TAKING ADVANTAGE OF THE LOCAL ADVANTAGE? - Investment value of the analyst local advantage in the Finnish stock market in 2006–2014

An investor can either conduct independent analysis or rely on the analyses of others. Stock analysts provide markets with expectations regarding particular securities. However, analysts have different capabilities and resources, of which investors are seldom cognizant. The local advantage refers to the advantage stemming from cultural or geographical proximity to securities analyzed. The research has confirmed that local agents are generally more accurate or produce excess returns. This thesis tests the investment value of the local advantage regarding Finnish stocks via target price data. The empirical section investigates the local advantage from several aspects. It is discovered that local analysts were more focused on certain sectors generally located close to consumer markets. Market reactions to target price revisions were generally insignificant with the exception to local positive target prices. Both local and foreign target prices were overly optimistic and exhibited signs of herding. Neither group could be identified as a leader or follower of new information. Additionally, foreign price change expectations were more in line with the quantitative models and ideas such as beta or return mean reversion. The locals were more accurate than foreign analysts in 5 out of 9 sectors and vice versa in one. These sectors were somewhat in line with coverage decisions and buttressed the idea of local advantage stemming from proximity to markets, not to headquarters. The accuracy advantage was dependent on sample years and on the measure used. Local analysts ranked magnitudes of price changes more accurately in optimistic and foreign analysts in pessimistic target prices. Directional accuracy of both groups was under 50% and target prices held no linear predictive power. Investment value of target prices were tested by forming mean-variance efficient portfolios. Parallel to differing accuracies in the levels of expectations foreign portfolio performed better when short sales were allowed and local better when disallowed. Both local and non-local portfolios performed worse than a passive index fund, albeit not statistically significantly. This was in line with previously reported low overall accuracy and different accuracy profiles. Refraining from estimating individual stock returns altogether produced statistically significantly higher Sharpe ratios compared to local or foreign portfolios. The proposed method of testing the investment value of target prices of different groups suffered from some inconsistencies. Nevertheless, these results are of interest to investors seeking the advice of security analysts.

TAKING ADVANTAGE OF THE LOCAL ADVANTAGE? - Investment value of the analyst local advantage in the Finnish stock market in 2006–2014

An investor can either conduct independent analysis or rely on the analyses of others. Stock analysts provide markets with expectations regarding particular securities. However, analysts have different capabilities and resources, of which investors are seldom cognizant. The local advantage refers to the advantage stemming from cultural or geographical proximity to securities analyzed. The research has confirmed that local agents are generally more accurate or produce excess returns. This thesis tests the investment value of the local advantage regarding Finnish stocks via target price data. The empirical section investigates the local advantage from several aspects. It is discovered that local analysts were more focused on certain sectors generally located close to consumer markets. Market reactions to target price revisions were generally insignificant with the exception to local positive target prices. Both local and foreign target prices were overly optimistic and exhibited signs of herding. Neither group could be identified as a leader or follower of new information. Additionally, foreign price change expectations were more in line with the quantitative models and ideas such as beta or return mean reversion. The locals were more accurate than foreign analysts in 5 out of 9 sectors and vice versa in one. These sectors were somewhat in line with coverage decisions and buttressed the idea of local advantage stemming from proximity to markets, not to headquarters. The accuracy advantage was dependent on sample years and on the measure used. Local analysts ranked magnitudes of price changes more accurately in optimistic and foreign analysts in pessimistic target prices. Directional accuracy of both groups was under 50% and target prices held no linear predictive power. Investment value of target prices were tested by forming mean-variance efficient portfolios. Parallel to differing accuracies in the levels of expectations foreign portfolio performed better when short sales were allowed and local better when disallowed. Both local and non-local portfolios performed worse than a passive index fund, albeit not statistically significantly. This was in line with previously reported low overall accuracy and different accuracy profiles. Refraining from estimating individual stock returns altogether produced statistically significantly higher Sharpe ratios compared to local or foreign portfolios. The proposed method of testing the investment value of target prices of different groups suffered from some inconsistencies. Nevertheless, these results are of interest to investors seeking the advice of security analysts.

Aktiivisten ja passiivisten osakerahastojen suoriutuminen Suomen ja Euroopan markkinoilla

The performance of active and passive fund management has been extensively studied especially in the US. This thesis is focused on the performance of active and passive fund management in the Finnish and European stock markets during a five-year time span from 3/2011 to 3/2016. The aim of this study is to find out which strategy will result in better returns for the small-scale investor. The thesis questions also which strategy leads to a better profit-risk rate and how well the fund managers perform in creating added value. The data of the study consists of 44 active Finnish funds and two passive exchange traded funds available for Finnish investors. Indexes of both Finnish and European markets and a risk-free rate are used to support the analysis. The data for the thesis is collected from the DataStream database. Performance indicators that are used in the study are: return, volatility, Sharpe ratio and Jensen’s alpha. Based on the results of this study it can be concluded that in the Finnish stock market the passive strategy yielded a little better profits than the average of active funds. In the European stock market, the profits for the passive fund were significantly better than the average of active funds. Considering the profit-risk rate, neither strategy out- performed. The results of this thesis are in line with the previous studies, that encourage to favor the passive strategy.

