Modelling and Analysis of Recurrent Event Data with Multiple Causes

This thesis Entitled “modelling and analysis of recurrent event data with multiple causes.Survival data is a term used for describing data that measures the time to occurrence of an event.In survival studies, the time to occurrence of an event is generally referred to as lifetime.Recurrent event data are commonly encountered in longitudinal studies when individuals are followed to observe the repeated occurrences of certain events. In many practical situations, individuals under study are exposed to the failure due to more than one causes and the eventual failure can be attributed to exactly one of these causes.The proposed model was useful in real life situations to study the effect of covariates on recurrences of certain events due to different causes.In Chapter 3, an additive hazards model for gap time distributions of recurrent event data with multiple causes was introduced. The parameter estimation and asymptotic properties were discussed .In Chapter 4, a shared frailty model for the analysis of bivariate competing risks data was presented and the estimation procedures for shared gamma frailty model, without covariates and with covariates, using EM algorithm were discussed. In Chapter 6, two nonparametric estimators for bivariate survivor function of paired recurrent event data were developed. The asymptotic properties of the estimators were studied. The proposed estimators were applied to a real life data set. Simulation studies were carried out to find the efficiency of the proposed estimators.

Modelling and Analysis of Some Time Series

The thesis deals with some of the non-linear Gaussian and non-Gaussian time models and mainly concentrated in studying the properties and application of a first order autoregressive process with Cauchy marginal distribution. In this thesis some of the non-linear Gaussian and non-Gaussian time series models and mainly concentrated in studying the properties and application of a order autoregressive process with Cauchy marginal distribution. Time series relating to prices, consumptions, money in circulation, bank deposits and bank clearing, sales and profit in a departmental store, national income and foreign exchange reserves, prices and dividend of shares in a stock exchange etc. are examples of economic and business time series. The thesis discuses the application of a threshold autoregressive(TAR) model, try to fit this model to a time series data. Another important non-linear model is the ARCH model, and the third model is the TARCH model. The main objective here is to identify an appropriate model to a given set of data. The data considered are the daily coconut oil prices for a period of three years. Since it is a price data the consecutive prices may not be independent and hence a time series based model is more appropriate. In this study the properties like ergodicity, mixing property and time reversibility and also various estimation procedures used to estimate the unknown parameters of the process.

Modelling and Analysis of Bivariate Lifetime Data using Reversed Hazard Rates

Department of Statistics, Cochin University of Science and Technology

Qualitative Air Flow Modelling and Analysis of Data Centre Air Conditioning as Multiple Jet Array

Data centre is a centralized repository,either physical or virtual,for the storage,management and dissemination of data and information organized around a particular body and nerve centre of the present IT revolution.Data centre are expected to serve uniinterruptedly round the year enabling them to perform their functions,it consumes enormous energy in the present scenario.Tremendous growth in the demand from IT Industry made it customary to develop newer technologies for the better operation of data centre.Energy conservation activities in data centre mainly concentrate on the air conditioning system since it is the major mechanical sub-system which consumes considerable share of the total power consumption of the data centre.The data centre energy matrix is best represented by power utilization efficiency(PUE),which is defined as the ratio of the total facility power to the IT equipment power.Its value will be greater than one and a large value of PUE indicates that the sub-systems draw more power from the facility and the performance of the data will be poor from the stand point of energy conservation. PUE values of 1.4 to 1.6 are acievable by proper design and management techniques.Optimizing the air conditioning systems brings enormous opportunity in bringing down the PUE value.The air conditioning system can be optimized by two approaches namely,thermal management and air flow management.thermal management systems are now introduced by some companies but they are highly sophisticated and costly and do not catch much attention in the thumb rules.

Characterization of Wastes from Natural Rubber and Rubber Wood Processing Industries and Their Utilization for Biomethanation

The research work which was carried out to characterization of wastes from natural rubber and rubber wood processing industries and their utilization for biomethanation. Environmental contamination is an inevitable consequence of human activity. The liquid and solid wastes from natural rubber based industries were: characterized and their use for the production of biogas investigated with a view to conserve conventional energy, and to mitigate environmental degradation.Rubber tree (flevea brasiliensis Muell. Arg.), is the most important commercial source of natural rubber and in india. Recently, pollution from the rubber processing factories has become very serious due to the introduction of modern methods and centralized group processing practices.The possibility of the use of spent slurry as organic manure is discussed.l0 percent level of PSD, the activity of cellulolytic, acid producing,proteolytic, lipolytic and methanogenic bacteria were more in the middle stage of methanogenesis.the liquid wastes from rubber processing used as diluents in combination with PSD, SPE promoted more biogas production with high methane content in the gas.The factors that favour methane production like TS, VS, cellulose and hemicellulose degradation were favoured in this treatment which led to higher methane biogenesis.The results further highlight ways and means to use agricultural wastes as alternative sources of energy.

