Validation of plant dynamic model by online and laboratory measurements – a tool to predict online COD loads out of production of mechanical printing papers

COD discharges out of processes have increased in line with elevating brightness demands for mechanical pulp and papers. The share of lignin-like substances in COD discharges is on average 75%. In this thesis, a plant dynamic model was created and validated as a means to predict COD loading and discharges out of a mill. The assays were carried out in one paper mill integrate producing mechanical printing papers. The objective in the modeling of plant dynamics was to predict day averages of COD load and discharges out of mills. This means that online data, like 1) the level of large storage towers of pulp and white water 2) pulp dosages, 3) production rates and 4) internal white water flows and discharges were used to create transients into the balances of solids and white water, referred to as “plant dynamics”. A conversion coefficient was verified between TOC and COD. The conversion coefficient was used for predicting the flows from TOC to COD to the waste water treatment plant. The COD load was modeled with similar uncertainty as in reference TOC sampling. The water balance of waste water treatment was validated by the reference concentration of COD. The difference of COD predictions against references was within the same deviation of TOC-predictions. The modeled yield losses and retention values of TOC in pulping and bleaching processes and the modeled fixing of colloidal TOC to solids between the pulping plant and the aeration basin in the waste water treatment plant were similar to references presented in literature. The valid water balances of the waste water treatment plant and the reduction model of lignin-like substances produced a valid prediction of COD discharges out of the mill. A 30% increase in the release of lignin-like substances in the form of production problems was observed in pulping and bleaching processes. The same increase was observed in COD discharges out of waste water treatment. In the prediction of annual COD discharge, it was noticed that the reduction of lignin has a wide deviation from year to year and from one mill to another. This made it difficult to compare the parameters of COD discharges validated in plant dynamic simulation with another mill producing mechanical printing papers. However, a trend of moving from unbleached towards high-brightness TMP in COD discharges was valid.

Warranty Prediction Using Weibull Simulation

The main objective of this master’s thesis is to examine if Weibull analysis is suitable method for warranty forecasting in the Case Company. The Case Company has used Reliasoft’s Weibull++ software, which is basing on the Weibull method, but the Company has noticed that the analysis has not given right results. This study was conducted making Weibull simulations in different profit centers of the Case Company and then comparing actual cost and forecasted cost. Simula-tions were made using different time frames and two methods for determining future deliveries. The first sub objective is to examine, which parameters of simulations will give the best result to each profit center. The second sub objective of this study is to create a simple control model for following forecasted costs and actual realized costs. The third sub objective is to document all Qlikview-parameters of profit centers. This study is a constructive research, and solutions for company’s problems are figured out in this master’s thesis. In the theory parts were introduced quality issues, for example; what is quality, quality costing and cost of poor quality. Quality is one of the major aspects in the Case Company, so understand-ing the link between quality and warranty forecasting is important. Warranty management was also introduced and other different tools for warranty forecasting. The Weibull method and its mathematical properties and reliability engineering were introduced. The main results of this master’s thesis are that the Weibull analysis forecasted too high costs, when calculating provision. Although, some forecasted values of profit centers were lower than actual values, the method works better for planning purposes. One of the reasons is that quality improving or alternatively quality decreasing is not showing in the results of the analysis in the short run. The other reason for too high values is that the products of the Case Company are com-plex and analyses were made in the profit center-level. The Weibull method was developed for standard products, but products of the Case Company consists of many complex components. According to the theory, this method was developed for homogeneous-data. So the most im-portant notification is that the analysis should be made in the product level, not the profit center level, when the data is more homogeneous.

Pienen kiinteistösijoitusyhtiön kasvustrategia

Tämän pro gradu-tutkielman tarkoituksena oli tutkia minkälaisia kasvupyrkimyksiä Suomessa toimivilla pienillä kiinteistösijoittajilla tai kiinteistösijoitusyhtiöillä on. Tutkimuksen pohjaksi esiteltiin yrityksen strategiateoriaa ja kasvun malleja pienyritysnäkökulmasta. Tutkimuksen tulokset voivat antaa yrittäjille mietteitä kasvamisen suunnitelmallisuudesta ja sen hyödyistä. Tutkimusosuus suoritettiin laadullisena tutkimuksena. Aineisto kerättiin haastattelemalla 16 pientä kiinteistösijoittajaa nettipohjaisen kyselyn avulla. Painopiste oli vapaissa vastauksissa ja tällä pyrittiin saamaan laajoja mielipiteitä. Kohdeyritykset valittiin sattumalta tutkijan lähipiiriin kuuluvien yrittäjien avulla. Maantieteellinen jakauma oli laaja, koko maan kattava. Kohdeyrityksistä haastateltiin yhtä henkilöä, joka oli tyypillisesti yrityksen omistaja. Haastatteluista saatua materiaalia analysoitiin strategisten näkemysten ja yrityksen kasvuteorioiden valossa. Tutkimuksessa todettiin, että pienyrittäjät suhtautuvat kiinteistösijoittamiseen lähinnä säästämismuotona eikä niinkään systemaattisena yrittämisenä. Useat vastaajat tekivät kiinteistösijoittamista osa-aikaisesti. Kasvua tavoittelee kyllä valtaosa yrityksistä, mutta sen eteen ei tehdä juuri mitään. Odotellaan vain sopivia kohteita ostettavaksi. Kasvamisen määrä riippuu hyvin pitkälti yrittäjän persoonasta. Jos yrittäjä on kunnianhimoinen toiminnan kasvattaja, niin se heijastuu myös hänen harjoittamaan kiinteistösijoittamiseen.