56 resultados para Previsão do tempo


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In 1956, Luís da Câmara Cascudo published his book Geografia do Brasil Holandês. In this book, he studied and described a space - the Dutch Brazil - from a geographical and historical perspective. To do this, he articulated both perspectives from the point of view of his own reading of the History of Nordeste , establishing a dialogue with the historiographical tradition of the study of the Dutch Brazil in Pernambuco. When portraying the Dutch presence in Nordeste, Cascudo articulated a drama in which the Dutch would have their history described as a typically tragic plot, portrayed as if they were already condemned to failure in advance. To this tragedy he opposed a predominantly comic Portuguese plot, as if the Portuguese victory over the Dutch was as desirable as inevitable for the space of Nordeste . When narrating the clash between the Dutch and the Portuguese for the space of Nordeste , however, Cascudo ended up delineating his own place of speech, as a spokesperson for the identity of the potiguar space in opposition to the pernabucano space described by Freyre and Gonsalves de Mello. In this way, the space of Rio Grande do Norte would have its own identity, constructed from de Dutch absence and constituted from the Portuguese legacy contrarily to the space of Pernambuco, narrated from an articulation and a conciliation of the Flemish and Lusitan legacy, even though highlighting the latter. While the Dutch would had been a constant presence in the history of Pernambuco for Freyre and Gonsalves de Mello, they wouldn t have gone beyond legend in the space of Rio Grande do Norte, removed from its geography and erased from its history. When describing de geography of the potiguar space, therefore, Cascudo articulates the inexistence of the History of a time dominated by the Fleming with the search of a Portuguese space, trough the narration of its origins and constitution, as well as the registry of the characteristics of its legacy

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We presented in this work two methods of estimation for accelerated failure time models with random e_ects to process grouped survival data. The _rst method, which is implemented in software SAS, by NLMIXED procedure, uses an adapted Gauss-Hermite quadrature to determine marginalized likelihood. The second method, implemented in the free software R, is based on the method of penalized likelihood to estimate the parameters of the model. In the _rst case we describe the main theoretical aspects and, in the second, we briey presented the approach adopted with a simulation study to investigate the performance of the method. We realized implement the models using actual data on the time of operation of oil wells from the Potiguar Basin (RN / CE).

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We present residual analysis techniques to assess the fit of correlated survival data by Accelerated Failure Time Models (AFTM) with random effects. We propose an imputation procedure for censored observations and consider three types of residuals to evaluate different model characteristics. We illustrate the proposal with the analysis of AFTM with random effects to a real data set involving times between failures of oil well equipment

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This research examines the street children s identity construction processes. Recently, the research about this population has focused on the socialization processes that organize their everyday, their situations of interaction, the meanings of their social practices, their street experience. The concept of identitary forms gives coherence to the set of these phenomena, articulating them theoretically, in order to describe their life conditions and details of their trajectories. This research utilized an ethnographic approach with a group of 11 street people, 9 of them boys and girls 16-18 years old, during 3 months. It included participant observation, informal and formal interviews, that resulted in young s narratives of lifestory. These narratives were interpreted according to the principles of positioning analysis and the Labovian Analysis model of oral narratives of personal experience. The observation of interaction among the studied group and other groups has showed that their social practices, supported on many particular bodily technologies, recreate space and time of these interactions semantically, as mediation of meaning negotiations among groups. Such meanings transform again the environment of these interactions, disclosing interpretative systems by means of which the groups apprehend this interaction in a particular way. These street children s bodily technologies imply identitary forms based on scarcity and abandonment, paradoxicalally related to their self-concept. The analysis of narratives revealed diversity and complexity in the meanings assembly for their street experience; it showed that the semantic arrangements reconstruct the temporal experience, creating a moral climate for each lifestory, and determining more or less aperture of identitary forms to change. The study concludes that space and time, builders of interaction regimes, produce identitary forms; that the narratives and the social practices of the studied group are sustained upon a master discourse that opposes the meanings of the home and the life in the streets

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In this work calibration models were constructed to determine the content of total lipids and moisture in powdered milk samples. For this, used the near-infrared spectroscopy by diffuse reflectance, combined with multivariate calibration. Initially, the spectral data were submitted to correction of multiplicative light scattering (MSC) and Savitzsky-Golay smoothing. Then, the samples were divided into subgroups by application of hierarchical clustering analysis of the classes (HCA) and Ward Linkage criterion. Thus, it became possible to build regression models by partial least squares (PLS) that allowed the calibration and prediction of the content total lipid and moisture, based on the values obtained by the reference methods of Soxhlet and 105 ° C, respectively . Therefore, conclude that the NIR had a good performance for the quantification of samples of powdered milk, mainly by minimizing the analysis time, not destruction of the samples and not waste. Prediction models for determination of total lipids correlated (R) of 0.9955, RMSEP of 0.8952, therefore the average error between the Soxhlet and NIR was ± 0.70%, while the model prediction to content moisture correlated (R) of 0.9184, RMSEP, 0.3778 and error of ± 0.76%

