Developing scenarios of atmosphere, weather and climate for northern regions

Selostus: Ilmakehä-, sää- ja ilmastoskenaarioiden kehittäminen pohjoisille alueille

Investment Determinants and Future Shape of Russia's Power Generation

The reformation of power sector is still in the process of development. The present day situation in Russian electricity power market ischaracterized as transitional period: competitive electricity market is forming, new companies are being created and the power of government regulation is decreasing. The main aim of the reformation is to attract much-needed private investments to the power sector. The electricity consumption increases very rapidly and power sector has to cope with high demand. The goal of this master's thesis is to analyze the nowadays situation in Russian power sector, such as generation structure, condition of electricity networks, electricity price formation for end-users, shape of fuel sector and investments risks and attraction.The final result of this work is creation of scenario of Russian power sector future shape and analysis of the present day situation.

On the impact of rigorous approaches on the quality of development

Software systems are expanding and becoming increasingly present in everyday activities. The constantly evolving society demands that they deliver more functionality, are easy to use and work as expected. All these challenges increase the size and complexity of a system. People may not be aware of a presence of a software system, until it malfunctions or even fails to perform. The concept of being able to depend on the software is particularly significant when it comes to the critical systems. At this point quality of a system is regarded as an essential issue, since any deficiencies may lead to considerable money loss or life endangerment. Traditional development methods may not ensure a sufficiently high level of quality. Formal methods, on the other hand, allow us to achieve a high level of rigour and can be applied to develop a complete system or only a critical part of it. Such techniques, applied during system development starting at early design stages, increase the likelihood of obtaining a system that works as required. However, formal methods are sometimes considered difficult to utilise in traditional developments. Therefore, it is important to make them more accessible and reduce the gap between the formal and traditional development methods. This thesis explores the usability of rigorous approaches by giving an insight into formal designs with the use of graphical notation. The understandability of formal modelling is increased due to a compact representation of the development and related design decisions. The central objective of the thesis is to investigate the impact that rigorous approaches have on quality of developments. This means that it is necessary to establish certain techniques for evaluation of rigorous developments. Since we are studying various development settings and methods, specific measurement plans and a set of metrics need to be created for each setting. Our goal is to provide methods for collecting data and record evidence of the applicability of rigorous approaches. This would support the organisations in making decisions about integration of formal methods into their development processes. It is important to control the software development, especially in its initial stages. Therefore, we focus on the specification and modelling phases, as well as related artefacts, e.g. models. These have significant influence on the quality of a final system. Since application of formal methods may increase the complexity of a system, it may impact its maintainability, and thus quality. Our goal is to leverage quality of a system via metrics and measurements, as well as generic refinement patterns, which are applied to a model and a specification. We argue that they can facilitate the process of creating software systems, by e.g. controlling complexity and providing the modelling guidelines. Moreover, we find them as additional mechanisms for quality control and improvement, also for rigorous approaches. The main contribution of this thesis is to provide the metrics and measurements that help in assessing the impact of rigorous approaches on developments. We establish the techniques for the evaluation of certain aspects of quality, which are based on structural, syntactical and process related characteristics of an early-stage development artefacts, i.e. specifications and models. The presented approaches are applied to various case studies. The results of the investigation are juxtaposed with the perception of domain experts. It is our aspiration to promote measurements as an indispensable part of quality control process and a strategy towards the quality improvement.

Scenarios for electricity power sector development in the North-West of Russia

Focus of this thesisis made on development of electricity sector of Russian North-West. The objective was to determine the most likely scenarios for development of the most critical (western) part of Interregional Power System of North-West, from where the most part of Russian electricity exports to the countries of European Union take place. For this purpose all the involved sides were analyzed: generation, transmission system and electricity consumption in different regions of Russian North-West. The analysis was performed through investigation of existing generation andtransmission capacities and plans for their development to be performed by the generation and transmission companies operating in the region. Principles of Russian electricity sector restructuring and electricity market design are also discussed as well as factors that may influence on future electricity price in the region.

