Nash Demand Game and the Kalai-Smorodinsky Solution

We introduce two new variations on the Nash demand game. One, like all known Nash-like demand games so far, has the Nash solution outcome as its equilibrium outcome. In the other, the range of solutions depends on an exogenous breakdown probability; surprisingly, the Kalai-Smorodinsky outcome proves to be the most robust equilibrium outcome. While the Kalai- Smorodinsky solution always finishes on top, there is no possible general ranking among the remaining solution concepts considered; in fact, the rest of the solution concepts take their turns at the bottom at various bargaining problems, depending on the specifics of the bargaining setup.

Gait termination in young and older adults : effect of stopping stimulus probability and stimulus delay

Sixteen young (25±2.6 years) and 16 older individuals (69±4.4 years) walked normally then terminated walking rapidly. A visual stopping stimulus was presented 10 ms following ground contact (short delay) and in another condition, at 450 ms prior to toe-off (long delay). Stimulus probability was either high (80% of trials) or low (10%). The younger group stopped faster (463 vs. 574 ms) despite also walking faster (1.29 vs. 1.17 m s⁻¹). Longer delay decreased one-step responses but older participants used significantly more (slower) two-step stopping, which increased stopping time and distance. The additional step may have been pre-planned to maintain medial–lateral stability.

Exercise in the fasted state facilitates fibre type-specific intramyocellular lipid breakdown and stimulates glycogen resynthesis in humans

The effects were compared of exercise in the fasted state and exercise with a high rate of carbohydrate intake on intramyocellular triglyceride (IMTG) and glycogen content of human muscle. Using a randomized crossover study design, nine young healthy volunteers participated in two experimental sessions with an interval of 3 weeks. In each session subjects performed 2 h of constant-load bicycle exercise (∼75% V_O2max ), followed by 4 h of controlled recovery. On one occasion they exercised after an overnight fast (F), and on the other (CHO) they received carbohydrates before (∼150 g) and during (1 g (kg bw)⁻¹ h⁻¹) exercise. In both conditions, subjects ingested 5 g carbohydrates per kg body weight during recovery. Fibre type-specific relative IMTG content was determined by Oil red O staining in needle biopsies from m. vastus lateralis before, immediately after and 4 h after exercise. During F but not during CHO, the exercise bout decreased IMTG content in type I fibres from 18 ± 2% to 6 ± 2% (P= 0.007) area lipid staining. Conversely, during recovery, IMTG in type I fibres decreased from 15 ± 2% to 10 ± 2% in CHO, but did not change in F. Neither exercise nor recovery changed IMTG in type IIa fibres in any experimental condition. Exercise-induced net glycogen breakdown was similar in F and CHO. However, compared with CHO (11.0 ± 7.8 mmol kg⁻¹ h⁻¹), mean rate of postexercise muscle glycogen resynthesis was 3-fold greater in F (32.9 ± 2.7 mmol kg−1 h−1, P= 0.01). Furthermore, oral glucose loading during recovery increased plasma insulin markedly more in F (+46.80 μU ml⁻¹) than in CHO (+14.63 μU ml⁻¹, P= 0.02). We conclude that IMTG breakdown during prolonged submaximal exercise in the fasted state takes place predominantly in type I fibres and that this breakdown is prevented in the CHO-fed state. Furthermore, facilitated glucose-induced insulin secretion may contribute to enhanced muscle glycogen resynthesis following exercise in the fasted state.

A diagnostic 'profile' for chance (probability)

This article presents a profiling tools for identifying students knowledge in chance.

What is a presentational media regime? The contemporary breakdown in systems of representation

Foundational to both the operation and legitimation of our traditional media is the idea of representation: in some sense the images of television, the sounds of radio, the narratives of film, and the various public personalities stand in or in place of ourselves. Likewise our contemporary political system function as an elaborate representational system, where regions, "seats", electorates, the nation, and the nationstate are represented by individuals, parties and symbols. Although, there are differences between and among modern nation-states as clearly different political and cultural agendas are at play, the interplay of contemporary media, culture and politics has produced what can be called a 'representational regime' that more or less operates globally, albeit fragmented into national and regional groupings.

This paper explores the initial stages in the breakdown of this system of representation that has allowed a certain organization of culture and politics to expand and develop over the last two centuries. It acknowledges that central to this regime is something Nick Couldry has identified as "the myth of the mediated centre" (Couldry, 2003). What the paper argues, and therefore differs from Couldry's conclusion, is that there are cracks in the glue that holds the system together and they are emerging in the uses of new media. Through an exploration of presentational media - that is, media that is more involved with the presentation of the self for public/private and networked consumption than traditional media's effort to embody their audience in its narratives - the paper reaches for conclusions that identify a more elaborate legitimation crisis looming in our political and cultural worlds.

