57 resultados para inferência bayesiana


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The study aimed to analyze the field of nursing diagnoses safety / protection of NANDA International present in patients in the Intensive Care Unit. This is a crosssectional study in intensive care complex of a university hospital in northeastern Brazil. The research took place in two stages. The first step was to collect data through an interview form and physical examination, with 86 patients admitted to the unit, during the months of December 2013 to May 2014. Spreadsheets were built in Microsoft Office Excel 2010 Software in which were marked by the researcher of this study, the presence or absence of defining characteristics, related factors and risk factors of the 31 studied diagnoses. In the second stage, held between July and August 2014, the sheets were sent to three diagnosticians, previously trained to perform the diagnostic inference. Data were analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics for the diagnoses that showed higher frequencies than 50%, using IBM SPSS version 20.0 for Statistic Windows.O project was approved by the 440/414 and Presentation Certificate for Ethics Assessment number 22955113 .2.0000.5292. The results indicated the presence of 29 field of nursing diagnoses safety / protection in hospital clientele in the Intensive Care Unit, of which five were present in 100% of patients, namely: Risk of contamination, injury risk, falls risk,risk of allergic response and risk of trauma. Diagnoses that presented more frequently than 50% were: Risk of infection, dry eye risk, poisoning risk, vascular trauma risk, impaired skin integrity, impaired dentition, bleeding risk, risk imbalance in body temperature, Risk perioperative positioning injury, impaired tissue integrity, peripheral neurovascular dysfunction Risk, Risk adverse response to contrast media with iodine, shock Hazard and Risk of aspiration. For these analyzes, we identified 35 risk factors, 11 defining characteristics and three related factors showed statistically significant association with the studied diagnoses. For diagnostics: Risk of contamination, injury risk, falls risk, allergic response risk, trauma Risk, Risk of infection, dry eye risk and risk poisoning there was no association with any of their risk factors. We conclude that most of the area of nursing diagnoses safety / protection feature is prevalent in critically ill patients, with special attention to the risk diagnoses. There was a significant association between these diagnoses and its components. It is noteworthy, therefore, that the lifting of this profile contributes relevant clues to the inference of the priority nursing diagnoses domain safety / protection in the study population, supporting the practice of nursing and stimulating knowledge on the subject.

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This dissertation considered the development of two papers, both related to mortality in Brazil. In the first article, "The context of mortality according to the three broad groups of causes of death in Brazilian capitals, 2000 and 2010", the objective was to analyze the mortality rate according to the three major groups of causes of death in Brazilian capitals. In the second article, "Typology and characteristics of mortality from external causes in the municipalities in the Northeast of Brazil, 2000 and 2010", it was built up a typology for the Northeastern municipalities taking into account information on mortality from external causes and a set of indicators related to socioeconomic, demographic, and infrastructure aspects of such municipalities, both articles for the years 2000 and 2010. Thus, we used data from the Mortality Information System of the Ministry of Health. Furthermore, it was used information from the Demographic Census for those years. The variables relating to socioeconomic and demographic conditions used in this study were those available on the home page of the United Nations Program for Development. The variables relating to socioeconomic and demographic conditions used in this study were those available on the home page of the United Nations Program for Development. Was used in Article 1 the pro-rata distribution method to accomplish the redistribution of ill-defined causes. Moreover, made use of the technique of cluster analysis with the aim of grouping the capital that had proportions of deaths from ill-defined causes similar to each other. Already in Section 2, we used the technique of Empirical Bayesian estimation; spatial statistics technique; and finally, the Grade of Membership method to find types of municipalities from information on mortality from external causes associated with socioeconomic, demographic and infrastructure variables. As the main results, it stands out in Article 1, in relation to data quality, we observed the formation of four groups of similar capital between themselves, as the proportion of illdefined causes. Regarding the behavior of mortality, according to the three major groups of causes of death, it was noted both for 2000 and for 2010 the prevalence of deaths from noncommunicable diseases for both sexes, although the reduction was identified rates in some of the capitals. Communicable diseases stood out as the second cause of death among women. Also, we found that deaths due to external causes are responsible for the second cause of death among men, as well as presenting an increase among women. As for the Article 2, stands out, in general, not just an extension of mortality from external causes in the municipalities, as well as an enlargement of the configurator stain existence of external cause deaths for the whole area of Northeast. Regarding the typology of municipalities, three vi extreme profiles were buit: the profile 1, which comprises municipalities with high rates of mortality from external causes and the best social indicators; the profile 2, that was composed of municipalities that are characterized by having low mortality rates from external causes and the lowest social indicators; and the profile 3, that brings together municipalities with intermediate mortality rates and median values considered in relation to social indicators. Although we have not seen changes in the characteristics of the profiles, we observed an increase in the proportion of municipalities that belong to the extreme profile 3, taking into account the mixed profiles.