Qualitative air flow modelling and analysis of data centre air conditioning as multiple jet array

This work identifies the importance of plenum pressure on the performance of the data centre. The present methodology followed in the industry considers the pressure drop across the tile as a dependant variable, but it is shown in this work that this is the only one independent variable that is responsible for the entire flow dynamics in the data centre, and any design or assessment procedure must consider the pressure difference across the tile as the primary independent variable. This concept is further explained by the studies on the effect of dampers on the flow characteristics. The dampers have found to introduce an additional pressure drop there by reducing the effective pressure drop across the tile. The effect of damper is to change the flow both in quantitative and qualitative aspects. But the effect of damper on the flow in the quantitative aspect is only considered while using the damper as an aid for capacity control. Results from the present study suggest that the use of dampers must be avoided in data centre and well designed tiles which give required flow rates must be used in the appropriate locations. In the present study the effect of hot air recirculation is studied with suitable assumptions. It identifies that, the pressure drop across the tile is a dominant parameter which governs the recirculation. The rack suction pressure of the hardware along with the pressure drop across the tile determines the point of recirculation in the cold aisle. The positioning of hardware in the racks play an important role in controlling the recirculation point. The present study is thus helpful in the design of data centre air flow, based on the theory of jets. The air flow can be modelled both quantitatively and qualitatively based on the results.

“Qualitative Air Flow Modelling And Analysis Of Data Centre Air Conditioning As Multiple Jet Array

In the present study the effect of hot air recirculation is studied with suitable assumptions. It identifies that, the pressure drop across the tile is a dominant parameter which governs the recirculation. The rack suction pressure of the hardware along with the pressure drop across the tile determines the point of recirculation in the cold aisle. The positioning of hardware in the racks play an important role in controlling the recirculation point. The present study is thus helpful in the design of data centre air flow, based on the theory of jets. The air flow can be modelled both quantitatively and qualitatively based on the results

Performance of Supply Chain when using selected Coordination Mechanisms

Coordination among supply chain members is essential for better supply chain performance. An effective method to improve supply chain coordination is to implement proper coordination mechanisms. The primary objective of this research is to study the performance of a multi-level supply chain while using selected coordination mechanisms separately, and in combination, under lost sale and back order cases. The coordination mechanisms used in this study are price discount, delay in payment and different types of information sharing. Mathematical modelling and simulation modelling are used in this study to analyse the performance of the supply chain using these mechanisms. Initially, a three level supply chain consisting of a supplier, a manufacturer and a retailer has been used to study the combined effect of price discount and delay in payment on the performance (profit) of supply chain using mathematical modelling. This study showed that implementation of individual mechanisms improves the performance of the supply chain compared to ‘no coordination’. When more than one mechanism is used in combination, performance in most cases further improved. The three level supply chain considered in mathematical modelling was then extended to a three level network supply chain consisting of a four retailers, two wholesalers, and a manufacturer with an infinite part supplier. The performance of this network supply chain was analysed under both lost sale and backorder cases using simulation modelling with the same mechanisms: ‘price discount and delay in payment’ used in mathematical modelling. This study also showed that the performance of the supply chain is significantly improved while using combination of mechanisms as obtained earlier. In this study, it is found that the effect (increase in profit) of ‘delay in payment’ and combination of ‘price discount’ & ‘delay in payment’ on SC profit is relatively high in the case of lost sale. Sensitivity analysis showed that order cost of the retailer plays a major role in the performance of the supply chain as it decides the order quantity of the other players in the supply chain in this study. Sensitivity analysis also showed that there is a proportional change in supply chain profit with change in rate of return of any player. In the case of price discount, elasticity of demand is an important factor to improve the performance of the supply chain. It is also found that the change in permissible delay in payment given by the seller to the buyer affects the SC profit more than the delay in payment availed by the buyer from the seller. In continuation of the above, a study on the performance of a four level supply chain consisting of a manufacturer, a wholesaler, a distributor and a retailer with ‘information sharing’ as coordination mechanism, under lost sale and backorder cases, using a simulation game with live players has been conducted. In this study, best performance is obtained in the case of sharing ‘demand and supply chain performance’ compared to other seven types of information sharing including traditional method. This study also revealed that effect of information sharing on supply chain performance is relatively high in the case of lost sale than backorder. The in depth analysis in this part of the study showed that lack of information sharing need not always be resulting in bullwhip effect. Instead of bullwhip effect, lack of information sharing produced a huge hike in lost sales cost or backorder cost in this study which is also not favorable for the supply chain. Overall analysis provided the extent of improvement in supply chain performance under different cases. Sensitivity analysis revealed useful insights about the decision variables of supply chain and it will be useful for the supply chain management practitioners to take appropriate decisions.