A conditional probability approach to risk assessment for child sexual offenders with different classes of victim

Specific scales were developed for discriminating child sexual offenders with different classes of victim. The project demonstrates a method of individualising scores on actuarial risk assessment measured in a way that makes them more meaningful for those involved in decision-making about individual child sexual offenders. At present, the only quantifiable approach to specific decision-making relies on a general prediction of future behaviour, based on group data. The Bayesian approach is one method that can be used to assist decision-makers to use this information in ways that lead to the more appropriate management of risk. Ultimately, the better management of known child sexual offenders will lead to fewer offences and a reduction in the number of children who lives are profoundly affected by sexual victimisation.

Is extrapair mating random? On the probability distribution of extrapair young in avian broods

A dichotomy in female extrapair copulation (EPC) behavior, with some females seeking EPC and others not, is inferred if the observed distribution of extrapair young (EPY) over broods differs from a random process on the level of individual offspring (binomial, hypergeometrical, or Poisson). A review of the literature shows such null models are virtually always rejected, with often large effect sizes. We formulate an alternative null model, which assumes that 1) the number of EPC has a random (Poisson) distribution across females (broods) and that 2) the probability for an offspring to be of extrapair origin is zero without any EPC and increases with the number of EPC. Our brood-level model can accommodate the bimodality of both zero and medium rates of EPY typically found in empirical data, and fitting our model to EPY production of 7 passerine bird species shows evidence of a nonrandom distribution of EPY in only 2 species. We therefore argue that 1) dichotomy in extrapair mate choice cannot be inferred only from a significant deviation in the observed distribution of EPY from a random process on the level of offspring and that 2) additional empirical work on testing the contrasting critical predictions from the classic and our alternative null models is required.

Family breakdown, the best interests of the child concept, and the legal system

It appears that the legal system's response to the issues relating to family breakdown and "the best interests of the child" concept can sometimes be inadequate. There also appears to a lack of consistency with regards to enforcing the best interests of the child concept in legal proceedings concerning children.

Distinguishing DDoS attacks from flash crowds using probability metrics

Both Flash crowds and DDoS (Distributed Denial-of-Service) attacks have very similar properties in terms of internet traffic, however Flash crowds are legitimate flows and DDoS attacks are illegitimate flows, and DDoS attacks have been a serious threat to internet security and stability. In this paper we propose a set of novel methods using probability metrics to distinguish DDoS attacks from Flash crowds effectively, and our simulations show that the proposed methods work well. In particular, these mathods can not only distinguish DDoS attacks from Flash crowds clearly, but also can distinguish the anomaly flow being DDoS attacks flow or being Flash crowd flow from Normal network flow effectively. Furthermore, we show our proposed hybrid probability metrics can greatly reduce both false positive and false negative rates in detection.

Comparing probability and non-probability sampling methods in ecstasy research : implications for the internet as a research tool

The usage of Ecstasy and related drug (ERD) has increasingly been the focus of epidemiological and other public health-related research. One of the more promising methods is the use of the Internet as a recruitment and survey tool.However, there remain methodological concerns and questions about representativeness. Three samples of ERD users in Melbourne, Australia surveyed in 2004 are compared in terms of a number of key demographic and drug use variables. The Internet, face-to-face, and probability
sampling methods appear to access similar but not identical groups of ERD users. Implications and limitations of the study are noted and future research is recommended.

Modeling worms propagation on probability

There are the two common means for propagating worms: scanning vulnerable computers in the network and sending out malicious email attachments. Modeling the propagation of worms can help us understand how worms spread and devise effective defence strategies. Most traditional models simulate the overall scale of infected network in each time tick, making them invalid for examining deep inside the propagation procedure among individual nodes. For this reason, this paper proposes a novel probability matrix to model the propagation mechanism of the two main classes of worms (scanning and email worms) by concentrating on the propagation probability. The objective of this paper is to access the spreading and work out an effective scheme against the worms. In order to evaluate the effects of each major component in our probability model, we implement a series of experiments for both worms. From the results, the network administrators can make decision on how to reduce the number of vulnerable nodes to a certain threshold for scanning worms, and how to immunize the highly-connected node for preventing worm's propagation for email worms.