Use of Statistical Methods in Demand Planning

In a very volatile industry of high technology it is of utmost importance to accurately forecast customers’ demand. However, statistical forecasting of sales, especially in heavily competitive electronics product business, has always been a challenging task due to very high variation in demand and very short product life cycles of products. The purpose of this thesis is to validate if statistical methods can be applied to forecasting sales of short life cycle electronics products and provide a feasible framework for implementing statistical forecasting in the environment of the case company. Two different approaches have been developed for forecasting on short and medium term and long term horizons. Both models are based on decomposition models, but differ in interpretation of the model residuals. For long term horizons residuals are assumed to represent white noise, whereas for short and medium term forecasting horizon residuals are modeled using statistical forecasting methods. Implementation of both approaches is performed in Matlab. Modeling results have shown that different markets exhibit different demand patterns and therefore different analytical approaches are appropriate for modeling demand in these markets. Moreover, the outcomes of modeling imply that statistical forecasting can not be handled separately from judgmental forecasting, but should be perceived only as a basis for judgmental forecasting activities. Based on modeling results recommendations for further deployment of statistical methods in sales forecasting of the case company are developed.

Statistical Methods for Conservation and Alignment Quality in Proteins

Construction of multiple sequence alignments is a fundamental task in Bioinformatics. Multiple sequence alignments are used as a prerequisite in many Bioinformatics methods, and subsequently the quality of such methods can be critically dependent on the quality of the alignment. However, automatic construction of a multiple sequence alignment for a set of remotely related sequences does not always provide biologically relevant alignments.Therefore, there is a need for an objective approach for evaluating the quality of automatically aligned sequences. The profile hidden Markov model is a powerful approach in comparative genomics. In the profile hidden Markov model, the symbol probabilities are estimated at each conserved alignment position. This can increase the dimension of parameter space and cause an overfitting problem. These two research problems are both related to conservation. We have developed statistical measures for quantifying the conservation of multiple sequence alignments. Two types of methods are considered, those identifying conserved residues in an alignment position, and those calculating positional conservation scores. The positional conservation score was exploited in a statistical prediction model for assessing the quality of multiple sequence alignments. The residue conservation score was used as part of the emission probability estimation method proposed for profile hidden Markov models. The results of the predicted alignment quality score highly correlated with the correct alignment quality scores, indicating that our method is reliable for assessing the quality of any multiple sequence alignment. The comparison of the emission probability estimation method with the maximum likelihood method showed that the number of estimated parameters in the model was dramatically decreased, while the same level of accuracy was maintained. To conclude, we have shown that conservation can be successfully used in the statistical model for alignment quality assessment and in the estimation of emission probabilities in the profile hidden Markov models.

Utilization of Statistical Methods for Management in the Forest Industry

The strongest wish of the customer concerning chemical pulp features is consistent, uniform quality. Variation may be controlled and reduced by using statistical methods. However, studies addressing the application and benefits of statistical methods in forest product sector are scarce. Thus, the customer wish is the root cause of the motivation behind this dissertation. The research problem addressed by this dissertation is that companies in the chemical forest product sector require new knowledge for improving their utilization of statistical methods. To gain this new knowledge, the research problem is studied from five complementary viewpoints – challenges and success factors, organizational learning, problem solving, economic benefit, and statistical methods as management tools. The five research questions generated on the basis of these viewpoints are answered in four research papers, which are case studies based on empirical data collection. This research as a whole complements the literature dealing with the use of statistical methods in the forest products industry. Practical examples of the application of statistical process control, case-based reasoning, the cross-industry standard process for data mining, and performance measurement methods in the context of chemical forest products manufacturing are brought to the public knowledge of the scientific community. The benefit of the application of these methods is estimated or demonstrated. The purpose of this dissertation is to find pragmatic ideas for companies in the chemical forest product sector in order for them to improve their utilization of statistical methods. The main practical implications of this doctoral dissertation can be summarized in four points: 1. It is beneficial to reduce variation in chemical forest product manufacturing processes 2. Statistical tools can be used to reduce this variation 3. Problem-solving in chemical forest product manufacturing processes can be intensified through the use of statistical methods 4. There are certain success factors and challenges that need to be addressed when implementing statistical methods