Scenario method in anticipating future opportunities of e-business in the forest industry

Tutkimuksen tavoitteena on ennakoida liiketoimintaprosessien sähköistymisen kehittymistä käyttämällä skenaariomenetelmää, yhtä laajimmin käytetyistä tulevaisuuden tutkimisen menetelmistä. Tarkastelun kohteena ovat erityisesti tulevaisuuden e-business -ratkaisut metsäteollisuudessa. Tutkimuksessa selvitetään skenaariomenetelmän ominaisuuksia, skenaariosuunnittelun periaatteita sekä menetelmän sopivuutta teknologian ja toimialan muutosten tarkasteluun. Tutkimuksen teoriaosassa selvitetään teknologian muutoksen vaikutusta toimialojen kehitykseen. Todettiin, että teknologisella muutoksella on vahva vaikutus toimialojen muutoksiin, ja että jokainen toimiala seuraa tietynlaista kehitystrajektoria. Yritysten tulee olla tietoisia teknologisen muutoksen nopeudesta ja suunnasta, ja seurata toimialansa kehityksen sääntöjä. Metsäteollisuudessa muutosten radikaali luonne sekä ICT-teknologian nopea kehitys asettavat haasteita liiketoimintaprosessien sähköistämisen kentässä. Empiriaosuudessa luotiin kolme erilaista skenaariota e-busineksen tulevaisuudesta metsäteollisuudessa. Skenaariot perustuvat pääosin aiheen asiantuntijoiden tämän hetkisiin näkemyksiin, joita koottiin skenaariotyöpajassa. Skenaarioiden muodostamisessa yhdistettiin kvalitatiivisia ja kvantitatiivisia elementtejä. Muodostetut kolme skenaariota osoittavat, että e-busineksen vaikutukset tulevaisuudessa nähdään pääosin positiivisina, ja että yritysten tulee kehittyä aktiivisesti ja joustavasti pystyäkseen hyödyntämään sähköisiä ratkaisuja tehokkaasti liiketoiminnassaan.

The development of credit management

The objective of the examination was to create development suggestions to intensify the credit management in the subject enterprise. The target of the theory part was to add understanding concerning the credit management and to define the process of credit management. The target of the empirical part was to get to know the present conditions of the credit management in the subject enterprise as well as to establish the problems in the process. The research methodology is constructive, but there are also characteristics of action research.The target of constructive methodology is to create a solutionmodel for the relevant research problem. The methods used in the empirical part were participating observation, literary material and interviews. Within the results of the research a number of development suggestions for the credit management were presented. It is possible to achieve considerable returns while shortening the chain of cash payments. In the suggestions the importance of cooperation between different functions as well as training were emphasized.

Improving the effectiveness of supply chain development work – an expert role perspective

This study focuses to the intersection of three sets of activities in a company: expert work, development work and supply chain management, SCM. Experts and expert work represent a set of individuals whose efficiency and impact this study is intended to improve, while development work defines the set of organizational activities to focus on. SCM as an expertise area acts as the platform on which this study is built. The study has two aims. Firstly, it aims to derive a model helping an SCM expert to increase the effectiveness of expert work in development tasks by understanding the encountered organizational situations and processes better, reflecting his/her past and future actions to organizational processes and selecting and adjusting the processes and contents of his/her work accordingly. Secondly, it aims to develop applicable approaches and methods to understand, evaluate and manage the organizational processes and situations in development work. The integrative model on approaches and methods to improve the effectiveness of development processes is split to two aggregate dimensions: technical performance of the developed solution and consumption of resources of the development process. Six potential approaches and methods aiming at helping in the management of organizational dimensions are presented in enclosed publications. The approaches focus on three subtasks of development work: decision making, implementation and change, and knowledge accumulation. The approaches and methods have been tested in case studies representing typical development processes in the area of supply chain management. As a result, four suggestions are presented. Firstly, SCM experts are advised to consider the SCM development work to be consisting of development processes. Secondly, inside these processes they should identify and evaluate the risk of difficult decision-making related to organizational factors. Thirdly, they are prompted for an active role in implementation and change, supporting the implementation through whole process. Finally, the development should be seen in a holistic view, taking into account the stage of knowledge and organizational issues related to it, and adopt a knowledge development strategy.

