102 resultados para Risk measures


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Banks are the most significant financial institutions operating within nation-state and the global financial system. These institutions are exposed to a wide range of operational risks. Disaster risk management is a critical component of the wider operational risk management. The Bank for International Settlements, in conjunction with nation-state prudential regulators, is introducing measures that will require banks to identify, measure and manage operational risks within the context of new capital adequacy requirements. An essential part of any risk management process is education and training. This paper presents a structured education and training framework that will support the achievement of banks’ disaster risk management objectives. The education and training framework comprises three specific programs: (1) an induction/awareness program targeted to all personnel, (2) a contingency planning program – a specialist program for disaster risk management personnel, and (3) an executive program designed for senior management, directors and strategic decision makers.

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The aim of this study was to determine whether items on a falls risk-assessment tool, made up of brief cognitive and physical measures that nurses use in practice, differentiated fallers and nonfallers in oncology and medical settings. A measure of leg muscle strength clearly distinguished between fallers and nonfallers, with the latter having stronger leg muscles. For nursing practice, the assessment of patients' muscle strength seems to be the most useful scale for identifying potential fallers.

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Objective: To determine the relationship between personal, hormonal and lifestyle risk factors and surgically treated benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH). Materials and methods: A population-based case–control study was conducted in Western Australia (WA) on men aged 40–75 years who were surgically treated at public and private hospitals for BPH during 2001–2002. Controls were recruited from the WA electoral roll. Cases and controls were compared with regard to demographic and lifestyle factors and proxy measures of hormonal status using logistic regression. Data were available for 398 cases and 471 controls. Results: No associations with BPH were found for family history of prostate cancer in father or brother, serving in the military in a combat area, pattern of baldness, smoking status, obesity, alcohol intake and occupational physical activity. The only inverse relationship was observed with heavy alcohol drinking (>30 g/day), however, this was not statistically significant. An increased risk of BPH, not statistically significant, was observed for British-born men compared to Australian born and for history of vasectomy. The analysis was repeated after excluding 28% of controls with moderate and severe symptoms of BPH and 7% of cases with mild symptoms prior to surgery, and our results remained essentially unchanged. Conclusions:The results suggest that there are few risk factors for BPH although perhaps country of birth, vasectomy and heavy alcohol consumption may be considered further.

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There has never been, and will never be, a randomized double-blind placebo-controlled trial demonstrating that exercise in youth, adulthood or old age reduces fragility or osteoporosis-related fractures in old age. The next level of evidence, a randomized, controlled but unblinded study with fractures as an end-point is feasible but has never been done. The basis for the belief that exercise reduces fractures is derived from lower levels of ‘evidence’, namely, retrospective and prospective observation cohort studies and case–control studies. These studies are at best hypothesis generating, never hypothesis testing. They are all subject to many systematic biases and should be interpreted with extreme scepticism. Surrogate measures of anti-fracture efficacy are the next level of evidence, such as the demonstration of a reduction in risk factors for falls, a reduction in falls, a reduction in fractures due to falls, an increase in peak bone size and mass, prevention of bone loss in midlife and restoration of bone mass and structure in old age.

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Objective: To assess the effectiveness of a year-long workplace weight loss program in reducing risk factors of coronary heart disease.

Design: A randomised, controlled study of low fat (25% of dietary energy) diet- and/or moderate exercise-induced weight loss interventions in free-living, middle-aged men. Compliance was monitored from food and activity diaries at monthly blood pressure measurement sessions. Blood was sampled and body composition determined from dual energy X-ray absorptiometry before and after 12 months.

Subjects and setting: Fifty-eight overweight men (mean [+ or -] SD age: 43.4 [+ or -] 5.7 years; BMI 29.0 [+ or -] 2.6 kg/[m.sup.2]), recruited from a national corporation, were instructed into diet (n = 18) exercise (a 21) or control (n = 19) groups over 12 months; 16 control subjects combined diet and exercise (n = 16) for the subsequent 12 months.

Main outcome measures: At 12 months, weight, total and regional fat and lean mass, dietary energy and percentage dietary fat intake, physical activity indices, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, serum insulin, blood lipids and lipoproteins.

