Teoria da Ruína em um Modelo de Markov com dois Estados

In this work, we present a risk theory application in the following scenario: In each period of time we have a change in the capital of the ensurance company and the outcome of a two-state Markov chain stabilishs if the company pays a benece it heat to one of its policyholders or it receives a Hightimes c > 0 paid by someone buying a new policy. At the end we will determine once again by the recursive equation for expectation the time ruin for this company

A teoria da ruína aplicada em um modelo de empresa financeira com risco de crédito

In this work we study a new risk model for a firm which is sensitive to its credit quality, proposed by Yang(2003): Are obtained recursive equations for finite time ruin probability and distribution of ruin time and Volterra type integral equation systems for ultimate ruin probability, severity of ruin and distribution of surplus before and after ruin

Sobre o tempo

BONACCINI, J. A. . Sobre o tempo. Princípios: revista de filosofia. Natal((RN), v. 5, n. 6, p. 123-138, 1998. ISSN 1983-2109. Disponivel em: . Acesso em: 04 out. 2010.

Repercussões do tempo operatório em pulmões de ratos idosos

A duração das operações pode representar um fator importante para uma série de complicações pós-operatórias, especialmente para os indivíduos idosos. Objetivo: estudar a repercussão nos pulmões, de operações de diferentes tempos de duração. Métodos: Vinte ratos idosos (18 meses) e 20 jovens (3 meses) foram separados aleatoriamente em grupos A e B respectivamente. Os grupos foram divididos em A1, A2, A3, A4, B1, B2, B3 and B4, com cinco ratos cada. Os animais foram anestesiados com pentobarbital (20mg/Kg) intraperitoneal. No subgrupo A1 e B1 foi feita operação com duração de 30 minutos, nos grupos A2 and B2 60 minutos, em A3 and B3 a operação foi feita em 120 minuto e os animais A4 e B4 (controle) não foram operados. O procedimento consistiu de laparotomia xifopubiana que foi aberta e fechada tantas vezes quanto necessário para atingir os tempos estipulados. Após o quinto dia pós-operatório os animais foram mortos com superdose de anestésico e biópsias de ambos os pulmões foram realizadas. Os achados histopatológicos foram transformados em escores. Resultados: os grupos de ratos jovens atingiram os escores: A1= escore 6, A2=11; A3=28; A4=5. Os ratos idosos tiveram os escores: B1=12; B2=34; B3=51 e B4=6. A análise estatística revelou diferenças significantes entre os escores dos grupos A e B. Conclusões: O tempo prolongado nas operações realizadas em ratos idosos contribuiu para o aparecimento de alterações pulmonares de modo significante. Quanto maior o tempo operatório, mais intensas e mais freqüentes as complicações pulmonares

Repercussões do tempo operatório em pulmões de ratos idosos

A duração das operações pode representar um fator importante para uma série de complicações pós-operatórias, especialmente para os indivíduos idosos. Objetivo: estudar a repercussão nos pulmões, de operações de diferentes tempos de duração. Métodos: Vinte ratos idosos (18 meses) e 20 jovens (3 meses) foram separados aleatoriamente em grupos A e B respectivamente. Os grupos foram divididos em A1, A2, A3, A4, B1, B2, B3 and B4, com cinco ratos cada. Os animais foram anestesiados com pentobarbital (20mg/Kg) intraperitoneal. No subgrupo A1 e B1 foi feita operação com duração de 30 minutos, nos grupos A2 and B2 60 minutos, em A3 and B3 a operação foi feita em 120 minuto e os animais A4 e B4 (controle) não foram operados. O procedimento consistiu de laparotomia xifopubiana que foi aberta e fechada tantas vezes quanto necessário para atingir os tempos estipulados. Após o quinto dia pós-operatório os animais foram mortos com superdose de anestésico e biópsias de ambos os pulmões foram realizadas. Os achados histopatológicos foram transformados em escores. Resultados: os grupos de ratos jovens atingiram os escores: A1= escore 6, A2=11; A3=28; A4=5. Os ratos idosos tiveram os escores: B1=12; B2=34; B3=51 e B4=6. A análise estatística revelou diferenças significantes entre os escores dos grupos A e B. Conclusões: O tempo prolongado nas operações realizadas em ratos idosos contribuiu para o aparecimento de alterações pulmonares de modo significante. Quanto maior o tempo operatório, mais intensas e mais freqüentes as complicações pulmonares

Previsão do índice bovespa por meio de redes neurais artificiais: uma análise comparada aos métodos tradicionais de séries de tempo

