106 resultados para modelagem probabilística


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A numerical study on the behavior of tied-back retaining walls in sand, using the finite element method (FEM) is presented. The analyses were performed using the software Plaxis 2D, and were focused on the development of horizontal displacements, horizontal stresses, shear forces and bending moments in the structure during the construction process. Emphasis was placed on the evaluation of wall embedment, tie-back horizontal spacing, wall thickness, and free anchor length on wall behavior. A representative soil profile of a specific region at the City of Natal, Brazil, was used in the numerical analyses. New facilities built on this region often include retaining structures of the same type studied herein. Soil behavior was modeled using the Mohr-Coulomb constitutive model, whereas the structural elements were modeled using the linear elastic model. Shear strength parameters of the soil layers were obtained from direct shear test results conducted with samples collected at the studied site. Deformation parameters were obtained from empirical correlations from SPT test results carried out on the studied site. The results of the numerical analyses revealed that the effect of wall embedment on the investigated parameters is virtually negligible. Conversely, the tie-back horizontal spacing plays an important role on the investigated parameters. The results also demonstrated that the wall thickness significantly affects the wall horizontal displacements, and the shear forces and bending moments within the retaining structure. However, wall thickness was not found to influence horizontal stresses in the structure

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The objective of this dissertation is to propose a Multi Criteria Decision Aid Model to be used by the costumers of the travel agencies and help them to choose the best package travel. The main objective is to contribute for the simplification of the travel package decision choice from the identification of the models of values and preference of the customers and applying them to the existing package. It is used the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method to structuralize a decision hierarchic model composed by six criteria (package cost, hotel category, security of the city, travel time, direct flight and position in ranking of the 10 most visited destination) and five real alternatives of packages for a holiday of three days created from travel agency data. The decision analysis was realized for the choice of a travel package by a group composed by two couples that regularly travels together, to which was asked to do a pairwise judgment of the criteria and the alternatives. The mains results show that, although been a group that travels together, there are different models of values in the weights of the criteria and a certain convergence in the scales of preferences of the alternatives in the criteria. It was not pointed a dominant alternative for all the members of the group separately, but an analysis of a total utility of the group shows a classification and an order of the travel packages and an alternative clearly in front of the others. The sensitivity analysis revels that there are changes in the ranking, but the two alternatives best classified in the normal analysis are the same ones in the sensitivity analysis, although with the positions changed. The analysis also led to a simplification of the process with the exclusion of alternatives dominated for the others ones. As main conclusion, it is evaluated that the model and method suggested allow a simplification of the decision process in the choice of travel packages

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The main goal of this dissertation is to develop a Multi Criteria Decision Aid Model to be used in Oils and Gas perforation rigs contracts choices. The developed model should permit the utilization of multiples criterions, covering problems that exist with models that mainly use the price of the contracts as its decision criterion. The AHP has been chosen because its large utilization, not only academic, but in many other areas, its simplicity of use and flexibility, and also fill all the requirements necessary to complete the task. The development of the model was conducted by interviews and surveys with one specialist in this specific area, who also acts as the main actor on the decision process. The final model consists in six criterions: Costs, mobility, automation, technical support, how fast the service could be concluded and availability to start the operations. Three rigs were chosen as possible solutions for the problem. The results reached by the utilizations of the model suggests that the utilization of AHP as a decision support system in this kind of situation is possible, allowing a simplifications of the problem, and also it s a useful tool to improve every one involved on the process s knowledge about the problem subject, and its possible solutions

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The commitment assumed by Brazil to ILO in order to pursue actions toward the ILO/OSH-2001 adoption in the country poses the issue of modeling the institutional arrangement the set roles and relationship between government, standards organizations, health and safety organizations, professionals and other institutions to deploy the ILO/OSH-2001. This Thesis develop institutional arrangement models based on the current model and also in the ISO 9000 scheme and others. It is studied the US case with OSHA and VPP, the OHSAS 18001 and ANSI/AIHA Z-10, in addition to actual context of the regulating norms NR s. The scenarios developed are put to evaluation on feasibility, potential changes and effects on current MTE auditors work scheme. The main results are five scenarios developed and that the MTE auditors tend to be reactive to the change toward the ILO/OSH-2001.