Welding time models for cost calculations in the early stages of the design process

It is generally accepted that between 70 and 80% of manufacturing costs can be attributed to design. Nevertheless, it is difficult for the designer to estimate manufacturing costs accurately, especially when alternative constructions are compared at the conceptual design phase, because of the lack of cost information and appropriate tools. In general, previous reports concerning optimisation of a welded structure have used the mass of the product as the basis for the cost comparison. However, it can easily be shown using a simple example that the use of product mass as the sole manufacturing cost estimator is unsatisfactory. This study describes a method of formulating welding time models for cost calculation, and presents the results of the models for particular sections, based on typical costs in Finland. This was achieved by collecting information concerning welded products from different companies. The data included 71 different welded assemblies taken from the mechanical engineering and construction industries. The welded assemblies contained in total 1 589 welded parts, 4 257 separate welds, and a total welded length of 3 188 metres. The data were modelled for statistical calculations, and models of welding time were derived by using linear regression analysis. Themodels were tested by using appropriate statistical methods, and were found to be accurate. General welding time models have been developed, valid for welding in Finland, as well as specific, more accurate models for particular companies. The models are presented in such a form that they can be used easily by a designer, enabling the cost calculation to be automated.

Methods and Models for Accelerating Dynamic Simulation of Fluid Power Circuits

The objective of this dissertation is to improve the dynamic simulation of fluid power circuits. A fluid power circuit is a typical way to implement power transmission in mobile working machines, e.g. cranes, excavators etc. Dynamic simulation is an essential tool in developing controllability and energy-efficient solutions for mobile machines. Efficient dynamic simulation is the basic requirement for the real-time simulation. In the real-time simulation of fluid power circuits there exist numerical problems due to the software and methods used for modelling and integration. A simulation model of a fluid power circuit is typically created using differential and algebraic equations. Efficient numerical methods are required since differential equations must be solved in real time. Unfortunately, simulation software packages offer only a limited selection of numerical solvers. Numerical problems cause noise to the results, which in many cases leads the simulation run to fail. Mathematically the fluid power circuit models are stiff systems of ordinary differential equations. Numerical solution of the stiff systems can be improved by two alternative approaches. The first is to develop numerical solvers suitable for solving stiff systems. The second is to decrease the model stiffness itself by introducing models and algorithms that either decrease the highest eigenvalues or neglect them by introducing steady-state solutions of the stiff parts of the models. The thesis proposes novel methods using the latter approach. The study aims to develop practical methods usable in dynamic simulation of fluid power circuits using explicit fixed-step integration algorithms. In this thesis, twomechanisms whichmake the systemstiff are studied. These are the pressure drop approaching zero in the turbulent orifice model and the volume approaching zero in the equation of pressure build-up. These are the critical areas to which alternative methods for modelling and numerical simulation are proposed. Generally, in hydraulic power transmission systems the orifice flow is clearly in the turbulent area. The flow becomes laminar as the pressure drop over the orifice approaches zero only in rare situations. These are e.g. when a valve is closed, or an actuator is driven against an end stopper, or external force makes actuator to switch its direction during operation. This means that in terms of accuracy, the description of laminar flow is not necessary. But, unfortunately, when a purely turbulent description of the orifice is used, numerical problems occur when the pressure drop comes close to zero since the first derivative of flow with respect to the pressure drop approaches infinity when the pressure drop approaches zero. Furthermore, the second derivative becomes discontinuous, which causes numerical noise and an infinitely small integration step when a variable step integrator is used. A numerically efficient model for the orifice flow is proposed using a cubic spline function to describe the flow in the laminar and transition areas. Parameters for the cubic spline function are selected such that its first derivative is equal to the first derivative of the pure turbulent orifice flow model in the boundary condition. In the dynamic simulation of fluid power circuits, a tradeoff exists between accuracy and calculation speed. This investigation is made for the two-regime flow orifice model. Especially inside of many types of valves, as well as between them, there exist very small volumes. The integration of pressures in small fluid volumes causes numerical problems in fluid power circuit simulation. Particularly in realtime simulation, these numerical problems are a great weakness. The system stiffness approaches infinity as the fluid volume approaches zero. If fixed step explicit algorithms for solving ordinary differential equations (ODE) are used, the system stability would easily be lost when integrating pressures in small volumes. To solve the problem caused by small fluid volumes, a pseudo-dynamic solver is proposed. Instead of integration of the pressure in a small volume, the pressure is solved as a steady-state pressure created in a separate cascade loop by numerical integration. The hydraulic capacitance V/Be of the parts of the circuit whose pressures are solved by the pseudo-dynamic method should be orders of magnitude smaller than that of those partswhose pressures are integrated. The key advantage of this novel method is that the numerical problems caused by the small volumes are completely avoided. Also, the method is freely applicable regardless of the integration routine applied. The superiority of both above-mentioned methods is that they are suited for use together with the semi-empirical modelling method which necessarily does not require any geometrical data of the valves and actuators to be modelled. In this modelling method, most of the needed component information can be taken from the manufacturer’s nominal graphs. This thesis introduces the methods and shows several numerical examples to demonstrate how the proposed methods improve the dynamic simulation of various hydraulic circuits.