Forecast is the basis for making strategic, tactical and operational business decisions. In financial economics, several techniques have been used to predict the behavior of assets over the past decades.Thus, there are several methods to assist in the task of time series forecasting, however, conventional modeling techniques such as statistical models and those based on theoretical mathematical models have produced unsatisfactory predictions, increasing the number of studies in more advanced methods of prediction. Among these, the Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) are a relatively new and promising method for predicting business that shows a technique that has caused much interest in the financial environment and has been used successfully in a wide variety of financial modeling systems applications, in many cases proving its superiority over the statistical models ARIMA-GARCH. In this context, this study aimed to examine whether the ANNs are a more appropriate method for predicting the behavior of Indices in Capital Markets than the traditional methods of time series analysis. For this purpose we developed an quantitative study, from financial economic indices, and developed two models of RNA-type feedfoward supervised learning, whose structures consisted of 20 data in the input layer, 90 neurons in one hidden layer and one given as the output layer (Ibovespa). These models used backpropagation, an input activation function based on the tangent sigmoid and a linear output function. Since the aim of analyzing the adherence of the Method of Artificial Neural Networks to carry out predictions of the Ibovespa, we chose to perform this analysis by comparing results between this and Time Series Predictive Model GARCH, developing a GARCH model (1.1).Once applied both methods (ANN and GARCH) we conducted the results' analysis by comparing the results of the forecast with the historical data and by studying the forecast errors by the MSE, RMSE, MAE, Standard Deviation, the Theil's U and forecasting encompassing tests. It was found that the models developed by means of ANNs had lower MSE, RMSE and MAE than the GARCH (1,1) model and Theil U test indicated that the three models have smaller errors than those of a naïve forecast. Although the ANN based on returns have lower precision indicator values than those of ANN based on prices, the forecast encompassing test rejected the hypothesis that this model is better than that, indicating that the ANN models have a similar level of accuracy . It was concluded that for the data series studied the ANN models show a more appropriate Ibovespa forecasting than the traditional models of time series, represented by the GARCH model

A verdade (des)construída: a inserção da homossexualidade na comunidade cristã Nova Esperança, em Natal

The religious plurality has been increasingly intense in Brazil, while it has served as an object of study in various fields of knowledge. In this context, this paper aims to point out the general heterogeneity among experienced growth of Protestant and evangelical denominations, especially those who claim to be inclusive by attending to human diversity, seeking to understand the relationship between religion and homosexuality. Specific objectives aim to understand the functioning and speeches produced by Comunidade Cristã Nova Esperança in Natal. The theoretical framework was seated in the works of Bento (2008), Lima (2009), Goffman (2001), Natividade (2008), Musskopf (2008), Helminiak (1998), Foucault (1997), among others. We tried to discuss the trajectory and how is the process of organization of the Comunidade Cristã Nova Esperança in Natal, the social advances that have reached homosexuals in our country, how this institution has contributed to the shift in paradigm in Christianity in respect to matters pertaining to religion and homosexuality, and the meaning of being a homosexual christian from the viewpoint perceived by social subjects living this experience

Influência do tempo e dose de heparina em modelo de peritonite aguda

In the last years, heparin has become target of many studies related to inflammation due its ability of biding to proteins involved on immune response. Recently, it was demonstrated, at our laboratory, using a thIoglycollate-induced peritonitis model, heparin s capacity of reduce cellular influx into the peritoneal cavity, 3 hours after the inflammatory stimulus. Once neutrophilic infiltration is highest around 8 hours after the inflammatory stimulus, at the present work, using the same peritonitis model, it was assessed heparin s ability of keeping the interference on leukocyte infiltration, 8 hours after inflammation induction. Moreover, using cellular differential count, it was evaluated how the cellular populations involved in the inflammatory process would be affected by the treatment. Eight hours after the inflammatory stimulus, only heparin dosage of 1 μg/Kg was able to reduce the cellular influx to peritoneum, 62.8% of reduction when compared to positive control (p < 0.001). Furthermore, heparin dosage of 15 μg/Kg presented a pro-inflammatory effect in whole blood verified by the increase of 60.9% (p < 0.001) and 117.8% (p < 0.001) on neutrophils and monocytes proportion, respectively, when compared to positive control. In addition, this dosage also presented a neutrophilic proportion on peritoneal fluid 27.3% higher than positive control (p < 0.05). This duality between anti- and pro-inflammatory effects at different times corroborates studies that attribute a pleiotropic immunomodulator role to heparin.

