Risk-return trade-off and autocorrelation

A trade-off between return and risk plays a central role in financial economics. The intertemporal capital asset pricing model (ICAPM) proposed by Merton (1973) provides a neoclassical theory for expected returns on risky assets. The model assumes that risk-averse investors (seeking to maximize their expected utility of lifetime consumption) demand compensation for bearing systematic market risk and the risk of unfavorable shifts in the investment opportunity set. Although the ICAPM postulates a positive relation between the conditional expected market return and its conditional variance, the empirical evidence on the sign of the risk-return trade-off is conflicting. In contrast, autocorrelation in stock returns is one of the most consistent and robust findings in empirical finance. While autocorrelation is often interpreted as a violation of market efficiency, it can also reflect factors such as market microstructure or time-varying risk premia. This doctoral thesis investigates a relation between the mixed risk-return trade-off results and autocorrelation in stock returns. The results suggest that, in the case of the US stock market, the relative contribution of the risk-return trade-off and autocorrelation in explaining the aggregate return fluctuates with volatility. This effect is then shown to be even more pronounced in the case of emerging stock markets. During high-volatility periods, expected returns can be described using rational (intertemporal) investors acting to maximize their expected utility. During lowvolatility periods, market-wide persistence in returns increases, leading to a failure of traditional equilibrium-model descriptions for expected returns. Consistent with this finding, traditional models yield conflicting evidence concerning the sign of the risk-return trade-off. The changing relevance of the risk-return trade-off and autocorrelation can be explained by heterogeneous agents or, more generally, by the inadequacy of the neoclassical view on asset pricing with unboundedly rational investors and perfect market efficiency. In the latter case, the empirical results imply that the neoclassical view is valid only under certain market conditions. This offers an economic explanation as to why it has been so difficult to detect a positive tradeoff between the conditional mean and variance of the aggregate stock return. The results highlight the importance, especially in the case of emerging stock markets, of noting both the risk-return trade-off and autocorrelation in applications that require estimates for expected returns.

Explaining the Shifts of International Trade in Pulp and Paper Industry

The pulp and paper industry is currently facing broad structural changes due to global shifts in demand and supply. These changes have significant impacts on national economies worldwide. In this paper, we describe the recent trends in the pulp and recovered paper (RP) production, and estimate augmented gravity models of bilateral trade for chemical pulp and RP exports with panel data. According to our results, there is some variation in the effects of the traditional gravity-model variables between pulp grades and RP. The results imply also that, in comparison to export supply, import demand plays a larger role in determining the volume of exports. Finally, it is evident that Asia, particularly China, is the most important driver of chemical pulp and RP trade: China is hungry for fiber, and must import to satisfy its growing needs. Moreover, the speed of China’s growth in chemical pulp and RP imports has been driving the increased significance of planted forests in the exports of hardwood pulp (BHKP) as well.

The structure and development of Russia's food retail sector from the point of view of Finnish food industry

