Predicting diffusion of innovations with self-organisation and machine learning

The main subject of this master's thesis was predicting diffusion of innovations. The prediction was done in a special case: product has been available in some countries, and based on its diffusion in those countries the prediction is done for other countries. The prediction was based on finding similar countries with Self-Organizing Map~(SOM), using parameters of countries. Parameters included various economical and social key figures. SOM was optimised for different products using two different methods: (a) by adding diffusion information of products to the country parameters, and (b) by weighting the country parameters based on their importance for the diffusion of different products. A novel method using Differential Evolution (DE) was developed to solve the latter, highly non-linear optimisation problem. Results were fairly good. The prediction method seems to be on a solid theoretical foundation. The results based on country data were good. Instead, optimisation for different products did not generally offer clear benefit, but in some cases the improvement was clearly noticeable. The weights found for the parameters of the countries with the developed SOM optimisation method were interesting, and most of them could be explained by properties of the products.

Factors Affecting the Forecasting Accuracy of Diffusion Models

Tutkielman tavoitteena oli tarkastella innovaatioiden leviämismallien ennustetarkkuuteen vaikuttavia tekijöitä. Tutkielmassa ennustettiin logistisella mallilla matkapuhelinliittymien leviämistä kolmessa Euroopan maassa: Suomessa, Ranskassa ja Kreikassa. Teoriaosa keskittyi innovaatioiden leviämisen ennustamiseen leviämismallien avulla. Erityisesti painotettiin mallien ennustuskykyä ja niiden käytettävyyttä eri tilanteissa. Empiirisessä osassa keskityttiin ennustamiseen logistisella leviämismallilla, joka kalibroitiin eri tavoin koostetuilla aikasarjoilla. Näin tehtyjä ennusteita tarkasteltiin tiedon kokoamistasojen vaikutusten selvittämiseksi. Tutkimusasetelma oli empiirinen, mikä sisälsi logistisen leviämismallin ennustetarkkuuden tutkimista otosdatan kokoamistasoa muunnellen. Leviämismalliin syötettävä data voidaan kerätä kuukausittain ja operaattorikohtaisesti vaikuttamatta ennustetarkkuuteen. Dataan on sisällytettävä leviämiskäyrän käännöskohta, eli pitkän aikavälin huippukysyntäpiste.

Prospects of Bitcoin diffusion

Currency is something people deal with every day in their lives. The contemporary society is very much revolving around currencies. Even though technological development has been rapid, the principle of currency has stayed relatively unchanged for a long time. Bitcoin is a digital currency that introduced an alternative to other digital currencies, and to the traditional physical currencies. Bitcoin is peer-to-peer, open source, and it erases the need of a third party in transactions. Bitcoin has since inception gained certain fame, but it has not established itself as a common currency in the world. The purpose of this study was to analyse what kind of potential does Bitcoin have to become a widely accepted currency in day-to-day transactions. The main research question was divided into three sub questions: • What kind of a process is the diffusion of new innovations? • What kinds of factors speak for the wider adoption of Bitcoin? • What kinds of factors speak against the wider adoption of Bitcoin? The purpose of the study was approached by having diffusion of innovations as the theoretical framework. The four elements in diffusion of innovations are, innovation, communication, time, and social system. The theoretical framework is applied to Bitcoin, and the research questions answered by analysing Bitcoin’s potential diffusion prospects. The body of research data consisted of media texts and statistics. In this study, content analysis was the research method. The main findings of the study are that Bitcoin has clear strengths, but it faces a large amount of uncertainty. Bitcoin’s strong areas are the transactions. They are fast, easy, and cheap. From the innovation diffusion perspective Bitcoin is still relatively unknown, and the general public’s attitudes towards it are sceptical. The research findings purport that Bitcoin has potential demand especially when the financial system of a region is dysfunctional, or when there is a financial crisis. Bitcoin is not very trusted, and the majority of people do not see a reason to start using Bitcoin in the future. A large number of people associate it with illegal activities. In general people are largely unaware of what Bitcoin is or what are the strengths and weaknesses. Bitcoin is an innovative alternative currency. However, unless people see a major need for Bitcoin due to a financial crisis, or dysfunctionality in the financial system, Bitcoin will not become much more widespread as it is today. Bitcoin’s underlying technology can be harnessed to multiple uses. Developments in that field in the future are something that future researchers could look into.