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The bobbin lace, a secular art in the process of extinction in the Village Ponta Negra in Natal, Brazil, was one of the main means of income generation for some families in town, but over time, there was growing disaffection of the younger generation to learn and practice this art, due to the high demand of time for production and insufficient and not guaranteed financial return . This project aims to promote the recovery of control over the product in the production of bobbin lace in the village of Ponta Negra, by design and implementation of a workshop for the transfer of drawing techniques in the Production Center of Craft in Village of Ponta Negra. This design was based on the methodology of Ergonomic Work Analysis and in the concepts of anthropotechnology and technology social. The ergonomic analysis, by advocating and enforcing the social and technical building, was essential for the modeling of this workshop, as allowed the construction of a social participative device , with the participation of the community groups and the external group of researchers, in a process of social construction technique. As a result, it was observed that the transfer of technical design of bobbin lace molds came to complement the learning of art office, providing solutions to promote the sustainable development of the group of tenants, in an attempt to reduce the risk of extinction eminent, and also contributed to reactivate a network of economic activities interconnected to the craft, such as the production of cushions, lace and easels

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This Master of Science Thesis deals with a BSC modeling for higher education institution focusing on private institution in the Brazilian context. It‟s accomplished a literature review in order to understand the BSC and its application to for profit and non for profit organizations and as a main result it is proposed a BSC conceptual model with a new perspective (Government) and a change in the hierarchy of the main BSC perspective equaling financial to customer/society. Taking the national higher education assessment system of Education Ministry indicators a model is deployed and the relations between the indicators are measured with the Pearson correlation coefficient. As a result a model emerges with sound relations of indicators but a improvement in the financial indicators is needed

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Due of industrial informatics several attempts have been done to develop notations and semantics, which are used for classifying and describing different kind of system behavior, particularly in the modeling phase. Such attempts provide the infrastructure to resolve some real problems of engineering and construct practical systems that aim at, mainly, to increase the productivity, quality, and security of the process. Despite the many studies that have attempted to develop friendly methods for industrial controller programming, they are still programmed by conventional trial-and-error methods and, in practice, there is little written documentation on these systems. The ideal solution would be to use a computational environment that allows industrial engineers to implement the system using high-level language and that follows international standards. Accordingly, this work proposes a methodology for plant and control modelling of the discrete event systems that include sequential, parallel and timed operations, using a formalism based on Statecharts, denominated Basic Statechart (BSC). The methodology also permits automatic procedures to validate and implement these systems. To validate our methodology, we presented two case studies with typical examples of the manufacturing sector. The first example shows a sequential control for a tagged machine, which is used to illustrated dependences between the devices of the plant. In the second example, we discuss more than one strategy for controlling a manufacturing cell. The model with no control has 72 states (distinct configurations) and, the model with sequential control generated 20 different states, but they only act in 8 distinct configurations. The model with parallel control generated 210 different states, but these 210 configurations act only in 26 distinct configurations, therefore, one strategy control less restrictive than previous. Lastly, we presented one example for highlight the modular characteristic of our methodology, which it is very important to maintenance of applications. In this example, the sensors for identifying pieces in the plant were removed. So, changes in the control model are needed to transmit the information of the input buffer sensor to the others positions of the cell

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Este trabalho propõe um ambiente computacional aplicado ao ensino de sistemas de controle, denominado de ModSym. O software implementa uma interface gráfica para a modelagem de sistemas físicos lineares e mostra, passo a passo, o processamento necessário à obtenção de modelos matemáticos para esses sistemas. Um sistema físico pode ser representado, no software, de três formas diferentes. O sistema pode ser representado por um diagrama gráfico a partir de elementos dos domínios elétrico, mecânico translacional, mecânico rotacional e hidráulico. Pode também ser representado a partir de grafos de ligação ou de diagramas de fluxo de sinal. Uma vez representado o sistema, o ModSym possibilita o cálculo de funções de transferência do sistema na forma simbólica, utilizando a regra de Mason. O software calcula também funções de transferência na forma numérica e funções de sensibilidade paramétrica. O trabalho propõe ainda um algoritmo para obter o diagrama de fluxo de sinal de um sistema físico baseado no seu grafo de ligação. Este algoritmo e a metodologia de análise de sistemas conhecida por Network Method permitiram a utilização da regra de Mason no cálculo de funções de transferência dos sistemas modelados no software

