Sustained growth, government expenditure and inflation

We construct and simulate a theoretical model in order to explain particular historical experiences in which inflation acceleration apparently helped to spur a period of economic growth. Government financed expenditures affect positively the produtivity growth in this model so that the distortionary effect of inflation tax is compensated by the productive effect of public expenditures. We show that for some interval of money creation rates there is an equilibrium where money is valued and where steady state physica1 capital grows with inflation. It is a1so shown that zero inflation and growth maximization are never the optimal policies.

The risk-properties of human capital and the design of government policies

Whether human capital increases or decreases wage uncertainty is an open question from an empirical standpoint. Yet, most policy prescriptions regarding human capital formation are based on models that impose riskiness on this type of investment. In a two period and finite type optimal income taxation problem we derive prescriptions that are robust to the risk characteristics of human capital: savings should be discouraged, human capital investments encouraged and both types of investment driven to an efficient level from an aggregate perspective. These prescriptions are also robust to the assumptions regarding what choices are observed, despite policy instruments being not.

The consistency of welfare judgements with a representative consumer

This paper is about economies with a representative consumer. In general a representative consumer need not exist, although there are several well known sets of sufficient conditions under which Qne will. It is common practice, however, to use the representative consumer hypothesis without specifically assuming any of these. We show, firstly, that it is possible for the utility of the representative consumer to increase when every actual consumer is made worse off. This shows a serious shortcoming of welfare judgements based on the representatíve consumer. Secondly, in economies where this does not occur, there exists a social welfare function, which we construct, which is consistent with welfare judgements based on the utility of the representative consumer. Finally we provide a converse to Samuelson' s 1956 representative consumer result, which relates it to Scitovsky's community indifference curves.

A green revolution in Mozambique: a study about the government possibilities to launch a sustainable green revolution

The present study is focused on the analysis of the political, economical and social factors that may interfere with the possibility of a Green Revolution as a solution for Mozambique to reach self-sufficiency and to reduce poverty. In order to perform such analysis, the study analyzes the consequences of the decolonization process in Mozambique focusing that the independence process in Mozambique did not create non-colonial models for the Agriculture Sector. Later on, the study tries to understand the impact of HIV/AIDS and Malaria on the labor force. By then, it explores the concepts of the Green Revolution and its successful history in India. At the end, it tries to evaluate if a Green Revolution is possible in Africa, especially in Mozambique, first identifying the factors, which characterized the Green Revolution in India, and trying to link those factors with the reality of Mozambique. The report is structured as followed; Chapter 2, ¿The decolonization process and its impacts on the agriculture sector¿. It gives information about the decolonization process, and explores its consequences. Chapter 3, ¿The Impacts of HIV/AIDS and Malaria on the Labor Force¿. It analyzes the impact of those diseases in the labor force. Chapter 4 ¿The Green Revolution and the Agriculture Sector¿, explores the concepts of Green Revolution, its success in India and its history in Mozambique. Chapter 5, finally, centers on conclusions, findings and recommendations.

Fatores relevantes na construção de processos government-to-government no Banco Central do Brasil

This dissertation seeks to recognize the factors, which are relevant to the construction of the processes Government-to-Government (G2G), and how these factors influence the success of those processes. For this research, two existing cases in Banco Central do Brasil (Bacen) were used: i) the Banco Central do Brasil (BACEN) X Senado Federal case; and the Bacen x Poder Judiciário case. The framework of this dissertation is based on the methodology of multiple study cases described by Robert Yin (2001). This work analyzed separately each of the cases and compared the results obtained in each analysis. In this way, this research aimed at analyzing the reasons that led these cases to gain such distinct outcomes, despite the existing potential benefits in each one of them. The obtained results suggest that three factors influence the success of G2G processes in a relevant way: computational safety; the culture of the organizations involved; and the capacitation of people involved. Each of these factors, according to what results showed, bring a set of considerations which should be observed by the public administrator in relation to the strategies of implementation of G2G processes.