Asiakasorientaatio taloushallinnossa - Innovaation leviäminen Suomessa

Tutkielman tavoitteena oli selvittää taloushallinnon asiakasorientaation tilanne Suomessa. Asiakasorientaatio taloushallinnossa ymmärretään asiakaskannattavuuslaskentana, joka on osa asiakkuuden johtamista. Asiakaskannattavuuslaskentaa tutkittiin innovaationa ja tutkimusongelmana selvitettiin miten ja minkä tekijöiden vaikutuksesta diffuusio on tapahtunut Suomessa ajanjaksolla 1995-2006. Alatutkimusongelmina tutkittiin innovaation omaksuneiden yritysten erityispiirteitä sekä syitä innovaation hitaaseen diffuusioon. Tutkielma toteutettiin tapaustutkimuksena. Aineisto koottiin talouslehtien antamien viitteiden sekä aiheesta teetettyjen diplomitöiden ja pro gradujen case-osuuksien pohjalta. Tutkielman empiria-osiota on analysoitu sekä kvalitatiivisesti että kvantitatiivisesti, painoarvon ollessa kvalitatiivisessa tekniikassa. Asiakaskannattavuuslaskenta on levinnyt Suomeen konsultointiyritysten, yliopistojen ja median välityksellä. Innovaation leviämiseen ovat osaltaan vaikuttanut tasapainoitetun mittariston ja CRM:n levimäinen. Tärkeimpiä motiiveja ja syitä yritysten haluun omaksua innovaatio ovat kiristyvä kilpailu, tietojärjestelmien kehittyminen ja vanhan laskentajärjestelmän informatiivisyyden riittämättömyys. Syitä hitaaseen diffuusion puolestaan löytyi 1990-luvun lopun kehittymättömistä tietojärjestelmistä, markkinoinnin ja taloushallinnon erilaisista näkökannoista sekä resurssien puutteesta.

Introducing Basic Systematic Requirements Engineering Practices in Small Organizations with an Easy to Adopt Method

Requirements-relatedissues have been found the third most important risk factor in software projects and as the biggest reason for software project failures. This is not a surprise since; requirements engineering (RE) practices have been reported deficient inmore than 75% of all; enterprises. A problem analysis on small and low maturitysoftware organizations revealed two; central reasons for not starting process improvement efforts: lack of resources and uncertainty; about process improvementeffort paybacks.; In the constructive part of the study a basic RE method, BaRE, was developed to provide an; easy to adopt way to introduce basic systematic RE practices in small and low maturity; organizations. Based on diffusion of innovations literature, thirteen desirable characteristics; were identified for the solution and the method was implemented in five key components:; requirements document template, requirements development practices, requirements; management practices, tool support for requirements management, and training.; The empirical evaluation of the BaRE method was conducted in three industrial case studies. In; this evaluation, two companies established a completely new RE infrastructure following the; suggested practices while the third company conducted continued requirements document; template development based on the provided template and used it extensively in practice. The; real benefits of the adoption of the method were visible in the companies in four to six months; from the start of the evaluation project, and the two small companies in the project completed; their improvement efforts with an input equal to about one person month. The collected dataon; the case studies indicates that the companies implemented new practices with little adaptations; and little effort. Thus it can be concluded that the constructed BaRE method is indeed easy to; adopt and it can help introduce basic systematic RE practices in small organizations.

Adoption of an E-service Innovation and its Effects on Customer Service Processes in Forest Industry

