Operative Treatment of Ovarian Cancer and Borderline Tumors in Different Hospital Categories in Finland

Surgery is the cornerstone of ovarian cancer treatment and maximal cytoreduction is important. In the early 1980’s primary surgical treatment of ovarian cancer was performed in over 80 hospitals in Finland. The significance of the operative volume of the hospital, of the training of the surgeons and of centralization of surgical treatment has been widely discussed. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the outcome of surgical treatment of ovarian cancer in different hospital categories retrospectively and prospectively, and to analyze if any differences are reflected in survival. The retrospective study included 3851 ovarian cancer patients operated between 1983 and 1994 in Finland. The data was analyzed according to hospital category (university, central, and other) and by quartiles of the hospital operative volume. The results showed that patients operated in the highest operative volume hospitals had the best relative survival. When stratifying the analysis by the period of diagnosis (1983-1988 and 1989-1994), the university hospitals improved their performance the most. The prospective part of the thesis was initiated in 1999 and included 307 patients with invasive ovarian cancer and 65 patients with an ovarian borderline tumor. The baseline and 5-year surveys used a questionnaire that was filled in by the operating surgeons. For analysis of the 5-year followup data, the hospitals were divided into three categories (<10, 10-20, or >20 patients operated in 1999). The effect of the surgical volume was analyzed also as a continuous variable (1-47 operations per year). In university hospitals, pelvic lymphadenectomy was performed in 88 %, and para-aortic lymphadenectomy in 73 %, of the patients with stage I disease. The corresponding figures ranged from 11 % to 21 % in the other hospitals. For stage III ovarian cancer patients operated by gynecological oncologists, the estimated odds ratio for no macroscopic residual tumor was 3.0 times higher (95 % CI 1.2-7.5) than for those operated by general gynecologists. In the university and other hospitals 82% of the patients received platinum-based chemotherapy. Platinum + taxane combination was given to 63 % of the patients in the university and in 49 % in the other hospitals (p = 0.0763). Only a minority of the patients with tumors of borderline malignancy were staged according to recommendations, most often multiple peritoneal biopsies and omentectomy were neglected. FIGO stage, patient age, and residual tumor were independent prognostic factors of cancer-specific 5-year survival. A higher hospital operative volume was also a significant prognostic factor for better cancer-specific survival (p = 0.036) and disease-free survival (p = 0.048). In conclusion, ovarian cancer patients operated in high-volume university hospitals were more often optimally debulked and had a significantly better cancer-specific survival than patients operated in other hospitals. These results favor centralization of primary surgical treatment of ovarian cancer.

Novel Players in the Integrin Signaling Orchestra: TCPTP and MDGI

Metastases are the major cause of cancer deaths. Tumor cell dissemination from the primary tumor utilizes dysregulated cellular adhesion and upregulated proteolytic degradation of the extracellular matrix for progeny formation in distant organs. Integrins are transmembrane adhesive receptors mediating cellcell and cellmatrix interactions that are crucial for regulating cell migration, invasion, proliferation, and survival. Consequently, increased integrin activity is associated with augmented migration and invasion capacity in several cancer types. Heterodimeric integrins consist of an alpha - and beta-subunit that are held together in a bent conformation when the receptor is inactive, but extension and separation of subdomains is observed during receptor activation. Either inside-out or outside-in activation of receptors is possible through the intracellular molecule binding to an integrin cytoplasmic domain or extracellular ligand association with an integrin ectodomain, respectively. Several regulatory binding partners have been characterized for integrin cytoplasmic beta-domains, but the regulators interacting with the cytoplasmic alpha-domains have remained elusive. In this study, we performed yeast two-hybrid screens to identify novel binding partners for the cytoplasmic integrin alpha-domains. Further examination of two plausible candidates revealed a significant coregulatory role of an integrin alpha-subunit for cellular signaling processes. T-cell protein tyrosine phosphatase (TCPTP) showed a specific interaction with the cytoplasmic tail of integrin alpha1. This association stimulated TCPTP phosphatase activity, leading to negative regulation of epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) signaling and diminished anchorage-independent growth. Another candidate, mammary-derived growth inhibitor (MDGI), exhibited binding to several different integrin cytoplasmic alpha-tails through a conserved GFFKR sequence. MDGI overexpression in breast cancer cells altered EGFR trafficking and caused a remarkable accumulation of EGFR in the cytoplasm. We further demonstrated in vivo that MDGI expression induced a novel form of anti-EGFR therapy resistance. Moreover, MDGI binding to α-tails retained integrin in an inactive conformation attenuating integrin-mediated adhesion, migration, and invasion. In agreement with these results, sustained MDGI expression in breast cancer patients correlated with an increased 10-year distant disease-free survival. Taken together, the integrin signaling network is far from a complete view and future work will doubtless broaden our understanding further.