The purpose and use of passenger ships in 2058 - Future scenarios generated by the Delphi method

The purpose of the thesis is to generate scenarios of future purposes and of use of ships, suitable for STX Finland Cruise Oy to design and build, over a 50 year time span by applying the Delphi method and an open innovation approach in a future workshop. The scenarios were mapped out with help of two Delphi survey rounds and one future workshop. The number of participants in both surveys and the workshop was some twenty experts in each, representing various fields. On the basis of the first survey round, four different subject areas were selected for analysis: purposes for the use of ships; energy efficiency of cruises and ships; cost efficiency of sea transportation and vacation; and the views and expectations of the customers in the future. As a result of the future workshop, four different themes were established, which were studied further during the second Delphi round. The themes are future service and operation concepts; versatile uses of the space in ships; communication of environmental benefits of ships, future energy solutions and social interaction between passengers onboard. In addition to generating the scenarios, further aim of the thesis is to implement the Delphi method and workshop activity as foresight tools for STX Europe and to produce a chart of a future shipbuilding foresight community to can serve the open innovation processes in the maritime cluster as a whole.

Development of Cost Estimation with Feedback Information in EPCM Business

Target company of this study is a large machinery company, which is, inter alia, engaged in energy and pulp engineering, procurement and construction management (EPCM) supply business. The main objective of this study was to develop cost estimation of the target company by providing more accurate, reliable and up-to-date information through enterprise resource planning (ERP) system. Another objective was to find cost-effective methods to collect total cost of ownership information to support more informed supplier selection decision making. This study is primarily action-oriented, but also constructive, and it can be divided in two sections: theoretical literature review and empirical study on the abovementioned part of the target company’s business. Development of information collection is, in addition to literature review, based on nearly 30 qualitative interviews of employees at various organizational units, functions and levels at the target company. At the core of development was to make initial data more accurate, reliable and available, a necessary prerequisite for informed use of the information. Certain development suggestions and paths were presented in order to regain confidence in ERP system as information source by reorganizing work breakdown structure and by complementing mere cost information with quantitative, technical and scope information. Several methods to use the information ever more effectively were also discussed. While implementation of the development suggestions outreached the scope of this study, it was forwarded in test environment and interest groups.

Novel Functions of ErbB4 and NRG-1 in Development and Cancer

Cells communicate, or signal, with each other constantly to ensure proper functioning of tissues and organs. Cell signaling is often performed by interplay of receptors and ligands that bind these receptors. ErbB receptors (epidermal growth factor receptors, EGFR, HER) bind extracellular growth factors and transduce these signals inside of cells. ErbB dysfunction promotes carcinogenesis, and also results in numerous defects during normal development. This study focused on the functions of one member of the ErbB receptor family, ErbB4, and growth factor, neuregulin-1 (NRG-1), that can bind and activate ErbB4. This study aimed to find novel functions of ErbB4 and NRG-1. Hypoxia, or deficiency of oxygen, is common in cancer and ischemic conditions. One of the key findings of the work was the identification and characterization of a cross-talk between ErbB4 and Hypoxia-inducible factor 1α (HIF-1α), the central mediator of hypoxia signaling. ErbB4 activation by NRG-1 was found to increase HIF-1α activity. Interestingly, this regulation occurred in reciprocal manner as HIF-1α was also able to increase protein levels of NRG-1 and ErbB4. Moreover, expression of NRG-1 and ErbB4 was associated with HIF activity in vivo in human clinical samples and in mice. Reduction of functional ErbB4 in developing zebrafish embryos resulted in defects in development of the skeletal muscles. To study ErbB4 functions in pathological situation in humans, clinical samples of serous ovarian carcinoma were analyzed using tissue microarrays and real-time RT-PCR. A specific isoform of ErbB4, CYT-1, was associated with poor survival in serous ovarian cancer and increased anchorage independent growth of ovarian cancer cells in vitro. These observations demonstrate that ErbB4 and NRG-1 are essential regulators of cellular response to hypoxia, of development, and of ovarian carcinogenesis.

