131 resultados para Regressão descontinuada
Resumo:
The research in question looked for to establish the relation between the motivation (of the proprietor of apartment) to change itself of another one apartment, in closed vertical condominium (residential mobility) in the period of the recognition of the necessity, and the satisfaction with the apartment after consume. The universe or the population chosen for the development of the study was of proprietors of apartment in vertical condominiums located in the region metropolitan of Natal. The analysis of data was made using the techniques of linear regression and logistic regression between variables. The linear regression found relations between the motivations for housing change and the satisfaction in after consume with some attributes of the apartment. The logistic regression showed that relations between the motivations for change and the general satisfaction to the apartment exist as a whole, in the period after consumes. With regard to the motivation to change itself of a apartment for another one, some reasons shown more motivation them the others. The research found different degrees of satisfaction with certain characteristics of the apartment and degrees of no satisfaction with others. Finally the results of the research had contributed for the reply of the problem that guided the present study, therefore had obtained in such a way to find how much logistic not linear relations between the two periods purchase (recognition of the necessity and evaluation after consume) and had elucidated the process that goes since the choice the product until the satisfaction of the necessities
Resumo:
Currently the organizations are passing for continuous cycles of changes due to necessity of survival in the work market. The administration of the future points a way to the organizations of today and tomorrow, the search of the competitiveness from loyalty and motivation of its staff. Of this form, the model of the Auditoria do Sistema Humano (ASH), developed for Spanish researchers and that now it is being applied in Brazil, contemplates a series of dimensions about Human Resources management quality in the companies and the organizational effectiveness, such as the environment where the company is inserted, the strategies, the organizational drawing, the psychological and psychosocial processes, e the reached results. In this direction, the present research analyzed the factors of job satisfaction and organizational commitment, making, also, a relation of causality between the same ones. The quantitative-descriptive research had as population the employees of twenty three nourishing industries of the State of Rio Grande do Norte (Brazil), registered in the Federacy of the Industries of the state. The collection of the data occurred for the months of October of 2005 and March of 2006, by means of the application of questionnaire of model ASH. The sample was composed for 197 employees, however it was observed presence of five outliers, that they had been excluded from the analysis of the data. To extract the dimensions of the satisfaction and the commitment and identification the factorial analysis was used, with extraction method of principal components, rotation Varimax and normalization Kaiser. The gotten dimensions had been evaluated with the calculation of the coefficient Alpha of Cronbach. The factorial analysis of the pointers of the organizational commitment and identification had extracted ten factors. Of these, four had gotten significance of the analyses inside: affective commitment, values commitment, continuance commitment and necessity commitment. The result of the analysis of the pointers of job satisfaction indicated four factors: extrinsic, motivations, relation with the friends and auto-accomplishment. To deal with the data the relation between job satisfaction and organizational commitment it was used technique of multiple regression. The correlation between commitment and satisfaction was satisfactory, detaching the affective commitment with bigger index of correlation, followed of the affective one
Resumo:
The objective is to analyze the relationship between risk and number of stocks of a portfolio for an individual investor when stocks are chosen by "naive strategy". For this, we carried out an experiment in which individuals select actions to reproduce this relationship. 126 participants were informed that the risk of first choice would be an asset average of all standard deviations of the portfolios consist of a single asset, and the same procedure should be used for portfolios composed of two, three and so on, up to 30 actions . They selected the assets they want in their portfolios without the support of a financial analysis. For comparison we also tested a hypothetical simulation of 126 investors who selected shares the same universe, through a random number generator. Thus, each real participant is compensated for random hypothetical investor facing the same opportunity. Patterns were observed in the portfolios of individual participants, characterizing the curves for the components of the samples. Because these groupings are somewhat arbitrary, it was used a more objective measure of behavior: a simple linear regression for each participant, in order to predict the variance of the portfolio depending on the number of assets. In addition, we conducted a pooled regression on all observations by analyzing cross-section. The result of pattern occurs on average but not for most individuals, many of which effectively "de-diversify" when adding seemingly random bonds. Furthermore, the results are slightly worse using a random number generator. This finding challenges the belief that only a small number of titles is necessary for diversification and shows that there is only applicable to a large sample. The implications are important since many individual investors holding few stocks in their portfolios