Cinemática de partículas em fluidos de viscosidade variável com o tempo e sua aplicação na construção de poços de petróleo: avaliação durante paradas operacionais

The new oil reservoirs discoveries in onshore and ultra deep water offshore fields and complex trajectories require the optimization of procedures to reduce the stops operation during the well drilling, especially because the platforms and equipment high cost, and risks which are inherent to the operation. Among the most important aspects stands out the drilling fluids project and their behavior against different situations that may occur during the process. By means of sedimentation experiments, a correlation has been validated to determe the sedimentation particles velocity in variable viscosity fluids over time, applying the correction due to effective viscosity that is a shear rate and time function. The viscosity evolution over time was obtained by carrying out rheologic tests using a fixed shear rate, small enough to not interfere in the fluid gelling process. With the sedimentation particles velocity and the fluid viscosity over time equations an iterative procedure was proposed to determine the particles displacement over time. These equations were implemented in a case study to simulate the cuttings sedimentation generated in the oil well drilling during stops operation, especially in the connections and tripping, allowing the drilling fluid project in order to maintain the cuttings in suspension, avoiding risks, such as stuck pipe and in more drastic conditions, the loss of the well

Metodologia para avaliação de cinemática de partículas gasosas em fluidos de viscosidade variável com o tempo e sua aplicação na construção de poços de petróleo

Many challenges have been presented in petroleum industry. One of them is the preventing of fluids influx during drilling and cementing. Gas migration can occur as result of pressure imbalance inside the well when well pressure becomes lower than gas zone pressure and in cementing operation this occurs during cement slurry transition period (solid to fluid). In this work it was developed a methodology to evaluate gas migration during drilling and cementing operations. It was considered gel strength concept and through experimental tests determined gas migration initial time. A mechanistic model was developed to obtain equation that evaluates bubble displacement through the fluid while it gels. Being a time-dependant behavior, dynamic rheological measurements were made to evaluate viscosity along the time. For drilling fluids analyzed it was verified that it is desirable fast and non-progressive gelation in order to reduce gas migration without affect operational window (difference between pore and fracture pressure). For cement slurries analyzed, the most appropriate is that remains fluid for more time below critical gel strength, maintaining hydrostatic pressure above gas zone pressure, and after that gels quickly, reducing gas migration. The model developed simulates previously operational conditions and allow changes in operational and fluids design to obtain a safer condition for well construction

Tempo livre de lazer e composição corporal de escolares do meio-oeste catarinense

The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between free time for leisure and body composition of students in the crucial ninth year. (N = 228) of towns in the Midwest catarinense. We used the Adolescent Behavior Questionnaire of Santa Catarina (COMPAC) to assess lifestyle, considering that Active schoolchildren during the week, accumulated 300 or more minutes of moderate or vigorous physical activity (MVPA). Were used the time to 2 hours or more / day to determine the time of excessive use of TV and computer video game. To analyze body composition were used two criteria: the Body Mass Index (BMI) and sum of skinfolds (EDC). It was observed a proportion of 67.3% of girls and 68.7% of boys assets and more than 98% of students were using excessive TV time, computer and video game. In the classification by EDC, most of the boys showed great or low levels of body composition, while more than half of girls were classified at higher levels. As for BMI, most boys and girls had not overweight. Significant difference in the comparison of total minutes per week of MVPA reported between the groups, the second criterion of EDC and BMI for girls but not for BMI in boys. It is concluded that students with higher accumulation in minutes of MVPA showed better body composition indicators, but no significant difference was found when compared active groups with inactive, according to criteria used.

A influência do tempo de diálise e do paratormônio sobre as condições clínico-radiográficas bucais de indivíduos com insuficiência renal crônica em diálise

Universidade Estadual do Rio Grande do Norte

Estudo do perfil térmico de fornos do tipo "caipira" utilizados pelo setor de cerâmica vermelha em parelhas na região Seridó-RN