Hypoxia-associated biomarkers in rectal cancer treated by preoperative radiotherapy or chemoradiotherapy

Hypoksiaan liittyvät biologiset merkkiaineet leikkausta edeltävällä sädehoidolla tai kemosädehoidolla hoidetussa peräsuolisyövässä Peräsuolensyöpä on yleinen pahanlaatuinen kasvain. Leikkausta edeltävä sädehoito annetaan yleensä T3-T4-kasvaimille. Tutkimuksella pyrittiin selvittämään, voidaanko kasvaimen hapenpuutteeseen liittyvillä biologisilla merkkiaineilla arvioida peräsuolisyövän ennustetta leikkausta edeltävän sädehoidon tai kemosädehoidon jälkeen. Tällaisia merkkiaineita ovat hapenpuutteen vaikutuksesta aktivoituva HIF-1alfa hiilihappoanhydraasi IX (CA IX), sokerin kuljetukseen solussa osallistuva GLUT-1 sekä solun tukirankaproteiini ezrin. Tutkimukseen otettiin 178 potilasta, jotka olivat saaneet ennen leikkausta lyhyen (n=77) tai pitkän sädehoidon (n=10), pitkän sädehoidon ja solunsalpaajahoidon (n=37) tai ei mitään hoitoa (n=54). Lisäksi osalta leikkausta edeltävää sädehoitoa saaneelta potilaalta tutkittiin hoitoja edeltävät, diagnostiset näytteet (n=80). Tutkimuksessa käytettiin immunehistokemiallisia värjäysmenetelmiä. Kasvaimen regressiota (TRG) arvioitiin pitkän sädehoidon jälkeisistä näytteistä. Leikkausnäytteissä negatiivinen/heikko CA IX intensiteetti liittyi sekä pidempään tautispesifiseen (p=0.034) että tautivapaaseen elinaikaan (p=0.003) ja pitkän sädehoidon jälkeen HIF-1alfa-negatiivisuus pidempään tautispesifiseen (p=0.001) sekä negatiivinen/heikko GLUT-1 pidempään tautivapaaseen elinaikaan (p=0.066). Voimakas ezrin-ilmentymä diagnostisissa näytteissä liittyi lyhyempään tautivapaaseen ja tautispesifiseen (p=0.027 ja p=0.002) ennusteeseen. Monimuuttuja-analyysissä vahva CA IX intensiteetti leikkausnäytteissä ennusti itsenäisesti huonompaa tautivapaata ja tautispesifistä selviytymistä. Erinomainen TRG liittyi negatiiviseen/heikkoon CA IX- (p=0.057), ezrin- (p=0.012) ja GLUT-1 -ilmentymään (p=0.013) leikkausnäytteissä. Kun kaikki neljä merkkiainetta analysoitiin yhdessä monimuuttuja-analyysissä, CA IX intensiteetti leikkausnäytteissä ennusti itsenäisesti tautispesifistä elinaikaa. Voimakas CA IX-ilmentymä leikkausnäytteissä ja positiivinen HIF-1alfa- ja vahva GLUT-1-ilmentymä pitkän sädehoidon jälkeisissä leikkausnäytteissä sekä vahva ezrin-ilmentymä diagnostisissa näytteissä liittyivät epäsuotuisaan ennusteeseen. Monimuuttujaanalyysissä kohtalainen/voimakas CA IX intensiteetti leikkausnäytteissä ennusti itsenäisesti huonompaa tautivapaata ja tautispesifistä elinaikaa. CA IX on vahva biologinen merkkiaine peräsuolisyövässä.