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Most cochlear implant (CI) users, who suffer from post lingual hearing loss, are able to perceive sounds and comprehend speech after the implant. The prediction of maximal benefit over time, with the use of CI, can be useful for counseling patients about their expectations in using the new device. The measurement of satisfaction should be of primary interest in medical intervention, as the results may be used for intervention feedback. The purpose of this study is to analyze auditory performance of CI over time, as well as to evaluate users‟ satisfaction. Therefore two types of study designs were employed: a) retrospective cohort study with the analysis of medical records from 59 subjects about auditory performance before and after surgery. Results were submitted to the Kaplan -Meier estimator of cumulative probability and compared to prognostic factors of auditory performance using the logrank test. b) A sectional study design was conducted to evaluate the satisfaction of 51 subjects. The instrument consists of two specific questionnaires: Satisfaction with Amplification in Daily Life SADL and International Outcome Inventory Cochlear Implant IOI- CI. Results show statistical significant differences (p<0,001) in auditory performance before and after CI. The majority obtained satisfactory results of CI use during the first six months. Logrank tests does not indicate significant correlation between the analyzed covariates and the time in which adequate speech perception occurs. SADL e IOI-CI questionnaires indicate that most of the CI users are satisfied with their devices. The SADL detected a 27, 5% insatisfaction amongst CI users in relation to services and costs involved with the CI. The results of the IOI show 4% of insatisfaction with the use of CI and the social environment. In conclusion CI is capable to rehabilitate social auditory function in a short period of time and CI users demonstrate satisfaction with auditory, social and psychological gain offered through CI device

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With the technology progess, embedded systems using adaptive techniques are being used frequently. One of these techniques is the Variable Structure Model- Reference Adaptive Control (VS-MRAC). The implementation of this technique in embedded systems, requires consideration of a sampling period which if not taken into consideration, can adversely affect system performance and even takes the system to instability. This work proposes a stability analysis of a discrete-time VS-MRAC accomplished for SISO linear time-invariant plants with relative degree one. The aim is to analyse the in uence of the sampling period in the system performance and the relation of this period with the chattering and system instability

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We considered prediction techniques based on models of accelerated failure time with random e ects for correlated survival data. Besides the bayesian approach through empirical Bayes estimator, we also discussed about the use of a classical predictor, the Empirical Best Linear Unbiased Predictor (EBLUP). In order to illustrate the use of these predictors, we considered applications on a real data set coming from the oil industry. More speci - cally, the data set involves the mean time between failure of petroleum-well equipments of the Bacia Potiguar. The goal of this study is to predict the risk/probability of failure in order to help a preventive maintenance program. The results show that both methods are suitable to predict future failures, providing good decisions in relation to employment and economy of resources for preventive maintenance.

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In this work we study the accelerated failure-time generalized Gamma regression models with a unified approach. The models attempt to estimate simultaneously the effects of covariates on the acceleration/deceleration of the timing of a given event and the surviving fraction. The method is implemented in the free statistical software R. Finally the model is applied to a real dataset referring to the time until the return of the disease in patients diagnosed with breast cancer

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Web services are loosely coupled applications that use XML documents as a way of integrating distinct systems on the internet. Such documents are used by in standards such as SOAP, WSDL and UDDI which establish, respectively, integrated patterns for the representation of messages, description, and publication of services, thus facilitating the interoperability between heterogeneous systems. Often one single service does not meet the users needs, therefore new systems can be designed from the composition of two or more services. This which is the design goal behind the of the Service Oriented Architecture. Parallel to this scenario, we have the PEWS (Predicate Path-Expressions for Web Services) language, which speci es behavioural speci cations of composite web service interfaces.. The development of the PEWS language is divided into two parts: front-end and back-end. From a PEWS program, the front-end performs the lexical analysis, syntactic and semantic compositions and nally generate XML code. The function of the back-end is to execute the composition PEWS. This master's dissertation work aims to: (i) reformulate the proposed architecture for the runtime system of the language, (ii) Implement the back-end for PEWS by using .NET Framework tools to execute PEWS programs using the Windows Work ow Foundation

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A cidade de Natal/RN apresenta-se como palco para múltiplas manifestações culturais, entre as quais se encontram as tribos de índios carnavalescas. O presente estudo procurará compreender a produção do carnaval destas agremiações enquanto uma manifestação de lazer e trabalho. Pautado numa visão pluralista, percebemos que os vários usos do espaço implicam em territorialidades que envolvem as dimensões política, econômica e simbólica, intermediadas pela cultura. Sob a análise proposta, pretendemos desvendar as dinâmicas espaciais e os vários agentes sociais que engendram relações de poder, trabalho e sociabilidades, mostrando neste mundo carnavalesco seus aspectos culturais e suas práticas sociais, guardando, em seu cerne, o caráter popular e ordinário do cotidiano. A pesquisa mostra que, para além da racionalidade hegemônica, existem outras racionalidades, manifestadas em microterritorialidades, que acionam mecanismos e táticas cotidianas, valorizando-se o fenômeno do estar-junto, existentes no interior dos centros urbanos, nos bairros e nas ruas