The analysis and mitigation of risks in FMCG supply chain: the case of British American Tobacco Eastern Europe

This work investigates the Bullwhip Effect, which is one of the most important phenomena in contemporary supply chain management. The author uses most recent theoretical apparatus to analyze operational activities of a leading FMCG company British American Tobacco Eastern Europe. This paper investigates and describes the process in BAT supply chain management and considers the impact of the Bullwhip Effect together with the potential risks threatening company's operations. Emergence of the Bullwhip Effect leads to supply chain inefficiency. This paper contains methodological supply chain risk mitigation recommendations, description of a real case study and an analytical study of internal and external supply chain processes

Fostering product innovation by learning through exporting in Eastern Europe

This study discusses the importance of learning through the process of exporting, and more specifically how such a process can enhance the product innovativeness of a company. The purpose of this study is to investigate the appropriate sources of learning and to suggest an interactive framework for how new knowledge from exporting markets can materialize itself into product innovation. The theoretical background of the study was constructed from academic literature, which is related to concepts of learning by exporting, along with sources for learning in the market and new product development. The empirical research in the form of a qualitative case study was based on four semi-structured interviews and secondary data from the case company official site. The interview data was collected between March and April 2015 from case company employees who directly work in the department of exporting and product development. The method of thematic analysis was used to categorize and interpret the collected data. What was conclusively discovered, was that the knowledge from an exporting market can be an incentive for product innovation, especially an incremental one. Foreign customers and competitors as important sources for new knowledge contribute to the innovative process. Foreign market competitors’ influence on product improvements was high only when the competitor was a market leader or held a colossal market share, while the customers’ influence is always high. Therefore, involving a foreign customer in the development of a new product is vital to a company that is interested in benefiting from what is learned through exporting. The interactive framework, which is based on the theoretical background and findings of the study, suggests that exporting companies can raise their product innovativeness by utilizing newly gained knowledge from exporting markets. Except for input, in the form of sources of learning, and product innovation as an output, the framework contains a process of knowledge transfer, the absorptive capacity of a firm and a new product development process. In addition, the framework and the findings enhance the understanding of the disputed relationship between an exporting experience and product innovation. However, future research is needed in order to fully understand all the elements of the framework, such as the absorptive capacity of a firm as well as more case companies to be processed in order to increase the generalization of the framework

Return and volatility linkages between the S&P 500 and emerging stock markets in Eastern Europe

The aim of this thesis is to research mean return spillovers as well as volatility spillovers from the S&P 500 stock index in the USA to selected stock markets in the emerging economies in Eastern Europe between 2002 and 2014. The sample period has been divided into smaller subsamples, which enables taking different market conditions as well as the unification of the World’s capital markets during the financial crisis into account. Bivariate VAR(1) models are used to analyze the mean return spillovers while the volatility linkages are analyzed through the use of bivariate BEKK-GARCH(1,1) models. The results show both constant volatility pooling within the S&P 500 as well as some statistically significant spillovers of both return and volatility from the S&P 500 to the Eastern European emerging stock markets. Moreover, some of the results indicate that the volatility spillovers have increased as time has passed, indicating unification of global stock markets.

Utopia, vieraantuminen ja itäisen Euroopan muutos

Abstract: Utopia, alienation and change in Eastern Europe

Logistics Development in Finnish and Swedish Companies with Respect of Russia and Four Asian Countries: Traffic Flow and Warehousing Analysis from Current Situation and Likely Development Trends

