Market integration, return and volatility dynamics; empirical evidence from African stock markets

Frontier and Emerging economies have implemented policies with the objective of liberalizing their equity markets. Equity market liberalization opens the domestic equity market to foreign investors and as well paves the way for domestic investors to invest in foreign equity securities. Among other things, equity market liberalization results in diversification benefits. Moreover, equity market liberalization leads to low cost of equity capital resulting from the lower rate of return by investors. Additionally, foreign and local investors share any potential risks. Liberalized equity markets also become liquid considering that there are more investors to trade. Equity market liberalization results in financial integration which explains the movement of two markets. In crisis period, increased volatility and co-movement between two markets may result in what is termed contagion effects. In Africa, major moves toward financial liberalization generally started in the late 1980s with South Africa as the pioneer. Over the years, researchers have studied the impact of financial liberalization on Africa’s economic development with diverse results; some being positive, others negative and still others being mixed. The objective of this study is to establish whether African stock-markets are integrated into the United States (US) and World market. Furthermore, the study helps to see if there are international linkages between the Africa, US and the world markets. A Bivariate- VAR- GARCH- BEKK model is employed in the study. In the study, the effect of thin trading is removed through series of econometric data purification. This is because thin trading, also known as non-trading or inconsistency of trading, is a main feature of African markets and may trigger inconsistency and biased results. The study confirmed the widely established results that the South Africa and Egypt stock markets are highly integrated with the US and World market. Interestingly, the study adds to knowledge in this research area by establishing the fact that Kenya is very integrated with the US and World markets and that it receives and exports past innovations as well as shocks to and from the US and World market.

Investment Determinants and Future Shape of Russia's Power Generation

The reformation of power sector is still in the process of development. The present day situation in Russian electricity power market ischaracterized as transitional period: competitive electricity market is forming, new companies are being created and the power of government regulation is decreasing. The main aim of the reformation is to attract much-needed private investments to the power sector. The electricity consumption increases very rapidly and power sector has to cope with high demand. The goal of this master's thesis is to analyze the nowadays situation in Russian power sector, such as generation structure, condition of electricity networks, electricity price formation for end-users, shape of fuel sector and investments risks and attraction.The final result of this work is creation of scenario of Russian power sector future shape and analysis of the present day situation.

Strategic choices and performance – an empirical analysis of largest European and North American energy companies

Energy industry has gone through major changes globally in past two decades. Liberalization of energy markets has led companies to integrate both vertically and horizontally. Growing concern on sustainable development and aims to decrease greenhouse gases in future will increase the portion of renewable energy in total energy production. Purpose of this study was to analyze using statistical methods, what impacts different strategic choices has on biggest European and North American energy companies’ performance. Results show that vertical integration, horizontal integration and use of renewable energy in production had the most impact on profitability. Increase in level of vertical integration decreased companies’ profitability, while increase in horizontal integration improved companies’ profitability. Companies that used renewable energy in production were less profitable than companies not using renewable energy.

Viron sähkömarkkinoiden vapautumisen hyödyntäminen ISS-konsernin liiketoiminnassa

Euroopan Unionin tavoitteena on vapauttaa ja yhdentää sähkömarkkinoita. Sähkömarkkinoiden vapautumisella ja yhdentymisellä EU:ssa taataan toimivat sisämarkkinat siirtovarmuudeltaan ja vähennetään energiariippuvuutta kolmansista maista. Sähkömarkkinoiden vapautuminen on toteutunut vaiheittain ja Virossa sähkömarkkinat ovat edelleen osittain säännöstellyt. EU:n lainsäädännön mukaan sähkömarkkinat tuli vapauttaa vuoteen 2007 mennessä, mutta Viro sai siirtymäkauden vuoteen 2013 saakka mm. rakenteellisten ongelmien vuoksi. Imatran Seudun Sähköllä on omistuksessa Virossa toimiva sähköyhtiö, Imatra Elekter AS. Työn tavoitteena oli selvittää Viron sähkömarkkinoiden toimintaa, markkinoiden vapautumisen vaikutuksia ja vapautumisen hyödyntämismahdollisuuksia Imatran Seudun Sähkön liiketoiminnassa. Viron sähkömarkkinat ovat hyvin erikoiset ja kilpailutilanne markkinoiden vapautumisen jälkeen on haastava. Markkinat ovat hyvin keskittyneet yhden osapuolen suuren markkinaosuuden vuoksi ja sähkön tuotanto perustuu lähes yksinomaan yhdellä polttoaineella keskitetysti tuotettuun energiaan. Huolimatta näistä seikoista markkinoilla on paljon myös mahdollisuuksia, joita tässä työssä selvitettiin. Työn tuloksena saatiin muodostettua liiketoimintastrategia energia- ja verkkoliiketoiminnalle. Lisäksi työssä pohdittiin energian tuotantomahdollisuuksia Virossa ja selvitystyö tuotti tulokseksi varteenotettavia energian tuotantomahdollisuuksia.