Statistical analyses: Differences between groups were tested using analysis of variance with Scheffe post hoc test. Differences between pre- and post-intervention variables were tested using Students' paired t-tests. Pearson's correlation coefficient and univariate linear regression identified association between dependent variables, multiple stepwise regression identified specific predictors.

Results: Weight loss with either diet or exercise resulted in a reduction in systolic blood pressure (-3.3 [+ or -] 1.7%), diastolic blood pressure (-4.8 [+ or -] 1.3%) and LDL cholesterol (-3.9 [+ or -] 2.8%), a rise in HDL cholesterol (+10.0 [+ or -] 3.8%) and a change in the LDL/HDL ratio (-8.9 [+ or -] 3.5%). Abdominal fat loss (-26.8 [+ or -] 3.6% after diet; -16.6 [+ or -] 4.5% after exercise; -21.0 [+ or -] 4.7% after diet and exercise) was the strongest predictor of change in blood pressure: twenty percent abdominal fat loss predicted a percentage fall of 2.4 [+ or -] 0.05% in systolic blood pressure and 5.4 [+ or -] 0.07% in diastolic blood pressure. Greater abdominal fat loss was associated with the greatest decrease in serum insulin (P < 0.05).

Conclusion: Modest changes in diet and exercise effected by a low cost workplace-based education program achieved weight loss, loss of abdominal fat, reduced blood pressure and serum insulin and improved blood lipid concentrations. (Nutr Diet 2002;59:87-96)


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The long-term effects on cardiovascular disease risk factors of a reduced fat (RF), ad libitum diet were compared with usual diet (control, CD) in glucose intolerance individuals.

Participants were 136 adults aged ≥40 years with ‘glucose intolerance’ (2 h blood glucose 7–11.0 mmol/l) detected at a Diabetes Survey who completed at 1 year intervention study of reduced fat, ad libitum diet versus usual diet. They were re-assessed at 2, 3 and 5 years. Main outcome measures were blood pressure, serum concentrations of total cholesterol, HDL and LDL cholesterol, total cholesterol:HDL ratio, triglycerides and body weight.

The reduced fat diet lowered total cholesterol (P<0.01), LDL cholesterol (P≤0.05), total cholesterol:HDL ratio (P≤0.05), body weight (P<0.01) and systolic blood pressure (P≤0.05) initially and diastolic blood pressure (P<0.01) long-term. No significant changes occurred in HDL cholesterol or triglycerides. In the more compliant 50% of the intervention group, systolic and diastolic blood pressure levels and body weight were lower at 1, 2 and 3 years (P<0.05).

It was concluded that a reduced fat ad libitum diet has short-term benefits for cholesterol, body weight and systolic blood pressure and long-term benefits for diastolic blood pressure without significantly effecting HDL cholesterol and triglycerides despite participants regaining their lost weight.

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• PULMONARY ASPIRATION is associated with high morbidity and mortality rates. Older adult patients have been shown to be particularly at risk for aspiration.

• A RANDOMIZED CONTROLLED TRIAL was conducted to investigate the efficacy of a simple, noninvasive screening test—the monitored sip test—in identifying patients at risk for aspiration, including “silent aspirators.”

• BASED ON CLINICAL JUDGMENT using the study's outcome measures, incidence of aspiration-related lung injury was high (ie, 37.5%); however, no identification of patients at risk for aspiration occurred after either the use of the monitored sip test or routine cautious introduction of fluids during the data collection phase of the study.

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The 'Prevention Paradox' applies when low-risk individuals in a population contribute the most cases of a condition or problem behaviour by virtue of their being in the majority, thereby recommending a universal or whole of population approach to prevention. The applicability of a universal as opposed to a targeted high-risk approach to the prevention of youth substance use was examined in two studies of children and adolescents conducted in Victoria, Australia. These studies were reanalysed by recombining developmental, social and individual measures to form cumulative risk indices for substance use. In Study 1, a cross-sectional survey of students, most regular tobacco, alcohol and cannabis use by 15/16-year-olds occurred in the moderate and low-risk groups, recommending a universal prevention strategy . However, the majority of illicit drug use occurred in the highest-risk group (top 15%). Furthermore, in younger age groups both legal and illegal drug use was concentrated mainly in the highest risk group. Study 2 used data from a major longitudinal study where risk factors at around age 11/12 years were used to predict substance use at age 17/18 years. Most students who admitted involvement in frequent smoking, heavy drinking and, although to a lesser degree, cannabis were classified as low or average risk. It is concluded that universal prevention strategies are needed for late adolescent alcohol, tobacco and cannabis use and more targeted strategies for addressing harm related to early age drug use, frequent cannabis use and illegal drug use. [Stockwell T, Toumbouru JW, Letcher P, Sanson A, Bond L. Risk and protection factors for different intensities of adolescent substance use: when does the prevention paradox apply?

