Weak Form Tests of Efficient Market Hypothesis: Evidence from CEE-Countries and Russian Stock Markets

Tämän tutkielman tavoitteena on selvittää Venäjän, Slovakian, Tsekin, Romanian, Bulgarian, Unkarin ja Puolan osakemarkkinoiden heikkojen ehtojen tehokkuutta. Tämä tutkielma on kvantitatiivinen tutkimus ja päiväkohtaiset indeksin sulkemisarvot kerättiin Datastreamin tietokannasta. Data kerättiin pörssien ensimmäisestä kaupankäyntipäivästä aina vuoden 2006 elokuun loppuun saakka. Analysoinnin tehostamiseksi dataa tutkittiin koko aineistolla, sekä kahdella aliperiodilla. Osakemarkkinoiden tehokkuutta on testattu neljällä tilastollisella metodilla, mukaan lukien autokorrelaatiotesti ja epäparametrinen runs-testi. Tavoitteena on myös selvittääesiintyykö kyseisillä markkinoilla viikonpäiväanomalia. Viikonpäiväanomalian esiintymistä tutkitaan käyttämällä pienimmän neliösumman menetelmää (OLS). Viikonpäiväanomalia on löydettävissä kaikilta edellä mainituilta osakemarkkinoilta paitsi Tsekin markkinoilta. Merkittävää, positiivista tai negatiivista autokorrelaatiota, on löydettävissä kaikilta osakemarkkinoilta, myös Ljung-Box testi osoittaa kaikkien markkinoiden tehottomuutta täydellä periodilla. Osakemarkkinoiden satunnaiskulku hylätään runs-testin perusteella kaikilta muilta paitsi Slovakian osakemarkkinoilla, ainakin tarkastellessa koko aineistoa tai ensimmäistä aliperiodia. Aineisto ei myöskään ole normaalijakautunut minkään indeksin tai aikajakson kohdalla. Nämä havainnot osoittavat, että kyseessä olevat markkinat eivät ole heikkojen ehtojen mukaan tehokkaita

Osakeyhtiön varojen jakaminen ja verotus pienissä ja keskisuurissa yrityksissä

Tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli selvittää osakeyhtiön varojenjakomuotoja ja niihin liittyvää yhtiöoikeudellista ja vero-oikeudellista sääntelyä Suomessa. Tutkimukselle asetettiin neljä tehtävää: selvittää miten osakeyhtiölaki säätelee varojen jakamista osakeyhtiöstä ja mitä muutoksia uusi osakeyhtiölaki tuo säätelyyn, tutkia miten osingonjakoa verotettiin yhtiöveron hyvitysjärjestelmän mukaan ja miten uusi verolainsäädäntö vaikuttaa voitonjaon verosuunnitteluun osakeyhtiössä sekä selvittää onko osakeyhtiöiden varojenjakoon kohdistuva verotus kiristynyt. Tutkimus osoitti, että osakeyhtiölaki säätelee hyvin tarkasti varojenjakoa osakeyhtiössä. Varojenjako on sallittua voitonjakokelpoisten varojen puitteissa. Osakeyhtiölakiesityksen mukaan varojenjaossa tulee huomioida myös yhtiön maksukykyisyys. Yhtiöverohyvitysjärjestelmän aikana osingonjakoon kohdistui yksinkertainen verotus. Uudessa järjestelmässä osinkoja verotetaan myös osingonsaajalla, jolloin verotus on osittain kahdenkertaista. Joissain tapauksissa osakkaille on edullisempaa maksaa yhtiöstä palkkaa kuin osinkoja. Uudistuksen seurauksena myös verosuunnittelunmerkitys kasvaa.

Rajat ylittävien osinkojen verotus

Tutkielmassa tarkastellaan Suomessa tehtyä osinkoverouudistusta erityisesti rajat ylittävien osinkojen kannalta. Tavoitteena on selvittää, millaisia vaikutuksia on siirtymisellä uuteen osinkoverojärjestelmään, ja mitkä syyt johtivat uudistukseen. Uudessa järjestelmässä luonnollisten henkilöiden saamia osinkoja verotetaan myös osingonsaajan tasolla, jolloin syntyy ongelmia kaksinkertaisesta verotuksesta. Uudistuksen jälkeen osinkoja verotetaan melko yhtenäisesti riippumatta osingonjakajan kotimaasta. Tutkielmassa tarkastellaan myös EY-tuomioistuimen antamaa ratkaisua koskien Suomen yhtiöveron hyvitysjärjestelmää. Tarkastelun kohteena on myös EY:n perustamissopimuksessa määritelty pääomien vapaan liikkuvuuden periaate. Tutkielmassa myös vertaillaan Suomen järjestelmää muissa EU-maissa sovellettaviin järjestelmiin. Uudistuksen vaikutuksina havaitaan olevan muun muassa sijoitusmuotoneutraliteetin muuttuminen, verosuunnittelun lisääntyminen sekä yritysten voitonjakokeinojen muuttuminen.

Abnormal Returns of Dividend Announcements during a Boom and a Recession. Empirical Evidence from U.S. from the years of 2000 - 2002 and 2005 - 2007, including Finnish Extra Dividends

This study examines the short time price effect of dividend announcements during a boom and a recession. The data being used here is gathered from the years of 2000 - 2002 when it was a recession after the techno bubble burst and from the years 2005 - 2007 when investors experienced large capital gains all around the world. The data consists of dividend increases and intact observations. The aim is to find out differences in abnormal returns between a boom and a recession. Second, the study examines differences between different dividend yield brackets. Third, Finnish extra dividends, mainly being delivered to shareholders in 2004 are included to the empirical test. Generally stated, the aim is to find out do investors respect dividends more during a recession than a boom and can this be proved by using dividend yield brackets. The empirical results from U.S shows that the abnormal returns of dividend increase announcements during the recession in the beginning of this decade were larger than during the boom. Thus, investors seem to respect dividend increases more when stock prices are falling. Substantial abnormal returns of dividend increases during the time period of 2005 - 2007 could not be found. The results from the overall samples state that the abnormal returns during the recession were positively slightly higher than during the boom. No clear and strong evidence was found between different dividend yield brackets. In Finland, there were substantial abnormal returns on the announcement day of the extra dividends. Thus, indicating that investors saw the extra dividends as a good thing for shareholders' value. This paper is mostly in line with the theory that investors respect dividends more during bad times than good times.

Abnormal Return of Dividend Announcements during a Boom and a Recession. Empirical evidence from the years of 2002 - 2002 and 2005 - 2007, including the Finnish extra dividends

Tutkimuksen tavoitteena on tutkia epänormaalien tuottojen esiintymistä nousu- ja laskusuhdanteen aikana osingonilmoituspäivän ympärillä. Osinkoilmoitukset ovat kerätty Yhdysvaltojen markkinalta (NYSE) ajanjaksoilta 2000 - 2002, jolloin pörssit laskivat teknokuplan jälkeen ja 2005 - 2007, jolloin sijoittajat kokivat suuria kurssivoittoja. Osinkoilmoitushavainnot koostuvat yhtiöistä, jotka nostivat tai pitivät osinko per osake paikallaan. Tavoitteena on tutkia eroja epänormaaleissa tuotoissa näiden kahden ajanjakson välillä. Toiseksi, tavoitteena on tutkia miten epänormaalit tuotot poikkeavat toisistaan eri osinkotuottoluokissa. Kolmanneksi, tavoitteena on tutkia esiintyikö markkinoilla epänormaaleja tuottoja kun suomalaiset yritykset ilmoittivat ylimääräisistä osingoista, pääasiassa vuonna 2004. Yksinkertaisesti ja lyhyesti sanottuna tavoitteena on tutkia arvostavatko sijoittajat osinkoja enemmän laskukauden vai nousukauden aikana. Rahoitusteorian mukaan sijoittajien tulisi arvostaa laskukauden aikana enemmän yhtiöitä, jotka pystyvät maksamaan huonosta taloustilanteesta huolimatta hyvää osinkoa. Empiiriset testit Yhdysvalloista osoittavat, että osingon nostamisesta johtuvat epänormaalit tuotot olivat suuremmat laskusuhdanteen aikana kuin noususuhdanteen aikana. Tämä on linjassa teorian kanssa. Osingon-nostot aiheuttivat nousukauden aikana vähäisiä epänormaaleja tuottoja. Selviä eroja eri osingontuottoluokkien välillä ei pystytty havaitsemaan. Tulokset yhdistetystä aineistosta osoittavat, että sijoittajat kokivat vähäisiä positiivisia epänormaaleja tuottoja laskukauden aikana. Nousukautena tuotot olivat lähellä nollaa. Suomen markkinoilla havaittiin selvä epänormaalituotto osingonilmoituspäivänä. Tulokset ovat pääpiirteittäin linjassa teorian kanssa. Sijoittajat arvostavat osinkoja hieman enemmän lasku- kuin noususuhdanteen aikana.

A double madrigal

Digitoitu 12. 10. 2007.

Testing the Random Walk Hypothesis on the Baltic Stock Markets

The purpose of the thesis is to analyze whether the returns of general stock market indices of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania follow the random walk hypothesis (RWH), and in addition, whether they are consistent with the weak-form efficiency criterion. Also the existence of the day-of-the-week anomaly is examined in the same regional markets. The data consists of daily closing quotes of the OMX Tallinn, Riga and Vilnius total return indices for the sample period from January 3, 2000 to August 28, 2009. Moreover, the full sample period is also divided into two sub-periods. The RWH is tested by applying three quantitative methods (i.e. the Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test, serial correlation test and non-parametric runs test). Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression with dummy variables is employed to detect the day-of-the-week anomalies. The random walk hypothesis (RWH) is rejected in the Estonian and Lithuanian stock markets. The Latvian stock market exhibits more efficient behaviour, although some evidence of inefficiency is also found, mostly during the first sub-period from 2000 to 2004. Day-of-the-week anomalies are detected on every stock market examined, though no longer during the later sub-period.

Probiotic interventions in infancy: Benefit and Safety Assessment of Extended Applications

Immaturity of the gut barrier system in the newborn has been seen to underlie a number of chronic diseases originating in infancy and manifesting later in life. The gut microbiota and breast milk provide the most important maturing signals for the gut-related immune system and reinforcement of the gut mucosal barrier function. Recently, the composition of the gut microbiota has been proposed to be instrumental in control of host body weight and metabolism as well as the inflammatory state characterizing overweight and obesity. On this basis, inflammatory Western lifestyle diseases, including overweight development, may represent a potential target for probiotic interventions beyond the well documented clinical applications. The purpose of the present undertaking was to study the efficacy and safety of perinatal probiotic intervention. The material comprised two ongoing, prospective, double-blind NAMI (Nutrition, Allergy, Mucosal immunology and Intestinal microbiota) probiotic interventions. In the mother-infant nutrition and probiotic study altogether 256 women were randomized at their first trimester of pregnancy into a dietary intervention and a control group. The intervention group received intensive dietary counselling provided by a nutritionist, and were further randomized at baseline, double-blind, to receive probiotics (Lactobacillus rhamnosus GG and Bifidobacterium lactis) or placebo. The intervention period extended from the first trimester of pregnancy to the end of exclusive breastfeeding. In the allergy prevention study altogether 159 women were randomized, double-blind, to receive probiotics (Lactobacillus rhamnosus GG) or placebo 4 weeks before expected delivery, the intervention extending for 6 months postnatally. Additionally, patient data on all premature infants with very low birth weight (VLBW) treated in the Department of Paediatrics, Turku University Hospital, during the years 1997 - 2008 were utilized. The perinatal probiotic intervention reduced the risk of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) in the mothers and perinatal dietary counselling reduced that of fetal overgrowth in GDM-affected pregnancies. Early gut microbiota modulation with probiotics modified the growth pattern of the child by restraining excessive weight gain during the first years of life. The colostrum adiponectin concentration was demonstrated to be dependent on maternal diet and nutritional status during pregnancy. It was also higher in the colostrum received by normal-weight compared to overweight children at the age of 10 years. The early perinatal probiotic intervention and the postnatal probiotic intervention in VLBW infants were shown to be safe. To conclude, the findings in this study provided clinical evidence supporting the involvement of the initial microbial and nutritional environment in metabolic programming of the child. The manipulation of early gut microbial communities with probiotics might offer an applicable strategy to impact individual energy homeostasis and thus to prevent excessive body-weight gain. The results add weight to the hypothesis that interventions aiming to prevent obesity and its metabolic consequences later in life should be initiated as early as during the perinatal period.

Suomen osinkoverotuksen ongelmat ja uudistaminen - vertailu eri maiden osinkoverojärjestelmiin

Tämän tutkielman tarkoituksena on perehtyä Suomen nykyisen yritys- ja osinkoverojärjestelmän ongelmiin ja mahdollisiin ratkaisumalleihin. Ratkaisumalleja etsitään muiden maiden soveltamista osinkoverojärjestelmistä, joita tutkielmassa esitellään laajasti. Lisäksi arvioidaan Verotuksen kehittämistyöryhmän (18.9.2008 - 31.12.2010) uudistusehdotusta Suomen uudeksi yhteisö- ja osinkoverojärjestelmäksi. Verojärjestelmän neutraalisuus on olennainen kysymys verojärjestelmää suunniteltaessa. Eri maiden yritys- ja osinkoverojärjestelmien neutraalisuusominaisuuksia arvioidaan lainopillisen ja vertailevan menetelmän avulla. Neutraalisuusominaisuuksien lisäksi kiinnitetään huomiota myös järjestelmien luomiin kannustin- ja kokonaistaloudellisiin vaikutuksiin. Tutkielmassa todetaan Suomen nykyisen osinkoverojärjestelmän sisältävän ei-toivottuja kannustinvaikutuksia, jotka Verotuksen kehittämistyöryhmän uudistusehdotus poistaa vain osittain. Muiden maiden soveltamat järjestelmät sisältävät elementtejä, joiden soveltaminen olisi perusteltua myös Suomessa.

The Effect of Dividend Yield to Stocks’ Performance on Bullish and Bearish Finnish Stock Market

This study examines the relationship between dividend yield and stock return over bullish and bearish Finnish stock market by testing for alpha and beta shifts across bull and bear markets. In addition, this study examines if various factors, such as a standard deviation of dividends, firm size and profitability have an effect on the size, of the firms’ dividends and systematic risk of the stocks. We divide stocks into five portfolios on the basis of their past average dividend yields and investigate if the highest yielding portfolios outperform the lowest yielding portfolios during the different market conditions. As a result, high yielding stocks were most stable during the examination period and offered downside protection on bear markets. However, a strategy of forming portfolios with past dividend yields led to negative alphas even in bull markets. Standard deviation of dividends, firm size and profitability were found to have no effect on the size of dividends and systematic risk of the stocks.

Monte Carlo Hypothesis Testing with The Sharpe Ratio

The purpose of this master thesis was to perform simulations that involve use of random number while testing hypotheses especially on two samples populations being compared weather by their means, variances or Sharpe ratios. Specifically, we simulated some well known distributions by Matlab and check out the accuracy of an hypothesis testing. Furthermore, we went deeper and check what could happen once the bootstrapping method as described by Effrons is applied on the simulated data. In addition to that, one well known RobustSharpe hypothesis testing stated in the paper of Ledoit and Wolf was applied to measure the statistical significance performance between two investment founds basing on testing weather there is a statistically significant difference between their Sharpe Ratios or not. We collected many literatures about our topic and perform by Matlab many simulated random numbers as possible to put out our purpose; As results we come out with a good understanding that testing are not always accurate; for instance while testing weather two normal distributed random vectors come from the same normal distribution. The Jacque-Berra test for normality showed that for the normal random vector r1 and r2, only 94,7% and 95,7% respectively are coming from normal distribution in contrast 5,3% and 4,3% failed to shown the truth already known; but when we introduce the bootstrapping methods by Effrons while estimating pvalues where the hypothesis decision is based, the accuracy of the test was 100% successful. From the above results the reports showed that bootstrapping methods while testing or estimating some statistics should always considered because at most cases the outcome are accurate and errors are minimized in the computation. Also the RobustSharpe test which is known to use one of the bootstrapping methods, studentised one, were applied first on different simulated data including distribution of many kind and different shape secondly, on real data, Hedge and Mutual funds. The test performed quite well to agree with the existence of statistical significance difference between their Sharpe ratios as described in the paper of Ledoit andWolf.

Pricing anomalies in the Finnish stock market

The aim of this thesis is to examine whether the pricing anomalies exists in the Finnish stock markets by comparing the performance of quantile portfolios that are formed on the basis of either individual valuation ratios, composite value measures or combined value and momentum indicators. All the research papers included in the thesis show evidence of value anomalies in the Finnish stock markets. In the first paper, the sample of stocks over the 1991-2006 period is divided into quintile portfolios based on four individual valuation ratios (i.e., E/P, EBITDA/EV, B/P, and S/P) and three hybrids of them (i.e. composite value measures). The results show the superiority of composite value measures as selection criterion for value stocks, particularly when EBITDA/EV is employed as earnings multiple. The main focus of the second paper is on the impact of the holding period length on performance of value strategies. As an extension to the first paper, two more individual ratios (i.e. CF/P and D/P) are included in the comparative analysis. The sample of stocks over 1993- 2008 period is divided into tercile portfolios based on six individual valuation ratios and three hybrids of them. The use of either dividend yield criterion or one of three composite value measures being examined results in best value portfolio performance according to all performance metrics used. Parallel to the findings of many international studies, our results from performance comparisons indicate that for the sample data employed, the yearly reformation of portfolios is not necessarily optimal in order to maximally gain from the value premium. Instead, the value investor may extend his holding period up to 5 years without any decrease in long-term portfolio performance. The same holds also for the results of the third paper that examines the applicability of data envelopment analysis (DEA) method in discriminating the undervalued stocks from overvalued ones. The fourth paper examines the added value of combining price momentum with various value strategies. Taking account of the price momentum improves the performance of value portfolios in most cases. The performance improvement is greatest for value portfolios that are formed on the basis of the 3-composite value measure which consists of D/P, B/P and EBITDA/EV ratios. The risk-adjusted performance can be enhanced further by following 130/30 long-short strategy in which the long position of value winner stocks is leveraged by 30 percentages while simultaneously selling short glamour loser stocks by the same amount. Average return of the long-short position proved to be more than double stock market average coupled with the volatility decrease. The fifth paper offers a new approach to combine value and momentum indicators into a single portfolio-formation criterion using different variants of DEA models. The results throughout the 1994-2010 sample period shows that the top-tercile portfolios outperform both the market portfolio and the corresponding bottom-tercile portfolios. In addition, the middle-tercile portfolios also outperform the comparable bottom-tercile portfolios when DEA models are used as a basis for stock classification criteria. To my knowledge, such strong performance differences have not been reported in earlier peer-reviewed studies that have employed the comparable quantile approach of dividing stocks into portfolios. Consistently with the previous literature, the division of the full sample period into bullish and bearish periods reveals that the top-quantile DEA portfolios lose far less of their value during the bearish conditions than do the corresponding bottom portfolios. The sixth paper extends the sample period employed in the fourth paper by one year (i.e. 1993- 2009) covering also the first years of the recent financial crisis. It contributes to the fourth paper by examining the impact of the stock market conditions on the main results. Consistently with the fifth paper, value portfolios lose much less of their value during bearish conditions than do stocks on average. The inclusion of a momentum criterion somewhat adds value to an investor during bullish conditions, but this added value turns to negative during bearish conditions. During bear market periods some of the value loser portfolios perform even better than their value winner counterparts. Furthermore, the results show that the recent financial crisis has reduced the added value of using combinations of momentum and value indicators as portfolio formation criteria. However, since the stock markets have historically been bullish more often than bearish, the combination of the value and momentum criteria has paid off to the investor despite the fact that its added value during bearish periods is negative, on an average.