Resumo:
There are a great number of evidences showing that education is extremely important in many economic and social dimensions. In Brazil, education is a right guaranteed by the Federal Constitution; however, in the Brazilian legislation the right to the three stages of basic education: Kindergarten, Elementary and High School is better promoted and supported than the right to education at College level. According to educational census data (INEP, 2009), 78% of all enrolments in College education are in private schools, while the reverse is found in High School: 84% of all matriculations are in public schools, which shows a contradiction in the admission into the universities. The Brazilian scenario presents that public universities receive mostly students who performed better and were prepared in elementary and high school education in private schools, while private universities attend students who received their basic education in public schools, which are characterized as low quality. These facts have led researchers to raise the possible determinants of student performance on standardized tests, such as the Brazilian Vestibular exam, to guide the development of policies aimed at equal access to College education. Seeking inspiration in North American models of affirmative action policies, some Brazilian public universities have suggested rate policies to enable and facilitate the entry of "minorities" (blacks, pardos1, natives, people of low income and public school students) to free College education. At the Federal University of the state Rio Grande do Norte (UFRN), the first incentives for candidates from public schools emerged in 2006, being improved and widespread during the last 7 years. This study aimed to analyse and discuss the Argument of Inclution (AI) - the affirmative action policy that provides additional scoring for students from public schools. From an extensive database, the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) technique was used as well as a Quantile Regression considering as control the variables of personal, socioeconomic and educational characteristics of the candidates from the Brazilian Vestibular exam 2010 of the Federal University of the state Rio Grande do Norte (UFRN). The results demonstrate the importance of this incentive system, besides the magnitude of other variables
Resumo:
This research aims to investigate the Hedge Efficiency and Optimal Hedge Ratio for the future market of cattle, coffee, ethanol, corn and soybean. This paper uses the Optimal Hedge Ratio and Hedge Effectiveness through multivariate GARCH models with error correction, attempting to the possible phenomenon of Optimal Hedge Ratio differential during the crop and intercrop period. The Optimal Hedge Ratio must be bigger in the intercrop period due to the uncertainty related to a possible supply shock (LAZZARINI, 2010). Among the future contracts studied in this research, the coffee, ethanol and soybean contracts were not object of this phenomenon investigation, yet. Furthermore, the corn and ethanol contracts were not object of researches which deal with Dynamic Hedging Strategy. This paper distinguishes itself for including the GARCH model with error correction, which it was never considered when the possible Optimal Hedge Ratio differential during the crop and intercrop period were investigated. The commodities quotation were used as future price in the market future of BM&FBOVESPA and as spot market, the CEPEA index, in the period from May 2010 to June 2013 to cattle, coffee, ethanol and corn, and to August 2012 to soybean, with daily frequency. Similar results were achieved for all the commodities. There is a long term relationship among the spot market and future market, bicausality and the spot market and future market of cattle, coffee, ethanol and corn, and unicausality of the future price of soybean on spot price. The Optimal Hedge Ratio was estimated from three different strategies: linear regression by MQO, BEKK-GARCH diagonal model, and BEKK-GARCH diagonal with intercrop dummy. The MQO regression model, pointed out the Hedge inefficiency, taking into consideration that the Optimal Hedge presented was too low. The second model represents the strategy of dynamic hedge, which collected time variations in the Optimal Hedge. The last Hedge strategy did not detect Optimal Hedge Ratio differential between the crop and intercrop period, therefore, unlikely what they expected, the investor do not need increase his/her investment in the future market during the intercrop
Resumo:
This work aims to investigate the relationship between the entrepreneurship and the incidence of bureaucratic corruption in the states of Brazil and Federal District. The main hypothesis of this study is that the opening of a business in Brazilian states is negatively affected by the incidence of corruption. The theoretical reference is divided into Entrepreneurship and bureaucratic corruption, with an emphasis on materialistic perspective (objectivist) of entrepreneurship and the effects of bureaucratic corruption on entrepreneurial activity. By the regression method with panel data, we estimated the models with pooled data and fixed and random effects. To measure corruption, I used the General Index of Corruption for the Brazilian states (BOLL, 2010), and to represent entrepreneurship, firm entry per capita by state. Tests (Chow, Hausman and Breusch-Pagan) indicate that the random effects model is more appropriate, and the preliminary results indicate a positive impact of bureaucratic corruption on entrepreneurial activity, contradicting the hypothesis expected and found in previous articles to Brazil, and corroborating the proposition of Dreher and Gassebner (2011) that, in countries with high regulation, bureaucratic corruption can be grease in the wheels of entrepreneurship
Resumo:
Neste estudo, foram examinadas as relações existentes entre a motivação e a satisfação do trabalhador no espaço laboral. O estudo empírico foi conduzido em uma única etapa, por meio da qual buscou-se conhecer as dimensões latentes identificadas e, a partir das dimensões validadas, buscou-se estabelecer relações com características motivacionais, como antecedentes, e satisfação pelo trabalho realizado, como conseqüência do atendimento das necessidades manifestadas pelo trabalhador. Foram entrevistados 38 (trinta e oito) funcionários da empresa Água Mineral Cristalina, incluindo-se os que ocupam cargos de chefia. Como instrumento de coleta de dados, foi utilizada parte do complexo da Auditoria do Sistema Humano ASH, criado por Quijano (1999), que se trata de um modelo de pesquisa na área de Psicologia Social, incluindo a Administração de Recursos Humanos, que analisa os processos psicológicos e psicossociais nas organizações. Para esta pesquisa, foram utilizados dois formulários sugeridos pelo autor citado, (anexos 01 e 02). O primeiro denomina-se condições para a motivação , com 15 (quinze) questões do tipo likert. O segundo, "trabalho bem feito e satisfação de necessidades", tem 22 (vinte e duas) questões, também do tipo likert. O instrumento foi respondido por colaboradores, independente da posição hierárquica, em aproximadamente 10 (dez) a 15 (quinze) minutos. A aplicação foi realizada diretamente pelo pesquisador nas unidades de produção e de administração da empresa. Por meio de modelagem de equações estruturais, foi estabelecido um modelo de relações causais entre as dimensões latentes relacionadas à motivação e o desempenho do empregado quando tem satisfeitas as suas necessidades. Quanto ao tratamento dos dados, este ocorreu de forma quantitativa. Quanto à análise, aconteceu após os dados terem sido tratados. Nesta pesquisa, os dados foram analisados por meio de estatísticas descritivas, atualizando-se os recursos de softwares específicos como Statistic ou SPSS Statistic Package for Social Sciences. Usou-se a técnica de Análise de Regressão, na qual foi utilizado o método STEPWISE que inclui na equação de explicação de uma variável dependente somente aquelas que auxiliam ou incrementam sua explicação. Como variáveis dependentes, foram utilizadas as variáveis do formulário "trabalho bem feito e satisfação de necessidades" e como variável independe as variáveis do questionário "condições para motivação". Sob o ponto de vista prático, este estudo mostrou que um determinado conjunto de características motivacionais influi positivamente na satisfação do trabalhador, que poderá realizar um trabalho bem feito; do lado teórico, a pesquisa verificou explicitamente a hipótese de que os aspectos motivacionais contribuem para que o empregado, sentindo-se satisfeito, desempenhe melhor as atribuições que lhe são conferidas
Resumo:
This study aimed to describe the spatial and temporal patterns of variation in trophic state and its relation with the structure and dynamics of planktonic community of a large reservoir located in semi-arid tropical region of Northeast Brazil. The reservoir Armando Ribeiro Gonçalves is the biggest reservoir of the Rio Grande do Norte State and is responsible for about 53% of all surface water accumulated in the State. The samples of water and plankton were taken monthly in 10 points distributed throughout the longitudinal axis of the reservoir and over a full hydrological cycle. The samples were collected to determine concentrations of total phosphorus, total nitrogen, chlorophyll a and suspended solids (fixed and volatile) and for determining the composition and abundance of phytoplanktonic and zooplanktonic species. During the study period, the reservoir was characterized as eutrophic and there was no trend of increasing the trophic state of the reservoir in the period of drought. The concentrations of total phosphorus and suspended fixed solids decreased towards the dam while the N:P ratios increased in the same direction due to the reduction in the phosphorus concentrations and relative constancy in the nitrogen concentrations. The N:P ratios observed were indicative of greater limitation by phosphorus