Analyzing the Effects of the New Renewable Energy Policy in Russia on Investments into Wind, Solar and Small Hydro Power

This thesis presents an analysis of recently enacted Russian renewable energy policy based on capacity mechanism. Considering its novelty and poor coverage by academic literature, the aim of the thesis is to analyze capacity mechanism influence on investors’ decision-making process. The current research introduces a number of approaches to investment analysis. Firstly, classical financial model was built with Microsoft Excel® and crisp efficiency indicators such as net present value were determined. Secondly, sensitivity analysis was performed to understand different factors influence on project profitability. Thirdly, Datar-Mathews method was applied that by means of Monte Carlo simulation realized with Matlab Simulink®, disclosed all possible outcomes of investment project and enabled real option thinking. Fourthly, previous analysis was duplicated by fuzzy pay-off method with Microsoft Excel®. Finally, decision-making process under capacity mechanism was illustrated with decision tree. Capacity remuneration paid within 15 years is calculated individually for each RE project as variable annuity that guarantees a particular return on investment adjusted on changes in national interest rates. Analysis results indicate that capacity mechanism creates a real option to invest in renewable energy project by ensuring project profitability regardless of market conditions if project-internal factors are managed properly. The latter includes keeping capital expenditures within set limits, production performance higher than 75% of target indicators, and fulfilling localization requirement, implying producing equipment and services within the country. Occurrence of real option shapes decision-making process in the following way. Initially, investor should define appropriate location for a planned power plant where high production performance can be achieved, and lock in this location in case of competition. After, investor should wait until capital cost limit and localization requirement can be met, after that decision to invest can be made without any risk to project profitability. With respect to technology kind, investment into solar PV power plant is more attractive than into wind or small hydro power, since it has higher weighted net present value and lower standard deviation. However, it does not change decision-making strategy that remains the same for each technology type. Fuzzy pay-method proved its ability to disclose the same patterns of information as Monte Carlo simulation. Being effective in investment analysis under uncertainty and easy in use, it can be recommended as sufficient analytical tool to investors and researchers. Apart from described results, this thesis contributes to the academic literature by detailed description of capacity price calculation for renewable energy that was not available in English before. With respect to methodology novelty, such advanced approaches as Datar-Mathews method and fuzzy pay-off method are applied on the top of investment profitability model that incorporates capacity remuneration calculation as well. Comparison of effects of two different RE supporting schemes, namely Russian capacity mechanism and feed-in premium, contributes to policy comparative studies and exhibits useful inferences for researchers and policymakers. Limitations of this research are simplification of assumptions to country-average level that restricts our ability to analyze renewable energy investment region wise and existing limitation of the studying policy to the wholesale power market that leaves retail markets and remote areas without our attention, taking away medium and small investment into renewable energy from the research focus. Elimination of these limitations would allow creating the full picture of Russian renewable energy investment profile.

Distributed Energy Production in the North-West Region of Russia

The energy system of Russia is the world's fourth largest measured by installed power. The largest are that of the the United States of America, China and Japan. After 1990, the electricity consumption decreased as a result of the Russian industry crisis. The vivid economic growth during the latest few years explains the new increase in the demand for energy resources within the State. In 2005 the consumption of electricity achieved the maximum level of 1990 and continues to growth. In the 1980's, the renewal of power facilities was already very slow and practically stopped in the 1990's. At present, the energy system can be very much characterized as outdated, inefficient and uneconomic because of the old equipment, non-effective structure and large losses in the transmission lines. The aim of Russia's energy reform, which was started in 2001, is to achieve a market based energy policy by 2011. This would thus remove the significantly state-controlled monopoly in Russia's energy policy. The reform will stimulateto decrease losses, improve the energy system and employ energy-saving technologies. The Russian energy system today is still based on the use of fossil fuels, and it almost totally ignores the efficient use of renewable sources such as wind, solar, small hydro and biomass, despite of their significant resources in Russia. The main target of this project is to consider opportunities to apply renewable energy production in the North-West Federal Region of Russia to partly solve the above mentioned problems in the energy system.

Teknologiaohjelma DENSY -Hajautetun energiantuotannon tulevaisuusskenaariot ja vaikutukset liiketoimintamalleihin

Tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli selvittää miten hajautettu energiantuotanto ja siihen liittyvä liiketoiminta tulee muuttumaan tulevaisuudessaja mitä mahdollisuuksia se voisi tarjota suomalaiselle osaamiselle. Työssä käydään läpi lyhyesti hajautetun energiantuotannon teknologian nykytilaa ja tehdään teknis-taloudellista vertailua eri tuotantoteknologioiden välillä. Tämän jälkeenon muodostettu asiantuntijoiden ja aktoreiden kanssa liiketoimin-taympäristöskenaarioita, jotka kuvaavat tulevaisuuden muutossuuntia hajautetun energian-tuotannon liiketoiminnassa. Skenaarioistunnoissa löydettiin muutosta ajavat voimat ja pohdittiin niiden vaikutusta alan kehitykseen. Työn tuloksena määriteltiin skenaarioiden kehitystä vahvimmin ohjaaviksi tekijöiksi infrastruktuurin kehittyneisyys ja toisaalta myös yhteiskunnan ohjaustoimet. Niiden pohjalta luotiin lopulliset neljä skenaariota ja niille kaikille liiketoimintakuvaukset. Skenaarioiden avulla suomalaisen toimijan näkökulmasta arvioitiin houkuttelevimmiksi markkina-alueiksi EU-15, Venäjä, Intia ja Kiina. Moninaisista liiketoimintaa estävistä te-kijöistä huolimatta markkinoilta löytyi suuri potentiaali hajautetun energiantuotannon jär-jestelmille. Potentiaalisimmiksi teknologioiksi suomalaisten yritysten kannalta nähtiin puolestaan diesel- ja kaasumoottorit, tuulivoima, pienvesivoima sekä bioenergia. Yhdessä markkina- ja teknologiatutkimuksien sekä skenaariotyön avulla luotiin uusia liiketoimin-takonseptikuvauksia tulevaisuuden hajautetun energiantuotannon markkinoille suomalai-sen toimijan näkökulmasta.

Pienvesivoiman elvytys, käyttöönotto ja kannattavuus

Uusiutuvan energian tuottamisen lisääminen on edellytys saavuttaaksemme EU:n asettamat tavoitteet. Tämän takia on syytä tutkia kaikki mahdollisuudet uusiutuvan energian tuottamisen lisäämiseksi jopa aivan pienimmistä laitoksista lähtien. Tämän työn tarkoituksena on tutkia pienvesivoiman taloudellisuutta ja kannattavuutta energiantuotannossa. Työssä suoritetaan myös kustannuslaskenta, jossa pohditaan käytöstä poistetun laitoksen palauttamista takaisin sähkön tuotantoon. Samalla käydään läpi teknisiä, taloudellisia ja lakisääteisiä kysymyksiä, joita pienvoiman verkkoonliittäminen aiheuttaa. Tämä työ on eräänlainen käsikirja pienvesivoimasta. Pienvesivoiman liittäminen jakeluverkkoon on sinällään suojausteknisesti yksinkertaista, mutta kaikkien eri taloudellisten ja lakiteknisten tekijöiden huomioonottaminen on puolestaan haastavaa. Laitosten käyttö ja kunnossapito eivät sinällään vaadi sähköteknistä osaamista, kunhan turvallisuusseikat otetaan visusti huomioon. Työssä havaittiin, että pienvesivoima ei pienissä laitoksissa riitä kattamaan suuria työvoimakustannuksia, joita syntyy, kun yritysten henkilökunta ottaa osaa laitoksen toimintaan. Toisaalta pienvesivoima on erinomainen tapa tuottaa sähköä yksityiselle ihmiselle, mikäli hän on itse valmis operoimaan laitosta eikä laske omalle työlleen suuria kustannuksia. Edellytyksenä on, että omalta maa‐alueelta löytyy pienikin puro suhteellisen läheltä jakeluverkkoa.

Pienvesivoimalan uusinta

Diplomityön tavoitteena on tutkia eri vaihtoehtojen kannattavuutta pienvesivoimalan uusinnassa. Sähkönhinnan muodostus ja tulokseen vaikuttavat tekijät käsitellään kokonaisuuksinaan. Työssä tehdään kustannuslaskenta valmistajien tarjouksien perusteella ja suoritetaan esittely eri tarjouksista. Valmisteluosassa tutustutaan mitoitusarvoihin ja jos niitä ei ole miten ne selvitetään. Mittauksen kautta saadut arvot käsitellään ja sovelletaan siten, että valmistajat pystyvät käyttämään niitä. Lisäksi tutustutaan turbiinin laskentaan ja mitoitetaan Kaplan-turbiini työssä käytettyyn pienvesivoimalaan.

Business opportunities in power sector of Ukraine : focus small-scale hydro and wind power sectors

In the last few years, the Ukrainian investment market has constantly shown strong performance and significant growth. This is primarily due to the investment attractiveness of Ukraine. From the perspective of investments in energy sector, Ukraine can be described as a country providing significant number of opportunities to multiply invested funds. But there are numbers of risks which hamper large investments. The work objective was to discover opportunities in small-scale hydropower and wind power sectors of Ukraine and more importantly to prove economic expediency of such investments. Thesis covers major of issues, concerning entering the Ukrainian power market as a foreign investor. It provides basic information about the structure of power market, the state of renewables sector in Ukraine, development of power sector in the regions, functioning of Wholesale Electricity Market, formation of electricity prices, possibilities for implementing joint Implementation mechanism, while the most attention, nevertheless, is concentrated on the opportunities in small-scale hydro and wind power sectors. Theoretical part of the study disclosed that Crimea peninsula has perfect wind conditions and could be a prospective area for wind project development. Investment analysis revealed that project profits will be excellent if green tariff for renewable energy is adopted. By the moment uncertainties about green law adoption bring additional risk to the projects and complicate any investment decision.