Mensuração de Capacidade Tecnológica no Contexto de Industrialização Recente: Uma Breve Reflexão Crítica Sobre Taxonomias e Evidências de Pesquisas Recentes

This dissertation aims at examining empirical evidences obtained in the light of taxonomies and strategies for measuring firms technological capabilities and innovation in the context of developing countries, motivated by the fact that debates and studies directed to innovation has been intensified, for the last thirty years, by the recognition of its vital and growing importance to the technological, economic, competitive and industrial development of firms and countries. Two main tendencies can be identified on this debate. At one side, it¿s the literature related to the developed countries logic, whose companies are, in majority, positioned at the technological frontier, characterized by the domain of innovative advanced capabilities, directed to its sustaining, deepening and renewal. At the other side, there are the perspectives directed to the developing countries reality, where there is a prevalence of companies with deficiency of resources, still in process of accumulating basic and intermediate technological capabilities, with characteristics and technological development trajectories distinct or even reverse from those of developing countries. From this last tradition of studies, the measuring approaches based in C&T indicators and in types and levels of technological capabilities stand out. The first offers a macro level, aggregated perspective, through the analysis of a representative sample of firms, seeking to the generation of internationally comparable data, without addressing the intraorganizational specificities and nuances of the paths of technological accumulation developed by the firms, using, mostly, R&D statistics, patents, individual qualifications, indicators that carry their own limitations. On the other hand, studies that examine types and levels of technological capabilities are scarce, usually directed to a small sample of firms and/or industrial sectors. Therefore, in the light of the focus and potentialities of each of the perspectives, this scenario exposes a lack of studies that examine, in a parallel and complementary way, both types of strategies, seeking to offer more realistic, consistent and concrete information about the technological reality of developing countries. In order to close this gap, this dissertation examines (i) strategies of innovation measurement in the contexts of developing countries based on traditional approaches and C&T indicators, represented by four innovation surveys - ECIB, PINTEC, PAEP and EAI, and, (ii) from the perspective of technological capabilities as an intrinsic resource of the firm, the development of which occurs in a cumulative way and based on learning, presents and extracts generalizations of empirical applications of a metric that identifies types and levels of technological capabilities, through a dynamic and intra-firm perspective. The exam of the empirical evidences of the two approaches showed what each one of the metrics are capable to offer and the way they can contribute to the generation of information that reflect the technological development of specific industrial sectors in developing countries. In spite of the fact that the focus, objective, perspective, inclusion, scope and lens used are substantially distinct, generating, on a side, an aggregated view, and of other, an intra-sector, intra-organizational and specific view, the results suggest that the use of one doesn't implicate discarding or abdicating the other. On the contrary, using both in a complementary way means the generation of more complete, rich and relevant evidences and analysis that offer a realistic notion of the industrial development and contribute in a more direct way to the design of corporate strategies and government policies, including those directed to the macro level aspects just as those more specific and focused, designed to increment and foment firms in-house innovative efforts.

Arranjo produtivo local: o caso de São João Del Rei-MG

O objetivo dessa dissertação foi investigar o processo de formação do Arranjo Produtivo Local (APL) de estanho em São João del-Rei - A7 Estanho, particularizando suas contribuições para o desenvolvimento local do município. O trabalho foi conduzido mediante uma discussão teórica sobre a situação das micro e pequenas empresas no Brasil, sobre a importância econômica e social dos arranjos produtivos locais, seus impactos no desenvolvimento regional e/ou local, principalmente de municípios sem infra-estrutura para atrair grandes empresas, e sobre políticas públicas que estão em andamento e que se voltam para o fomento desse tipo de aglomerado. Foram realizadas cerca de quatorze entrevistas no município de São João del-Rei: seis integrantes da Associação, uma funcionária, dois representantes das principais instituições parceiras, um representante do governo local e quatro membros da sociedade civil, que possuíam informações relevantes sobre a A7. O método empregado no tratamento dos dados foi a análise de conteúdo. Como resultados, no que diz respeito à análise dos programas que deram origem e/ou sustentação ao aglomerado, verificou-se que dois programas foram mais contundentes em suas contribuições à Associação: o Programa Empreender, da Federaminas, que permitiu a união dos empresários em torno de um objetivo comum, e o Projeto Via Design, do Sebrae, que possibilitou uma série de vantagens ao grupo, solidificando-o no mercado. No que se refere à participação dos diversos atores (membros da A7, poder público, instituições parceiras, sociedade civil) na construção do APL, pode-se perceber que o nível de atuação e comprometimento variava de acordo com as motivações pessoais, cargos ou funções formais exercidas e grau de relacionamento com a Associação. As contribuições ao desenvolvimento local do município, geradas pelo arranjo produtivo, foram enumeradas como geração de emprego e renda, ainda de forma incipiente, mas com possibilidades de crescimento futuro, e divulgação do turismo e cultura sãojoanense.