On selvää, että tänä päivänä maailmankaupan painopiste on hiljalleen siirtymässä Aasiaan ja varsinkin Kiina on ollut huomion keskipisteessä. Erityisesti valmistavien yritysten perspektiivistä muutos on ollut merkittävä ja tämä tosiasia kasvattaa yrityksissä paineita luoda kustannustehokkaita toimitusketjuratkaisuja,joiden vasteaika on mahdollisimman lyhyt. Samaan aikaan kun tarkastellaan kuljetusvirtoja, huomattaan että maanosien välillä on suuri epätasapaino. Tämä on enimmäkseen seurausta suurten globaalisti toimivien yritysten toimitusketjustrategioista. Useimmat näistä toimijoista optimoivat verkostonsa turvautumalla 'paikalliseen hankintaan', jotta he voisivat paremmin hallita toimitusketjujaan ja saada näitä reagointiherkimmiksi. Valmistusyksiköillä onkin monesti Euroopassa pakko käyttää kalliita raaka-aineita ja puolivalmisteita. Kriittisiksi tekijöiksi osoittautuvat kuljetus- ja varastointikustannukset sekä näiden seurauksena hukka-aika, joka aiheutuu viivästyksistä. Voidakseen saavuttaa optimiratkaisun, on tehtävä päätös miten tuotteet varastoidaan: keskitetysti tai hajautetusti ja integroida tämä valinta sopivien kuljetusmuotojen kanssa. Aasiasta Pohjois-Eurooppaan on halpaa käyttää merikuljetusta, mutta operaatio kestää hyvin pitkään - joissain tapauksessa jopa kahdeksan viikkoa. Toisaalta lentokuljetus on sekä kallis että rajoittaa siirrettävien tuotteiden eräkokoa.On olemassa kolmaskin vaihtoehto, josta voisi olla ratkaisuksi: rautatiekuljetus on halvempi kuin lentokuljetus ja vasteajat ovat lyhyemmät kuin merikuljetuksissa. Tässä tutkimuksessa tilannetta selvitetään kyselyllä, joka suunnattiin Suomessa ja Ruotsissa toimiville yrityksille. Tuloksien perusteella teemme johtopäätökset siitä, mitkä kuljetusmuotojen markkinaosuudet tulevat olemaan tulevaisuudessa sekä luomme kuvan kuljetusvirroista Euroopan, Venäjän, Etelä-Korea, Intian, Kiinan ja Japanin välillä. Samalla on tarkoitus ennakoida sitä, miten tarkastelun kohteena olevat yritykset aikovat kehittää kuljetuksiaan ja varastointiaan tulevien vuosien aikana. Tulosten perusteella näyttää siltä, että seuraavan viiden vuoden kuluessa kuljetuskustannukset eivät merkittävissä määrin tule muuttuman ja meri- sekä kumipyöräkuljetukset pysyvät suosituimpina vaihtoehtoina.Kuitenkin lentokuljetusten osuus laskee hiukan, kun taas rautatiekuljetusten painotus kasvaa. Tulokset paljastavat, että Kiinassa ja Venäjällä kuljetettava konttimäärä kasvaa; Intiassa tulos on saman suuntainen, joskaan ei niin voimakas. Analyysimme mukaan kuljetusvirtoihin liittyvä epätasapaino säilyy Venäjän kuljetusten suhteen: yritykset jatkavat tulevaisuudessakin vientiperusteista strategiaansa. Varastoinnin puolella tunnistamme pienemmän muutoksen, jonka mukaan pienikokoisten varastojen määrät todennäköisesti vähenevät tulevaisuudessa ja kiinnostus isoja varastoja kohtaan lisääntyy. Tässä kohtaa on mainittava, että suomalaisilla yrityksillä on enemmän varastoja Keski- ja Itä-Euroopassa verrattuna ruotsalaisiin toimijoihin, jotka keskittyvät selkeämmin Länsi-Euroopan maihin. Varastoja yrityksillä on molemmissa tapaukissa paljolti kotimaassaan. Valitessaan varastojensa sijoituskohteita yritykset painottavat seuraavia kriteereitä: alhaiset jakelukustannukset, kokoamispaikan/valmistustehtaan läheisyys, saapuvan logistiikan integroitavuus ja saatavilla olevat logistiikkapalvelut. Tutkimuksemme lopussa päädymme siihen, että varastojen sijoituspaikat eivät muutu satamien rakenteen ja liikenneyhteyksien takia kovinkaan nopeasti.

Lisäpoltolla varustetun maakaasukombivoimalaitoksen optimointi.