than by nitrogen. However, as concentrations of both nutrients were high and the water transparency was very low, with secchi depth usually lower than one meter, it seems likely that the planktonic primary production of the reservoir is more limited by the availability of light than the availability of nutrients. High nutrient concentrations coupled with low availability of light may explain the continuing dominance of filamentous cyanobacteria such as Cylindrospermopsis raciborskii in the plankton of the reservoir.These cyanobacteria are potentially toxic and pose a serious environmental problem because it compromises the water quality for public supply, recreation and fishing when present in high densities as in this study. The mesozooplankton of the reservoir was dominated by the calanoid Notodiaptomus cearensis and the cladoceran Diaphanosoma spinulosum. In general, the structure of zooplankton community seems to be particularly influenced by the spatial variation of cyanobacteria. The results of the regression analyses show that both the chlorophyll a concentrations and the cyanobacteria biovolume were more strongly correlated with the nitrogen than with phosphorus and that the water transparency was more strongly correlated with algal biomass than with other sources of turbidity. The maximum load of phosphorus to attain the maximum permissible concentration of total P in the reservoir was estimated in 63.2 tonnes P/ year. The current external P load to the reservoir is estimated in 324 tonnes P / year and must be severely reduced to improve the water quality for water supply and allow the implementation of aquaculture projects that could contribute to the socio-economic development of the region
Resumo:
The Visceral Leishmaniose (LV) disease is endemic in some places in Brazil. It is caused by the protozoa Leishmania chagasi, being transmitted for vector, the phlebotomies, Lutzomyia longipalpis. In virtue of the expansion of the illness in Rio Grande do Norte, it is necessary to evaluate the determinative ambient factors in the proliferation of the vector for better control of the illness. The variable rainfall and the social variables had been analyzed using space regression with two models and the ambient variable of ZANE and the variables analyzed in 205 houses in the cities of Natal, Extremoz, Nísia Floresta, São Gonçalo do Amarante, São Jose do Mipibu, Parnamirim and Macaíba the Person and ML Chi-square were used . The analyses had shown that high rainfall, plain relief, the forest, the humid tropical climate the activities of production culture of sugar cane and fruit culture and the presence of bovines increase the risk of the LV. The work showed that it has space aggregation and that ambient factors influence in the LV in the State
Resumo:
This work aims to obtain a low-cost virtual sensor to estimate the quality of LPG. For the acquisition of data from a distillation tower, software HYSYS ® was used to simulate chemical processes. These data will be used for training and validation of an Artificial Neural Network (ANN). This network will aim to estimate from available simulated variables such as temperature, pressure and discharge flow of a distillation tower, the mole fraction of pentane present in LPG. Thus, allowing a better control of product quality
Resumo:
This Thesis presents the elaboration of a methodological propose for the development of an intelligent system, able to automatically achieve the effective porosity, in sedimentary layers, from a data bank built with information from the Ground Penetrating Radar GPR. The intelligent system was built to model the relation between the porosity (response variable) and the electromagnetic attribute from the GPR (explicative variables). Using it, the porosity was estimated using the artificial neural network (Multilayer Perceptron MLP) and the multiple linear regression. The data from the response variable and from the explicative variables were achieved in laboratory and in GPR surveys outlined in controlled sites, on site and in laboratory. The proposed intelligent system has the capacity of estimating the porosity from any available data bank, which has the same variables used in this Thesis. The architecture of the neural network used can be modified according to the existing necessity, adapting to the available data bank. The use of the multiple linear regression model allowed the identification and quantification of the influence (level of effect) from each explicative variable in the estimation of the porosity. The proposed methodology can revolutionize the use of the GPR, not only for the imaging of the sedimentary geometry and faces, but mainly for the automatically achievement of the porosity one of the most important parameters for the characterization of reservoir rocks (from petroleum or water)
Resumo:
Herpes simplex is a virus that can be transmitted sexually and is potentially associated with vertical transmission. This study evaluated the prevalence of genital infection by herpes simplex virus (HSV) types 1 and 2 in pregnant and nonpregnant care in the city of Natal / RN, including a total of 222 women, 92 pregnant and 130 nonpregnant. The participants answered a questionnaire to obtain data and socio-demographic characteristics, as well as potential risk factors for sexually transmitted diseases. After the interview, we collected two cervical specimens, one for the Pap test and the other for DNA extraction and analyzed by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) to detect both virus serotypes. Then the women underwent a clinical examination by colposcopy. For statistical analysis, we used the chi-square and logistic regression by SSPS 17.0 Statistic. Most women were up to 30 years of age, nonwhite ethnicity, married, elementary education, family income below the poverty level; initiated sexual activity with age up to 18 years; had more than one sexual partner lifelong and was not pregnant, but has had at least one child. The HSV-1 showed a prevalence of 26.1% among pregnant women and 30.0% in non-pregnant women. While HSV-2 prevalence was found with 10.9% and 19.2% in pregnant and nonpregnant women, respectively. The largest proportion of morphological changes of the uterine cervix was detected among nonpregnant women, both in cytology and in colposcopy. The women were nonwhite ethnicity, married, became pregnant aged less than or equal to 18 years and who had one to two pregnancies had a lower risk of acquiring genital HSV infection. There was a high prevalence of genital HSV infection, HSV-1 is more prevalent than HSV-2. No association was found between morphological changes of the uterine cervix and the presence of the virus in pregnant and nonpregnant women, nor between genital HSV infection and the classic risk factors for sexually transmitted diseases
Resumo:
The relation between metabolic demand and maximal oxygen consumption during exercise have been investigated in different areas of knowledge. In the health field, the determination of maximal oxygen consumption (VO2max) is considered a method to classify the level of physical fitness or the risk of cardiocirculatory diseases. The accuracy to obtain data provides a better evaluation of functional responses and allows a reduction in the error margin at the moment of risk classification, as well as, at the moment of determination of aerobic exercise work load. In Brasil, the use of respirometry associated to ergometric test became an opition in the cardiorespiratory evaluation. This equipment allows predictions concerning the oxyredutase process, making it possible to identify physiological responses to physical effort as the respiratory threshold. This thesis focused in the development of mathematical models developed by multiple regression validated by the stepwise method, aiming to predict the VO2max based on respiratory responses to physical effort. The sample was composed of a ramdom sample of 181 healthy individuals, men and women, that were randomized to two groups: regression group and cross validation group (GV). The voluntiars were submitted to a incremental treadmill test; objetiving to determinate of the second respiratory threshold (LVII) and the Peak VO2max. Using the método forward addition method 11 models of VO2max prediction in trendmill were developded. No significative differences were found between the VO2max meansured and the predicted by models when they were compared using ANOVA One-Way and the Post Hoc test of Turkey. We concluded that the developed mathematical models allow a prediction of the VO2max of healthy young individuals based on the LVII
Resumo:
The aims of this study were to analyze the access of dental services by child population, to determine the prevalence of dental caries, gingivitis and malocclusion in resident children from the municipal district of Sobral Ceará and to evaluate the incidence of the dental decay in adolescents associated with the factors related to socioeconomic condition, access to health services and self-perception. This study had as main factor the multidisciplinary represented by the participation of health professional (doctors, dentists, nurses) in the development of the survey's initial reference; student from Human Sciences area to apply the structured questionnaire in domiciliary visits; statistics professionals in the orientation of the analysis to be held and family health team (community health agents, dentists and dental clinic assistants) in the scheduling of domiciliary visits and the accomplishment of oral exam. The sample was determined from the domicile record that included children born between 1990 and 1994 to develop the research Children health conditions in the municipal district of Sobral Ceará . The first sample comprised 3425 parents of children from 5 to 9 years old, living in the urban area at the municipal district of Sobral Ceará, aiming at identifying the most important factors associated to the access to dental service. From this sample, 1021 children were selected in a systematic way, for the accomplishment to the epidemiological study of decay, gingivitis and malocclusion. In the study's third phase, in order to arrange the group to be followed, 688 adolescents were examined and interviewed, by means of the active search from the 1021 individuals that had been previously examined. It was observed that 50.9% of the children had access to dental service at least once in a lifetime. Of this total, 65.3% accomplished it during the last year, and 85.4% of these did in public services, what allows to identify the importance of this sector in the access to dental services. It