Cost Models for Routing and Wavelength Assignment in Wavelength-Division Multiplexing Optical Net

WDM (Wavelength-Division Multiplexing) optiset verkot on tällä hetkellä suosituin tapa isojen määrän tietojen siirtämiseen. Jokaiselle liittymälle määrätään reitin ja aallonpituus joka linkin varten. Tarvittavan reitin ja aallon pituuden löytäminen kutsutaan RWA-ongelmaksi. Tämän työn kuvaa mahdollisia kustannuksen mallein ratkaisuja RWA-ongelmaan. Olemassa on paljon erilaisia optimoinnin tavoitteita. Edellä mainittuja kustannuksen malleja perustuu näillä tavoitteilla. Kustannuksen malleja antavat tehokkaita ratkaisuja ja algoritmeja. The multicommodity malli on käsitelty tässä työssä perusteena RV/A-kustannuksen mallille. Myöskin OB käsitelty heuristisia menetelmiä RWA-ongelman ratkaisuun. Työn loppuosassa käsitellään toteutuksia muutamalle mallille ja erilaisia mahdollisuuksia kustannuksen mallein parantamiseen.

Profiles of Second Language Learners in Bilingual Education: A Comparative Study of the Characteristics of Finnish and American Students

The purpose of this comparative study is to profile second language learners by exploring the factors which have an impact on their learning. The subjects come from two different countries: one group comes from Milwaukee, US, and the other from Turku, Finland. The subjects have attended bilingual classes from elementary school to senior high school in their respective countries. In the United States, the subjects (N = 57) started in one elementary school from where they moved on to two high schools in the district. The Finnish subjects (N = 39) attended the same school from elementary to high school. The longitudinal study was conducted during 1994-2004 and combines both qualitative and quantitative research methods. A Pilot Study carried out in 1990-1991 preceded the two subsequent studies that form the core material of this research. The theoretical part of the study focuses first on language policies in the United States and Finland: special emphasis is given to the history, development and current state of bilingual education, and the factors that have affected policy-making in the provision of language instruction. Current language learning theories and models form the theoretical foundation of the research, and underpin the empirical studies. Cognitively-labeled theories are at the forefront, but sociocultural theory and the ecological approach are also accounted for. The research methods consist of questionnaires, compositions and interviews. A combination of statistical methods as well as content analysis were used in the analysis. The attitude of the bilingual learners toward L1 and L2 was generally positive: the subjects enjoyed learning through two languages and were motivated to learn both. The knowledge of L1 and parental support, along with early literacy in L1, facilitated the learning of L2. This was particularly evident in the American subject group. The American subjects’ L2 learning was affected by the attitudes of the learners to the L1 culture and its speakers. Furthermore, the negative attitudes taken by L1 speakers toward L2 speakers and the lack of opportunities to engage in activities in the L1 culture affected the American subjects’ learning of L2, English. The research showed that many American L2 learners were isolated from the L1 culture and were even afraid to use English in everyday communication situations. In light of the research results, a politically neutral linguistic environment, which the Finnish subjects inhabited, was seen to be more favorable for learning. The Finnish subjects were learning L2, English, in a neutral zone where their own attitudes and motivation dictated their learning. The role of L2 as a means of international communication in Finland, as opposed to a means of exercising linguistic power, provided a neutral atmosphere for learning English. In both the American and Finnish groups, the learning of other languages was facilitated when the learner had a good foundation in their L1, and the learning of L1 and L2 were in balance. Learning was also fostered when the learners drew positive experiences from their surroundings and were provided with opportunities to engage in activities where L2 was used.