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With the development and improvement of techniques for molecular studies and their subsequent application to the systematic, significant changes occurred in the classification of gasteroid fungi. The genus Morganella belongs to the family Lycoperdaceae, and is characterized mainly by lignicolous habit and presence of paracapilicium. Recent data demonstrate the discovery of new species for the group and the existence of a wide variety of species occurring in tropical ecosystems. However, the phylogenetic relationships of the genus, as well as the taxonomic classification, still require revisions to be better understood, the literature studies that address this issue are still very scarce. Thus, the objective of this study was to conduct studies of molecular phylogeny with species of the genus Morganella, to enhance understanding of the phylogeny of the group by including tropical species data. For this, the specimens used both for DNA extractions as for morphological review were obtained from Brazilian and foreign herbaria. For morphological analysis were observed characters relevant to the group's taxonomy. For phylogenetic analysis the Maximum Parsimony and Bayesian Analyzes were used, using the internal transcribed spacer (ITS) of nuclear ribosomal DNA. In phylogenetic analyzes, representatives from Morganella form a monophyletic clade with good support value and based on these results the genus should not be included as subgenus of Lycoperdon. The analysis indicated that M. pyriformis was not grouped with other representatives of Morganella, and therefore should not be included in the group as representative of Apioperdon subgenus because it is a Lycoperdon representative. Moreover, M. fuliginea, M. nuda, M. albostipitata, M. velutina, M. subincarnata are grouped with high support values within the genus Morganella. Morganella arenicola based on morphological and molecular studies does not aggregate in Morganella. Morganella nuda was grouped with M. fuliginea giving indications that can be treated as an intraspecific variation. The results of the analyzes favor to a better understanding of the species of Morganella. However, additional studies using a greater number of species, as well as other molecular markers are needed for a better understanding of the phylogenetic of Morganella.

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The great interest in nonlinear system identification is mainly due to the fact that a large amount of real systems are complex and need to have their nonlinearities considered so that their models can be successfully used in applications of control, prediction, inference, among others. This work evaluates the application of Fuzzy Wavelet Neural Networks (FWNN) to identify nonlinear dynamical systems subjected to noise and outliers. Generally, these elements cause negative effects on the identification procedure, resulting in erroneous interpretations regarding the dynamical behavior of the system. The FWNN combines in a single structure the ability to deal with uncertainties of fuzzy logic, the multiresolution characteristics of wavelet theory and learning and generalization abilities of the artificial neural networks. Usually, the learning procedure of these neural networks is realized by a gradient based method, which uses the mean squared error as its cost function. This work proposes the replacement of this traditional function by an Information Theoretic Learning similarity measure, called correntropy. With the use of this similarity measure, higher order statistics can be considered during the FWNN training process. For this reason, this measure is more suitable for non-Gaussian error distributions and makes the training less sensitive to the presence of outliers. In order to evaluate this replacement, FWNN models are obtained in two identification case studies: a real nonlinear system, consisting of a multisection tank, and a simulated system based on a model of the human knee joint. The results demonstrate that the application of correntropy as the error backpropagation algorithm cost function makes the identification procedure using FWNN models more robust to outliers. However, this is only achieved if the gaussian kernel width of correntropy is properly adjusted.

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The study aims to analyze the content and measures of accuracy of the nursing diagnosis Ineffective Self Health in patients undergoing hemodialysis. Study of nursing diagnosis validation carried out in two stages, namely: content analysis by judges and accuracy of clinical indicators. In the first stage, 22 judges evaluated the setting and location of the diagnosis, clinical indicators and etiological factors and their conceptual and empirical definitions. We used the binomial test to determine the proportion of the judges of the relevance of the components of the nursing diagnosis. In the second stage, we used the Latent Class Analysis for the diagnostic accuracy by evaluating 200 patients in a hemodialysis clinic in northeastern Brazil. Research approved by the Ethics Committee, under the Opinion No 387 837 and CAAE 18486413.0.0000.5537. The results show that the judges evaluated as pertinent clinical indicators 12 and 22 etiological factors. Proposed amendment of the nomenclature of five indicators and six factors and the implementation of a clinical indicator for etiology and three etiological factors for clinical indicators. In conceptual and empirical definitions, judges judged as not relevant the conceptual and empirical definitions of a clinical indicator, the conceptual definitions of two etiological factors and empirical definitions four etiological factors. Still, changes were suggested in the conceptual and empirical definitions of two clinical indicators, the conceptual definitions of 12 etiological factors and empirical definitions of 11 etiological factors. Clinical indicators analyzed in the first stage were validated clinically in patients undergoing hemodialysis. The most frequent clinical indicators were Changes in laboratory tests (100%) and daily life choices ineffective to achieve health goals (81%); and three etiological factors had a higher frequency, they are: unfavorable demographic factors (94.5%), beliefs (79%) and comorbidities (77.5%). From Latent class analysis, diagnosis prevalence was estimated at 66.28%. Clinical indicators that showed the best sensitivity measures for the nursing diagnosis Ineffective Self Health were: daily life choices ineffective to achieve health goals and Expression of difficulty with prescribed regimens. In turn, the clinical indicators of inappropriate medication use, no expression of desire to control the disease, irregular attendance to the dialysis sessions and infection were more specific as to that diagnosis. Non-adherence to treatment was the only indicator that showed confidence intervals with values for sensitivity and specificity, statistically above 0.5, being the one who has better diagnostic accuracy as the inference of the nursing diagnosis Ineffective Self Health in hemodialysis clientele. Thus, it is believed that the improvement of the components of diagnosis in question will contribute to the development of more reliable nursing interventions to the health status of the individual in hemodialysis, providing a more scientifically qualified care.

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The study aims to analyze the content and measures of accuracy of the nursing diagnosis Ineffective Self Health in patients undergoing hemodialysis. Study of nursing diagnosis validation carried out in two stages, namely: content analysis by judges and accuracy of clinical indicators. In the first stage, 22 judges evaluated the setting and location of the diagnosis, clinical indicators and etiological factors and their conceptual and empirical definitions. We used the binomial test to determine the proportion of the judges of the relevance of the components of the nursing diagnosis. In the second stage, we used the Latent Class Analysis for the diagnostic accuracy by evaluating 200 patients in a hemodialysis clinic in northeastern Brazil. Research approved by the Ethics Committee, under the Opinion No 387 837 and CAAE 18486413.0.0000.5537. The results show that the judges evaluated as pertinent clinical indicators 12 and 22 etiological factors. Proposed amendment of the nomenclature of five indicators and six factors and the implementation of a clinical indicator for etiology and three etiological factors for clinical indicators. In conceptual and empirical definitions, judges judged as not relevant the conceptual and empirical definitions of a clinical indicator, the conceptual definitions of two etiological factors and empirical definitions four etiological factors. Still, changes were suggested in the conceptual and empirical definitions of two clinical indicators, the conceptual definitions of 12 etiological factors and empirical definitions of 11 etiological factors. Clinical indicators analyzed in the first stage were validated clinically in patients undergoing hemodialysis. The most frequent clinical indicators were Changes in laboratory tests (100%) and daily life choices ineffective to achieve health goals (81%); and three etiological factors had a higher frequency, they are: unfavorable demographic factors (94.5%), beliefs (79%) and comorbidities (77.5%). From Latent class analysis, diagnosis prevalence was estimated at 66.28%. Clinical indicators that showed the best sensitivity measures for the nursing diagnosis Ineffective Self Health were: daily life choices ineffective to achieve health goals and Expression of difficulty with prescribed regimens. In turn, the clinical indicators of inappropriate medication use, no expression of desire to control the disease, irregular attendance to the dialysis sessions and infection were more specific as to that diagnosis. Non-adherence to treatment was the only indicator that showed confidence intervals with values for sensitivity and specificity, statistically above 0.5, being the one who has better diagnostic accuracy as the inference of the nursing diagnosis Ineffective Self Health in hemodialysis clientele. Thus, it is believed that the improvement of the components of diagnosis in question will contribute to the development of more reliable nursing interventions to the health status of the individual in hemodialysis, providing a more scientifically qualified care.