was observed that the factors that most affected the access to dental 129 services were related to socioeconomic condition, such as the access to health plan, the possession of toothbrush, garbage collecting, mother s schooling, sewerage treatment and malnutrition. In relation to oral diseases, an increase in the DMF-T index according the age was observed, from 0.10 in five years old to 1.66 in the nine years old, while with the dmf-t index, the inverse happened, since the index decreased from 3.59 in five years old to 2.69 in nine years old. In relation to gingivitis, an average 32.7% of the children presented gum bleeding. In what concerns malocclusion, it was observed that 60.3% of the children didn't present any problem, 30.17% had light malocclusion and 9.5% severe malocclusion. The average incidence of dental caries was 1.86 teeth per youngster. Among the studied variables, tooth pain in the last six months, mother's income and school snack, adjusted by the perception about the need of treatment, the mother's schooling and the dentist's appointment at least once in a lifetime, were the variables that presented positive relationship with the high incidence of dental caries on this population by logistic regression. Variables of socioeconomic nature, related to the access to health services and behavior and biological variables presented a relationship with the high caries incidence. The study point out to the need of developing health actions in a humanized way, by an oral health team effectively bound to the population's interest, with the great objective to provide, with the public health services managers, adequate conditions to improve oral health
Resumo:
Alterations in the neuropsychomotor development of children are not rare and can manifest themselves with varying intensity at different stages of their development. In this context, maternal risk factors may contribute to the appearance of these alterations. A number of studies have reported that neuropsychomotor development diagnosis is not an easy task, especially in the basic public health network. Diagnosis requires effective, low-cost, and easy - to-apply procedures. The Denver Developmental Screening Test, first published in 1967, is currently used in several countries. It has been revised and renamed as the Denver II Test and meets the aforementioned criteria. Accordingly, the aim of this study was to apply the Denver II Test in order to verify the prevalence of suspected neuropsychomotor development delay in children between the ages of 0 and 12 months and correlate it with the following maternal risk factors: family income, schooling, age at pregnancy, drug use during pregnancy, gestational age, gestational problems, type of delivery and the desire to have children. For data collection, performed during the first 6 months of 2004, a clinical assessment was made of 398 children selected by pediatricians and the nursing team of each public health unit. Later, the parents or guardians were asked to complete a structured questionnaire to determine possible risk indicators of neuropsychomotor development delay. Finally the Denver II Developmental Screening Test (DDST) was applied. The data were analyzed together, using Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS) software, version 6.1. The confidence interval was set at 95%. The Denver II Test yielded normal and questionable results. This suggests compromised neuropsychomotor development in the children examined and deserves further investigation. The correlation of the results with preestablished maternal risk variables (family income, mother s schooling, age at pregnancy, drug use during the pregnancy and gestational age) was strongly significant. The other maternal risk variables (gestational problems, type of delivery and desire to have children) were not significant. Using an adjusted logistic regression model, we obtained the estimate of the greater likelihood of a child having suspected neuropsychomotor development delay: a mother with _75 4 years of schooling, chronological age less than 20 years and a drug user during pregnancy. This study produced two manuscripts, one published in Acta Cirúrgica Brasileira , in which an analysis was performed of children with suspected neuropsychomotor development delay in the city of Natal, Brazil. The other paper (to be published) analyzed the magnitude of the independent variable maternal schooling associated to neuropsychomotor development delay, every 3 months during the first twelve months of life of the children selected.. The results of the present study reinforce the multifactorial characteristic of development and the cumulative effect of maternal risk factors, and show the need for a regional policy that promotes low-cost programs for the community, involving children at risk of neuropsychomotor development delay. Moreover, they suggest the need for better qualified health professionals in terms of monitoring child development. This was an inter- and multidisciplinary study with the integrated participation of doctors, nurses, nursing assistants and professionals from other areas, such as statisticians and information technology professionals, who met all the requirements of the Postgraduate Program in Health Sciences of the Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte