71 resultados para Combinações de Previsões


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High-precision calculations of the correlation functions and order parameters were performed in order to investigate the critical properties of several two-dimensional ferro- magnetic systems: (i) the q-state Potts model; (ii) the Ashkin-Teller isotropic model; (iii) the spin-1 Ising model. We deduced exact relations connecting specific damages (the difference between two microscopic configurations of a model) and the above mentioned thermodynamic quanti- ties which permit its numerical calculation, by computer simulation and using any ergodic dynamics. The results obtained (critical temperature and exponents) reproduced all the known values, with an agreement up to several significant figures; of particular relevance were the estimates along the Baxter critical line (Ashkin-Teller model) where the exponents have a continuous variation. We also showed that this approach is less sensitive to the finite-size effects than the standard Monte-Carlo method. This analysis shows that the present approach produces equal or more accurate results, as compared to the usual Monte Carlo simulation, and can be useful to investigate these models in circumstances for which their behavior is not yet fully understood

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We use a finite diference eulerian numerical code, called ZEUS 3D, to do simulations involving the collision between two magnetized molecular clouds, aiming to evaluate the rate of star formation triggered by the collision and to analyse how that rate varies depending on the relative orientations between the cloud magnetic fields before the shock. The ZEUS 3D code is not an easy code to handle. We had to create two subroutines, one to study the cloud-cloud collision and the other for the data output. ZEUS is a modular code. Its hierarchical way of working is explained as well as the way our subroutines work. We adopt two sets of different initial values for density, temperature and magnetic field of the clouds and of the external medium in order to study the collision between two molecular clouds. For each set, we analyse in detail six cases with different directions and orientations of the cloud magnetic field relative to direction of motion of the clouds. The analysis of these twelve cases allowed us to conform analytical-theoretical proposals found in the literature, and to obtain several original results. Previous works indicate that, if the cloud magnetic fields before the collision are orthogonal to the direction of motion, then a strong inhibition of star formation will occur during a cloud-cloud shock, whereas if those magnetic fields are parallel to the direction of motion, star formation will be stimulated. Our treatment of the problem confirmed numerically those results, and further allowed us to quantify the relative star forming efficiencies in each case. Moreover, we propose and analyse an intermediate case where the field of one of the clouds is orthogonal to the motion and the field of the other one is parallel to the motion. We conclude that, in this case, the rate at which the star formation occurs has a value also intermediate between the two extreme cases we mentioned above. Besides that we study the case in which the fields are orthogonal to the direction of the motion but, instead of being parallel to each other, they are anti-parallel, and we obtained for this case the corresponding variation of the star formation rate due to this alteration of the field configuration. This last case has not been studied in the literature before. Our study allows us to obtain, from the simulations, the rate of star formation in each case, as well as the temporal dependence of that rate as each collision evolves, what we do in detail for one of the cases in particular. The values we obtain for the rate of star formation are in accordance with those expected from the presently existing observational data

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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico

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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico

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Neste trabalho investigamos aspectos da propagação de danos em sistemas cooperativos, descritos por modelos de variáveis discretas (spins), mutuamente interagentes, distribuídas nos sítios de uma rede regular. Os seguintes casos foram examinados: (i) A influência do tipo de atualização (paralela ou sequencial) das configurações microscópicas, durante o processo de simulação computacional de Monte Carlo, no modelo de Ising em uma rede triangular. Observamos que a atualização sequencial produz uma transição de fase dinâmica (Caótica- Congelada) a uma temperatura TD ≈TC (Temperatura de Curie), para acoplamentos ferromagnéticos (TC=3.6409J/Kb) e antiferromagnéticos (TC=0). A atualização paralela, que neste caso é incapaz de diferenciar os dois tipos de acoplamentos, leva a uma transição em TD ≠TC; (ii) Um estudo do modelo de Ising na rede quadrada, com diluição temperada de sítios, mostrou que a técnica de propagação de danos é um eficiente método para o cálculo da fronteira crítica e da dimensão fractal do aglomerado percolante, já que os resultados obtidos (apesar de um esforço computacional relativamente modesto), são comparáveis àqueles resultantes da aplicação de outros métodos analíticos e/ou computacionais de alto empenho; (iii) Finalmente, apresentamos resultados analíticos que mostram como certas combinações especiais de danos podem ser utilizadas para o cálculo de grandezas termodinâmicas (parâmetros de ordem, funções de correlação e susceptibilidades) do modelo Nα x Nβ, o qual contém como casos particulares alguns dos modelos mais estudados em Mecânica Estatística (Ising, Potts, Ashkin Teller e Cúbico)