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Ensuring the dependability requirements is essential for the industrial applications since faults may cause failures whose consequences result in economic losses, environmental damage or hurting people. Therefore, faced from the relevance of topic, this thesis proposes a methodology for the dependability evaluation of industrial wireless networks (WirelessHART, ISA100.11a, WIA-PA) on early design phase. However, the proposal can be easily adapted to maintenance and expansion stages of network. The proposal uses graph theory and fault tree formalism to create automatically an analytical model from a given wireless industrial network topology, where the dependability can be evaluated. The evaluation metrics supported are the reliability, availability, MTTF (mean time to failure), importance measures of devices, redundancy aspects and common cause failures. It must be emphasized that the proposal is independent of any tool to evaluate quantitatively the target metrics. However, due to validation issues it was used a tool widely accepted on academy for this purpose (SHARPE). In addition, an algorithm to generate the minimal cut sets, originally applied on graph theory, was adapted to fault tree formalism to guarantee the scalability of methodology in wireless industrial network environments (< 100 devices). Finally, the proposed methodology was validate from typical scenarios found in industrial environments, as star, line, cluster and mesh topologies. It was also evaluated scenarios with common cause failures and best practices to guide the design of an industrial wireless network. For guarantee scalability requirements, it was analyzed the performance of methodology in different scenarios where the results shown the applicability of proposal for networks typically found in industrial environments

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In this Thesis, the development of the dynamic model of multirotor unmanned aerial vehicle with vertical takeoff and landing characteristics, considering input nonlinearities and a full state robust backstepping controller are presented. The dynamic model is expressed using the Newton-Euler laws, aiming to obtain a better mathematical representation of the mechanical system for system analysis and control design, not only when it is hovering, but also when it is taking-off, or landing, or flying to perform a task. The input nonlinearities are the deadzone and saturation, where the gravitational effect and the inherent physical constrains of the rotors are related and addressed. The experimental multirotor aerial vehicle is equipped with an inertial measurement unit and a sonar sensor, which appropriately provides measurements of attitude and altitude. A real-time attitude estimation scheme based on the extended Kalman filter using quaternions was developed. Then, for robustness analysis, sensors were modeled as the ideal value with addition of an unknown bias and unknown white noise. The bounded robust attitude/altitude controller were derived based on globally uniformly practically asymptotically stable for real systems, that remains globally uniformly asymptotically stable if and only if their solutions are globally uniformly bounded, dealing with convergence and stability into a ball of the state space with non-null radius, under some assumptions. The Lyapunov analysis technique was used to prove the stability of the closed-loop system, compute bounds on control gains and guaranteeing desired bounds on attitude dynamics tracking errors in the presence of measurement disturbances. The controller laws were tested in numerical simulations and in an experimental hexarotor, developed at the UFRN Robotics Laboratory

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In recent decades, changes have been occurring in the telecommunications industry, allied to competition driven by the policies of privatization and concessions, have fomented the world market irrefutably causing the emergence of a new reality. The reflections in Brazil have become evident due to the appearance of significant growth rates, getting in 2012 to provide a net operating income of 128 billion dollars, placing the country among the five major powers in the world in mobile communications. In this context, an issue of increasing importance to the financial health of companies is their ability to retain their customers, as well as turn them into loyal customers. The appearance of infidelity from customer operators has been generating monthly rates shutdowns about two to four percent per month accounting for business management one of its biggest challenges, since capturing a new customer has meant an expenditure greater than five times to retention. For this purpose, models have been developed by means of structural equation modeling to identify the relationships between the various determinants of customer loyalty in the context of services. The original contribution of this thesis is to develop a model for loyalty from the identification of relationships between determinants of satisfaction (latent variables) and the inclusion of attributes that determine the perceptions of service quality for the mobile communications industry, such as quality, satisfaction, value, trust, expectation and loyalty. It is a qualitative research which will be conducted with customers of operators through simple random sampling technique, using structured questionnaires. As a result, the proposed model and statistical evaluations should enable operators to conclude that customer loyalty is directly influenced by technical and operational quality of the services offered, as well as provide a satisfaction index for the mobile communication segment