Tämän diplomityön tavoitteena on selvittää Venäjän ruoan vähittäiskaupan rakenne ja sen tuleva kehitys. Tällä hetkellä se on yksi maailman nopeimmin kasvavista markkinoista. Kasvun syynä on korkea öljyn hinta, jokaon kumuloitunut ihmisten palkkoihin. Kuitenkin vaikka tulot kasvavat, ruokaan käytetty osuus tuloista on pysynyt suhteellisen vakaana. Kulutus on siis siirtymässä laadukkaampiin ja arvokkaampiin tuotteisiin Modernien kauppojen osuus markkinoista on vielä pieni, koska Venäjän vähittäiskauppasektori on yhä hajaantunut perinteisiin kauppaformaatteihin kuten kioskeihin, toreille ja pieniin ruokakauppoihin. Kauppaketjut ovat kuitenkin tulossa merkittävämmiksi. Suurin markkina-alue vähittäiskauppiaille on Moskova, mutta tällä hetkellä ketjut laajentavat toimintojaan nopeasti myös muille Venäjän alueille. Parhaat kasvunäkymät ovat alueilla, vaikka Moskovan markkinat eivät olekaan kyllästyneet. Tärkein kasvua rajoittava tekijä Moskovassa on rakennustonttien ja kiinteistöjen saatavuus. Vähittäiskauppamarkkinat lähestyvät kyllästymispistettä, josta seuraa markkinoiden konsolidaatio. Tämä prosessi on jo alkanut, mutta kovin paljon yritysostoja ei ole vielätehty. Toistaiseksi kauppaketjut ovat tyytyneet muodostamaan alliansseja. Ketjut pyrkivät parantamaan asemaansa hintaneuvotteluissa muodostamalla osto-alliansseja, luomalla omia brändejä ja käyttämällä alueellista laajentumista lyömäaseena. Jotta ruoan tuottaja pääsisi myös alueellisille markkinoille, on sen ehkä suostuttava myymään tuotteitaan edullisempaan hintaan. Tavarantoimittajat ovat vahvassa asemassa silloin, kun heillä on toimiva jakeluverkko, kyky JIT-toimituksiin,kunnollinen dokumentaatiokäytäntö, vahva brändi ja edullinen hinta. Ns. listausmaksun suuruus voi määrittää tuottajan tuotteilleen saaman hyllytilan koon.

International bioenergy trade- scenario study on international biomass market in 2020

The markets of biomass for energy are developing rapidly and becoming more international. A remarkable increase in the use of biomass for energy needs parallel and positive development in several areas, and there will be plenty of challenges to overcome. The main objective of the study was to clarify the alternative future scenarios for the international biomass market until the year 2020, and based on the scenario process, to identify underlying steps needed towards the vital working and sustainable biomass market for energy purposes. Two scenario processes were conducted for this study. The first was carried out with a group of Finnish experts and thesecond involved an international group. A heuristic, semi-structured approach, including the use of preliminary questionnaires as well as manual and computerised group support systems (GSS), was applied in the scenario processes.The scenario processes reinforced the picture of the future of international biomass and bioenergy markets as a complex and multi-layer subject. The scenarios estimated that the biomass market will develop and grow rapidly as well as diversify in the future. The results of the scenario process also opened up new discussion and provided new information and collective views of experts for the purposes of policy makers. An overall view resulting from this scenario analysis are the enormous opportunities relating to the utilisation of biomass as a resource for global energy use in the coming decades. The scenario analysis shows the key issues in the field: global economic growth including the growing need for energy, environmental forces in the global evolution, possibilities of technological development to solve global problems, capabilities of the international community to find solutions for global issues and the complex interdependencies of all these driving forces. The results of the scenario processes provide a starting point for further research analysing the technological and commercial aspects related the scenarios and foreseeing the scales and directions of biomass streams.

Solid and liquid biofuels markets in Finland - a study on international biofuels trade

This study considered the current situation of solid and liquid biofuels markets and international biofuels trade in Finland and identified the challenges ofthe emerging international biofuels markets for Finland. The fact that industryconsumes more than half of the total primary energy, widely applied combined heat and power production (CHP) and a high share of biofuels in the total energy consumption are specific to the Finnish energy system. One third of the electricity is generated in CHP plants. As much as 27% of the total energy consumption ismet by using wood and peat, which makes Finland the leading country in the use of biofuels. Finland has made a commitment to maintain greenhouse gas emissions at the 1990 level at the highest during the period 2008-2012. The Finnish energypolicy aims to achieve the target, and a variety of measures are taken to promote the use of renewable energy sources and especially wood fuels. In this study, the wooden raw material streams of the forest industry were included the international biofuels trade in addition to biomass streams that are traded for energy production. In 2004, as much as 45% of the raw wood importedinto Finland ended up in energy production. The total international trading of biofuels was evaluated at 72 PJ, of which the majority, 58 PJ, was raw wood. About 22% of wood based energy in Finland originated from imported raw wood. Tall oil and wood pellets composed the largest export streams of biofuels. The annual turnover of international biofuels trade was estimated at about ¤ 90 million fordirect trade and at about ¤ 190 million for indirect trade. The forest industryas the biggest user of wood, and the producer and user of wood fuels has a central position in biomass and biofuels markets in Finland. Lately, the international aspects of Finnish biofuels markets have been emphasised as the import of rawwood and the export of wood pellets have increased. Expanding the use of biofuels in the road transportation sector would increase the international streams ofbiofuels in Finland. In coming years, the international trading of biomass for energy purposes can be expected to continue growing.