Verenpaineen mittaamisen opettaminen sairaanhoitaja- ja terveydenhoitajaopiskelijoille

Teaching the measurement of blood pressure for both nursing and public health nursing students The purpose of this two-phase study was to develop the teaching of blood pressure measurement within the nursing degree programmes of the Universities of Applied Sciences. The first survey phase described what and how blood pressure measurement was taught within nursing degree programmes. The second intervention phase (2004-2005) evaluated first academic year nursing and public health nursing students’ knowledge and skills results for blood pressure measurement. Additionally, the effect on the Taitoviikko experimental group students’ blood pressure measurement knowledge and skills level. A further objective was to construct models for an instrument (RRmittTest) to evaluate nursing students measurement of blood pressure (2003-2009). The research data for the survey phase were collected from teachers (total sampling, N=107, response rate 77%) using a specially developed RRmittopetus-questionnaire. Quasi-experimental study data on the RRmittTest-instrument was collected from students (purposive sampling, experimental group, n=29, control group, n=44). The RRmittTest consisted of a test of knowledge (Tietotesti) and simulation-based test (TaitoSimkäsi and Taitovideo) of skills. Measurements were made immediately after the teaching and in clinical practice. Statistical methods were used to analyse the results and responses to open-ended questions were organised and classified. Due to the small amount of materials involved and the results of distribution tests of the variables, non-parametric analytic methods were mainly used. Experimental group and control group similar knowledge and skills teaching was based on the results of the national survey phase (RRmittopetus) questionnaire results. Experimental group teaching includes the supervised Taitoviikko teaching method. During Taitoviikko students studied blood pressure measurement at the municipal hospital in a real nursing environment, guided by a teacher and a clinical nursing professional. In order to evaluate both learning and teaching the processes and components of blood pressure measurement were clearly defined as follows: the reliability of measurement instruments, activities preceding blood pressure measurement, technical execution of the measurement, recording, lifestyle guidance and measurement at home (self-monitoring). According to the survey study, blood pressure measurement is most often taught at Universities of Applied Sciences, separately, as knowledge (teaching of theory, 2 hours) and skills (classroom practice, 4 hours). The teaching was implemented largely in a classroom and was based mainly on a textbook. In the intervention phase the students had good knowledge of blood pressure measurement. However, their blood pressure measurement skills were deficient and the control group students, in particular, were highly deficient. Following in clinical practice the experimental group and control group students’ blood pressure measurement recording knowledge improve and experimental groups declined lifestyle guidance. Skills did not improve within any of the components analysed. The control groups` skills on the whole, declined statistically.There was a significant decline amongst the experimental group although only in one component measured. The results describe the learning results for first academic year students and no parallel conclusions should be drawn when considering any learning results for graduating students. The results support the use and further development of the Taitoviiko teaching method. The RRmittTest developed for the study should be assessed and the results seen from a negative perspective. This evaluation tool needs to be developed and retested.

Combining Advanced Forecasting Methods with System Dynamics - the Case of Finnish Seaports

Seaports play an important part in the wellbeing of a nation. Many nations are highly dependent on foreign trade and most trade is done using sea vessels. This study is part of a larger research project, where a simulation model is required in order to create further analyses on Finnish macro logistical networks. The objective of this study is to create a system dynamic simulation model, which gives an accurate forecast for the development of demand of Finnish seaports up to 2030. The emphasis on this study is to show how it is possible to create a detailed harbor demand System Dynamic model with the help of statistical methods. The used forecasting methods were ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) and regression models. The created simulation model gives a forecast with confidence intervals and allows studying different scenarios. The building process was found to be a useful one and the built model can be expanded to be more detailed. Required capacity for other parts of the Finnish logistical system could easily be included in the model.

Ilmaan johdettavien päästöjen tarkkailun luotettavuus sellutehtaalla

Suomen ympäristönsuojelulaki (86/200) velvoittaa toiminnanharjoittajia olemaan selvillä päästöistään ja hakemaan ympäristöluvan ympäristön pilaantumisen vaaraa aiheuttavalle toiminnalle. Sellutehtaat tuottavat tietoa merkittävimmistä ilmaan johdettavista päästöistään mittaamalla niitä jatkuvatoimisesti. Tuloksia käytetään tiedottamisessa ja päätöksenteossa. Yksi tärkeimmistä käyttökohteista on ympäristöluvan ehtojen täyttymisen seuranta. Mittaustulosten on oltava luotettavia. Luotettavuutta voidaan arvioida vertailumittauksien ja mittausepävarmuustarkastelujen avulla. Tässä työssä määritettiin mittausepävarmuudet Imatran tehtaiden kuorikattilan (LCP-kattila) NOX-mittaukselle sekä sellutehtaan meesauunien ja soodakattiloiden mittauksille. Tämän jälkeen tarkasteltiin, kuinka mittausepävarmuus huomioidaan ympäristö¬luparajaseurannassa. Lopuksi arviointiin, kuinka jatkuvatoimisten mittalaitteiden laadunvarmistusstandardia SFS-EN 141481 voidaan soveltaa Imatran tehtailla. Tarkastellut jatkuvatoimiset mittaukset todettiin varsin luotettaviksi. Etenkin NOx¬mittaukset ovat luotettavia. Kuorikattila 2:lla luotettavuutta heikentää mittauspaikan epä¬edustavuus. Rikin yhdisteiden (SO2 ja TRS) mittausten luotettavuus on alhaisempi, koska mitattavat pitoisuudet ovat pieniä. Mittausten luotettavuus on kuin vertailumittausten. Kuorikattila 2:lla Mittausepävarmuus huomioidaan NOX-pitoisuuden lupaseurannassa LCP-asetuksen mukaisesti. Sellutehtaan TRS-päästöillä mittausepävarmuus voidaan huomioida joko LCP-asetuksen mukaisesti tai tilastomatemaattisesti. Kummallakin tavalla saadaan negatiivisia luparajaan verrattavia keskiarvoja. Standardia SFS-EN 141481 voidaan soveltaa kuorikattilalla mutta sellutehtaalla se voi olla epäkäytännöllistä, eikä välittömästi paranna mittausten luotettavuutta