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This work presents a model of bearingless induction machine with divided winding. The main goal is to obtain a machine model to use a simpler control system as used in conventional induction machine and to know its behavior. The same strategies used in conventional machines were used to reach the bearingless induction machine model, which has made possible an easier treatment of the involved parameters. The studied machine is adapted from the conventional induction machine, the stator windings were divided and all terminals had been available. This method does not need an auxiliary stator winding for the radial position control which results in a more compact machine. Another issue about this machine is the variation of inductances array also present in result of the rotor displacement. The changeable air-gap produces variation in magnetic flux and in inductances consequently. The conventional machine model can be used for the bearingless machine when the rotor is centered, but in rotor displacement condition this model is not applicable. The bearingless machine has two sets of motor-bearing, both sets with four poles. It was constructed in horizontal position and this increases difficulty in implementation. The used rotor has peculiar characteristics; it is projected according to the stator to yield the greatest torque and force possible. It is important to observe that the current unbalance generated by the position control does not modify the machine characteristics, this only occurs due the radial rotor displacement. The obtained results validate the work; the data reached by a supervisory system corresponds the foreseen results of simulation which verify the model veracity

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In this dissertation new models of propagation path loss predictions are proposed by from techniques of optimization recent and measures of power levels for the urban and suburban areas of Natal, city of Brazilian northeast. These new proposed models are: (i) a statistical model that was implemented based in the addition of second-order statistics for the power and the altimetry of the relief in model of linear losses; (ii) a artificial neural networks model used the training of the algorithm backpropagation, in order to get the equation of propagation losses; (iii) a model based on the technique of the random walker, that considers the random of the absorption and the chaos of the environment and than its unknown parameters for the equation of propagation losses are determined through of a neural network. The digitalization of the relief for the urban and suburban areas of Natal were carried through of the development of specific computational programs and had been used available maps in the Statistics and Geography Brazilian Institute. The validations of the proposed propagation models had been carried through comparisons with measures and propagation classic models, and numerical good agreements were observed. These new considered models could be applied to any urban and suburban scenes with characteristic similar architectural to the city of Natal

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This work presents simulation results of an identification platform compatible with the INPE Brazilian Data Collection System, modeled with SystemC-AMS. SystemC-AMS that is a library of C++ classes dedicated to the simulation of heterogeneous systems, offering a powerful resource to describe models in digital, analog and RF domains, as well as mechanical and optic. The designed model was divided in four parts. The first block takes into account the satellite s orbit, necessary to correctly model the propagation channel, including Doppler effect, attenuation and thermal noise. The identification block detects the satellite presence. It is composed by low noise amplifier, band pass filter, power detector and logic comparator. The controller block is responsible for enabling the RF transmitter when the presence of the satellite is detected. The controller was modeled as a Petri net, due to the asynchronous nature of the system. The fourth block is the RF transmitter unit, which performs the modulation of the information in BPSK ±60o. This block is composed by oscillator, mixer, adder and amplifier. The whole system was simulated simultaneously. The results are being used to specify system components and to elaborate testbenchs for design verification

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The incorporate of industrial automation in the medical are requires mechanisms to safety and efficient establishment of communication between biomedical devices. One solution to this problem is the MP-HA (Multicycles Protocol to Hospital Automation) that down a segmented network by beds coordinated by an element called Service Provider. The goal of this work is to model this Service Provider and to do performance analysis of the activities executed by in establishment and maintenance of hospital networks