Database Rights in Safe European Home: The Path to More Rigorous Protection of Information

1. Introduction "The one that has compiled ... a database, the collection, securing the validity or presentation of which has required an essential investment, has the sole right to control the content over the whole work or over either a qualitatively or quantitatively substantial part of the work both by means of reproduction and by making them available to the public", Finnish Copyright Act, section 49.1 These are the laconic words that implemented the much-awaited and hotly debated European Community Directive on the legal protection of databases,2 the EDD, into Finnish Copyright legislation in 1998. Now in the year 2005, after more than half a decade of the domestic implementation it is yet uncertain as to the proper meaning and construction of the convoluted qualitative criteria the current legislation employs as a prerequisite for the database protection both in Finland and within the European Union. Further, this opaque Pan-European instrument has the potential of bringing about a number of far-reaching economic and cultural ramifications, which have remained largely uncharted or unobserved. Thus the task of understanding this particular and currently peculiarly European new intellectual property regime is twofold: first, to understand the mechanics and functioning of the EDD and second, to realise the potential and risks inherent in the new legislation in economic, cultural and societal dimensions. 2. Subject-matter of the study: basic issues The first part of the task mentioned above is straightforward: questions such as what is meant by the key concepts triggering the functioning of the EDD such as presentation of independent information, what constitutes an essential investment in acquiring data and when the reproduction of a given database reaches either qualitatively or quantitatively the threshold of substantiality before the right-holder of a database can avail himself of the remedies provided by the statutory framework remain unclear and call for a careful analysis. As for second task, it is already obvious that the practical importance of the legal protection providedby the database right is in the rapid increase. The accelerating transformationof information into digital form is an existing fact, not merely a reflection of a shape of things to come in the future. To take a simple example, the digitisation of a map, traditionally in paper format and protected by copyright, can provide the consumer a markedly easier and faster access to the wanted material and the price can be, depending on the current state of the marketplace, cheaper than that of the traditional form or even free by means of public lending libraries providing access to the information online. This also renders it possible for authors and publishers to make available and sell their products to markedly larger, international markets while the production and distribution costs can be kept at minimum due to the new electronic production, marketing and distributionmechanisms to mention a few. The troublesome side is for authors and publishers the vastly enhanced potential for illegal copying by electronic means, producing numerous virtually identical copies at speed. The fear of illegal copying canlead to stark technical protection that in turn can dampen down the demand for information goods and services and furthermore, efficiently hamper the right of access to the materials available lawfully in electronic form and thus weaken the possibility of access to information, education and the cultural heritage of anation or nations, a condition precedent for a functioning democracy. 3. Particular issues in Digital Economy and Information Networks All what is said above applies a fortiori to the databases. As a result of the ubiquity of the Internet and the pending breakthrough of Mobile Internet, peer-to-peer Networks, Localand Wide Local Area Networks, a rapidly increasing amount of information not protected by traditional copyright, such as various lists, catalogues and tables,3previously protected partially by the old section 49 of the Finnish Copyright act are available free or for consideration in the Internet, and by the same token importantly, numerous databases are collected in order to enable the marketing, tendering and selling products and services in above mentioned networks. Databases and the information embedded therein constitutes a pivotal element in virtually any commercial operation including product and service development, scientific research and education. A poignant but not instantaneously an obvious example of this is a database consisting of physical coordinates of a certain selected group of customers for marketing purposes through cellular phones, laptops and several handheld or vehicle-based devices connected online. These practical needs call for answer to a plethora of questions already outlined above: Has thecollection and securing the validity of this information required an essential input? What qualifies as a quantitatively or qualitatively significant investment? According to the Directive, the database comprises works, information and other independent materials, which are arranged in systematic or methodical way andare individually accessible by electronic or other means. Under what circumstances then, are the materials regarded as arranged in systematic or methodical way? Only when the protected elements of a database are established, the question concerning the scope of protection becomes acute. In digital context, the traditional notions of reproduction and making available to the public of digital materials seem to fit ill or lead into interpretations that are at variance with analogous domain as regards the lawful and illegal uses of information. This may well interfere with or rework the way in which the commercial and other operators have to establish themselves and function in the existing value networks of information products and services. 