First international workshop for small animal arthroscopy : matkakertomus

Jarmo Rintasalo, Pentti Tapio

Objectives and motivations of small-scale forest owners : theoretical modelling and qualitative assessment

Abstract

Empirical errors of small area estimates from the multisource National Forest Inventory in Eastern Finland

Abstract

Small-scale non-industrial private forest ownership in the United States : rationale and implications for forest management

Abstract

Pienvesivoimalanmallinnus ja jakeluverkkovaikutusten tarkastelu

Tässä työssä simuloitiin Valkealassa sijaitsevaa Tirvan pienvesivoimalaitosta ja sen vaikutusta sähkönjakeluverkkoon. Pienvesivoimalaitos mallinnettiin PSCAD-ympäristöön verkko- ja voimalaitostietojen perusteella. Sähköverkko kuvattiin malliin koko 110 kV:n siirtävän verkon ja Tirvan pienjänniteverkon väliltä. Mallin avulla tehtiin sarja hajautettua sähköntuotantoa koskevia tarkasteluita. Tarkasteluissa huomattiin voimalaitoksen verkkoonliitynnän aiheuttavan standardien ylärajoilla olevan transienttisen muutoksen voimalaitoksen jännitteisiin. Työssä tehtiin yksityiskohtaisempi jännitehäviöiden mittaus voimalaitoksen pullonkaulana toimivalle pienitehoiselle jakelumuuntajalle. Tuotannon lisäämisen yhteydessä näkyvän yllättävän jännitteen laskun syyt paikannettiin muuntajalla tapahtuviin loistehon siirrosta johtuviin ylimääräisiin jännitehäviöihin. Voimalaitoksella ei ole merkittävää vaikutusta vikatilanteiden virtoihin.

Computational Analysis and Optimization of Real Gas Flow In Small Centrifugal Compressors

Small centrifugal compressors are more and more widely used in many industrialsystems because of their higher efficiency and better off-design performance comparing to piston and scroll compressors as while as higher work coefficient perstage than in axial compressors. Higher efficiency is always the aim of the designer of compressors. In the present work, the influence of four partsof a small centrifugal compressor that compresses heavy molecular weight real gas has been investigated in order to achieve higher efficiency. Two parts concern the impeller: tip clearance and the circumferential position of the splitter blade. The other two parts concern the diffuser: the pinch shape and vane shape. Computational fluid dynamics is applied in this study. The Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes flow solver Finflo is used. The quasi-steady approach is utilized. Chien's k-e turbulence model is used to model the turbulence. A new practical real gas model is presented in this study. The real gas model is easily generated, accuracy controllable and fairly fast. The numerical results and measurements show good agreement. The influence of tip clearance on the performance of a small compressor is obvious. The pressure ratio and efficiency are decreased as the size of tip clearance is increased, while the total enthalpy rise keeps almost constant. The decrement of the pressure ratio and efficiency is larger at higher mass flow rates and smaller at lower mass flow rates. The flow angles at the inlet and outlet of the impeller are increased as the size of tip clearance is increased. The results of the detailed flow field show that leakingflow is the main reason for the performance drop. The secondary flow region becomes larger as the size of tip clearance is increased and the area of the main flow is compressed. The flow uniformity is then decreased. A detailed study shows that the leaking flow rate is higher near the exit of the impeller than that near the inlet of the impeller. Based on this phenomenon, a new partiallyshrouded impeller is used. The impeller is shrouded near the exit of the impeller. The results show that the flow field near the exit of the impeller is greatly changed by the partially shrouded impeller, and better performance is achievedthan with the unshrouded impeller. The loading distribution on the impeller blade and the flow fields in the impeller is changed by moving the splitter of the impeller in circumferential direction. Moving the splitter slightly to the suction side of the long blade can improve the performance of the compressor. The total enthalpy rise is reduced if only the leading edge of the splitter ismoved to the suction side of the long blade. The performance of the compressor is decreased if the blade is bended from the radius direction at the leading edge of the splitter. The total pressure rise and the enthalpy rise of thecompressor are increased if pinch is used at the diffuser inlet. Among the fivedifferent pinch shape configurations, at design and lower mass flow rates the efficiency of a straight line pinch is the highest, while at higher mass flow rate, the efficiency of a concave pinch is the highest. The sharp corner of the pinch is the main reason for the decrease of efficiency and should be avoided. The variation of the flow angles entering the diffuser in spanwise direction is decreased if pinch is applied. A three-dimensional low solidity twisted vaned diffuser is designed to match the flow angles entering the diffuser. The numerical results show that the pressure recovery in the twisted diffuser is higher than in a conventional low solidity vaned diffuser, which also leads to higher efficiency of the twisted diffuser. Investigation of the detailed flow fields shows that the separation at lower mass flow rate in the twisted diffuser is later than in the conventional low solidity vaned diffuser, which leads to a possible wider flow range of the twisted diffuser.