A Study of Single Stage Semi‐Dry Anaerobic Digestion of Organic Fraction of Municipal Solid Waste

Solid waste generation is a natural consequence of human activity and is increasing along with population growth, urbanization and industrialization. Improper disposal of the huge amount of solid waste seriously affects the environment and contributes to climate change by the release of greenhouse gases. Practicing anaerobic digestion (AD) for the organic fraction of municipal solid waste (OFMSW) can reduce emissions to environment and thereby alleviate the environmental problems together with production of biogas, an energy source, and digestate, a soil amendment. The amenability of substrate for biogasification varies from substrate to substrate and different environmental and operating conditions such as pH, temperature, type and quality of substrate, mixing, retention time etc. Therefore, the purpose of this research work is to develop feasible semi-dry anaerobic digestion process for the treatment of OFMSW from Kerala, India for potential energy recovery and sustainable waste management. This study was carried out in three phases in order to reach the research purpose. In the first phase, batch study of anaerobic digestion of OFMSW was carried out for 100 days at 32°C (mesophilic digestion) for varying substrate concentrations. The aim of this study was to obtain the optimal conditions for biogas production using response surface methodology (RSM). The parameters studied were initial pH, substrate concentration and total organic carbon (TOC). The experimental results showed that the linear model terms of initial pH and substrate concentration and the quadratic model terms of the substrate concentration and TOC had significant individual effect (p < 0.05) on biogas yield. However, there was no interactive effect between these variables (p > 0.05). The optimum conditions for maximizing the biogas yield were a substrate concentration of 99 g/l, an initial pH of 6.5 and TOC of 20.32 g/l. AD of OFMSW with optimized substrate concentration of 99 g/l [Total Solid (TS)-10.5%] is a semi-dry digestion system .Under the optimized condition, the maximum biogas yield was 53.4 L/kg VS (volatile solid).. In the second phase, semi-dry anaerobic digestion of organic solid wastes was conducted for 45 days in a lab-scale batch experiment for substrate concentration of 100 g/l (TS-11.2%) for investigating the start-up performances under thermophilic condition (50°C). The performance of the reactor was evaluated by measuring the daily biogas production and calculating the degradation of total solids and the total volatile solids. The biogas yield at the end of the digestion was 52.9 L/kg VS for the substrate concentration of 100 g/l. About 66.7% of volatile solid degradation was obtained during the digestion. A first order model based on the availability of substrate as the limiting factor was used to perform the kinetic studies of batch anaerobic digestion system. The value of reaction rate constant, k, obtained was 0.0249 day-1. A laboratory bench scale reactor with a capacity of 36.8 litres was designed and fabricated to carry out the continuous anaerobic digestion of OFMSW in the third phase. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the performance of the digester at total solid concentration of 12% (semi-dry) under mesophlic condition (32°C). The digester was operated with different organic loading rates (OLRs) and constant retention time. The performance of the reactor was evaluated using parameters such as pH, volatile fatty acid (VFA), alkalinity, chemical oxygen demand (COD), TOC and ammonia-N as well as biogas yield. During the reactor’s start-up period, the process is stable and there is no inhibition occurred and the average biogas production was 14.7 L/day. The reactor was fed in continuous mode with different OLRs (3.1,4.2 and 5.65 kg VS/m3/d) at constant retention time of 30 days. The highest volatile solid degradation of 65.9%, with specific biogas production of 368 L/kg VS fed was achieved with OLR of 3.1 kg VS/m3/d. Modelling and simulation of anaerobic digestion of OFMSW in continuous operation is done using adapted Anaerobic Digestion Model No 1 (ADM1).The proposed model, which has 34 dynamic state variables, considers both biochemical and physicochemical processes and contains several inhibition factors including three gas components. The number of processes considered is 28. The model is implemented in Matlab® version 7.11.0.584(R2010b). The model based on adapted ADM1 was tested to simulate the behaviour of a bioreactor for the mesophilic anaerobic digestion of OFMSW at OLR of 3.1 kg VS/m3/d. ADM1 showed acceptable simulating results.

