasil da VASS. Os passos para adaptação transcultural seguirão a proposta de operacionalização alicerçado na apreciação de diferentes tipos de equivalência: a conceitual e de itens, a semântica e a de mensuração. Para alcançar as duas primeiras etapas utilizou-se as técnicas de tradução e retrotradução associada ao procedimento intitulado Painel de Especialistas. Para o pré-teste e verificação de equivalência de mensuração, aplicou-se o questionário com uma população de 30 e 66 idosos, respectivamente. Para as análises dos resultados foi utilizada a estatística descritiva e inferencial, em especial o KR-20, teste T de student, correlação de Pearson e ANOVA univariada, bem como o método kappa de Fleiss para verificação do índice de confiabilidade. Verificou-se que o conceito utilizado para construção do instrumento, bem como seus itens se mostram adequados à investigação do fenômeno. Evidenciou-se boa equivalência semântica entre os itens das retrotraduções e do instrumento original, especialmente quanto aos resultados de T1 R1. Os juízes optaram pelo uso de 11 itens de T1 à versão-síntese. A equivalência operacional mostrou-se satisfatória. Em geral, os resultados apresentados mostraram-se aceitáveis. Quanto à etapa da equivalência de mensuração, verificou-se que a idade dos participantes variou entre 60 a 84 anos, prevalecendo respondentes idosas (n = 38), representando 57,6% da amostra estudada. O valor do KR-20 para o escore geral do instrumento foi de 0,688 (IC95%: 0,670). Os valores encontrados para as quatro dimensões propostas pelos autores do estudo inicial do instrumento foram 0,528, 0,289, 0,552 e 0,303, respectivamente. Apenas os valores de consistência interna das subescalas Vulnerabilidade e Coerção mostraram-se aproximados aos encontrados no estudo original, a saber, 0,550 e 0,390, respectivamente. Verificou-se que com a retirada dos itens nº 04, nº 06 e nº 10, houve aumento do índice de consistência interna da escala total. Já quanto aos valores da consistência interna das subescalas, percebeu-se que apenas com a retirada dos itens nº 09, referente à escala que dimensiona o Desânimo, e nº 12, item da subescala Coerção, é que houve acréscimo nesses valores. Destaca-se que esses são resultados preliminares, uma vez que após a verificação da adequabilidade e de padrões psicométricos iniciais acerca do uso do instrumento para a população idosa, ainda há de se dar continuidade à etapa concernente à verificação de propriedades psicométricas robustas do instrumento, que indiquem, por exemplo, evidências de fidedignidade em situação de teste-reteste, validade de constructo e de critério, se possível e aplicável. A principal limitação do estudo é a falta de um instrumento padrão-ouro para testar a fidedignidade, sensibilidade e especificidade do instrumento em questão. Apesar desta limitação, a adaptação transcultural e a verificação de propriedades psicométricas preliminares do instrumento de uma medida de autorrelato que afere indicativo de violência doméstica contra o idoso tem sua relevância e foi satisfatória

Desigualdade regional da mortalidade neonatal no Brasil

In Brazil, despite the decline in infant mortality in recent decades it still has high rates going against recommended by WHO. Being the largest percentage of infant mortality rate composed of neonatal deaths. Objective: A study was conducted to analyze the spatial distribution of neonatal mortality and its correlation with the biological, socioeconomic and maternal and child health care in the Brazilian states in the period from 2006 to 2010. Method: The study made thematic maps and correlation (LISA) for verification of spatial dependence and multiple linear regression models. Results: Was found that there is no spatial autocorrelation for neonatal mortality in the Brazilian states (R = 0.002, p = 0.48). Most of variables were correlated (r> 0.3, p <0.05) with neonatal mortality, forming clusters in the North and Northeast, with the highest rates of teenage mothers, low household income per capita, lower prenatal appointments and beds of Neonatal Intensive Care Unit. The number of Neonatal UCI beds remained independent effect after regression analysis. Conclusion: The study concludes that regional inequalities in living conditions and especially the access to maternal and child health services contribute to the unequal distribution of neonatal mortality in Brazil

Produção e validação de um indicador de saúde bucal para idosos a partir de dados secundários do SB Brasil 2010