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The new management models have led to the reorganization of institutions today. Much is made in improving the delivery of public services entities, and they have sought to adopt these new initiatives in order to improve the quality of the product or service offered to users. The modernization of the management model at the Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte (UFRN) strengthened by the accession of the institution to GesPública Program, which focuses on the management modernization leading institutions to seek ways to fit to meet the demands proposed the Program. Therefore, the Department of Personnel Administration (DAP) has structured its processes and procedures using the mapping tool processes. This research starts from the question: what were the results obtained with the implementation of the management and process mapping of PAD? It is proposed as a general objective to analyze the management and the mapping of that Board processes, identifying the possible benefits in improving the quality of the services provided to users. The specific objectives to achieve results, are pointed out: describe how you carried out the implementation of the management and process mapping in DAP and how it is working at the moment; examine the line in the relationship between the actions developed by the DAP and modern theories of this theme; identify the evolution of the sector with the measures adopted and the results obtained with the implementation of the mapping tool. In the theoretical framework, it was approached a brief history of the evolution of public administration in Brazil, GesPública program and its importance for process management in public institutions as well as the Management and Process Mapping. The context of the study was the DAP, and participants were managers of the institution in the survey. Data collection was done through the study of the institution's documents, bibliography analysis available on the topic, questionnaires and semi-structured interviews with professionals of the institution involved with the object of study, since its inception until July 2015, when it was finished the search. As a result, were listed: the motivation, importance, benefits and innovations that management and the mapping of processes brought to the institution, point out what has been improved in the service users and the tools used. We also analyze the main problems identified during the implementation of the mapping. As a suggestion, it was analyzed how these procedures can, if possible, be extended to other sectors of UFRN.

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The new management models have led to the reorganization of institutions today. Much is made in improving the delivery of public services entities, and they have sought to adopt these new initiatives in order to improve the quality of the product or service offered to users. The modernization of the management model at the Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte (UFRN) strengthened by the accession of the institution to GesPública Program, which focuses on the management modernization leading institutions to seek ways to fit to meet the demands proposed the Program. Therefore, the Department of Personnel Administration (DAP) has structured its processes and procedures using the mapping tool processes. This research starts from the question: what were the results obtained with the implementation of the management and process mapping of PAD? It is proposed as a general objective to analyze the management and the mapping of that Board processes, identifying the possible benefits in improving the quality of the services provided to users. The specific objectives to achieve results, are pointed out: describe how you carried out the implementation of the management and process mapping in DAP and how it is working at the moment; examine the line in the relationship between the actions developed by the DAP and modern theories of this theme; identify the evolution of the sector with the measures adopted and the results obtained with the implementation of the mapping tool. In the theoretical framework, it was approached a brief history of the evolution of public administration in Brazil, GesPública program and its importance for process management in public institutions as well as the Management and Process Mapping. The context of the study was the DAP, and participants were managers of the institution in the survey. Data collection was done through the study of the institution's documents, bibliography analysis available on the topic, questionnaires and semi-structured interviews with professionals of the institution involved with the object of study, since its inception until July 2015, when it was finished the search. As a result, were listed: the motivation, importance, benefits and innovations that management and the mapping of processes brought to the institution, point out what has been improved in the service users and the tools used. We also analyze the main problems identified during the implementation of the mapping. As a suggestion, it was analyzed how these procedures can, if possible, be extended to other sectors of UFRN.