Clinically occult metastases in patients with cutaneous melanoma. Detection with sentinel lymph node biopsy and whole body positron emission tomography

Objective: The aim of this study was to investigate the use of sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) and whole body positron emission tomography (PET), with emphasis on surgical treatment and prognosis, in the detection of clinically occult metastases in patients with clinically localized cutaneous melanoma. Patients and methods: The study population consisted of 1255 patients with clinical stage I–II cutaneous melanoma, operated at Turku University Hospital between 1983 and 2007. 334 patients underwent SLNB and they were compared to 921 retrospective patients. A subgroup of 30 symptom-free patients with high risk melanoma underwent prospectively whole body PET 6–24 months postoperatively. Results: Overall, the disease-specific survival rate was 84.4 % at five years. Sex, Breslow thickness, age and nodal status were independent prognostic factors for survival. SLNB revealed occult nodal metastases in 17 % of the patients. There was no significant difference in disease-specific overall survival between SLNB patients and controls, but the nodal disease-free time was significantly longer suggesting better local control after SLNB and subsequent completion lymph node dissection. The followup time was different between the study cohorts and initial surgery was performed during different time periods. SLNB detected micrometastases in seven of 155 patients (4.5 %) with thin T1 primary melanoma and in four of 25 patients (16 %) with head and neck melanoma. In six of 30 asymptomatic patients with high risk melanoma (20 %), whole body PET detected occult distant metastases. Conclusion: Both SLNB and whole body PET were reliable methods to detect clinically occult metastases in patients with cutaneous melanoma. This upstaging altered the treatment in each case.

Prognostic Markers and Prolonged Interferon-alpha Therapy in Renal Cell Carcinoma

Molekyylimarkkerit ja pitkäaikainen alfainterferonihoito munuaissyövässä Munuaissyöpäpotilaiden viiden vuoden elossaololuku on noin 50 %. Aikaisempien tutkimuksien mukaan viiden vuoden elossaololuku metastasoituneessa munuaissyövässä on 3-16 %, kun käytettiin alfainterferonia sisältävää hoitoa. Tyypillisesti alfainterferonia on käytetty vähemmäin kuin 6 kuukautta. Avoimia kysymyksiä ovat alfainterferonin optimaalinen hoitoannos ja hoidon kesto yksin tai yhdessä uusien täsmähoitojen kanssa. Tärkeimmät tavoitteet olivat tutkia 1) jaksotetun pitkäaikaisen alfainterferonihoidon tehoa ja siedettävyyttä metastasoituneessa munuaissyövässä ja 2) p53-, Ki-67- ja COX-2-proteiinituotannon ennusteellista merkitystä munuaissyövässä. Tutkimuksessa 117 metastasoituneelle munuaissyöpää sairastaneelle potilaalle etsittiin yksilöllinen hänen sietämänsä maksimaalinen hoitoannos rekombinanttia alfa2a-interferonia (Roferon-ATM). Hoitoa pyrittiin jatkamaan 24 kuukauden ajan. Kolmen hoitoviikon jälkeen pidettiin yhden viikon tauko. Hoito lopetettiin, jos ilmaantui vakavia haittavaikutuksia tai tauti eteni. Toisessa tutkimuksessa proteiinituotanto analysoitiin immunohistokemiallisesti munuaissyöpäpotilaiden kasvainnäytteistä, joita oli säilytetty parafiinissa. Kasvainnäytteet oli otettu talteen munuaisen poistoleikkauksen yhteydessä. Nämä potilaat jaettiin kolmeen eri ryhmään: metastasointi primaarivaiheessa (n=29), metastasointi myöhemmin (n=37) ja ei metastasointia (n=51). Keskimääräinen alfainterferonihoidon kesto oli 11 kuukautta (kk) [0,5 – 32 kk]. Objektiivinen hoitovaste todettiin 17 %:lla, tautitilanne pysyi ennallaan 42 %:lla ja myöhäinen vaste (yli 12 kk:tta hoidon aloittamisesta) todettiin 3 %:lla. Aika vasteen saavuttamisesta taudin etenemiseen oli keskimäärin 8 kk ja elinaika 19,1 kk. Viiden vuoden elossaololuku oli 16 %. Jos metastasoituneella munuaissyöpäpotilaalla oli keuhkometastasointi, hän selvisi todennäköisemmin viisi vuotta kuin muut potilaat. Henkeä uhkaavia sivuvaikutuksia ei todettu. Yli 12 kk:n ajan kestävä alfainterferonihoito on hyödyllistä niille potilaille, jotka ovat saaneet objektiivisen hoitovasteen tai tautitilanne on pysynyt ennallaan. Positiivinen p53- ja Ki-67-ekspressio yhdessä viittaavat suureen metastasoinnin todennäköisyyteen. Positiivinen COX-2-ekspressio viittaa viivästyneeseen metastaasien ilmaantumiseen. Metastasoituneilla potilailla positiiviset p53- ja Ki-67-ekspressiot viittaavat huonoon ennusteeseen, mutta positiivinen COX-2 ekspressio viittaa suotuisaan ennusteeseen. Positiivinen COX-2- ja negatiivinen Ki-67-ekspressio yhdessä viittaavat parantuneeseen ennusteeseen metastasoituneessa munuaissyövässä.