Tämän tutkielman tavoitteena oli selvittää miten asiakkaille suunnattu Internet –pohjainen palvelu muuttaa asiakaspalvelua metsäteollisuudessa, ja mitkä tekijät vaikuttavat tällaisen palvelun omaksumiseen. Tutkimuksesta ilmenee että muutokset asiakaspalvelussa ovat olleet asiakkaiden mielestä pääasiassa positiivisia. Selvisi, että uuden sovelluksen laatuun ollaan tyytyväisiä, mutta että kaikki asiakkaat eivät pidä sen etuja huomattavina verrattuna vanhoihin toimintatapoihin. Esimerkkiyrityksen oma henkilöstö ei keskimäärin koe sovellusta kovin hyödylliseksi oman työnsä kannalta. Jotta sovelluksen käyttöä ja mahdollisia hyötyjä esimerkkiyritykselle saataisiin lisättyä, on sovellukseen tehtävien parannusten lisäksi panostettava tehokkaampaan kommunikointiin ja lisäkoulutukseen asiakkaille. Lisäksi on löydettävä keinoja, joiden avulla asiakkaat kokisivat sovelluksen käytön itselleen edullisemmaksi kuin pitäytymisen vanhoissa toimintatavoissa. Edellä mainitun saavuttaminen edellyttää esimerkkiyrityksen asiakaspalvelu-henkilöstön ja operatiivisen johdon sitoutumista sovelluksen aktiiviseen markkinointiin asiakkaiden suuntaan. Tutkimuksen aineisto kerättiin haastatteluilla ja asiakkaille suunnatulla kyselylomakkeella käyttäen pääasiassa kvalitatiivisia menetelmiä. Haastatteluja tehtiin kahdessa esimerkkiyrityksen yksikössä, kolmessa myyntikonttorissa sekä kahden asiakasyrityksen yhteensä neljässä eri yksikössä. Kyselylomake lähetettiin 215 asiakaskäyttäjälle, joista 30 palautti lomakkeen. Palautusprosentiksi tuli 14.

Older consumers adopting information and communication technology: Evaluating opportunities for health care applications

The purpose of this dissertation is to analyse older consumers' adoption of information and communication technology innovations, assess the effect of aging related characteristic, and evaluate older consumers' willingness to apply these technologies in health care services. This topic is considered important, because the population in Finland (as in other welfare states) is aging and thus offers a possibility for marketers, but on the other hand threatens society with increasing costs for healthcare. Innovation adoption has been under research from several aspects in both organizational and consumer research. In the consumer behaviour, several theories have been developed to predict consumer responses to innovation. The present dissertation carefully reviews previous research and takes a closer look at the theory of planned behaviour, technology acceptance model and diffusion of innovations perspective. It is here suggested that there is a possibility that these theories can be combined and complemented to predict the adoption of ICT innovations among aging consumers, taking the aging related personal characteristics into account. In fact, there are very few studies that have concentrated on aging consumers in the innovation research, and thus there was a clear indent for the present research. ICT in the health care context has been studied mainly from the organizational point of view. If the technology is thus applied for the communication between the individual end-user and service provider, the end-user cannot be shrugged off. The present dissertation uses empirical evidence from a survey targeted to 55-79 year old people from one city in Southern-Carelia. The empirical analysis of the research model was mainly based on structural equation modelling that has been found very useful on estimating causal relationships. The tested models were targeted to predict the adoption stage of personal computers and mobile phones, and the adoption intention of future health services that apply these devices for communication. The present dissertation succeeded in modelling the adoption behaviour of mobile phones and PCs as well as adoption intentions of future services. Perceived health status and three components behind it (depression, functional ability, and cognitive ability) were found to influence perception of technology anxiety. Better health leads to less anxiety. The effect of age was assessed as a control variable, in order to evaluate its effect compared to health characteristics. Age influenced technology perceptions, but to lesser extent compared to health. The analyses suggest that the major determinant for current technology adoption is perceived behavioural control, and additionally technology anxiety that indirectly inhibit adoption through perceived control. When focusing on future service intentions, the key issue is perceived usefulness that needs to be highlighted when new services are launched. Besides usefulness, the perception of online service reliability is important and affects the intentions indirectly. To conclude older consumers' adoption behaviour is influenced by health status and age, but also by the perceptions of anxiety and behavioural control. On the other hand, launching new types of health services for aging consumers is possible after the service is perceived reliable and useful.