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Patellar tendon injury, a chronic overuse injury characterised by pain during tendon loading, is common in volleyball players and may profoundly restrict their ability to compete. This cross-sectional study investigated the association between performance factors and the presence of patellar tendon injury. These performance factors (sit and reach flexibility, ankle dorsiflexion range, jump height, ankle plantarflexor strength, years of volleyball competition and activity level) were measured in 113 male and female volleyball players. Patellar tendon health was determined by measures of pain and ultrasound imaging. The association between these performance factors and patellar tendon health (normal tendon, abnormal imaging without pain, abnormal imaging with pain) was investigated using analysis of variance. Only reduced ankle dorsiflexion range was associated with patellar tendinopathy (p < 0.05). As coupling between ankle dorsiflexion and eccentric contraction of the calf muscle is important in absorbing lower limb force when landing from a jump, reduced ankle dorsiflexion range may increase the risk of patellar tendinopathy.

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Aims. To evaluate the effectiveness of a health promotion
programme targeting dietary behaviours and physical
activity among male hourly-paid workers and to explore
demographic and attitudinal influences on dietary patterns
at baseline.
Methods. A controlled field trial compared workers at one
intervention and one control worksite. The intervention
comprised nutrition displays in the cafeteria and monthly
30-minute workshops for six months. Key outcome
measures at six and twelve-months were self-reported
dietary and lifestyle behaviours, nutrition knowledge, body
mass index (BMI), waist circumference and blood pressure.
Results. 132 men at the intervention site and 121 men at the
control site participated in the study and a high retention rate
(94% at 6-months and 89% at 12-months) was achieved. At
baseline, 40% of the total sample (253) were obese, 30% had
elevated blood pressure, 59% indicated an excessive fat intake
and 92% did not meet the recommended vegetable and fruit
intake. The intervention reduced fat intake, increased
vegetable intake and physical activity, improved nutrition
knowledge and reduced systolic blood pressure when
compared to the control site. There was no difference in
change in mean BMI or waist circumference. Reduction in
BMI was associated with reduction in fat intake.
Discussion. Low intensity workplace intervention can
significantly improve reported health behaviours and
nutrition knowledge although the impact on more
objective measures of risk was variable. A longer duration
or more intensive intervention may be required to achieve
further reduction in risk factors.

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Objectives: The objectives of this study were to trial the Postpartum Depression Predictors Inventory (PDPI) as a checklist to assist nurses in identifying women at risk of postnatal depression at 28 weeks of pregnancy, with repeated assessment at 6-8 weeks postpartum.

Methods: A prospective cohort design was used to include a population of women >20 years of age who were attending an antenatal clinic at a Victorian regional hospital. All women who attended the clinic for their 28 week visit were invited to participate over an 8-week period. Five data collection measures were included, two in the antenatal period and three at 6-8 weeks postpartum. Based on nurse consultation at both times, clinical judgement, and use of the PDPI, nurses recorded three outcomes: no identifiable risk, non-directive counselling or referral to a psychiatric nurse. The Postpartum Depression Screening Scale (PDSS), Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS) and Kanzas Marital Satisfaction Scales were used at 6-8 weeks postpartum to assess depression and marital satisfaction.

Results: 107 women were recruited in the antenatal period with 84 being followed up 8 weeks postpartum. Information will be presented on the proportion of women who were found to be depressed at both data collection periods, the intervention outcomes as determined by nurses. The use of the PDPI and PDSS as tools to assist nurses in identifying women at risk of postnatal depression will be discussed.

Conclusion: The PDPI is a useful checklist to identify women at risk of postnatal depression. The PDSS and the EPDS identified a similar number of women, although the PDSS is a much longer and more intensive scale.

