Linkages between property asset returns and interest rates: evidence for the UK

This paper considers the effect of short- and long-term interest rates, and interest rate spreads upon real estate index returns in the UK. Using Johansen's vector autoregressive framework, it is found that the real estate index cointegrates with the term spread, but not with the short or long rates themselves. Granger causality tests indicate that movements in short term interest rates and the spread cause movements in the returns series. However, decomposition of the forecast error variances from VAR models indicate that changes in these variables can only explain a small proportion of the overall variability of the returns, and that the effect has fully worked through after two months. The results suggest that these financial variables could potentially be used as leading indicators for real estate markets, with corresponding implications for return predictability.

Distraction control processes in free recall: benefits and costs to performance

How is semantic memory influenced by individual differences under conditions of distraction? This question was addressed by observing how visual target words—drawn from a single category—were recalled whilst ignoring spoken distracter words that were either members of the same, or members of a different (single) category. Working memory capacity (WMC) was related to disruption only with synchronous, not asynchronous, presentation and distraction was greater when the words were presented synchronously. Subsequent experiments found greater negative priming of distracters amongst individuals with higher WMC but this may be dependent on targets and distracters being comparable category exemplars. With less dominant category members as distracters, target recall was impaired – relative to control – only amongst individuals with low WMC. The results highlight the role of cognitive control resources in target-distracter selection and the individual-specific cost implications of such cognitive control.

Agriculture and the life histories of Mauritius kestrels

Habitat modification for agriculture is one of the greatest current threats to global biodiversity. Studies show large-scale population declines and short-term demographic impacts, but knowledge of the long-term effects of agriculture on individuals remains poor. This thesis examines the short- and long-term impact of agriculture on a reintroduced population of the Mauritius kestrel Falco punctatus, a tropical forest-dwelling raptor endemic to the island of Mauritius, that also utilises agricultural habitats. This population is a particularly appropriate model system, because complete life history data exists for individuals over a 22-year period, alongside detailed habitat and climate data. Agriculture has a short-term detrimental effect on Mauritius kestrel breeding success by exacerbating the seasonal decline in fledgling production. This is partly driven by the habitat-specific composition of the prey community that kestrels exploit to feed their chicks. The fledglings from agricultural territories tend to recruit in agricultural territories. This is largely due to poor natal dispersal and fine-scale spatial autocorrelation in the habitat matrix. Breeders do not respond to agriculture in the breeding territory by dispersing, unless the pair bond is broken. Therefore, individuals originating in agricultural territories tend to recruit, and remain in, agricultural territories throughout their lives. In addition to this, females from agricultural natal territories have shorter lifespans, schedule their peak reproductive output earlier in life, and exhibit more rapid senescence than non-agricultural females. The combination of this long-term effect and the adult experience of agriculture imposed by life history and environmental constraints, leads to a lower mean lifetime reproductive rate compared to females originating in non-agricultural habitats. These results demonstrate that agriculture experienced in early life has a lifelong effect on individuals. The effects can persist in time and space, with potentially delayed effects on population dynamics. These findings are important for understanding species’ responses to agricultural expansion.

The dynamic effects of age-related stereotype threat on explicit and implicit memory performance in older adults

While an awareness of age-related changes in memory may help older adults gain insight into their own cognitive abilities, it may also have a negative impact on memory performance through a mechanism of stereotype threat (ST). The consequence of ST is under-performance in abilities related to the stereotype. Here, we examined the degree to which explicit and implicit memory were affected by ST across a wide age-range. We found that explicit memory was affected by ST, but only in an Early-Aging group (mean age 67.83), and not in a Later-Aging group (mean age 84.59). Implicit memory was not affected in either the Early or Later Aging group. These results demonstrate that ST for age-related memory decline affects memory processes requiring controlled retrieval while sparing item encoding. Furthermore, this form of ST appears to dissipate as aging progresses. These results have implications for understanding psychological development across the span of aging.

A comparison of methods for treatment selection in seamless phase II/III clinical trials incorporating information on short-term endpoints

In an adaptive seamless phase II/III clinical trial interim analysis, data are used for treatment selection, enabling resources to be focused on comparison of more effective treatment(s) with a control. In this paper, we compare two methods recently proposed to enable use of short-term endpoint data for decision-making at the interim analysis. The comparison focuses on the power and the probability of correctly identifying the most promising treatment. We show that the choice of method depends on how well short-term data predict the best treatment, which may be measured by the correlation between treatment effects on short- and long-term endpoints.

Nodal variations and long-term changes in the main tides on the coasts of China

The long-term changes in the main tidal constituents (O1, K1, M2, N2, and S2) along the coasts of China and in adjacent seas are investigated based on 17 tide-gauge records covering the period 1954–2012. The observed 18.61 year nodal modulations of the diurnal constituents O1 and K1 are in agreement with the equilibrium tidal theory, except in the South China Sea. The observed modulations of the M2 and N2 amplitudes are smaller than theoretically predicted at the northern stations and larger at the southern stations. The discrepancies between the theoretically predicted nodal variations and the observations are discussed. The 8.85 year perigean cycle is identifiable in the N2 parameters at most stations, except those in the South China Sea. The radiational component of S2 contributes on average 16% of the observed S2 except in the Gulf of Tonkin, on the south coast, where it accounts for up to 65%. We confirmed the existence of nodal modulation in S2, which is stronger on the north coast. The semidiurnal tidal parameters show significant secular trends in the Bohai and Yellow Seas, on the north coast, and in the Taiwan Strait. The largest increase is found for M2 for which the amplitude increases by 4–7 mm/yr in the Yellow Sea. The potential causes for the linear trends in tidal constants are discussed.

Soil bacterial phoD gene abundance and expression in response to applied phosphorus and long-term management

Bacterial transformation of phosphorus (P) compounds in soil is largely dependent on soil microbial community function, and is therefore sensitive to anthropogenic disturbances such as fertilization or cropping systems. However, the effect of soil management on the transcription of bacterial genes that encode phosphatases, such as phoD, is largely unknown. This greenhouse study examined the effect of long-term management and P amendment on potential alkaline phosphatase (ALP) activity and phoD gene (DNA) and transcript (RNA) abundance. Soil samples (0–15 cm) were collected from the Glenlea Long-term Rotation near Winnipeg, Manitoba, to compare organic, conventional and prairie management systems. In the greenhouse, pots of soil from each management system were amended with P as either soluble mineral fertilizer or cattle manure and then planted with Italian ryegrass (Lolium multiforum). Soils from each pot were sampled for analysis immediately and after 30 and 106 days. Significant differences among the soil/P treatments were detected for inorganic P, but not the organic P in NaHCO3-extracts. At day 0, ALP activity was similar among the soil/P treatments, but was higher after 30 days for all P amendments in soil from organically managed plots. In contrast, ALP activity in soils under conventional and prairie management responded to increasing rates of manure only, with significant effects from medium and high manure application rates at 30 and 106 days. Differences in ALP activity at 30 days corresponded to the abundance of bacterial phoD genes, which were also significantly higher in soils under organic management. However, this correlation was not significant for transcript abundance. Next-generation sequencing allowed the identification of 199 unique phoD operational taxonomic units (OTUs) from the metagenome (soil DNA) and 35 unique OTUs from the metatranscriptome (soil RNA), indicating that a subset of phoD genes was being transcribed in all soils.