Studies on new processing aids and other compounding ingredients in special purpose rubbers

In the first part of the study we probed the effectiveness of rice bran oil as a multipurpose compounding ingredient for nitrile (NBR) and chloroprene (CR) rubbers. This oil has already been successfully employed in the compounding of NR and SBR in this laboratory.In this context we thought it worthwhile to try this oil in the polar rubbers viz, NBR and CR also. The principle of like dissolves like as applicable to solvents is equally applicable while selecting a plasticiser, elastomer combination. Because of the compatibility considerations polar plasticisers are preferred for polar rubbers like NBR and CR. Although plasticisation is a physical phenomenon and no chemical reaction is involved, the chemical structure of plasticisers determines how much physical attraction there is between the rubber and the plasticiser. In this context it is interesting to note that the various fatty acids present in rice bran oil have a long paraffinic chain, characteristic of waxes, with an acid group at the end of the molecule. The paraffinic end of the molecule contributes lubricating effects and limits compatibility whereas the acid end group contributes some polarity and is also chemically reactive. Because of absorption of acid group on the surface of pigments, these acids will have active pigment wetting characteristics also. These factors justifies the role of rice bran oil as a co-activator and lubricating agent for NBR and CR. In fact in our study we successfully replaced stearic acid as co-activator and aromatic oillDOP as processing aid for CR and NBR with rice bran oil.This part of the study has got special significance in the fact that rubber industry now heavily depends on petroleum industry for process oils. The conventional process oils like aromatic, naphthenic and paraffinic oils are increasingly becoming costlier, as its resources in nature are fast depleting. Moreover aromatic process oils are reported to be carcinogenic because of the presence of higher levels of polycyclic aromatic compounds in these oils.As a result of these factors, a great amount research is going on world over for newer processing aids which are cost effective, nontoxic and performanance wise at par with the conventional ones used in the rubber industry. Trials with vegetable oils in this direction is worth trying.Antioxidants are usually added to the rubber compound to minimise ageing effects from heat, light, oxygen etc. As rice bran oil contains significant amount of tocopherols and oryzanol which are natural antioxidants, we replaced a phenolic antioxidant like styrenated phenol (SP) from the compound recipe of both the rubbers with RBO and ascertained whether this oil could function in the role of antioxidant as well.Preparation and use of epoxidised rice bran oil as plasticiser has already been reported.The crude rice bran oil having an iodine value of 92 was epoxidised in this laboratory using peracetic acid in presence of sulphuric acid as catalyst. The epoxy content of the epoxidised oil was determined volumetrically by treating a known weight of the oil with excess HCI and back titrating the residual HCI with standard alkali solution. The epoxidised oil having an epoxy content of 3.4% was tried in the compounding of NBR and CR as processing aids. And results of these investigations are also included in this chapter. In the second part of the study we tried how RBO/ERBO could perform when used as a processing aid in place of aromatic oil in the compounding of black filled NRCR blends. Elastomers cannot have all the properties required for a particular applications, so it is common practice in rubber industry to blend two elastomers to have desired property for the resulting blend.In this RBO/ERBO was tried as a processing aid for plasticisation, dispersion of fillers, and vulcanisation of black filled NR-CR blends.Aromatic oil was used as a control. The results of our study indicate that these oils could function as a processing aid and when added together with carbon black function as a cure accelerator also.PVC is compatible with nitrile rubber in all proportions, provided NBR has an acrylonitrile content of 25 to 40%. Lower or higher ACN content in NBR makes it incompatible with PVC.PVC is usually blended with NBR at high temperatures. In order to reduce torque during mixing, additional amounts of plasticisers like DOP are added. The plasticiser should be compatible both with PVC and NBR so as to get a homogeneous blend. Epoxidised soyaben oil is reported to have been used in the compounding of PVC as it can perfonn both as an efficient plasticiser and heat stabilizer.At present DOP constitute the largest consumed plasticiser in the PVC compounding. The migration of this plasticiser from food packaging materials made of PVC poses great health hazards as this is harmful to human body. In such a scenario we also thought it worthwhile to see whether DOP could be replaced by rice bran oil in the compounding of NBR-PVC blends Different blends of NBR-PVC were prepared with RBO and were vulcanized using sulphur and conventional accelerators. The various physical and mechanical properties of the vulcanisates were evaluated and compared with those prepared with DOP as the control plasticiser. Epoxidised rice bran oil was also tried as plasticiser for the preparation of NBR-PVC blends. A comparison of the processability and cure characteristics of the different blends prepared with DOP and ERBO showed that ERBO based blends have better processability and lower cure time values. However the elastographic maximum torque values are higher for the DOP based blends. Almost all of the physical properties evaluated are found to be slightly better for the DOP based blends over the ERBO based ones. However a notable feature of the ERBO based blends is the better percentage retention of elongation at break values after ageing over the DOP based blends. The results of these studies using rice bran oil and its epoxidised variety indicated that they could be used as efficient plasticisers in place of DOP and justifies their role as novel, nontoxic, and cheap plasticisers for NBR-PVC blends.