The governmental organization's role in railway freight market's liberalization -building knowledge through Swedish and Polish operators' experiences

Globalization has increased transport aggregates’ demand. Whilst transport volumes increase, ecological values’im portance has sharpened: carbon footprint has become a measure known world widely. European Union together with other communities emphasizes friendliness to the environment: same trend has extended to transports. As a potential substitute for road transport is noted railway transport, which decreases the congestions and lowers the emission levels. Railway freight market was liberalized in the European Union 2007, which enabled new operators to enter the markets. This research had two main objectives. Firstly, it examined the main market entry strategies utilized and the barriers to entry confronted by the operators who entered the markets after the liberalization. Secondly, the aim was to find ways the governmental organization could enhance its service towards potential railway freight operators. Research is a qualitative case study, utilizing descriptive analytical research method with a normative shade. Empirical data was gathered by interviewing Swedish and Polish railway freight operators by using a semi-structured theme-interview. This research provided novel information by using first-hand data; topic has been researched previously by utilizing second-hand data and literature analyses. Based on this research, rolling stock acquisition, needed investments and bureaucracy generate the main barriers to entry. The research results show that the mostly utilized market entry strategies are start-up and vertical integration. The governmental organization could enhance the market entry process by organizing courses, paying extra attention on flexibility, internal know-how and educating the staff.

Essays on pricing of risk and international linkage of Russian stock market

Last two decades have seen a rapid change in the global economic and financial situation; the economic conditions in many small and large underdeveloped countries started to improve and they became recognized as emerging markets. This led to growth in the amounts of global investments in these countries, partly spurred by expectations of higher returns, favorable risk-return opportunities, and better diversification alternatives to global investors. This process, however, has not been without problems and it has emphasized the need for more information on these markets. In particular, the liberalization of financial markets around the world, globalization of trade and companies, recent formation of economic and regional blocks, and the rapid development of underdeveloped countries during the last two decades have brought a major challenge to the financial world and researchers alike. This doctoral dissertation studies one of the largest emerging markets, namely Russia. The motivation why the Russian equity market is worth investigating includes, among other factors, its sheer size, rapid and robust economic growth since the turn of the millennium, future prospect for international investors, and a number of important major financial reforms implemented since the early 1990s. Another interesting feature of the Russian economy, which gives motivation to study Russian market, is Russia’s 1998 financial crisis, considered as one of the worst crisis in recent times, affecting both developed and developing economies. Therefore, special attention has been paid to Russia’s 1998 financial crisis throughout this dissertation. This thesis covers the period from the birth of the modern Russian financial markets to the present day, Special attention is given to the international linkage and the 1998 financial crisis. This study first identifies the risks associated with Russian market and then deals with their pricing issues. Finally some insights about portfolio construction within Russian market are presented. The first research paper of this dissertation considers the linkage of the Russian equity market to the world equity market by examining the international transmission of the Russia’s 1998 financial crisis utilizing the GARCH-BEKK model proposed by Engle and Kroner. Empirical results shows evidence of direct linkage between the Russian equity market and the world market both in regards of returns and volatility. However, the weakness of the linkage suggests that the Russian equity market was only partially integrated into the world market, even though the contagion can be clearly seen during the time of the crisis period. The second and the third paper, co-authored with Mika Vaihekoski, investigate whether global, local and currency risks are priced in the Russian stock market from a US investors’ point of view. Furthermore, the dynamics of these sources of risk are studied, i.e., whether the prices of the global and local risk factors are constant or time-varying over time. We utilize the multivariate GARCH-M framework of De Santis and Gérard (1998). Similar to them we find price of global market risk to be time-varying. Currency risk also found to be priced and highly time varying in the Russian market. Moreover, our results suggest that the Russian market is partially segmented and local risk is also priced in the market. The model also implies that the biggest impact on the US market risk premium is coming from the world risk component whereas the Russian risk premium is on average caused mostly by the local and currency components. The purpose of the fourth paper is to look at the relationship between the stock and the bond market of Russia. The objective is to examine whether the correlations between two classes of assets are time varying by using multivariate conditional volatility models. The Constant Conditional Correlation model by Bollerslev (1990), the Dynamic Conditional Correlation model by Engle (2002), and an asymmetric version of the Dynamic Conditional Correlation model by Cappiello et al. (2006) are used in the analysis. The empirical results do not support the assumption of constant conditional correlation and there was clear evidence of time varying correlations between the Russian stocks and bond market and both asset markets exhibit positive asymmetries. The implications of the results in this dissertation are useful for both companies and international investors who are interested in investing in Russia. Our results give useful insights to those involved in minimising or managing financial risk exposures, such as, portfolio managers, international investors, risk analysts and financial researchers. When portfolio managers aim to optimize the risk-return relationship, the results indicate that at least in the case of Russia, one should account for the local market as well as currency risk when calculating the key inputs for the optimization. In addition, the pricing of exchange rate risk implies that exchange rate exposure is partly non-diversifiable and investors are compensated for bearing the risk. Likewise, international transmission of stock market volatility can profoundly influence corporate capital budgeting decisions, investors’ investment decisions, and other business cycle variables. Finally, the weak integration of the Russian market and low correlations between Russian stock and bond market offers good opportunities to the international investors to diversify their portfolios.

Testing for granger-causality in the Finnish roundwood market

Summary

Logistic services as competitive means : segmenting the retail market for softwood lumber

Abstract

Land use response to agricultural policy and market movements on Finnish dairy-farms

Selostus: Tuki- ja hintamuutosten vaikutus maitotilojen pellon käyttöön

Whole sales market for fresh potato in Finland

Selostus: Suomen ruokaperunamarkkinoiden toimivuus