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ON reflecting the traditional teaching approach, characterized by non-dynamic and descriptive methods that still persists in schools at the present time, associated to social living enrichment has motivated the search for new techniques to stimulate students in the process of teaching, such as roleplaying games, known as RPG, already being used in various school disciplines. Considering the amount of themes in general sciences and in biology, in particular that could be explored through RPG our purpose was to develop a game to be used as a learning complementary tool. PANGÉIA, the game we developed, was based on the GURPS system and to be placed at the geological Eras of the earth. The objective of the game was playing a character that represented an animal belonging to a Class of Vertebrates, and making it surviving and reproducing during risky situations presented in the game. These situations were narratives by the Master about challenges that the character would face, which should be solved using the dices. Along the narrative, the Master introduced concepts and informations about the subject being studied. To evaluating how the game worked out, we solicited 11 volunteers, from two different schools in Natal, to play PANGÉIA. Before starting the game, and without knowing the final objectives of our project, the volunteers answered a general questionnaire to let us know their level of knowledge, which was also answered after playing the game. The comparison of the volunteers answers before and after playing the game suggests that this activity influenced them. Also, based on this test, we identified critical aspects to be modified in PANGÉIA, specially a stronger relation between both the questionnaire and the game placement with the narrative of the master. In order to have PANGÉIA used as a complementary learning tool, a teachers handbook has to be written, including rules concerning the format of game application. Nonetheless, based on this pilot study, we conclude that topics on sciences and biology can be easily adjusted to RPG format, and its flexibility provides multiple combinations that can be used to help learning the more difficult topics to be taught in a class

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The chores and the daily physical and social demands make us feel more and more the need to be in a familiar and restoring environment, with which we frequently establish emotional bonds. The interaction with places for resting and leisure, exemplified in the Environmental Psychology literature as recreational and home environments, allow us to exercise our potentials and to strengthen our (personal and collective) identity. Bearing this in mind, this dissertation has as aim to study the relation of affection between the place and the inhabitants of the community of Pipa-RN, which has turned from fishermen s village into tourist destination, bringing with it many changes to the local population. To accomplish that, we made use of behavioral observations, interviews, and graphic and photographic documentation with 30 subjects selected through a network of indications, attending to the criterion loving Pipa . After analysis and systematization of the answers, we identified three super-categories: 1) Love, characterized by the strong representation that an environment has upon an individual without, necessarily, there being an affective link, allowing it to be nurtured from a distance and dissociated from the desire to be present; 2) Attachment, demonstrated by the difficulty in leaving the place, a bond that can be mediated by personal financial investments or expectation of future benefits; 3) Affiliation, which refers to the feeling of belonging to the place and its community, sharing its history, culture, habits, etc., independent from the place of birth. These super-categories are not exclusive, on the contrary, they can form combinations which we denominate as situations, that could vary from 01 (individual involved with none of the three) to 07 (individual involved with the three); there wasn t the combination between Attachment and Affiliation. These results showed that within the framework of relations of affection with the place, there are countless possibilities of interaction individual-environment, determined by the physicalenvironmental characteristics and by the assessment that each individual makes of it. With this small contribution to the theme, we hope to enlighten the perspectives for future research, especially involving the relation of affection for places and the adoption of proenvironmental conducts, as a question of preservation of the ecosystems and of the quality of life of the inhabitants