Is it possible to utilize VIX for a profitable trading strategy of S&P 500 Index?

The goal of this research was to make an overall sight to VIX® and how it can be used as a stock market indicator. Volatility index often referred as the fear index, measures how much it costs for investor to protect his/her S&P 500 position from fluctuations with options. Over the relatively short history of VIX it has been a successful timing coordinator and it has given incremental information about the market state adding its own psychological view of the amount of fear and greed. Correctly utilized VIX information gives a considerable advantage in timing market actions. In this paper we test how VIX works as a leading indicator of broad stock market index such as S&P 500 (SPX). The purpose of this paper is to find a working way to interpret VIX. The various tests are made on time series data ranging from the year 1990 to the year 2010. The 10-day simple moving average strategy gave significant profits from the whole time when VIX data is available. Strategy was able to utilize the increases of SPX in example portfolio value and was able to step aside when SPX was declining. At the times when portfolio was aside of S it was on safety fund like on treasury bills getting an annual yield of 3 percent. On the other side just a static number’s of VIX did not work as indicators in a profit making way.

Site index model approach for drained peatland forest stands

Tiivistelmä: Pituusboniteettisovellus ojitusalueiden metsille

Site index curves for European aspen ( Populus tremula L.) growing on forest land of different soils in Sweden

Summary

The Persistence of Finnish Equity Fund Performance

Tutkimuksen tavoitteena on selvittää, esiintyykö suomeen sijoittavilla osakerahastoilla menestyksen pysyvyyttä. Tutkimusaineisto koostuu kaikista suomalaisista osakerahastoista, jotka toimivat ajanjaksolla 15.1.1998-13.1.2005. Aineisto on vapaa selviytymisvinoumasta. Suorituskyvyn mittareina käytetään CAPM-alfaa sekä kolmi- ja nelifaktori-alfaa. Empiirisessä osassa osakerahastojen menestyksen pysyvyyttä testataan Spearmanin järjestyskorrelaatiotestillä. Evidenssi menestyksen pysyvyydestä jäi vähäiseksi, vaikkakin sitä esiintyi satunnaisesti kaikilla menestysmittareilla joillakin ranking- ja sijoitusperiodin yhdistelmillä. CAPM-alfalla tarkasteltuna tilastollisesti merkitsevää menestyksen pysyvyyttä esiintyi selvästi useammin kuin muilla menestysmittareilla. Tulokset tukevat viimeaikaisia kansainvälisiä tutkimuksia, joiden mukaan menestyksen pysyvyys riippuu usein mittaustavasta. Menestysmittareina käytettyjen regressiomallien merkitsevyystestit osoittavat multifaktorimallien selittävän osakerahastojen tuottoja CAPM:a paremmin. Lisätyt muuttujat parantavat merkittävästi CAPM:n selitysvoimaa.

Closed-End Fund Discount -Case: Norvestia & Neomarkka

Tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli määrittää, kuinka suljettuja sijoitusrahastoja tulisi arvioida, jotta voitaisiin ymmärtää, miksi suljetut sijoitusrahastot arvostetaanalennuksella suhteessa niiden substanssiarvoon. Aiemmat yritykset selittää suljettujen rahastojen substanssialennusilmiö esitettiin kirjallisuuskatsauksessa. Tutkimuksen empiirinen osio suoritettiin aineistotutkimus- ja kyselytutkimusmenetelmin hyödyntäen suomalaisia suljettuja sijoitusrahastoja Norvestia Oyj:tä ja Neomarkka Oyj:tä. Teoriaosiossa esitettiin, kuinka substanssialennus on kausaalisten tekijöiden ja markkinatunnelman funktio. Suljettu sijoitusrahasto arvostetaanyli tai alle substanssiarvonsa riippuen johdon aiheuttamien kustannusten, heikosti informoitujen sijoittajien ja rahaston ulkoisen epälikviditeetin suhteesta johdon suorituskykyyn, rahaston avaamisen mahdollisuuteen ja sisäisiin likviditeettietuihin. Suomalaiset suljetut sijoitusrahastot arvostetaan alle substanssiarvonsa mahdollisesti johdon heikon suorituskyvyn, sopimuseriarvoisuuden, heikosti informoitujen sijoittajien läsnäolon ja rahaston osakkeiden epälikviditeetin takia.