Investointilaskelmien hyödyntäminen teknologisen innovaation myyntityössä. Tapaustutkimus

Tämän tutkimuksen tutkimuskohteena oli case-yrityksen tuoteinnovaation kannattavuuden tarkastelu. Kiristyneen ilmastopolitiikan seurauksena tutkimuksen kohdeyritys on kehittänyt innovaation ja tutkimuksen päätavoite oli laatia kohdeyritykselle innovaation myyntityön tueksi Microsoft Excel-taulukkolaskentaohjelmalla investointilaskentatyökalu. Toisena tavoitteena oli selvittää innovaation, eli liikkuvien työkoneiden hybridisoinnin, kannattavuus investointilaskelmien avulla. Investointilaskelmien lisäksi tutkimuksessa perehdyttiin korkean teknologian markkinointiin ja yritysasiakkaiden käyttäytymiseen innovaatioiden omaksujina. Tutkimus on tyypiltään laadullinen tapaustutkimus. Investointilaskentatyökalu rakennettiin kohdeyrityksen tarpeiden mukaan ja investointien kannattavuutta mitattiin korottoman ja korollisen takaisinmaksuajan, sisäisen koron sekä nettonykyarvon avulla, minkä lisäksi nettonykyarvolle tehtiin herkkyysanalyysi. Kannattavuuslaskelmat tehtiin omaksujan näkökulmasta myyntityön tueksi kohdeyritykselle. Investointilaskelmat osoittivat että kohdeyrityksen tuottama innovaatio on kannattava sijoitus ja tutkimustuloksena syntynyt konstruktio osoittautui toimivaksi. Laskelmiin vaikutti eniten investoinnin hinta ja polttoaineen hinnan nousulla oli merkittävä vaikutus investoinnin kannattavuuteen.

Innovaation diffuusio - Case sähköinen palvelualusta kiinteistöalalla

Tämän diplomityön tavoitteena oli selvittää tekijöitä, jotka hidastavat ja estävät kiinteistöalalle kehitetyn sähköisen palvelualustan käyttöönottoa isännöitsijätoimistoissa ja niiden isännöimissä taloyhtiöissä. Osana työtä perehdyttiin innovaation diffuusion liittyvään teoriaan ja kirjallisuuteen. Teoriaosuudessa selvitettiin muun muassa tutkimuksessa apuna käytettäviä malleja ja viitekehyksiä uuden tuotteen markkinointiin liittyvien esteiden jäsentämiseksi. Tutkimus toteutettiin kvalitatiivisena tutkimuksena isännöitsijätoimistojen edustajia haastattelemalla. Merkittävimmät esiin tulleet käyttöönottoa hidastavat tai estävät tekijät liittyivät epävarmuuteen palvelun hyödyistä verrattuna sen käyttöönoton vaatimaan panostukseen, palvelun käyttöönoton edellyttämiin toimintatapojen muutoksiin isännöitsijätoimistossa ja suhteessa taloyhtiöihin, johtamiseen sekä palvelun markkinointiin taloyhtiöille. Johtopäätöksenä oli, että palvelualustan markkinointia on kehitettävä ratkaisukeskeisemmäksi ja palvelun käyttöönoton tukea on parannettava ja tuotteistettava. Lisäksi tukea isännöitsijätoimistoille palvelun markkinointiin ja myyntiin taloyhtiöille on lisättävä.

Drivers and barriers of mobile travel and tourism service adoption : a study of individual perceptions and business model development in a travel and tourism context