Mathematical modeling and optimal control of malaria

Malaria continues to infect millions and kill hundreds of thousands of people worldwide each year, despite over a century of research and attempts to control and eliminate this infectious disease. Challenges such as the development and spread of drug resistant malaria parasites, insecticide resistance to mosquitoes, climate change, the presence of individuals with subpatent malaria infections which normally are asymptomatic and behavioral plasticity in the mosquito hinder the prospects of malaria control and elimination. In this thesis, mathematical models of malaria transmission and control that address the role of drug resistance, immunity, iron supplementation and anemia, immigration and visitation, and the presence of asymptomatic carriers in malaria transmission are developed. A within-host mathematical model of severe Plasmodium falciparum malaria is also developed. First, a deterministic mathematical model for transmission of antimalarial drug resistance parasites with superinfection is developed and analyzed. The possibility of increase in the risk of superinfection due to iron supplementation and fortification in malaria endemic areas is discussed. The model results calls upon stakeholders to weigh the pros and cons of iron supplementation to individuals living in malaria endemic regions. Second, a deterministic model of transmission of drug resistant malaria parasites, including the inflow of infective immigrants, is presented and analyzed. The optimal control theory is applied to this model to study the impact of various malaria and vector control strategies, such as screening of immigrants, treatment of drug-sensitive infections, treatment of drug-resistant infections, and the use of insecticide-treated bed nets and indoor spraying of mosquitoes. The results of the model emphasize the importance of using a combination of all four controls tools for effective malaria intervention. Next, a two-age-class mathematical model for malaria transmission with asymptomatic carriers is developed and analyzed. In development of this model, four possible control measures are analyzed: the use of long-lasting treated mosquito nets, indoor residual spraying, screening and treatment of symptomatic, and screening and treatment of asymptomatic individuals. The numerical results show that a disease-free equilibrium can be attained if all four control measures are used. A common pitfall for most epidemiological models is the absence of real data; model-based conclusions have to be drawn based on uncertain parameter values. In this thesis, an approach to study the robustness of optimal control solutions under such parameter uncertainty is presented. Numerical analysis of the optimal control problem in the presence of parameter uncertainty demonstrate the robustness of the optimal control approach that: when a comprehensive control strategy is used the main conclusions of the optimal control remain unchanged, even if inevitable variability remains in the control profiles. The results provide a promising framework for the design of cost-effective strategies for disease control with multiple interventions, even under considerable uncertainty of model parameters. Finally, a separate work modeling the within-host Plasmodium falciparum infection in humans is presented. The developed model allows re-infection of already-infected red blood cells. The model hypothesizes that in severe malaria due to parasite quest for survival and rapid multiplication, the Plasmodium falciparum can be absorbed in the already-infected red blood cells which accelerates the rupture rate and consequently cause anemia. Analysis of the model and parameter identifiability using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods is presented.

Thyroid function in the elderly and sex hormones in elderly men: reference intervals and associations with health

Aims: The aims were to create clinically feasible reference intervals for thyroidstimulating hormone (TSH) and free thyroxine (FT4) and to analyze associations between thyroid function and self-rated health, neuropsychiatric symptoms, depression and dementia in the elderly. The second aim was also to establish reference intervals for sex hormones and to analyze associations between sex hormone levels and self-rated health, symptoms, depression and dementia in elderly men. Subjects and methods: The study population comprised 1252 subjects aged 65 years or over, living in the municipality of Lieto, south-western Finland. Self-rated health, life satisfaction, symptoms, depression, and dementia were assessed with specific questions, clinical examination and tools such as the Zung Self-report Depression Scale and the Mini-Mental State Examination. Independent variables were dichotomized, and associations of these variables with TSH, FT4 or sex hormone levels were assessed. Levels of TSH and FT4 in thyroid disease–free women and women treated with thyroxine were also compared. Results: Elevated concentrations of thyroid peroxidase antibodies (TPOAb) or thyroglobulin antibodies (TgAb) were found to have a marked effect on the upper reference limit for TSH among women, who were thyroid antibody positive more higher than suggested in several recent guidelines. After age adjustment, there were no associations between TSH levels and self-rated health, life satisfaction, or most neuropsychiatric symptoms in the thyroid disease-free population. Although women with thyroxine treatment for primary hypothyroidism had far higher TSH levels than thyroid disease-free women, there were no differences between thyroid-disease free women and women with stable thyroxine treatment regarding self-rated health, life satisfaction or symptoms. Age had a significant positive association with luteinizing hormone (LH), follicle 2 practice, one range in men aged 65 years or over can be used for T, E2 and FSH measured with the AutoDelfia method, but two separate reference intervals should be used for fT, LH and SHBG. After adjustment for age, higher levels of T and fT were associated with better self-rated health (SRH) in the reference population. After adjustment for age and body mass index (BMI), there were no associations between sex hormone concentrations and self-rated health, life satisfaction or most symptoms in concentration. Conclusion: Age-specific reference intervals were derived for thyroid function and sex hormones based on comprehensive data from a community-dwelling population with a high participation rate. The results do not support the need to decrease the upper reference limit for TSH or to lower the optimal TSH target in levothyroxine treatment in older adults, as recommended in recent guidelines. Older age or being overweight symptoms among elderly men. The associations of single symptoms with T levels were inconsistent among elderly men, although the association of low T level with diagnosed depression might be clinically significant.