Asiakkuuksien strateginen arvottaminen ja luokittelu

Tämän tutkimuksen kohdeorganisaatio on suuren teollisuusyrityksen sisäinen raaka-aineen hankkija ja toimittaja. Tutkimuksessa selvitetään, mistä kohdeorganisaation hankinta-asiakkuuksien arvo muodostuu ja kuinka olemassa olevan liiketoimintadatan perusteella voidaan tutkia, arvioida ja luokitella kauppojen ja asiakkuuksien arvokkuutta aikaan sitomatta, objektiivisesti ja luotettavasti. Tutkimuksen teoriaosiossa esitellään lähestymistapoja ja menetelmiä, joiden avulla voidaan jalostaa olemassa olevasta datasta uutta sidosryhmätietämystä liiketoiminnan käyttöön, sekä tarkastellaan asiakaskannattavuusanalyysin, portfolioanalyysin, sekä asiakassegmentoinnin perusteita ja malleja. Näiden teorioiden ja mallien pohjalta rakennetaan kohdeorganisaatiolle räätälöity, indeksoituihin hinta-, määrä- ja kauppojen toistuvuus-muuttujiin perustuva, asiakkuuksien arvottamis- ja luokittelumalli. Arvottamis- ja luokittelumalli testataan vuosien 2003–2007 liiketoimintadatasta muodostetulla 389 336 kaupparivin otoksella, joka sisältää 42 186 arvioitavaa asiakkuussuhdetta. Merkittävin esille nouseva havainto on noin 5 000:n keskimääräistä selkeästi kalliimman asiakkuuden ryhmä. Aineisto ja sen poikkeavuudet testataan tilastollisin menetelmin, jotta saadaan selville asiakkuuden arvoon vaikuttavat ja arvoa selittävät tekijät. Lopuksi pohditaan arvottamismallin merkitystä analyyttisemman ostotoiminnan ja asiakkuudenhallinnan välineenä, sekä esitetään muutamia parannusehdotuksia.

Henkilöstöresurssien optimointi ja hallinta sataman operaattoriyhtiössä

Työn tavoitteena on selvittää erilaisten työaikamallien ja henkilöstön määrän vaikutuksia Finnsteven henkilöstökustannuksiin ja ylitöiden määrään. Selvitystyö toteutetaan simuloimalla vaihtoehtoisia työaikamalleja ja henkilöstömääriä tilastollisten menetelmien avulla. Työn toisena tavoitteena on ehdottaa yritykselle toimintatapaa suorittaa lopullinen henkilöstöresurssien optimointi. Työn teoriaosuudessa esitellään aluksi yritystä ja sen toimintaympäristöä. Tämän jälkeen tarkastellaan nykyisen TE-sopimuksen mahdollistamia työaikamalleja. Seuraavaksi perustellaan käytettävät tilastolliset menetelmät ja tiedonkeruumenetelmät. Edetessään työ syventyy tarkastelemaan yrityksen tekemän työn kohdentumista aikatyöhön ja ylityöhön sekä viikonpäiville että työvuoroille. Lopuksi kuvataan työn optimoinnissa käytetty logiikka, analysoidaan saatuja tuloksia ja esitellään optimointityökalun toteutussuunnitelma. Diplomityössä tehdyn selvityksen mukaan satamatyössä tehdään nykyisellään erittäin paljon ylitöitä. Siten työaikamallien optimointi on perusteltua. Optimoinnilla saavutettavat potentiaaliset kustannussäästöt ovat erittäin huomattavia. Lopullinen optimointi on haastava tehtävä, jota henkilöstöhallinto ei pysty ratkaisemaan pelkkään kokemukseensa luottaen. Tuotannonsuunnittelun avuksi tarvitaan täten työkalu, joka palvelee paitsi mallien luontia, toimii suunnittelun apuna jatkossakin.