Modified Block Adaptive Predictive Coder For Speech Processing

This thesis investigated the potential use of Linear Predictive Coding in speech communication applications. A Modified Block Adaptive Predictive Coder is developed, which reduces the computational burden and complexity without sacrificing the speech quality, as compared to the conventional adaptive predictive coding (APC) system. For this, changes in the evaluation methods have been evolved. This method is as different from the usual APC system in that the difference between the true and the predicted value is not transmitted. This allows the replacement of the high order predictor in the transmitter section of a predictive coding system, by a simple delay unit, which makes the transmitter quite simple. Also, the block length used in the processing of the speech signal is adjusted relative to the pitch period of the signal being processed rather than choosing a constant length as hitherto done by other researchers. The efficiency of the newly proposed coder has been supported with results of computer simulation using real speech data. Three methods for voiced/unvoiced/silent/transition classification have been presented. The first one is based on energy, zerocrossing rate and the periodicity of the waveform. The second method uses normalised correlation coefficient as the main parameter, while the third method utilizes a pitch-dependent correlation factor. The third algorithm which gives the minimum error probability has been chosen in a later chapter to design the modified coder The thesis also presents a comparazive study beh-cm the autocorrelation and the covariance methods used in the evaluaiicn of the predictor parameters. It has been proved that the azztocorrelation method is superior to the covariance method with respect to the filter stabf-it)‘ and also in an SNR sense, though the increase in gain is only small. The Modified Block Adaptive Coder applies a switching from pitch precitzion to spectrum prediction when the speech segment changes from a voiced or transition region to an unvoiced region. The experiments cont;-:ted in coding, transmission and simulation, used speech samples from .\£=_‘ajr2_1a:r1 and English phrases. Proposal for a speaker reecgnifion syste: and a phoneme identification system has also been outlized towards the end of the thesis.

Hybrid Background Subtraction in Video using Bi-level CodeBook Model

Detection of Objects in Video is a highly demanding area of research. The Background Subtraction Algorithms can yield better results in Foreground Object Detection. This work presents a Hybrid CodeBook based Background Subtraction to extract the foreground ROI from the background. Codebooks are used to store compressed information by demanding lesser memory usage and high speedy processing. This Hybrid method which uses Block-Based and Pixel-Based Codebooks provide efficient detection results; the high speed processing capability of block based background subtraction as well as high Precision Rate of pixel based background subtraction are exploited to yield an efficient Background Subtraction System. The Block stage produces a coarse foreground area, which is then refined by the Pixel stage. The system’s performance is evaluated with different block sizes and with different block descriptors like 2D-DCT, FFT etc. The Experimental analysis based on statistical measurements yields precision, recall, similarity and F measure of the hybrid system as 88.74%, 91.09%, 81.66% and 89.90% respectively, and thus proves the efficiency of the novel system.