Voimalaitoksen sisäisellä optimoinnilla pyritään parantamaan prosessia ja lisäämään voimalaitoskonseptin kilpailukykyä energiamarkkinoilla. Tässä työssä optimoitiin lisäpoltolla varustettua, sähköteholtaan noin 125 MW:n maakaasukompivoimalaitosta. Työ on osa Fortum Engineering Oy:n konseptikehitysohjelmaa. Kaasuturbiinin savukaasun sisältämää happea voidaan hyödyntää lämmöntal-teenottokattilan savukaasukanavaan sijoitetussa lisäpoltossa. Lisäpoltolla saadaan nostettua savukaasun lämpötilaa ja lisättyä tuotetun tuorehöyryn määrää. Työssä tutkittiin lisäpolton kannattavuutta ja sen vaikutusta voimalaitoksen mitoitukseen. Lisäpolton lämpötila valitaan teknisten rajoitusten perusteella, jolloin siitä aiheutuvat investointikustannukset eivät nouse merkittäviksi. Optimointimenetelmä pohjautuu Fortum Oyj:ssä kehitetyllä voimalaitossimulaattori Solvolla laskettujen lämpötaseiden ja asiantuntija-arvioihin perustuvien investointikustannuskaavojen käyttöön. Taloudelliset lähtöarvot on valittu Itä-Euroopan markkinatilanteen mukaisiksi. Kannattavuuslaskelmat perustuvat nykyarvomenetelmään, jossa investointikustannuksille ja sähkön ja kaukolämmön myynnistä saaduille tuotoille lasketaan nykyarvo. Teknisten rajoitusten puitteissa suurimman nykyarvon antava tapaus on aina kunkin tutkittavan prosessisuureen optimitapaus. Tutkittavia prosessisuureita voivat olla esimerkiksi tuorehöyryn tila-arvot. Eräs työn tavoitteista oli selvittää lämmöntalteenottokattilan painetasojen optimaalinen lukumäärä. Lisäpoltto todettiin lämmitysvoimalaitoksella kannattavaksi ratkaisuksi kun nyt optimoitua laitosta verrattiin ilman lisäpolttoa mitoitettuun vastaavanlaiseen laitokseen. Kannattavuuslaskelmille tehtiin herkkyystarkastelut, joiden avulla tutkittiin mitoitetun konseptin herkkyyttä taloudellisten lähtöarvojen muutoksille. Herkkyysanalyysin avulla optimoitua voimalaitoskonseptia voidaan hyödyntää suuremmalla taloudellisten lähtöarvojen vaihteluvälillä.

External Location Factors of Finnish Direct Investment in Central and Eastern European Transitional Economies

Tutkimuksen päätavoitteena oli selvittää suomalaisten suorien investointien maan valintaan vaikuttavia tekijöitä Itä- ja Keski-Euroopan kymmenessä siirtymätaloudessa. Empiirisessä osuudessa tarkasteltiin suomalaisten yritysten tärkeimpiä sijaintitekijöitä alueella ja yrityskohtaisten tekijöiden vaikutusta sijaintitekijöihin. Tutkimuksessa selvitettiin myös yritysten päämotiiveja investoida maihin. Laaditun investointikriteeristön mukaan maat pystyttiin laittamaan paremmuusjärjestykseen suomalaisen investoijan kannalta. Empiirisen osuuden aineisto kerättiin postikyselylomakkeella yrityksiltä, joilla on tai jotka ovat suunnittelemassa investointeja näihin maihin. Tutkimusote oli kvantitatiivinen. Tutkimustulokset osoittavat, että suomalaiset investoijat valitsevat Itä- ja Keski-Euroopan maan investointikohteeksi pääasiassa markkinapotentiaalin ja edullisten kustannusten perusteella. Myös infrastruktuuri vaikuttaa maan valintaan. Eri aloilla toimivien yritysten sijaintitekijöiden painotuksissa havaittiin eroja. Yrityksen koko ja päämotiivi vaikuttivat sijaintitekijöiden painotuksiin. Investointikriteereiden mukaan kaksi parasta investointimaata suomalaisille investoijille ovat Puola ja Viro. Vertailtaessa investointikriteereitä toteutuneisiin investointeihin voidaan todeta, että suomalaiset investoijat eivät ole hyödyntäneet investoinneilla saatavia etuja kaikissa kohdemaissa.