Dentre os vários aspectos da saúde do idoso, a saúde bucal merece atenção especial pelo fato de que, historicamente, nos serviços odontológicos, não se considera esse grupo populacional como prioridade de atenção. Por isso, se faz necessária a produção de um indicador multidimensional capaz de mensurar todas as alterações bucais encontradas em um idoso, facilitando a categorização da saúde bucal como um todo. Tal indicador representará um importante instrumento capaz de elencar prioridades de atenção voltadas à população idosa. Portanto, o estudo em questão propõe a produção e validação de um indicador de saúde bucal a partir dos dados secundários coletados pelo projeto SB Brasil 2010 referente ao grupo etário de 65 a 74 anos. A amostra foi representada pelos 7619 indivíduos do grupo etário de 65 a 74 anos que participaram da pesquisa nas 5 (cinco) regiões do Brasil. Tais indivíduos foram submetidos à avaliação epidemiológica das condições de saúde bucal, a partir dos índices CPO-d, CPI e PIP. Além disso, verificou-se o uso e necessidade de prótese, bem como características sociais, econômicas e demográficas. Uma análise fatorial identificou um número relativamente pequeno de fatores comuns, através da análise de componentes principais. Após a nomenclatura dos fatores, foi realizada a soma dos escores fatoriais por indivíduo. Por último, a dicotomização dessa soma nos forneceu o indicador de saúde bucal proposto. Para esse estudo foram incluídas na análise fatorial 12 variáveis de saúde bucal oriundas do banco de dados do SB Brasil 2010 e, também 3 variáveis socioeconômicas e demográficas. Com base no critério de Kaiser, observa-se que foram retidos cinco fatores que explicaram 70,28% da variância total das variáveis incluídas no modelo. O fator 1 (um) explica sozinho 32,02% dessa variância, o fator 2 (dois) 14,78%, enquanto que os fatores 3 (três), 4 (quatro) e 5 (cinco) explicam 8,90%, 7,89% e 6,68%, respectivamente. Por meio das cargas fatoriais, o fator um foi denominado dente hígido e pouco uso de prótese , o dois doença periodontal presente , o três necessidade de reabilitação , já o quarto e quinto fator foram denominados de cárie e condição social favorável , respectivamente. Para garantir a representatividade do indicador proposto, realizou-se uma segunda análise fatorial em uma subamostra da população de idosos investigados. Por outro lado, a aplicabilidade do indicador produzido foi testada por meio da associação do mesmo com outras variáveis do estudo. Por fim, Cabe ressaltar que, o indicador aqui produzido foi capaz de agregar diver sas informações a respeito da saúde bucal e das condições sociais desses indivíduos, traduzindo assim, diversos dados em uma informação simples, que facilita o olhar dos gestores de saúde sobre as reais necessidades de intervenções em relação à saúde bucal de determinada população

A utilização da informação contábil na atividade pecuária do Estado do Rio Grande do Norte: um enfoque nos demonstrativos gerados para tomada de decisão

This work deals with the cattle raising activity in Brasil, it´s importance for the stete of Rio Grande do Norte. A conceptual review is done regarding accounting information and considering it as an essencial input for economical and finantial decision making, related to the state cattle rainsing environment. It also aims to expose visions related to the role and the importance of Accounting as system that colects, treats and supplies managerial information. A brief historic of Accounting is done, emphasizing the Accounting Demonstration Structure and its use in the decision making process, as well as the contribution it has node for the cattle raising activity in Brazil. The research´s results show that accounting information is used partially in the finantial decision making process, and it is pointed out that the Inventory was the most relevant tool with 95,% of the cases, followed by the Income and Outlay reports with 85.0%,Production with 82,0% and Cost reports with 80,0%, the Demonstrative of the Cash Flow (DFC) with 82.5%, the Patrimonial Balance (PB) with 22.5%, and the Demonstrative of the Exercise Result (DER) with 20.0% of use. The research concludes that Accounting information is not throughly used in the economic and finantial decision making of the managers of cattle raising in the Rio Grande do Norte State, although, 95% of the sample consider then important. This may imply that there are diffilculties in measurement of the managerial decisions as well as the business whole

O uso da informação contábil no setor sucroalcooleiro: um estudo nas indústrias de Alagoas