The present study aimed to characterize the thermal profile of wood fired oven used by the red ceramic industry in Parelhas, in the Seridó region/RN, aiming to propose structural interventions that can contribute to increasing productivity and product quality, optimize wood consumption and mitigate existing losses during the burning process. The study was conducted at Cerâmica Esperança in the city of Parelhas -RN, Brazil, during the period from August 2012 to September 2013. Four treatments were performed with three replicates, ie, with, a total of 12 experimental units (burnings). In the first stage 4 treatments were performed with three replicates, totaling 12 experimental units (firings). In the second stage 2 treatments were performed with three replications, totaling 6 experimental units (firings). The physical characteristics of the wood were analyzed using standard NBR 11941 and NBR 7190 for basic density and moisture, respectively. The clay was used as a reference parameter for distinguishing treatments. For both the analysis and characterization was carried out using techniques of fluorescence X (XRF) rays, X-ray diffraction (XRD) analysis, particle size analysis (FA). In the first and second stages were monitored: the time during the firing process, the amount of wood used at each firing, the number of parts enfornadas for subsequent determination of the percentages of losses, but also product quality. To characterize the thermal profile of the oven, we measured the temperature at 15 points scored in the surface charge put into the oven. Measurements were taken every 30 minutes from preheat until the end of burning, using a pyrometer laser sight sighting from preheating until the end of burning. In the second step 12 metal cylinders distributed on the oven walls, and the cylinder end walls 8 of the furnace 2 and rollers on each side walls are installed equidistant to 17 cm from the soil and the surface 30 of the wall are installed. The cylinders distributed on the front were placed 50 cm above the furnace, and the base of the oven 20 cm distant from the ground. 10 also thermocouples were installed, and five thermocouples distributed 1.77 cm above the combustion chambers, and one thermocouple on each side, and three thermocouples in front of the oven. We carried out the measurements of the temperatures every 1 hour during the burning two hours in cooling the cylinders with a pyrometer and thermocouples for dattaloger. These were fixed with depth of 30 cm from the wall. After statistical analysis it was found that: the thermal profile of the furnace surface and at different heights was heterogeneous; and the ranges of density and moisture content of wood are within recommended for use as an energy source standards. We conclude that even at low temperatures reached during firing there was a significant production of good quality products, this is due to high concentrations of iron oxide and potassium oxide found in clay, which lowers the melting point of the piece. The average burn time for each step varied 650-2100 minutes wood consumption was on average 20 m3, product quality was on average 16% of first quality, 70% second, third and 5% to 10% loss . The distance between the wire and the surface of the oven was a significant parameter for all treatments, but with different variations, meaning that the wire should not be so generic and unique form, used as a criterion for completion of the burn process. The central part of the furnace was the area that reached higher temperature, and in a unified manner, with the highest concentration of top quality products. The ideal temperature curve, which provided the highest quality of ceramic products was achieved in the central part of the furnace

Um olhar sociológico sobre a criança e o brincar: espaço e tempo de construção, reinvenção e aprendizagem

This research I discuss the play, also talking with the other subjects that make up the universe in which the play is inserted, such as family, school and culture. The fundamental proposition of this dissertation assumes that the absence of play in children's lives affect their physical structure, psychological, biological, cultural, social, historical and theirs development. The initial questions were: What are the spacetimes reserved in the school for play? What is the importance of play in the development of children? Does the school recognize the importance of play in its social space? How the children perceive and use the spacetimes to play at school? Are there spacetimes at school to play? This is a theoretical and empirical research of exploratory study. The research‟s field was the Municipal School Professor Ulysses Góes, located in district of Nova Descoberta, in Natal, Rio Grande do Norte and, as research techniques, I used: participant observation, photography, structured interviews with students and questionnaires with teachers. The results indicate that for most of children, the school allows the play, few disagree with this preposition.Teachers recognize the importance of play in school, but for various reasons do not provide your practice. The dissertation points the possibility of new studies and developments for the theme.

Em busca do tempo partido: a consciência histórica e o MST

The work that follows is dedicated to the study of the historic time experience by the political militancy from our time. The political militant from the left-wing is the one that denies the state of current things, recovering a historic experience located far before its time and projecting a future beyond the incessant reproduction of the present relations. We chosen the Landless Workers Movement, not as study object, but as specific place where this consciousness is made and can be comprehended. The historic consciousness study of the landless militancy is, for us, the best starting point to understand the magnification of the historical time operated on the change of social relations lived inside an organization. The time division between before and after, as well as the history being understood as a progress isn t a natural given data, but a construction that obeys the contradictions of the present. It, therefore, must understand how the present lived by the militancy operates changes on the consciousness of time. From documents, reference books, formation notebooks and several materials produced by MST, we try to understand the way that the movement tells his history and lists with this wider experience of the struggle for the change of the current social order. Similarly, when we hear reports of history of several militants, we try to comprehend how this wider narrative re-orients the sight over history himself, over the experience of contradictions on before and after making the landless militant