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PAHs (Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons) are a group of organic substances which receive considerable attention because of the carcinogenic and mutagenic properties of some of them. It is therefore important to determine the PAHs in different environmental matrices. Several studies have shown the use of gas chromatography coupled to mass spectrometry as a technique for quantification of PAHs by presenting excellent detection limits. This study aimed to develop an analytical methodology for the determination of 16 PAHs listed by the USEPA, test two methods for extraction of PAHs in water from a 23 factorial design, quantify them through the analytical technique coupled to gas chromatography mass spectrometry (GC/MS) using the method developed, and finally apply the results in chemometrics. The sample was synthesized and subjected to tests of the 23 factorial design, which has the factors: the type of extraction technique (ultrasound and digester), the ratio solvent / sample (1:1 and 1:3) and the type of solvent (dichloromethane / hexane and acetone / dichloromethane). The responses of eight combinations of the factorial design were obtained from the quantification by external calibration in GC/MS. The quantification method was developed from an optimized adaptation of the USEPA Method 8270. We used the full scan mode as a way of acquiring the mass spectra of 16 PAHs. The time in which the samples were subjected to ultrasound was fixed at 10 min and held an investigation to establish the conditions of power and time in the digester. We had the best response in the investigation of the digester power of 100 watts and the time of six minutes. The factorial design of liquid-liquid extraction showed that the most representative factors were: the use of the digester as extraction technique, the ratio solvent / sample 1:1 and the use of a 1:1 mixture of dichloromethane / hexane as a solvent more suitable. These results showed that the 1:1 mixture of dichloromethane / hexane is an excellent mixture to recover the extraction of PAHs an aqueous sample using the microwave digester. The optimization of the method of separation, identification and quantification of PAHs in the GC/MS was valid for 16 PAHs present in each chromatogram of the samples

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In this work, the quantitative analysis of glucose, triglycerides and cholesterol (total and HDL) in both rat and human blood plasma was performed without any kind of pretreatment of samples, by using near infrared spectroscopy (NIR) combined with multivariate methods. For this purpose, different techniques and algorithms used to pre-process data, to select variables and to build multivariate regression models were compared between each other, such as partial least squares regression (PLS), non linear regression by artificial neural networks, interval partial least squares regression (iPLS), genetic algorithm (GA), successive projections algorithm (SPA), amongst others. Related to the determinations of rat blood plasma samples, the variables selection algorithms showed satisfactory results both for the correlation coefficients (R²) and for the values of root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP) for the three analytes, especially for triglycerides and cholesterol-HDL. The RMSEP values for glucose, triglycerides and cholesterol-HDL obtained through the best PLS model were 6.08, 16.07 e 2.03 mg dL-1, respectively. In the other case, for the determinations in human blood plasma, the predictions obtained by the PLS models provided unsatisfactory results with non linear tendency and presence of bias. Then, the ANN regression was applied as an alternative to PLS, considering its ability of modeling data from non linear systems. The root mean square error of monitoring (RMSEM) for glucose, triglycerides and total cholesterol, for the best ANN models, were 13.20, 10.31 e 12.35 mg dL-1, respectively. Statistical tests (F and t) suggest that NIR spectroscopy combined with multivariate regression methods (PLS and ANN) are capable to quantify the analytes (glucose, triglycerides and cholesterol) even when they are present in highly complex biological fluids, such as blood plasma

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This work aims to detect polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) through optimized analytical techniques, such as gas chromatography with flame-ionisation detector (CGFID), gas chromatography coupled to mass spectrometry (CGMS), Fluorescence Spectroscopy of Molecular and Purpot of oils and greases (POG). Apply to chemometrics, Factorial Planning 23, in the preparation of samples by liquid-liquid extraction. The sample preparation was used for liquid-liquid extraction and factors in this sample was used for the application of factorial planning 23, such as the use of ultrasound, solvents (dichloromethane, hexane and chloroform) and ratio of solvent / synthetic sample. These factors were assigned two types of levels: positive and negative. It was used to form the cube to better analyze the answers. The responses of the eight combinations were obtained in reading the spectrofluorimetric. The optimization of equipment were used, and they served in the HPA's identification of the samples collected in Rio Potengi. The optimization of the equipment was observed every 16's and PAH in the samples was found that the HPA's came from contamination of the Rio Potengi. The contamination comes through organic household waste, hospital waste, and among other contamination that comes from industries that are installed around the River The factorial design of high validity, it was observed a more effective sample preparation. The factorial design of liquid-liquid extraction showed a way to spend less solvent in less time using an ideal solvent, but also a way to extract more analyte from the matrix itself is water. In planning a smaller form factor extraction was the use of ultrasound, the ratio 1:3 corresponding to a solvent and sample 3 and the best solvent was dichloromethane who presented a viable extraction, not discarding the possibility of using also the hexane. The chloroform and may be toxic not had a good extraction

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The process for choosing the best components to build systems has become increasingly complex. It becomes more critical if it was need to consider many combinations of components in the context of an architectural configuration. These circumstances occur, mainly, when we have to deal with systems involving critical requirements, such as the timing constraints in distributed multimedia systems, the network bandwidth in mobile applications or even the reliability in real-time systems. This work proposes a process of dynamic selection of architectural configurations based on non-functional requirements criteria of the system, which can be used during a dynamic adaptation. This proposal uses the MAUT theory (Multi-Attribute Utility Theory) for decision making from a finite set of possibilities, which involve multiple criteria to be analyzed. Additionally, it was proposed a metamodel which can be used to describe the application s requirements in terms of the non-functional requirements criteria and their expected values, to express them in order to make the selection of the desired configuration. As a proof of concept, it was implemented a module that performs the dynamic choice of configurations, the MoSAC. This module was implemented using a component-based development approach (CBD), performing a selection of architectural configurations based on the proposed selection process involving multiple criteria. This work also presents a case study where an application was developed in the context of Digital TV to evaluate the time spent on the module to return a valid configuration to be used in a middleware with autoadaptative features, the middleware AdaptTV

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Automation has become increasingly necessary during the software test process due to the high cost and time associated with such activity. Some tools have been proposed to automate the execution of Acceptance Tests in Web applications. However, many of them have important limitations such as the strong dependence on the structure of the HTML pages and the need of manual valuing of the test cases. In this work, we present a language for specifying acceptance test scenarios for Web applications called IFL4TCG and a tool that allows the generation of test cases from these scenarios. The proposed language supports the criterion of Equivalence Classes Partition and the tool allows the generation of test cases that meet different combination strategies (i.e., Each-Choice, Base-Choice and All Combinations). In order to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed solution, we used the language and the associated tool for designing and executing Acceptance Tests on a module of Sistema Unificado de Administração Pública (SUAP) of Instituto Federal Rio Grande do Norte (IFRN). Four Systems Analysts and one Computer Technician, which work as developers of the that system, participated in the evaluation. Preliminary results showed that IFL4TCG can actually help to detect defects in Web applications