This study has the purpose of discussion and reflection of how the accounting information in the managemental area are used by the sugar & alcohol industry, located at State of Alagoas, aiming to identify if them please their managers expectations in the process of taking decision. Ahead of an existent universe of 27 (twenty seven) companies registered at the Sugar & Alcohol Labor Union of State of Alagoas SINDAÇUCAR files, were collected 14 (fourteen) questionnaires to support the current research classified as explorative and descriptive. The junction of these two kinds of research resulted in a quantitative and perceptive analysis of the use of the accounting information in the process of taking decision of the Sugar & Alcohol industry in Alagoas. The results demonstrated in this research indicate that, although the managers consider relevant the information at cost area, they do not use them in the process of taking decision. The reports emitted by accountancy are only financial, such as balance sheets, income statement, financial flow, among others factors. The importance order that the managers give to the accounting information and the kind of information that they use in the process of taking decision do not indicates that they use the accountancy in administration level. The statistics analysis of the files collected allows infer that the information provided by accountancy are considered important, however are few used at the manager process

Estratigrafia de sequências do intervalo aptiano ao albino na Bacia do Araripe, NE do Brasil

This study has as a main objective to make a detailed stratigraphic analysis of the Aptian-Albian interval in the east part of Araripe Basin, NE of Brazil which correspond, litostratigraphically, to Rio Da Batateira, Crato, Ipubi and Romualdo formations. The stratigraphic analysis was based on three different stages, the 1D, 2D and 3D analysis; these ones were adapted to the sequence stratigraphy concepts in order to create a chronostratigraphic framework for the study area within the basin. The database used in the present study contains field and well information, wells that belong to Santana Project, carried out by the Ministério de Minas e Energia- DNPM- CPRM from 1977 to 1978. The analysis 1D, which was done separately for each well and outcrop allowed the recognition of 13 sedimentary facies, mainly divided based on predominant litologies and sedimentary structures. Such facies are lithologically represented by pebble, sandstones, claystones, margas and evaporates; these facies are associated in order to characterize different depositional systems, that integrate from the continental environment (fluvial system and lacustre), paralic system (delta system and lagunar) to the marine environment (shelfenvironment). The first one, the fluvial system was divided into two subtypes: meandering fluvial system, characterized by fill channel and floodplain deposits; the facies of this system are associated vertically according to the textural thinning upward cycles (dirting-up trend pattern in well logs). Lacustrine environment is mainly related with the lithotypes of the Crato Formation, it shows a good distribution within the basin, been composed by green claystone deposits and calcareous laminated. Deltaic System represented by prodelta and delta front deposits which coarsening upward tendency. Lagunar system is characterised by the presence of anhydrite and gypsum deposits besides the black claystone deposits with vegetal fragments which do not contain a fauna typically marine. The marine platform system is composed by successions of black and gray claystone with fossiliferous fauna of Dinoflagellates (Spiniferites Mantell, Subtilisphaera Jain e Subtilisphaera Millipied genre) typical of this kind of depositional system. The sedimentary facies described are vertically arranged in cycles with progradational patterns which form textural coersening upward cycles and retrogradational, represented by textural thinning dowward cycles. Based in these cycles, in their stack pattern and the vertical change between these patterns, the systems tracks and the depositional sequences were recognized. The Low System Track (LST) and High System Track (HST) are composed by cycles with progradational stack pattern, whereas the Trangessive System Track (TST) is composed by retrogradational stack pattern cycles. The 2D stratigraphic analysis was done through the carrying out of two stratigraphic sections. For the selection of the datum the deepest maximum flooding surface was chosen, inside the Sequence 1, the execution of these sections allowed to understand the behaviour of six depositional systems along the study area, which were interpreted as cycles of second order or supercycles (cycles between 3 and 10 Ma), according to the Vail, et al (1977) classification. The Sequence 1, the oldest of the six identified is composed by the low, transgressive and high systems tracks. The first two system tracks are formed exclusively by fluvial deposits of the Rio da Batateira Formation whereas the third one includes deltaic and lacustrine deposits of the Crato Formation. The sequences 2 and 3 are formed by the transgressive systems tracks (lake spreading phase) and the highstand system track (lake backward phase). The TST of these sequences are formed by lacustrine deposits whereas HST contains deltaic deposits, indicating high rates of sedimentary supply at the time of it s deposition. The sequence 4 is composed by LST, TST and HST, The TST4 shows a significant fall of the lake base level, this track was developed in conditions of low relation between the creation rate of space of accommodation and the sedimentary influx. The TST4 marks the third phase of expansion of the lacustrine system in the section after the basin´s rift, the lacustrine system established in the previous track starts a backward phase in conditions that the sedimentary supply rate exceeds the creation rate of space accommodation. The sequence 5 was developed in two different phases, the first one is related with the latest expansion stage of the lake, (TST5), the basal track of this sequence. In this phase the base level of the lake rose considerably. The second phase (related to the TST5) indicates the end of the lacustrine domain in the Araripe Basin and the change to lagunar system ant tidal flat, with great portions in the supratidal. These systems were formed by restricted lagoons, with shallow level of water and with intermittent connections with the sea. This, was the phase when the Araripe Basin recorded the most several arid conditions of the whole interval studied, Aptian Albian, conditions that allow the formation of evaporitic deposits. The sequence 6 began its deposition after a significant fall of the sea (LST6). The sequence 6 is without any doubtlessly, the sequence that has deposits that prove the effective entrance of the sea into the Araripe Basin. The TST6, end of this sequence, represents the moment which the sea reaches its maximum level during the Aptian Albian time. The stratigraphic analysis of the Aptian Albian interval made possible the understanding that the main control in the development of the depositional sequences recognized in the Araripe Basin were the variations of the local base level, which are controlled itself by the climate changes

Análise da deformação pós-Rifte na Bacia do Araripe, Nordeste do Brasil

The Araripe Basin is located over Precambrian terrains of the Borborema Province, being part of Northeast Brazil inner basins. Its origin is related to the fragmentation of the Gondwana supercontinent and consequently opening of South Atlantic during early Cretaceous. The basin has a sedimentary infill encompassing four distinct evolution stages, comprising Paleozoic syneclisis, pre-rift, rift and post-rift. The target of this study comprises the post-rift section of the basin focusing deformational styles which affect evaporates from Ipubi Member of the Santana Formation, which is composed by gypsum and anidrite layers interbedded with shales. These units occur widespread across the basin. In the central part of the basin, near Nova Olinda-Santana do Cariri, evaporites are affected by an essentialy brittle deformation tipified by fibrous gypsum filled fractures, cutting massive layers of gypsum and anidrite. Veins with variable orientations and dips are observed in the region distributed over three main populations: i) a dominant NWSE with shallow to moderate NE dipping population, consisting of gypsum filled veins in which fibers are normal to vein walls; i) NE-SW veins with moderate SE dips containing subhorizontal growth fibers; and iii) N-S veins with shallow E-W dips with fibers oblique to vein walls. In the west portion of the basin, near Trindade-Ipubi-Araripina towns, evaporate layers are dominantly constituted by gypsum/anidrite finely stratified, showing a minor density of veins. These layers are affected by a unique style of deformation, more ductile, typified by gentle to open horizontal normal folding with several tens of meters length and with double plunging NW-SE or NE-SW hinges, configuring domic features. In detail, gypsum/anidrite laminae are affected by metre to decimeter scale close to tight folding, usually kinked, with broken hinges, locally turning into box folds. Veins show NE-SW main directions with shallow NE dips, growth fibers are parallel to vein walls, constituting slickenfibers. This region is marked by faults that affect Araripina Formation with NW-SE, NE-SW and E-W directions. The main structural styles and general orientations of structures which affected the post-rift section of Araripe Basin yielded important kinematic information analysis which led us to infer a E-W to NE-SW extension direction to the northeastern part of the Basin, whereas in the southeastern part, extension occurred in N-S direction. Thus, it was possible to determine a regional kinematic setting, through this analysis, characterizing a NE-SW to ENE-WSW system for the post-rift section, which is compatible with the tension settings for the Sout American Plate since Albian. Local variations at the fluid pressure linked (or not) to sedimentary overload variation define local tension settings. This way, at the northeastern portion of the basin, the post-rift deformation was governed by a setting which σ 1 is sub-horizontal trending NE-SW and, σ 3 is sub-vertical, emphasizing a reverse fault situation. At the southwestern portion however there was characterized a strike slip fault setting, featuring σ 1 trending ENEWSW and σ3 trending NNW-SSE

Lugar, saúde e informação: os círculos de informação da atenção básica do SUS no contexto na disputa pelo conceito de saúde

Through the analysis of the informational activity at the primary care of SUS at the scale of places, this dissertation has as central objective to observe the dispute for the concepts of health and sickness, in the ambit of Brazilian Health Movement, featuring, on one hand, the clinic, biomedical or flexnerian line hegemonic, scientifically restrict and the primary frame of references for the Brazilian health politics and on the other hand a multiplicity of new proposals and critic thoughts to the current model, which have , as common characteristic, the worry with a territorial way of thinking the health context, therefore beyond the biological processes. On the first chapter we jut out with details these scientific and ideological movements, on a wider way, but also on the specificities of the public health s information politics. On the second chapter we analyze the downward health information circle at the basic care, observing the operational processes of the information s technical systems SIAB and e-SUS. On the third and last chapter, we give references to think about an upward health information circle, centered on the places, ruled by the notions of autonomy, organic solidarity and communicational density. It would possess, as method s primary horizon, the local organization of production and managing of information through the work of the Health Community Agent, privileging therefore the urgency of the most contingent needs of the people in theirs every day s life

Medida de uma codificação de estímulos sonoros por potenciais pós-sinápticos e potenciais de campo local usando teoria da informação

Coding process is a fundamental aspect of cerebral functioning. The sensory stimuli transformation in neurophysiological responses has been a research theme in several areas of Neuroscience. One of the most used ways to measure a neural code e ciency is by the use of Information Theory measures, such as mutual information. Using these tools, recent studies show that in the auditory cortex both local eld potentials (LFPs) and action potential spiking times code information about sound stimuli. However, there are no studies applying Information Theory tools to investigate the e ciency of codes that use postsynaptics potentials (PSPs), alone and associated with LFP analysis. These signals are related in the sense that LFPs are partly created by joint action of several PSPs. The present dissertation reports information measures between PSP and LFP responses obtained in the primary auditory cortex of anaesthetized rats and auditory stimuli of distinct frequencies. Our results show that PSP responses hold information about sound stimuli in comparable levels and even greater than LFP responses. We have also found that PSPs and LFPs code sound information independently, since the joint analysis of these signals did neither show synergy nor redundancy.

Diferenciais de mortalidade adulta por nível de escolaridade no Brasil e regiões

The study of mortality by various differentials has been an important tool to guide public health policies, due to better describing the events of deaths in a population. This research aims to seek disparities in mortality according to educational level, sex and adulthood in large Brazilian regions and consequently for Brazil as a whole. A vast literature has shown that people with more education tend to have lower risk of death. Studies on inequalities in mortality by level of education in Brazil are still very specific and has still known very little about Brazil about mortality according to educational level, due to lack of information about the well-filled school in the records of deaths arising from the Mortality Information System (MIS) of the Ministry of Health. This data source has shown improvement in the coverage of sub reports in the last decade, however, it has still perceived negligence in completing the question regarding schooling of death (about 30% of registered deaths in 2010 to Brazil, Given this scenario, this work contributes to the national literature on the behavior of adult mortality differentials having as proposed, using data from the new variable mortality of the 2010 Census (CD 2010), assuming the characteristics of education of the head the household for deaths occurring in the same. It is therefore considered that the probability of mortality is homogeneous within the household. Events of deaths were corrected only for the records come from households where the head possessed levels of schooling and Instruction Elementary Education No Incomplete and Primary Education and Secondary Education Complete Incomplete through the Generations Extinct Adjusted method. With deaths already corrected, probabilities of death were calculated between 15 and 60 years life, as well as tables by sex and level of education to all regions of Brazil. No que se refere às probabilidades de morte por idade, nas idades entre 15 e 60 anos as maiores probabilidades seguem um gradiente, maior probabilidade para os menos escolarizados. Results corroborate the literature, the more educated the population is, the greater the life expectancy. In all Brazilian regions, life expectancy of the female population is greater than that of men at all levels of schooling. With respect to probabilities of death by age between the ages of 15 and 60 years the most likely follow a gradient, most likely to the least educated. At older ages (from 70 years), this behavior has presented another pattern, the lowest level of education has the lowest odds in the regions, North, Northeast, South and Midwest, except in the Southeast region

Metodologia para gerenciamento de projetos em tecnologia da informação baseada no guia PMBOK: um estudo de caso na Secretaria de Estado da Saúde Pública do Rio Grande do Norte

