Skenaariotyöskentely organisaation oppimisen välineenä

Skenaarioita käytetään usein ylimmän johdon strategiasuunnitteluvälineinä. Tämän tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli selvittää vaikuttavatko skenaariot ja skenaariotyöskentely organisaation oppimiseen laajemminkin kuin yksilötasolla ja minkälaista oppimista tapahtuu sekä minkälaisia ominaisuuksia skenaariotyötä johtavalla olisi hyvä olla. Tutkimusaineisto on kerätty haastattelemalla skenaariotöitä johtanutta henkilöä sekä niihin osallistuneita henkilöitä. Tutkittavana oli kaksi skenaariotyötä, joista toisen tavoittena oli kuvata tulevaisuuden mobiileja liiketoimintamalleja ja toisen mallintaa verkko-operaattoriliiketoiminnan tulevaisuutta. Tutkimuksen aikana selvisi, että skenaarioilla ja skenaariotyöskentelyllä voi tukea organisaation oppimista niin yksilön, ryhmän/organisaation kuin organisaatioiden väliselläkin tasolla. Skenaariotyötä tekevällä ryhmällä ja sitä johtavalla henkilöllä on vaikutusta organisaation oppimiseen. Erityisen tärkeää organisaation oppimisen kannalta on, kuinka skenaariotyöskentely aloitetaan ja lopetetaan.

Notes on Emerging Technologies

This dissertation considers the impact of technology foresight in innovation within the context of a technology driven development. The main hypothesis made was that by using different methods of foresight in the industry level significant value could be created. The question was approached through a case study in portable fuel cell technology. The theoretical background of the study draws from Innovation, Product Development, Management of Technology, and Technology Foresight. The connection within the topics is made by analyzing foresight, not in a policy view as often done in Europe, but in a micro-level. Focusing mostly on how a technology driven development scenario could be analyzed. The study is based on a bibliometric, extrapolation and patent analysis within the context of a case study. In addition, a large two-year Delphi study was conducted. The study was finalized with a scenario work on the future possibilities of the case study technology. Original publications also consider several methodological issues. In the context of the case study, the study questions the practicality of establishing a portable fuel cell technology in Finland showing several impractical assumptions has been made. In a more conceptual level, the study makes notions on two underlying factors: policy-push technologies and growth of data. Policy-push questions in which level a policy effort towards a single technology is practical. The European foresight effort is more directed towards policy decisions in contrast to US foresight, which is to some extent corporate driven. Although the policy-based foresight has produced significant results in the European context, policy led efforts towards a single technology are challenging. Growth of data argues on the challenges produced by the large-scale application of quantitative measures of foresight. Bibliometric studies and trend extrapolations have been taken advantage of the increasing number of databases made available, and used these as the basis for forecasts. However, the relationship with actual development and quantitative evidence is still unproven.

Toimintopohjainen ennustemalli palvelualan yritykselle

Kohdeorganisaatiossa on havaittu tarvetta kustannusten tarkemmalle ennustamiselle liiketoimintaympäristön ja palvelutarjooman muutosten seurauksena. Diplomityön päätavoitteena on selvittää, kuinka palvelualan yritykselle rakennetaan toimintopohjainen kustannusten ennustemalli. Päätavoitetta lähestytään selvittämällä mallin rakennusvaiheet, soveltuvuus kohdeorganisaatiolle ja siitä saatava lisäarvo. Tutkielmassa käytetään konstruktiivista tutkimusotetta. Malli pohjautuu toimintopohjaisen suunnittelun ja budjetoinnin suljetun silmukkamallin teoriaan. Empiriaosassa suoritetaan mallin rakentaminen vaiheittain. Työn tulokset osoittavat toimintopohjaisen suunnittelun ja budjetoinnin suljetun silmukkamallin soveltuvuuden kohdeorganisaation toimintojen mallinnukseen. Toimintopohjaisesta ennustemallista on saatavissa lisäarvoa budjetointiin ja skenaariotyöhön. Mallin avulla voidaan tarkastella budjetoinnin realistisuutta. Skenaariotyöstä voidaan saada tukea päätöksentekoon, koska erilaisten toimenpiteiden vaikutuksia voidaan arvioida resurssitarpeen ja kustannusten näkökulmasta.

Helsinki hub – new traffic flows and business networks

This thesis is the Logistics Development Forum's assignment and the work dealing with the development of the Port of Helsinki as part of Helsinki hub. The Forum aims to develop logistics efficiency through public-private co-operation and development of the port is clearly dependent on both factors. Freight volumes in the Port of Helsinki are the biggest single factor in hub and, therefore, the role of the port of the entire hub development is strong. The aim is to look at how the port will develop as a result of changes in the foreign trade of Finland and the Northern European logistics trends in 25 years time period. Work includes the current state analysis and scenario work. The analyses are intended to find out, which trends are the most important in the port volume development. The change and effect of trends is examined through scenarios based on current state. Based on the work, the structure of Finnish export industry and international demand are in the key role in the port volume development. There is significant difference between demands of Finnish exporting products in different export markets and the development between the markets has different impacts on the port volumes by mass and cargo type. On the other hand, the Finnish economy is stuck in a prolonged recession and competition between ports has become a significant factor in the individual port's volume development. Ecological valuesand regulations have changed the competitive landscape and maritime transport emissions reductions has become an important competitive factor for short routes in the Baltic Sea, such as in the link between Helsinki and Tallinn.

Effects of three harvesting work methods on Harwarder productivity in final felling

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Testing a large-scale forestry scenario model by means of successive inventories on a forest property

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