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O presente estudo tem como objetivo analisar como os gestores da hotelaria percebem a relação da teoria do caos e turismo, descrever como é pensada e concebida a gestão do turismo; mostrar as características caopléxicas do turismo e sua gestão e identificar os elementos do padrão estratégico de gestão e planejamento na visão dos gestores dos Meios de Hospedagem. Os dados foram obtidos através da observação direta intensiva e aplicação de entrevistas aplicadas junto aos hoteleiros da cidade de Natal/RN. Constata que as teorias da mudança e do caos proporcionam visão do conjunto de relações, aspectos e implicações do turismo, com base nas incertezas e instabilidades ambientais e de mercado. Mostra que a maioria dos modelos de análise, planejamento e gestão do turismo ainda é limitada, em razão do seu caráter linear e unidimensional. Destaca que o objetivo da teoria do caos é fornecer explicações dos fenômenos, não é fazer previsões, pois é impossível prever o futuro a longo prazo. Trata das estratégias de gestão como geradoras de novas fontes de incerteza, pois a realidade não pode ser completamente representada por modelos. Ter consciência desses fatos significa, entretanto, considerar o campo de múltiplas possibilidades e oportunidades da mudança e do caos na gestão do desenvolvimento do turismo. Essas idéias foram aplicadas à análise da gestão do turismo na localidade investigada. Os questionamentos levantados no estudo pautaram-se em pesquisa bibliográfica, fundamentada, principalmente, em autores como Beni, Prahalad, Mintzberg, Ritto, Senge e Hamel. Conclui-se que na era do conhecimento, as organizações que continuam presas ao paradigma mecanicista têm dificuldade de acompanhar as mudanças do mercado e sendo a hotelaria uma indústria de serviços que tem características organizacionais complexas e adaptativas, é imprescindível que os empreendimentos hoteleiros funcionem como sistemas interativos, que acompanhem as mudanças de um mercado tão turbulento e instável tendo na teoria do caos e da complexidade uma das possibilidades de compreender a realidade fora do modelo mecanicista.

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The knowledge known as "winter experiences" has been developed for centuries among country people in the Brazilian Northeast hinterlands. It consists in the systematic observation of the nature to forecast and protect people against the effects of droughts. This knowledge is transmitted orally through generations. These experiences are guided by the observation of the behavior of fauna, flora, stars, the weather in the holy days and other very specific aspects of the lives of country people. Almost all country people living in the rural area know at least one experience, but the Prophets of Rain are known as the communicators of winter prophecies formulated from the observation of the experiences. The country person is identified as a Prophet of Rain because of his close relationship with nature and his ability to forecast. No matter if the prophecies are always right, he possesses a vital social role, as his practices contribute to prevent, ease and encourage other people. The main aim of this work is to analyze the role of the winter experiences for the country people in the Seridó Potiguar. In this sense, we sought to understand to what extent this knowledge still orients the productive practices of farmers living in this region and identify which factors instigate the observation of winter experiences nowadays. 241 questionnaires were applied to farmers in the rural cities of Acari, Caicó, Parelhas and Lagoa Nova and interviews were conducted with 15 Prophets in the Seridó. The methodological framework of this work is the analysis of content proposed by Bardin (2010). In this study area, the experiences exert influence and relevance to the country people in the Seridó, because they consider them as a way to ease their anguishes face the possible drought in the region. The major role of the Prophet is to feed the hope of country people for better days, rather than contribute for the organization of the productive activities. Among the interviewed people, the forecast from the observation of winter experiences have greater credibility than the meteorological and disseminated by media. The Prophets of Rain base their prophecies on the set of natural elements present in the environment. Many factors stimulate the winter experiences by the Prophets nowadays, as cultural transmission, age, relationship with nature, level of education, faith, among others, but specially the productive activities (agriculture and cattle raising) and the droughts. The winter means abundance and happiness in this region and the experience is one of the ways that people find to minimize the anxiety and, according to their possibilities, to prepare for a year of droughts or for winter

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Considerando o caráter multifacetado e socialmente heterogêneo da epidemia do HIV/AIDS, gostaria de refletir sobre as formas pragmáticas de apropriação, negociação e conflito de gênero em termos das disposições possíveis de masculinidade e feminilidade ou, ainda, suas amplas combinações entre homens e mulheres de diferentes identidades sexuais e diversos status sorológicos. Os contextos a serem explorados e descritos são aqueles particulares ao mundo social da AIDS, incluindo tanto o cotidiano de uma ONG AIDS específica, bem como os que se apresentam em situações tanto públicas como privadas na cidade do Rio de Janeiro. Pretendo discutir como novas subjetividades podem se constituir a partir dos usos de categorias sexuais e sorológicas, valores morais e de expressões performativas de gênero.