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A cross-sectional study examining the oral language abilities and social skills of male juvenile offenders is described. Fifty juvenile offenders and 50 non-offending controls completed measures of language processing and production, and measures of social skill and IQ. Information about type of offending, substance use histories and learning/literacy problems was also gathered.

Young offenders performed significantly worse on all language and social skill measures, but these differences could not be accounted for on the basis of IQ. Just over half of the young offenders were identified as language impaired. This subgroup was compared with non-language impaired offending peers on a range of variables. The findings have particular implications in the areas of early intervention for high-risk boys and investigative interviewing of juvenile offenders.

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Increasingly, measures of dietary patterns have been used to capture the complex nature of dietary intake and investigate its association with health. Certain dietary patterns may be important in the prevention of chronic disease; however, there are few investigations in adolescents. The aim of this study was to describe the dietary patterns of adolescents and their associations with sociodemographic factors, nutrient intakes, and behavioral and health outcomes. Analysis was conducted using data collected in the 1995 Australian National Nutrition Survey of participants aged 12–18 y who completed a 108-item FFQ (n = 764). Dietary patterns were identified using factor analysis and associations with sociodemographic factors and behavioral and health outcomes investigated. Factor analysis revealed 3 dietary patterns labeled a fruit, salad, cereals, and fish pattern; a high fat and sugar pattern; and a vegetables pattern, which explained 11.9, 5.9, and 3.9% of the variation in food intakes, respectively. The high fat and sugar pattern was positively associated with being male (P < 0.001), the vegetables pattern was positively associated with rural region of residence (P = 0.004), and the fruit, salad, cereals, and fish pattern was inversely associated with age (P = 0.03). Dietary patterns were not associated with socioeconomic indicators. The fruit, salad, cereals, and fish pattern was inversely associated with diastolic blood pressure (P = 0.0025) after adjustment for age, sex, and physical activity in adolescents ≥16 y. This study suggests that specific dietary patterns are already evident in adolescence and a dietary pattern rich in fruit, salad, cereals, and fish pattern may be associated with diastolic blood pressure in older adolescents.

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Objective: To determine the prevalence of malnutrition in a population of elderly hospitalised patients and to explore health professionals' perceptions and awareness of signs and risks of malnutrition and treatment options available.

Subjects and design:
One hundred elderly patients and 57 health professionals from medical wards of a tertiary teaching hospital. Quantitative and qualitative study design using a validated malnutrition assessment tool (Mini Nutritional Assessment) and researcher-designed questionnaire to assess health professionals' knowledge of nutrition risk factors.

Main outcome measures: Mini Nutritional Assessment score, nutrition risk category and themes in health professionals' knowledge and awareness of malnutrition and its risk factors.

Results: Thirty per cent of patients were identified as malnourished while 61% were at risk of malnutrition. Documentation by health professionals of two major risk factors for malnutrition—recent loss of weight and appetite—were poor with only 19% and 53% of patients with actual loss of weight or appetite, respectively, identified by staff and only 7% and 9% of these patients, respectively, referred for dietetic assessment. While health professionals' knowledge of important medical risk factors for malnutrition was good, their knowledge of malnutrition risk factors such as recent loss of weight and loss of appetite was poor. Medical staff focused on biochemical factors when assessing nutrition status, while nursing staff focused on skin integrity and turgor.

Conclusion: Malnutrition in elderly hospitalised patients remains a significant problem with low rates of recognition and referral by medical and nursing staff. Considerable scope exists to develop training and education tools and to implement an appropriate nutrition screening policy to improve referral rates to dietitians.

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A growing research base supports the predictive validity of actuarial methods of risk assessment with sexual offenders. These methods use clearly defined variables with demonstrated empirical association with re-offending. The advantages of actuarial measures for screening large numbers of offenders quickly and economically are further enhanced when the variables used can be extracted from existing electronic databases. This study reports the results of applying a computerized set of historical variables with a sample of 1,133 male sexual offenders released from prison by the New Zealand Department of Corrections. Area under the curve figures of 0.70-0.78 were obtained over periods of 5 to 15 years, reflecting a significant level of association with sexual recidivism. Detected rates of re-offending across risk levels were comparable to those previously reported for the Static-99. Rates of sexual re-offending by child molesters for all sexual offences and offences against child victims are reported separately.