Statistical Analysis of an SEIR Epidemic Model

This thesis was focussed on statistical analysis methods and proposes the use of Bayesian inference to extract information contained in experimental data by estimating Ebola model parameters. The model is a system of differential equations expressing the behavior and dynamics of Ebola. Two sets of data (onset and death data) were both used to estimate parameters, which has not been done by previous researchers in (Chowell, 2004). To be able to use both data, a new version of the model has been built. Model parameters have been estimated and then used to calculate the basic reproduction number and to study the disease-free equilibrium. Estimates of the parameters were useful to determine how well the model fits the data and how good estimates were, in terms of the information they provided about the possible relationship between variables. The solution showed that Ebola model fits the observed onset data at 98.95% and the observed death data at 93.6%. Since Bayesian inference can not be performed analytically, the Markov chain Monte Carlo approach has been used to generate samples from the posterior distribution over parameters. Samples have been used to check the accuracy of the model and other characteristics of the target posteriors.

Salivary gland cancer in Finland: Incidence, histological distribution, outcome and prognostic factors

Salivary gland cancer (SGC) is a rare cancer. The histological classification of SGC is complex and its biological behavior highly variable: it may vary from a low-grade tumor to a high-grade and often fatal malignancy. These circumstances make this cancer a diagnostic and therapeutic challenge. Older age and exposure to ionizing radiation are known risk factors. The mainstay of treatment is surgery combined with adjuvant radiation therapy, when appropriate. In addition to the histological type, the only well known prognostic factor is the TNM classification, which describes the tumor size and the amount of metastases. This study was performed using a full population-based nationwide cohort of SGC patients and tumors diagnosed in Finland in 1991-1996. The annual incidence of SGC in the entire population was, on average, 47.7 per year. By histological re-evaluation of 237 specimens the most frequent histological types were the adenoid cystic carcinoma (n=65; 27%), the mucoepidermoid carcinoma (n=45; 19%) and the acinic cell carcinoma (n=41; 17%). The highest 10-year disease-specific survival rate occurred among patients with acinic cell carcinoma (90%), followed by mucoepidermoid carcinoma (81%) and adenoid cystic carcinoma (60%). A high volume-corrected index (VCI) of Ki-67 correlated with worse survival of patients with SGC. Computer-assisted morphometric analyses of CD34-positive vessels indicated an unfavorable prognosis for patients with mucoepidermoid carcinoma and an association with poor survival among patients with acinic cell carcinoma. A high level of expression of matrix metalloproteinase-9 (MMP-9) showed a trend for a poorer prognosis in salivary duct carcinoma, and a high level of MMP-13 and a low level of MMP-1 had a trend for a poorer prognosis of patients with SGC. A low level of MMP-7 was associated with a poor prognosis of patients with acinic cell and mucoepidermoid carcinoma.