Managing Customer Issues through a Support Channel Network

The importance of after-sales service or service in general can be seen and experienced by customers every day with industrial as well as other non-industrial services or products. This dissertation, drawing on theory and experience, focuses on practical engineering implications, specifically the management of customer issues in the after-sales phase in the mobile phone arena. The main objective of this doctoral dissertation is to investigate customer after-sales issue management, specifically regarding mobile phones. The case studies focus on issue resolution time and the issue of corrective actions. This dissertation consists of a main body and four peer-reviewed journal articles and one manuscript currently under review by a peer-reviewed journal. The main body of this dissertation examines the elements of customer satisfaction, loyalty, and retention with respect to corrective actions to address customer issues and issue resolution time through literature and empirical studies. The five independent works are case studies supporting the thesis research questions. This study examines four questions: 1) What are the factors affecting corrective actions for customers? 2) How can customer issue resolution time be controlled? 3) What are the factors affecting processes in the service chain? and 4) How can communication be measured in a service chain? In this work, both quantitative and qualitative analysis methods are used. The main body of the thesis reviews the literature regarding the elements that bridge the five case studies. The case studies of the articles and surveys lean more toward the methodology of critical positivism and then apply the interpretive approach in interpreting the results. The case study articles employ various statistical methods to analyze and to interpret the empirical and survey data. The statistical methods were used to create a model that is useful for significantly optimizing issue resolution time. Moreover, it was found that samples for verifying issues provided by the customer neither improve the perceived quality of corrective actions nor the perceived quality of issue resolution time. The term “service” in this work is limited to the technical services that are provided by product manufacturers and after-sales authorized service vendors. On the basis of this research work, it has been observed that corrective actions and issue resolution time are associated with customer satisfaction and hence, according to induction theory, to customer loyalty and retention. This thesis utilizes knowledge of marketing and customer relationships to contribute to the existing body of knowledge concerning information and communication technology for after-sales service recovery of mobile terminals. The established models in the thesis contribute to the existing knowledge of the after-sales process of dealing with customer issues in the field of mobile phones. The findings suggest that process managers could focus more on communication and training provided to the staff as new technology evolves rapidly. The study also suggest the managers formulate strategies for how customers can be kept informed on a regular basis of the status of issues that have been escalated for corrective action. The findings also lay the foundation for the comprehensive objective to control the entire product development process, starting with conceptualization. This implies that robust design should be applied to the new products so that problems affecting customer service quality are not repeated. The objective will be achieved when the entire service chain from product development to the final user can be modeled and this model can be used to support the organization at all levels.

VVER-440 Thermal Hydraulics as a Computer Code Validation Challenge

This thesis concentrates on the validation of a generic thermal hydraulic computer code TRACE under the challenges of the VVER-440 reactor type. The code capability to model the VVER-440 geometry and thermal hydraulic phenomena specific to this reactor design has been examined and demonstrated acceptable. The main challenge in VVER-440 thermal hydraulics appeared in the modelling of the horizontal steam generator. The major challenge here is not in the code physics or numerics but in the formulation of a representative nodalization structure. Another VVER-440 specialty, the hot leg loop seals, challenges the system codes functionally in general, but proved readily representable. Computer code models have to be validated against experiments to achieve confidence in code models. When new computer code is to be used for nuclear power plant safety analysis, it must first be validated against a large variety of different experiments. The validation process has to cover both the code itself and the code input. Uncertainties of different nature are identified in the different phases of the validation procedure and can even be quantified. This thesis presents a novel approach to the input model validation and uncertainty evaluation in the different stages of the computer code validation procedure. This thesis also demonstrates that in the safety analysis, there are inevitably significant uncertainties that are not statistically quantifiable; they need to be and can be addressed by other, less simplistic means, ultimately relying on the competence of the analysts and the capability of the community to support the experimental verification of analytical assumptions. This method completes essentially the commonly used uncertainty assessment methods, which are usually conducted using only statistical methods.

Accuracy improvement of a demand forecasting model

This research concerns different statistical methods that assist to increase the demand forecasting accuracy of company X’s forecasting model. Current forecasting process was analyzed in details. As a result, graphical scheme of logical algorithm was developed. Based on the analysis of the algorithm and forecasting errors, all the potential directions for model future improvements in context of its accuracy were gathered into the complete list. Three improvement directions were chosen for further practical research, on their basis, three test models were created and verified. Novelty of this work lies in the methodological approach of the original analysis of the model, which identified its critical points, as well as the uniqueness of the developed test models. Results of the study formed the basis of the grant of the Government of St. Petersburg.