Nowadays the search for growth makes organizations seeking competitive advantages, project management shares this goal, through techniques that assist in the search for an improved management of the various fields of knowledge through a design methodology. The world is driven by projects and the search for ways to better manage activities such as time, cost and term towards the success of a particular project is something constant. A major contribution that IT can make to the health sector is the support for the management area. IT can integrate processes, optimize the interconnection between the various sectors, make hospitals have access to inside information of good quality, as well as support in the healthcare area, sharing pictures, uniting the various aspects of nursing and nursing service. The major challenge faced by the SESAP Information Technology sector at present is in project management in IT , which does not exist makes investments in the area are increasingly difficult due to this deficiency in management develop their own systems without cost additional to the State. This study seeks to build and strengthen the Project Management within the Department of Health through the implementation of a project office that will manage the final result of this work methodology based on PMBOK, and still show the functionality applied to development the state Hospital Management System that will later be installed on all Regional Health Units and proposing measures for the sustainability and development of the sector amid the difficulties of the current public service. Such action will result in a savings of more than R$ 107,000.00 (one hundred seven thousand) regarding spending private software currently used by the assignment of invested by the State of Rio Grande do Norte user licenses, representing more than 5 % of the total budget of the State Department of Public Health of the State

Indicador de vulnerabilidade agropecuária a extremos climáticos para o nordeste do Brasil

The effects of climate change on human societies have become the focus of many researchers for their research. Understanding weather patterns (circulation of the atmosphere, precipitation, temperature) is essences for predicting extreme weather, but analyze how these extreme events act in our society and look for ways to reduce the impact caused by these events is the great challenge. Using a concept very in the humanities and social sciences to understand these impacts and the adaptation of the society's vulnerability. The objective of this work is to develop and apply a methodology for evaluating fining scale and quantify the vulnerability of the Brazilian Northeast to climatic extremes, developing a methodology that combines aspects of vulnerability to drought, as well as socioeconomic and climatic indicators used to assess exposure, ability to adaptation and the sensitivity of geographical microregions of the region. The assessment of the susceptibility or degree of exposure to risk is the regional using the SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) by the degree of magnitude dried (MD), the rate of precipitation such as PCD (Precipitation Concentration Degree) and PCP (Precipitation Period Concentration) helped characterize and regional climatology, these indices showed satisfactory results in the pilot study of Rio Grande do Norte to assess the degree of exposure to drought. Regarding sensitivity agricultural / livestock multivariate statistical technique to factor analysis showed acceptable results for the proposed model using data for the period 1990-1999 (P1). The application of the analysis of vulnerability considering the adaptive capacity, as the adaptive disability have almost similar results with much of the region's vulnerability to extreme south of Bahia state as a part of the semiarid region has a degree of vulnerability among moderate and mean

Modelos de dispersão para extremos de precipitação. Estudo de caso: o nordeste do Brasil

In this thesis used four different methods in order to diagnose the precipitation extremes on Northeastern Brazil (NEB): Generalized Linear Model s via logistic regression and Poisson, extreme value theory analysis via generalized extre me value (GEV) and generalized Pareto (GPD) distributions and Vectorial Generalized Linea r Models via GEV (MVLG GEV). The logistic regression and Poisson models were used to identify the interactions between the precipitation extremes and other variables based on the odds ratios and relative risks. It was found that the outgoing longwave radiation was the indicator variable for the occurrence of extreme precipitation on eastern, northern and semi arid NEB, and the relative humidity was verified on southern NEB. The GEV and GPD distribut ions (based on the 95th percentile) showed that the location and scale parameters were presented the maximum on the eastern and northern coast NEB, the GEV verified a maximum core on western of Pernambuco influenced by weather systems and topography. The GEV and GPD shape parameter, for most regions the data fitted by Weibull negative an d Beta distributions (ξ < 0) , respectively. The levels and return periods of GEV (GPD) on north ern Maranhão (centerrn of Bahia) may occur at least an extreme precipitation event excee ding over of 160.9 mm /day (192.3 mm / day) on next 30 years. The MVLG GEV model found tha t the zonal and meridional wind components, evaporation and Atlantic and Pacific se a surface temperature boost the precipitation extremes. The GEV parameters show the following results: a) location ( ), the highest value was 88.26 ± 6.42 mm on northern Maran hão; b) scale ( σ ), most regions showed positive values, except on southern of Maranhão; an d c) shape ( ξ ), most of the selected regions were adjusted by the Weibull negative distr ibution ( ξ < 0 ). The southern Maranhão and southern Bahia have greater accuracy. The level period, it was estimated that the centern of Bahia may occur at least an extreme precipitatio n event equal to or exceeding over 571.2 mm/day on next 30 years.