The Travel and Tourism field is undergoing changes due to the rapid development of information technology and digital services. Online travel has profoundly changed the way travel and tourism organizations interact with their customers. Mobile technology such as mobile services for pocket devices (e.g. mobile phones) has the potential to take this development even further. Nevertheless, many issues have been highlighted since the early days of mobile services development (e.g. the lack of relevance, ease of use of many services). However, the wide adoption of smartphones and the mobile Internet in many countries as well as the formation of so-called ecosystems between vendors of mobile technology indicate that many of these issues have been overcome. Also when looking at the numbers of downloaded applications related to travel in application stores like Google Play, it seems obvious that mobile travel and tourism services are adopted and used by many individuals. However, as business is expected to start booming in the mobile era, many issues have a tendency to be overlooked. Travelers are generally on the go and thus services that work effectively in mobile settings (e.g. during a trip) are essential. Hence, the individuals’ perceived drivers and barriers to use mobile travel and tourism services in on-site or during trip settings seem particularly valuable to understand; thus this is one primary aim of the thesis. We are, however, also interested in understanding different types of mobile travel service users. Individuals may indeed be very different in their propensity to adopt and use technology based innovations (services). Research is also switching more from investigating issues of mobile service development to understanding individuals’ usage patterns of mobile services. But designing new mobile services may be a complex matter from a service provider perspective. Hence, our secondary aim is to provide insights into drivers and barriers of mobile travel and tourism service development from a holistic business model perspective. To accomplish the research objectives seven different studies have been conducted over a time period from 2002 – 2013. The studies are founded on and contribute to theories within diffusion of innovations, technology acceptance, value creation, user experience and business model development. Several different research methods are utilized: surveys, field and laboratory experiments and action research. The findings suggest that a successful mobile travel and tourism service is a service which supports one or several mobile motives (needs) of individuals such as spontaneous needs, time-critical arrangements, efficiency ambitions, mobility related needs (location features) and entertainment needs. The service could be customized to support travelers’ style of traveling (e.g. organized travel or independent travel) and should be easy to use, especially easy to take into use (access, install and learn) during a trip, without causing security concerns and/or financial risks for the user. In fact, the findings suggest that the most prominent barrier to the use of mobile travel and tourism services during a trip is an individual’s perceived financial cost (entry costs and usage costs). It should, however, be noted that regulations are put in place in the EU regarding data roaming prices between European countries and national telecom operators are starting to see ‘international data subscriptions’ as a sales advantage (e.g. Finnish Sonera provides a data subscription in the Baltic and Nordic region at the same price as in Finland), which will enhance the adoption of mobile travel and tourism services also in international contexts. In order to speed up the adoption rate travel service providers could consider e.g. more local initiatives of free Wi-Fi networks, development of services that can be used, at least to some extent, in an offline mode (do not require costly network access during a trip) and cooperation with telecom operators (e.g. lower usage costs for travelers who use specific mobile services or travel with specific vendors). Furthermore, based on a developed framework for user experience of mobile trip arrangements, the results show that a well-designed mobile site and/or native application, which preferably supports integration with other mobile services, is a must for true mobile presence. In fact, travel service providers who want to build a relationship with their customers need to consider a downloadable native application, but in order to be found through the mobile channel and make contact with potential new customers, a mobile website should be available. Moreover, we have made a first attempt with cluster analysis to identify user categories of mobile services in a travel and tourism context. The following four categories were identified: info-seekers, checkers, bookers and all-rounders. For example “all-rounders”, represented primarily by individuals who use their pocket device for almost any of the investigated mobile travel services, constituted primarily of 23 to 50 year old males with high travel frequency and great online experience. The results also indicate that travel service providers will increasingly become multi-channel providers. To manage multiple online channels, closely integrated and hybrid online platforms for different devices, supporting all steps in a traveler process should be considered. It could be useful for travel service providers to focus more on developing browser-based mobile services (HTML5-solutions) than native applications that work only with specific operating systems and for specific devices. Based on an action research study and utilizing a holistic business model framework called STOF we found that HTML5 as an emerging platform, at least for now, has some limitations regarding the development of the user experience and monetizing the application. In fact, a native application store (e.g. Google Play) may be a key mediator in the adoption of mobile travel and tourism services both from a traveler and a service provider perspective. Moreover, it must be remembered that many device and mobile operating system developers want service providers to specifically create services for their platforms and see native applications as a strategic advantage to sell more devices of a certain kind. The mobile telecom industry has moved into a battle of ecosystems where device makers, developers of operating systems and service developers are to some extent forced to choose their development platforms.

Older Consumers’ Adoption of Online Shopping

The thesis is concerned with the online shopping behavior of older adults, who in this study are at least 60 years old. At the moment, the population is ageing and consumers are buying more and more via the Internet. The objective of the thesis is to understand the large group of older adults in Finland as online customers.The study explores older consumers’ adoption of online shopping with a qualitative research, and it is situated in the research tradition of hermeneutic phenomenology. Phenomenology focuses on the life-world of people. The empirical data was collected by three focus groups with 13 participants altogether. The focus group conversations brought forth that there is not tremendous difference in the motives of older consumers to shop online compared to other age groups. The study strengthened the previous conception of a change toward more ageless market. However, online stores should be designed to accommodate some special needs of older consumers as they occasionally struggle with the logic of websites. Finnish older consumers have adopted online shopping because of perceived convenience and because of tolerable perceived risk during first online shopping experience. Positive experiences strengthen positive attitude toward electronic channel.