Long-term nutrient load management and lake restoration: Case of Säkylän Pyhäjärvi (SW Finland)

Eutrophication caused by anthropogenic nutrient pollution has become one of the most severe threats to water bodies. Nutrients enter water bodies from atmospheric precipitation, industrial and domestic wastewaters and surface runoff from agricultural and forest areas. As point pollution has been significantly reduced in developed countries in recent decades, agricultural non-point sources have been increasingly identified as the largest source of nutrient loading in water bodies. In this study, Lake Säkylän Pyhäjärvi and its catchment are studied as an example of a long-term, voluntary-based, co-operative model of lake and catchment management. Lake Pyhäjärvi is located in the centre of an intensive agricultural area in southwestern Finland. More than 20 professional fishermen operate in the lake area, and the lake is used as a drinking water source and for various recreational activities. Lake Pyhäjärvi is a good example of a large and shallow lake that suffers from eutrophication and is subject to measures to improve this undesired state under changing conditions. Climate change is one of the most important challenges faced by Lake Pyhäjärvi and other water bodies. The results show that climatic variation affects the amounts of runoff and nutrient loading and their timing during the year. The findings from the study area concerning warm winters and their influences on nutrient loading are in accordance with the IPCC scenarios of future climate change. In addition to nutrient reduction measures, the restoration of food chains (biomanipulation) is a key method in water quality management. The food-web structure in Lake Pyhäjärvi has, however, become disturbed due to mild winters, short ice cover and low fish catch. Ice cover that enables winter seining is extremely important to the water quality and ecosystem of Lake Pyhäjärvi, as the vendace stock is one of the key factors affecting the food web and the state of the lake. New methods for the reduction of nutrient loading and the treatment of runoff waters from agriculture, such as sand filters, were tested in field conditions. The results confirm that the filter technique is an applicable method for nutrient reduction, but further development is needed. The ability of sand filters to absorb nutrients can be improved with nutrient binding compounds, such as lime. Long-term hydrological, chemical and biological research and monitoring data on Lake Pyhäjärvi and its catchment provide a basis for water protection measures and improve our understanding of the complicated physical, chemical and biological interactions between the terrestrial and aquatic realms. In addition to measurements carried out in field conditions, Lake Pyhäjärvi and its catchment were studied using various modelling methods. In the calibration and validation of models, long-term and wide-ranging time series data proved to be valuable. Collaboration between researchers, modellers and local water managers further improves the reliability and usefulness of models. Lake Pyhäjärvi and its catchment can also be regarded as a good research laboratory from the point of view of the Baltic Sea. The main problem in both of them is eutrophication caused by excess nutrients, and nutrient loading has to be reduced – especially from agriculture. Mitigation measures are also similar in both cases.

Dynamic model development of adiabatic compressed air energy storage

The share of variable renewable energy in electricity generation has seen exponential growth during the recent decades, and due to the heightened pursuit of environmental targets, the trend is to continue with increased pace. The two most important resources, wind and insolation both bear the burden of intermittency, creating a need for regulation and posing a threat to grid stability. One possibility to deal with the imbalance between demand and generation is to store electricity temporarily, which was addressed in this thesis by implementing a dynamic model of adiabatic compressed air energy storage (CAES) with Apros dynamic simulation software. Based on literature review, the existing models due to their simplifications were found insufficient for studying transient situations, and despite of its importance, the investigation of part load operation has not yet been possible with satisfactory precision. As a key result of the thesis, the cycle efficiency at design point was simulated to be 58.7%, which correlated well with literature information, and was validated through analytical calculations. The performance at part load was validated against models shown in literature, showing good correlation. By introducing wind resource and electricity demand data to the model, grid operation of CAES was studied. In order to enable the dynamic operation, start-up and shutdown sequences were approximated in dynamic environment, as far as is known, the first time, and a user component for compressor variable guide vanes (VGV) was implemented. Even in the current state, the modularly designed model offers a framework for numerous studies. The validity of the model is limited by the accuracy of VGV correlations at part load, and in addition the implementation of heat losses to the thermal energy storage is necessary to enable longer simulations. More extended use of forecasts is one of the important targets of development, if the system operation is to be optimised in future.