Prediction intervals for short-term wind farm power generation forecasts

Quantification of uncertainties associated with wind power generation forecasts is essential for optimal management of wind farms and their successful integration into power systems. This paper investigates two neural network-based methods for direct and rapid construction of prediction intervals (PIs) for short-term forecasting of power generation in wind farms. The lower upper bound estimation and bootstrap methods are used to quantify uncertainties associated with forecasts. The effectiveness and efficiency of these two general methods for uncertainty quantification is examined using twenty four month data from a wind farm in Australia. PIs with a confidence level of 90% are constructed for four forecasting horizons: five, ten, fifteen, and thirty minutes. Quantitative measures are applied for objective evaluation and unbiased comparison of PI quality. Demonstrated results indicate that reliable PIs can be constructed in a short time without resorting to complicate computational methods or models. Also quantitative comparison reveals that bootstrap PIs are more suitable for short prediction horizon, and lower upper bound estimation PIs are more appropriate for longer forecasting horizons.

Older women and craft: extending educational horizons in considering wellbeing

While the social work literature is broader and more holistic than many disciplines, we undoubtedly still limit the knowledge we draw upon in ways that stifle our creativity in conceptualising and attempting to facilitate wellbeing, which flows on to limit our teaching. In particular, the significance to wellbeing of place and social space, the value of informal networks to generate support and opportunities for reciprocity, and the inherent therapeutic value of creative activity appears to be neglected. In this paper we draw upon a small Australian research study around older women and craftmaking to explore how learning from diverse disciplines, such as critical gerontology and textile making, can illuminate our understanding of wellbeing. We relate this discussion to examining notions of ageing that go beyond a focus on illness and deterioration, to enhance positive and diverse concepts of health in the context of everyday life. We then discuss the implications for social work education, with particular emphasis on ageing, and argue that by engaging with a diverse range of disciplines, we are able to think about, teach and advocate for wellbeing in more expansive and useful ways.

Craft groups: sites of friendship, empowerment, belonging and learning for older women

This article reports on a qualitative research project conducted in Victoria, Australia, with nine older women. The purpose of the research was to explore the women’s experience of involvement in craft groups, and specifically, the impact of this involvement on their sense of well-being. Traditionally the health of older people has been examined in relation to medical markers of physical well-being, and often, decline. We were interested to widen this perspective to understand the impact of social connection, belonging and ongoing learning and development on the ageing experience.

While the focus of the groups was on domestic craftwork, the process of coming together as a collective appeared to have significant bearing on the holistic health of the women involved. Consistent with feminist groupwork literature, the findings indicated that the women we interviewed experienced the group setting as affirming and generative in a number of ways. These include providing an avenue for mutual aid, addressing isolation, affirming individual and collective strength and wisdom, while acquiring new skills, and normalising concerns regarding health and family.

Depression, anxiety and metabolic syndrome in farm men and women

This research found that Depression was associated with the development of metabolic syndrome, whilst both Depression and Anxiety are associated with the maintenance of metabolic syndrome in Farm men and women. Future interventions in metabolic syndrome should consider screening for and treating these psychological factors to improve health outcomes.

Assessing the impact of HRM on dairy farm performance: an Australian study

This thesis explains the benefits of HRM policies and practices for Australian dairy farmers. A conceptual roadmap for rural industry policy-makers and farm owner-managers is presented in this thesis. It helps farmers to enhance dairy farm performance through HRM practices, which in turn would contribute to regional economic development.