Reaching influential early adopters effectively in Finland : Rock Science – new generation board game

Innovations diffuse at different speed among the members of a social system through various communication channels. The group of early adopters can be seen as the most influential reference group for majority of people to base their innovation adoption decisions on. Thus, the early adopters can often accelerate the diffusion of innovations. The purpose of this research is to discover means of diffusion for an innovative product in Finnish market through the influential early adopters in respect to the characteristics of the case product. The purpose of the research can be achieved through the following sub objectives:  Who are the potential early adopters for the case product and why?  How the potential early adopters of the case product should be communicated with?  What would be the expectations, preferences, and experiences of the early adopters of the case product? The case product examined in this research is a new board game called Rock Science which is considered to be incremental innovation bringing board gaming and hard rock music together in a new way. The research was conducted in two different parts using both qualitative and quantitative research methods. This mixed method research began with expert interviews of six music industry experts. The information gathered from the interviews enabled researcher to compose the questionnaire for the quantitative part of the study. Internet survey that was sent out resulted with a sample of 97 responses from the targeted population. The key findings of the study suggest that (1) the potential early adopters for the case product are more likely to be young adults from the capital city area with great interest in rock music, (2) the early adopters can be reached effectively through credible online sources of information, and (3) the respondents overall product feedback is highly positive, except in the case of quality-price ratio of the product. This research indicates that more effective diffusion of Rock Science board game in Finland can be reached through (1) strategic alliances with music industry and media partnerships, (2) pricing adjustments, (3) use of supporting game formats, and (4) innovative use of various social media channels.

Alkavan yrityksen strategiset vaihtoehdot ja selviytyminen

Työn tavoitteena on soveltaa yrityksen perustamiseen, innovaation diffuusioon ja strategiseen suunnitteluun liittyvää teoriaa Delitaz Oy:n kehitykseen liiketoimintamahdollisuuden havaitsemisesta uudeksi yritykseksi. Työssä etsitään keinoja yrityksen kehittämän innovatiivisen tuotteen saamiseksi nopeammin markkinoille ja lähtökohtia tulevaa liiketoimintasuunnitelman päivitystä varten. Työssä kootaan yhteen uuden yrityksen perustamisen vaiheisiin, selviytymiseen ja menestymiseen liittyvää teoriaa liiketoimintamahdollisuuden havaitsemisesta uuden inno-vatiivisen tuotteen markkinoille tuomiseen ja yrityksen strategiseen suunnitteluun. Tapaus-osiossa perehdytään kohdeyrityksen perustamisen vaiheisiin, toimintaympäristöön, tuotteeseen ja liiketoimintaan. Työn menetelmänä on tapaus- kehittämis- ja toimintatutkimuksen yhdistelmä. Kehittämis- tai toimintatutkimuksen varsinainen käytännön testaamisvaihe jää työn ulkopuolelle, sillä haluttuja muutoksia lähdetään vasta toteuttamaan. Johtopäätöksinä kuvataan yhden liiketoimintamahdollisuuden kehittyminen ideasta tuotteeksi ja teknologiayritykseksi yrityksen perustamisen teoriaan verrattuna ja esitetään keinoja tuotteen markkinoille saamisen nopeuttamiseksi ja mahdollisia strategisia vaihtoehtoja liiketoimintasuunnitelman päivittämiseksi.

Adoption of smartphones - Role of brand in adopting innovations

Tässä kvalitatiivisessa pro gradu -työssä tutkittiin brändin vaikutusta innovaation adoptoinnissa. Innovaationa käytettiin älypuhelinta. Päätutkimusongelmana oli selvittää kuinka brändi vaikuttaa älupuhelimen omaksuntaan. Brändin vaikutusta tutkittiin Rogersin Diffusion of Innovation -teoriasta adoptioprosessin sekä innovaation määritteiden avulla. Sosiaalisten suhteiden vaikutusta brändin valintaan sekä innovaation adoptointiin taas tutkittiin Technology Acceptance Modelin avulla. Empiirinen osio koottiin teemahaastattelun tulosten avulla. Tulosten saamiseksi tutkimuksessa haastateltiin kymmentä yliopisto-opiskelijaa. Vastaukset osoittivat brändin merkittävää vaikutusta älypuhelimen adoptoinnissa.