Governo eletrônico e transparência: a publicização das contas públicas das capitais brasileiras

O objetivo principal deste trabalho é estudar a influência do governo eletrônico na democracia. Por ser um tema que permite diversas abordagens, escolheu-se focar o estudo na avaliação da transparência administrativa e disponibilidade de informações públicas em websites governamentais. A análise empírica avaliou a prestação de contas públicas de todas as capitais estaduais brasileiras, em cumprimento às leis federais de Contas Públicas e de Responsabilidade Fiscal. Para isso, criou-se um roteiro de avaliação de websites governamentais que permitisse a avaliação dos principais indicadores relacionados à transparência administrativa. Os resultados obtidos da pesquisa apresentam evidências dos principais condicionantes da transparência, permitindo relacioná-los com as indicações da literatura sobre o tema. Como resultado final, pretende-se contribuir para a maior compreensão de um dos componentes fundamentais da democracia representativa: a transparência dos atos públicos, colaborando para ampliar o conhecimento sobre os possíveis impactos do governo eletrônico na sociedade moderna.

Government actions to support coffee producers - an investigation of possible measures from the European Union

We outline possible actions to be adopted by the European Union to ensure a better share of total coffee revenues to producers in developing countries. The way to this translates, ultimately, in producers receiving a fair price for the commodity they supply, i.e., a market price that results from fair market conditions in the whole coffee producing chain. We plead for proposals to take place in the consuming countries, as market conditions in the consuming-countries side of the coffee producing chain are not fair; market failures and ingenious distortions are responsible for the enormous asymmetry of gains in the two sides. The first of three proposals for consumer government supported actions is to help in the creation of domestic trading companies for achieving higher export volumes. These tradings would be associated to roasters that, depending on the final product envisaged, could perform the roasting in the country and export the roasted – and sometimes ground – coffee, breaking the increasing importers-exporters verticalisation. Another measure would be the systematic provision of basic intelligence on the consuming markets. Statistics of the quantities sold according to mode of consumption, by broad “categories of coffee” and point of sale, could be produced for each country. They should be matched to the exports/imports data and complemented by (aggregate) country statistics on the roasting sector. This would extremely help producing countries design their own market and producing strategies. Finally, a fund, backed by a common EU tax on roasted coffee – created within the single market tax harmonisation programme, is suggested. This European Coffee Fund would have two main projects. Together with the ICO, it would launch an advertising campaign on coffee in general, aimed at counterbalancing the increasing “brandification” of coffee. Basic information on the characteristics of the plant and the drink would be passed, and the effort could be extended to the future Eastern European members of the Union, as a further assurance that EU processors would not have a too privileged access to these new markets. A quality label for every coffee sold in the Union could complement this initiative, helping to create a level playing field for products from outside the EU. A second project would consist in a careful diversification effort, to take place in selected producing countries.

The risk premium on brazilian government debt, 1996-2002

The goal of this paper is to identify the determinants of the risk premium on Brazilian government debt. As the risk premium is a component of the interest rate set by the Brazilian central bank, its reduction would make it possible for the central bank to cut interest rates to levels compatible with a higher economic growth environment. The empirical evidence presented in this paper does not reject the hypotheses that fiscal solvency and the size of the public debt affect the risk premium as measured by the spread over treasury bills of the Brazilian C-bond.