The Effects of the Breast Cancer Mammography Screening Programme in Women aged 40 to 84 years in Turku, Finland (1987-2009)

The objective of this thesis was to evaluate whether a more extensive mammography screening programme (TurkuMSP) conducted by the city of Turku, had an effect on breast cancer (BC) incidence, survival, or mortality in years 1987 to 2009. Despite the fact that some studies have suggested a 20 percent reduction in BC mortality due to mammography screening, there are findings of harm to subjects, which are claimed to negate the benefits of screening. Thus, the aims of this study are most pertinent. A total of 176 908 screening examinations were performed in 36 000 women aged 40−74 during the years 1987−1997. In all, 685 primary BCs were found in the screened women, either screen-detected (n=531) or during screening intervals (n=154). Survival and BC recurrence rate of women with screen-detected BC was compared to 184 women with clinical BCs detected among individuals who did not take part in the screening. The invitation interval, which may influence the outcome, was studied in the age group 40 to 49 by inviting those born in even calendar years annually for mammography screening and those born in odd years, triennially. In addition, BC incidence and mortality in the total female population of Turku aged 40 to 84 years was compared with the respective figures of Helsinki and the rest of Finland, both during the pre-screening era (1976-1986) and the screening era (1987-2009). The study was designed to compare women by age groups, because women aged 50 to 59 were generally screened in all of Finland, whereas only in Turku women aged 40 to 49 and 60 to 74 were screened in addition. Data regarding cancer recurrence were derived from the Finnish Cancer Registry and data on deaths were collected from Statistics Finland. In survival analyses, screened women with invasive BC had a significantly higher survival rate than the women with clinical BC. The survival benefit started to appear already during the first follow-up years and was evident in all age groups. A marginal survival extension was also seen in screened women when BC had spread to ipsilateral axillary nodes already at diagnosis. Recurrence-free survival rate after BC treatment was significantly more favorable among the screened women compared with women with BC found clinically. The screening invitation interval did not significantly influence BC mortality in the subset of women aged 40 to 49 years. There were no consistent differences in the changes of BC incidence between Turku and the comparison areas during the screening era. In Turku, the BC mortality incidence in women aged 55−69 years was significantly lower during the screening era (from 1987 to 1997) compared with the pre-screening era, whereas no such change was found in the city of Helsinki or Tampere. When comparing the changes in incidence-based BC mortality during years 1987 to 2009 in Turku to those of Helsinki and the rest of Finland, there was a suggestion of more than 20 percent lower mortality in Turku among oldest age group (75-84 years) compared with the reference residential areas, but the differences were not consistently significant. Interpretation of the study results should be made with caution because there were no random control groups, and on the other hand, the number of cases in subgroups was fairly low to yield definite conclusions. Also due to the many statistical analyses, some of the findings may be due to chance. The results are, however, suggestive for a decrease of BC mortality in the elderly age groups due to wide mammography screening. This finding needs confirmation in further studies before recommending an expansion of mammography screening to women up to the age of 74 years

Bayesian analysis of SEIR epidemic models

This thesis concerns the analysis of epidemic models. We adopt the Bayesian paradigm and develop suitable Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms. This is done by considering an Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo, former Zaïre, 1995 as a case of SEIR epidemic models. We model the Ebola epidemic deterministically using ODEs and stochastically through SDEs to take into account a possible bias in each compartment. Since the model has unknown parameters, we use different methods to estimate them such as least squares, maximum likelihood and MCMC. The motivation behind choosing MCMC over other existing methods in this thesis is that it has the ability to tackle complicated nonlinear problems with large number of parameters. First, in a deterministic Ebola model, we compute the likelihood function by sum of square of residuals method and estimate parameters using the LSQ and MCMC methods. We sample parameters and then use them to calculate the basic reproduction number and to study the disease-free equilibrium. From the sampled chain from the posterior, we test the convergence diagnostic and confirm the viability of the model. The results show that the Ebola model fits the observed onset data with high precision, and all the unknown model parameters are well identified. Second, we convert the ODE model into a SDE Ebola model. We compute the likelihood function using extended Kalman filter (EKF) and estimate parameters again. The motivation of using the SDE formulation here is to consider the impact of modelling errors. Moreover, the EKF approach allows us to formulate a filtered likelihood for the parameters of such a stochastic model. We use the MCMC procedure to attain the posterior distributions of the parameters of the SDE Ebola model drift and diffusion parts. In this thesis, we analyse two cases: (1) the model error covariance matrix of the dynamic noise is close to zero , i.e. only small stochasticity added into the model. The results are then similar to the ones got from deterministic Ebola model, even if methods of computing the likelihood function are different (2) the model error covariance matrix is different from zero, i.e. a considerable stochasticity is introduced into the Ebola model. This accounts for the situation where we would know that the model is not exact. As a results, we obtain parameter posteriors with larger variances. Consequently, the model predictions then show larger uncertainties, in accordance with the assumption of an incomplete model.