Cargo Traffic on the Helsinki-Tallinn Route

The twin-city model has found to increase economical activity and well-being. The similar economical, social and cultural background of Finland and Estonia as well as the EU integration give good preconditions to create a twin-city of Helsinki and Tallinn. The relatively long distance between Helsinki and Tallinn is challenging. Therefore, good transport infrastructure and functioning connections are required to form a twin-city of Helsinki and Tallinn. The connections between these cities can be considered also in broader perspective than only from the viewpoint of the twin-city concept. New markets areas have been emerged in Europe due to collapse of planned economy and integration of Europe. Also the transport routes to the markets are changing. The Hel-sinki-Tallinn sea route can be considered as a fast route to the new markets in the Cen-tral and Eastern Europe. The Helsinki-Tallinn sea route is also a potential route to the Western European markets. This study provides an analysis of transport and cargo flows between Finland and Esto-nia for regional and local planners. The main purpose of the study is to clarify the pre-sent situation of the seaborne cargo flows on the Helsinki-Tallinn route and how the cargo flows will develop in the future. The study focuses on the following thematic enti-ties: the Finnish and Estonian seaborne transport system and cargo flows, the structure and volume of the cargo flows on the Helsinki-Tallinn route, the hinterland cargo flows on the Helsinki-Tallinn route and the transport methods used on the Helsinki-Tallinn route. The study was carried out as a desk research, a statistical analysis and an inter-view study during the spring–autumn 2011. The study reveals that during the period 2002–2010 the volume of the seaborne cargo traffic between Finland and Estonia has increased significantly while the trend of the trade volume between Finland and Estonia has remained nearly constant. This indicates that the route via Estonia is increasingly used in the Finnish foreign trade. Because the ports of Helsinki and Tallinn are the main ports in the cargo traffic between Finland and Estonia, the role of the Helsinki-Tallinn route as a sea leg in the hinterland connections of Finland has increased. The growth of the cargo volume on the Helsinki-Tallinn route was estimated to continue on the annual level of 10 % during the next couple of years. In the long run the growth of the cargo volumes depends on the economical and indus-trial development of the former Eastern European countries. If the IMO’s sulphur regu-lations will come in force, the Helsinki-Tallinn route will become one of the main routes also to the Western European markets, besides of the route via Sweden. The study also shows that the fast and reliable connections year round on the Helsinki-Tallinn route have made it possible for service and logistics companies to reconsider their logistics strategies in a new way in the both side of the Gulf of Finland. Anyway, the ropax concept is seen as the only economical profitable solution on the Helsinki-Tallinn route because cargo and passenger traffic are supporting each other. The trucks (vehicle combinations) will remain the main mode of transport on the Helsinki-Tallinn route because general cargo is the main commodity on the route. IMO’s sulphur regula-tions and the changes in the structure of the Finnish industry may create prerequisites for rail road transport in the hinterland connections of Finland. The twin-city model has found to increase economical activity and well-being. The similar economical, social and cultural background of Finland and Estonia as well as the EU integration give good preconditions to create a twin-city of Helsinki and Tallinn. The relatively long distance between Helsinki and Tallinn is challenging. Therefore, good transport infrastructure and functioning connections are required to form a twin-city of Helsinki and Tallinn. The connections between these cities can be considered also in broader perspective than only from the viewpoint of the twin-city concept. New markets areas have been emerged in Europe due to collapse of planned economy and integration of Europe. Also the transport routes to the markets are changing. The Hel-sinki-Tallinn sea route can be considered as a fast route to the new markets in the Cen-tral and Eastern Europe. The Helsinki-Tallinn sea route is also a potential route to the Western European markets. This study provides an analysis of transport and cargo flows between Finland and Esto-nia for regional and local planners. The main purpose of the study is to clarify the pre-sent situation of the seaborne cargo flows on the Helsinki-Tallinn route and how the cargo flows will develop in the future. The study focuses on the following thematic enti-ties: the Finnish and Estonian seaborne transport system and cargo flows, the structure and volume of the cargo flows on the Helsinki-Tallinn route, the hinterland cargo flows on the Helsinki-Tallinn route and the transport methods used on the Helsinki-Tallinn route. The study was carried out as a desk research, a statistical analysis and an inter-view study during the spring–autumn 2011. The study reveals that during the period 2002–2010 the volume of the seaborne cargo traffic between Finland and Estonia has increased significantly while the trend of the trade volume between Finland and Estonia has remained nearly constant. This indicates that the route via Estonia is increasingly used in the Finnish foreign trade. Because the ports of Helsinki and Tallinn are the main ports in the cargo traffic between Finland and Estonia, the role of the Helsinki-Tallinn route as a sea leg in the hinterland connections of Finland has increased. The growth of the cargo volume on the Helsinki-Tallinn route was estimated to continue on the annual level of 10 % during the next couple of years. In the long run the growth of the cargo volumes depends on the economical and indus-trial development of the former Eastern European countries. If the IMO’s sulphur regu-lations will come in force, the Helsinki-Tallinn route will become one of the main routes also to the Western European markets, besides of the route via Sweden. The study also shows that the fast and reliable connections year round on the Helsinki-Tallinn route have made it possible for service and logistics companies to reconsider their logistics strategies in a new way in the both side of the Gulf of Finland. Anyway, the ropax concept is seen as the only economical profitable solution on the Helsinki-Tallinn route because cargo and passenger traffic are supporting each other. The trucks (vehicle combinations) will remain the main mode of transport on the Helsinki-Tallinn route because general cargo is the main commodity on the route. IMO’s sulphur regula-tions and the changes in the structure of the Finnish industry may create prerequisites for rail road transport in the hinterland connections of Finland.