Government policy and private investment in Brazil (1955/82)

The questlon of the crowding-out of private !nvestment by public expenditure, public investment in particular , ln the Brazilian economy has been discussed more in ideological terrns than on empirical grounds. The present paper tries to avoid the limitation of previous studies by estlmatlng an equation for private investment whlch makes it possible to evaluate the effect of economic policies on prlvate investment. The private lnvestment equation was deduced modifylng the optimal flexible accelerator medel (OFAM) incorporating some channels through which public expendlture influences privateinvestment. The OFAM consists in adding adjustment costs to the neoclassical theory of investrnent. The investment fuction deduced is quite general and has the following explanatory variables: relative prices (user cost of capitaljimput prices ratios), real interest rates, real product, public expenditures and lagged private stock of capital. The model was estimated for private manufacturing industry data. The procedure adopted in estimating the model was to begin with a model as general as possible and apply restrictions to the model ' s parameters and test their statistical significance. A complete diagnostic testing was also made in order to test the stability of estirnated equations. This procedure avoids ' the shortcomings of estimating a model with a apriori restrictions on its parameters , which may lead to model misspecification. The main findings of the present study were: the increase in public expenditure, at least in the long run, has in general a positive expectation effect on private investment greater than its crowding-out effect on priva te investment owing to the simultaneous rise in interst rates; a change in economlc policy, such as that one of Geisel administration, may have an important effect on private lnvestment; and reI ative prices are relevant in determining the leveI of desired stock of capital and private investrnent.

O orçamento do governo local sob condições de participação dos cidadãos: o caso da Prefeitura de Santos

Este trabalho trata de um estudo de caso sobre a participação direta dos cidadãos no orçamento público municipal. Discute-se a teoria democrática sustentando-se que a democracia representativa apresenta fàlhas que exigem mecanismos corretivos e que a participação direta dos cidadãos se apresenta como uma alternativa para corrigir esses desvios. A premissa básica que permeia toda a pesquisa é a da participação direta como meio eficiente de controle do cidadão sobre as ações do Estado - Governo Local. Por meio da análise do Programa de Governo do Partido e do Plano de Governo da Prefeitura de Santos~ procurou-se verificar quais os fundamentos teóricos da participação direta que orientam as ações do Governo Municipal Santista. A dimensão institucional da participação é explorada por meio da descrição e análise crítica das formas de participação direta~ previstas na legislação constitucional - Constituições Federal e Estadual de São Paulo e Lei Orgânica do Município de Santos. Busca-se identificar quais são os limites dos mecanismos de participação direta, previstos na legislação. quando aplicados ao orçamento municipal. A investigação sobre o processo decisório orçamentário visa a captar qual lógica subjaz no processo de alocação de recursos no orçamento público. Embora se tenha assinalados certos embaraços jurídicos e operacionais à participação direta dos cidadãos no orçamento~ esses entraves não invalidam a importância da experiência com orçamento participativo no Município de Santos. A proposta da Prefeitura Santista, por seu caráter inovador e educativo revela-se uma valiosa contribuição para a prática de uma gestão mais democrática e transparente no âmbito municipal.

Gestão democrática do ensino público: como se traduz este princípio?

Este trabalho se propõe constituir uma sistematização sobre o princípio da gestão democrática do ensino público contemplado na nova Constituição brasileira de 1988 e remetido a lei ordinária para sua regulamentação. Trata-se de um estudo sobre as várias percepções - o que as entidades da sociedade organizada na área de educação possuem sobre gestão dernocrática - e de uma análise desse princípio no projeto de Lei de Diretrizes e Bases da Educação Nacional. da Comissão de Educação, Cultura e Desporto da Câmara dos Deputados, aprovado em junho de 1990.

The forward- and the equity-premium puzzles: two symptoms of the same illness?

Using information on US domestic financial data only, we build a stochastic discount factor—SDF— and check whether it accounts for foreign markets stylized facts that escape consumption based models. By interpreting our SDF as the projection of a pricing kernel from a fully specified model in the space of returns, our results indicate that a model that accounts for the behavior of domestic assets goes a long way toward accounting for the behavior of foreign assets prices. We address predictability issues associated with the forward premium puzzle by: i) using instruments that are known to forecast excess returns in the moments restrictions associated with Euler equations, and; ii) by comparing this out-of-sample results with the one obtained performing an in-sample exercise, where the return-based SDF captures sources of risk of a representative set of developed and emerging economies government bonds. Our results indicate that the relevant state variables that explain foreign-currency market asset prices are also the driving forces behind U.S. domestic assets behavior.