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A significant observational effort has been directed to investigate the nature of the so-called dark energy. In this dissertation we derive constraints on dark energy models using three different observable: measurements of the Hubble rate H(z) (compiled by Meng et al. in 2015.); distance modulus of 580 Supernovae Type Ia (Union catalog Compilation 2.1, 2011); and the observations of baryon acoustic oscilations (BAO) and the cosmic microwave background (CMB) by using the so-called CMB/BAO of six peaks of BAO (a peak determined through the Survey 6dFGS data, two through the SDSS and three through WiggleZ). The statistical analysis used was the method of the χ2 minimum (marginalized or minimized over h whenever possible) to link the cosmological parameter: m, ω and δω0. These tests were applied in two parameterization of the parameter ω of the equation of state of dark energy, p = ωρ (here, p is the pressure and ρ is the component of energy density). In one, ω is considered constant and less than -1/3, known as XCDM model; in the other the parameter of state equantion varies with the redshift, where we the call model GS. This last model is based on arguments that arise from the theory of cosmological inflation. For comparison it was also made the analysis of model CDM. Comparison of cosmological models with different observations lead to different optimal settings. Thus, to classify the observational viability of different theoretical models we use two criteria information, the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and the Akaike information criteria (AIC). The Fisher matrix tool was incorporated into our testing to provide us with the uncertainty of the parameters of each theoretical model. We found that the complementarity of tests is necessary inorder we do not have degenerate parametric spaces. Making the minimization process we found (68%), for the Model XCDM the best fit parameters are m = 0.28 ± 0, 012 and ωX = −1.01 ± 0, 052. While for Model GS the best settings are m = 0.28 ± 0, 011 and δω0 = 0.00 ± 0, 059. Performing a marginalization we found (68%), for the Model XCDM the best fit parameters are m = 0.28 ± 0, 012 and ωX = −1.01 ± 0, 052. While for Model GS the best settings are M = 0.28 ± 0, 011 and δω0 = 0.00 ± 0, 059.

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A significant observational effort has been directed to investigate the nature of the so-called dark energy. In this dissertation we derive constraints on dark energy models using three different observable: measurements of the Hubble rate H(z) (compiled by Meng et al. in 2015.); distance modulus of 580 Supernovae Type Ia (Union catalog Compilation 2.1, 2011); and the observations of baryon acoustic oscilations (BAO) and the cosmic microwave background (CMB) by using the so-called CMB/BAO of six peaks of BAO (a peak determined through the Survey 6dFGS data, two through the SDSS and three through WiggleZ). The statistical analysis used was the method of the χ2 minimum (marginalized or minimized over h whenever possible) to link the cosmological parameter: m, ω and δω0. These tests were applied in two parameterization of the parameter ω of the equation of state of dark energy, p = ωρ (here, p is the pressure and ρ is the component of energy density). In one, ω is considered constant and less than -1/3, known as XCDM model; in the other the parameter of state equantion varies with the redshift, where we the call model GS. This last model is based on arguments that arise from the theory of cosmological inflation. For comparison it was also made the analysis of model CDM. Comparison of cosmological models with different observations lead to different optimal settings. Thus, to classify the observational viability of different theoretical models we use two criteria information, the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and the Akaike information criteria (AIC). The Fisher matrix tool was incorporated into our testing to provide us with the uncertainty of the parameters of each theoretical model. We found that the complementarity of tests is necessary inorder we do not have degenerate parametric spaces. Making the minimization process we found (68%), for the Model XCDM the best fit parameters are m = 0.28 ± 0, 012 and ωX = −1.01 ± 0, 052. While for Model GS the best settings are m = 0.28 ± 0, 011 and δω0 = 0.00 ± 0, 059. Performing a marginalization we found (68%), for the Model XCDM the best fit parameters are m = 0.28 ± 0, 012 and ωX = −1.01 ± 0, 052. While for Model GS the best settings are M = 0.28 ± 0, 011 and δω0 = 0.00 ± 0, 059.

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In the early 1990s, a major milestone in the treatment of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome was the development of highly active combination antiretroviral therapy. The great benefit generated by the use of this therapy was prolonging the survival of the people who got this disease, since it is no longer considered fatal, becoming a chronic condition. Despite improvements generated by this therapy, there are still many difficulties to be overcome. One is the patient adherence to their treatment, bringing challenges to services and health professionals. Hence the need for early identification of nursing diagnosis Lack of Accession so that solutions are sought by the nurse with the patient and his family. With this problem, adds to the difficulty of hospital nurses in inferring that diagnosis, especially in identifying their defining characteristics. In this context, the objective was to evaluate the accuracy of clinical indicators of nursing diagnosis Lack of Adherence to antiretroviral treatment for people living with the Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome. The research took place in two stages. The first consists of the evaluation of the diagnostic indicators in the study; and second, the diagnostic inference performed by specialist nurses. The first step took place in a referral hospital in the treatment of infectious diseases in the Northeast of Brazil, and data were collected through an instrument for carrying out history and physical examination and analyzed for the presence or absence of the diagnostic indicators. In the second stage, the data were sent to experts, who judged the presence or absence of the diagnosis in the studied clientele. The project was submitted to the Ethics Committee of the Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte, obtaining approval with the General Certificate for Ethics Assessment (CAAE) No 46206215.3.0000.5537. Data were analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics. Test were used Fisher's exact, chi-square test of Pearson and logistic regression. Since the accuracy of clinical indicators was measured by sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, likelihood ratios. As a result, we identified the presence of diagnosis Lack of Accession on 69% (n = 78) of the study patients. The defining characteristics that showed statistically significant association with the diagnosis studied were: lack of adherence behavior, complications related to development, missing scheduled appointments, failure to achieve results, and exacerbation of symptoms. The characteristic with greater sensitivity was missing scheduled appointments and the highest specificity behavior of noncompliance. The logistic regression showed as predictors for the diagnosis Lack of Accession: lack of adherence behavior, missing scheduled appointments, failure to achieve results, and exacerbation of symptoms. It was concluded that the identification of clinical indicators accurately enabled a good prediction of the nursing diagnosis Lack of Accession on people living with the Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome, helping nurses develop early on strategies for promoting adherence to the use of antiretrovirals.

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In the early 1990s, a major milestone in the treatment of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome was the development of highly active combination antiretroviral therapy. The great benefit generated by the use of this therapy was prolonging the survival of the people who got this disease, since it is no longer considered fatal, becoming a chronic condition. Despite improvements generated by this therapy, there are still many difficulties to be overcome. One is the patient adherence to their treatment, bringing challenges to services and health professionals. Hence the need for early identification of nursing diagnosis Lack of Accession so that solutions are sought by the nurse with the patient and his family. With this problem, adds to the difficulty of hospital nurses in inferring that diagnosis, especially in identifying their defining characteristics. In this context, the objective was to evaluate the accuracy of clinical indicators of nursing diagnosis Lack of Adherence to antiretroviral treatment for people living with the Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome. The research took place in two stages. The first consists of the evaluation of the diagnostic indicators in the study; and second, the diagnostic inference performed by specialist nurses. The first step took place in a referral hospital in the treatment of infectious diseases in the Northeast of Brazil, and data were collected through an instrument for carrying out history and physical examination and analyzed for the presence or absence of the diagnostic indicators. In the second stage, the data were sent to experts, who judged the presence or absence of the diagnosis in the studied clientele. The project was submitted to the Ethics Committee of the Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte, obtaining approval with the General Certificate for Ethics Assessment (CAAE) No 46206215.3.0000.5537. Data were analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics. Test were used Fisher's exact, chi-square test of Pearson and logistic regression. Since the accuracy of clinical indicators was measured by sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, likelihood ratios. As a result, we identified the presence of diagnosis Lack of Accession on 69% (n = 78) of the study patients. The defining characteristics that showed statistically significant association with the diagnosis studied were: lack of adherence behavior, complications related to development, missing scheduled appointments, failure to achieve results, and exacerbation of symptoms. The characteristic with greater sensitivity was missing scheduled appointments and the highest specificity behavior of noncompliance. The logistic regression showed as predictors for the diagnosis Lack of Accession: lack of adherence behavior, missing scheduled appointments, failure to achieve results, and exacerbation of symptoms. It was concluded that the identification of clinical indicators accurately enabled a good prediction of the nursing diagnosis Lack of Accession on people living with the Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome, helping nurses develop early on strategies for promoting adherence to the use of antiretrovirals.