Interdependence of Emerging Eastern European stock markets

One of the main developments in the global economy during the past decades has been the growth of emerging economies. Projections for their long-term growth, changes in the investment climate, corporate transparency and demography point to an increasing role for these emerging economies in the global economy. Today, emerging economies are usually considered as financial markets offering opportunities for high returns, good risk diversification and improved return-to-risk ratios. However, researchers have noted that these advantages may be in decline because of the increasing market integration. Nevertheless, it is likely that certain financial markets and specific sectors will remain partially segmented and somewhat insulated from the global economy for the year to come. This doctoral dissertation investigates several stock markets in Emerging Eastern Europe (EEE), including the ones in Russia, Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Bulgaria and Slovenia. The objective is to analyze the returns and financial risks in these emerging markets from international investor’s point of view. This study also examines the segmentation/integration of these financial markets and the possibilities to diversify and hedge financial risk. The dissertation is divided into two parts. The first includes a review of the theoretical background for the articles and a review of the literature on EEE stock markets. It includes an overview of the methodology and research design applied in the analysis and a summary of articles from the second part of this dissertation and their main findings. The second part consists of four research publications. This work contributes to studies on emerging stock markets in four ways. First, it adds to the body of research on the pricing of risk, providing new empirical evidence about partial stock market segmentation in EEE. The results suggest that the aggregate emerging market risk is a relevant driver for stock market returns and that this market risk can be used to price financial instruments and forecast their performance. Second, it contributes to the empirical research on the integration of stock markets, asset prices and exchange rates by identifying the relationships between these markets through volatility and asset pricing. The results show that certain sectors of stock markets in EEE are not as integrated as others. For example, the Polish consumer goods sector, the Hungarian telecommunications sector, and the Czech financial sector are somewhat isolated from their counterparts elsewhere in Europe. Nevertheless, an analysis of the impact of EU accession in 2004 on stock markets suggests that most of the EEE markets are becoming increasingly integrated with the global markets. Third, this thesis complements the scientific literature in the field of shock and volatility spillovers by examining the mechanism of spillover distribution among the EU and EEE countries. The results illustrate that spillovers in emerging markets are mostly from a foreign exchange to the stock markets. Moreover, the results show that the effects of external shocks on stock markets have increased after the enlargement of the EU in 2004. Finally, this study is unique because it analyzes the effects of foreign macroeconomic news on geographically closely related countries. The results suggest that the effects of macroeconomic announcements on volatility are significant and have effect that varies across markets and their sectors. Moreover, the results show that the foreign macroeconomic news releases, somewhat surprisingly, have a greater effect on the EEE markets than the local macroeconomic news. This dissertation has a number of implications for the industry and for practitioners. It analyses financial risk associated with investing in Emerging Eastern Europe. Investors may use this information to construct and optimize investment portfolios. Moreover, this dissertation provides insights for investors and portfolio managers considering asset allocation to protect value or obtain higher returns. The results have also implications for asset pricing and portfolio selection in light of macroeconomic news releases.

Russian and Eastern European Dynamic Conditional Correlations in light of the Russian crisis of 2014-2015

This thesis studies the impact of the latest Russian crisis on global markets, and especially Central and Eastern Europe. The results are compared to other shocks and crises over the last twenty years to see how significant they have been. The cointegration process of Central and Eastern European financial markets is also reviewed and updated. Using three separate conditional correlation GARCH models, the latest crisis is not found to have initiated similar surges in conditional correlations to previous crises over the last two decades. Market cointegration for Central and Eastern Europe is found to have stalled somewhat after initial correlation increases post EU accession.

Measurement of social value creation with non-financial measures

This research examines the concept of social entrepreneurship which is a fairly new business model. In the field of business it has become increasingly popular in recent years. The growing awareness of the environment and concrete examples of impact created by social entrepreneurship have encouraged entrepreneurs to address social problems. Society’s failures are tried to redress as a result of business activities. The purpose of doing business is necessarily no longer generating just profits but business is run in order to make a social change with the profit gained from the operations. Successful social entrepreneurship requires a specific nature, constant creativity and strong desire to make a social change. It requires constant balancing between two major objectives: both financial and non-financial issues need to be considered, but not at the expense of another. While aiming at the social purpose, the business needs to be run in highly competitive markets. Therefore, both factors need equally be integrated into an organization as they are complementary, not exclusionary. Business does not exist without society and society cannot go forward without business. Social entrepreneurship, its value creation, measurement tools and reporting practices are under discussion in this research. An extensive theoretical basis is covered and used to support the findings coming out of the researched case enterprises. The most attention is focused on the concept of Social Return on Investment. The case enterprises are analyzed through the SROI process. Social enterprises are mostly small or medium sized. Naturally this sets some limitations in implementing measurement tools. The question of resources requires the most attention and therefore sets the biggest constraints. However, the size of the company does not determine all – the nature of business and the type of social purpose need to be considered always. The mission may be so concrete and transparent that in all cases any kind of measurement would be useless. Implementing measurement tools may be of great benefit – or a huge financial burden. Thus, the very first thing to carefully consider is the possible need of measuring value creation.