4. International sphere After the expiry of the implementation period for the European Community Directive on legal protection of databases, the goals of the Directive must have been consolidated into the domestic legislations of the current twenty-five Member States within the European Union. On one hand, these fundamental questions readily imply that the problemsrelated to correct construction of the Directive underlying the domestic legislation transpire the national boundaries. On the other hand, the disputes arisingon account of the implementation and interpretation of the Directive on the European level attract significance domestically. Consequently, the guidelines on correct interpretation of the Directive importing the practical, business-oriented solutions may well have application on European level. This underlines the exigency for a thorough analysis on the implications of the meaning and potential scope of Database protection in Finland and the European Union. This position hasto be contrasted with the larger, international sphere, which in early 2005 does differ markedly from European Union stance, directly having a negative effect on international trade particularly in digital content. A particular case in point is the USA, a database producer primus inter pares, not at least yet having aSui Generis database regime or its kin, while both the political and academic discourse on the matter abounds. 5. The objectives of the study The above mentioned background with its several open issues calls for the detailed study of thefollowing questions: -What is a database-at-law and when is a database protected by intellectual property rights, particularly by the European database regime?What is the international situation? -How is a database protected and what is its relation with other intellectual property regimes, particularly in the Digital context? -The opportunities and threats provided by current protection to creators, users and the society as a whole, including the commercial and cultural implications? -The difficult question on relation of the Database protection and protection of factual information as such. 6. Dsiposition The Study, in purporting to analyse and cast light on the questions above, is divided into three mainparts. The first part has the purpose of introducing the political and rationalbackground and subsequent legislative evolution path of the European database protection, reflected against the international backdrop on the issue. An introduction to databases, originally a vehicle of modern computing and information andcommunication technology, is also incorporated. The second part sets out the chosen and existing two-tier model of the database protection, reviewing both itscopyright and Sui Generis right facets in detail together with the emergent application of the machinery in real-life societal and particularly commercial context. Furthermore, a general outline of copyright, relevant in context of copyright databases is provided. For purposes of further comparison, a chapter on the precursor of Sui Generi, database right, the Nordic catalogue rule also ensues. The third and final part analyses the positive and negative impact of the database protection system and attempts to scrutinize the implications further in the future with some caveats and tentative recommendations, in particular as regards the convoluted issue concerning the IPR protection of information per se, a new tenet in the domain of copyright and related rights.

Venäjän ruoan vähittäiskauppasektorin rakenne ja kehitys suomalaisen elintarviketeollisuuden näkökulmasta

This research paper focuses on the Russian food retail sector and its structure and development. At the moment it is one of the fastest growing markets today. The growth originates from high oil price, which has been accumulated to people’s wages. But even though the income increases, the share of food of all retail trade has been fairly stable. Thus, the consumption is shifting to products with more quality and value. The share of modern retail outlets is low, as the Russian retail sector is still very dispersed to traditional retail outlets such as kiosks, open markets and small grocery stores. The store chains are, however, becoming more and more significant. The biggest market for retailers is Moscow but nowadays the chains are expanding rapidly into the other regions. Even though the markets have not been saturated in Moscow, the best prospects for growth are in the regions. The most important factor restricting the growth in Moscow is the availability of real estate and land plots for stores. The market is moving forward to saturation, and a consolidation process will follow. This process has already started but not many acquisitions have been made so far. To this point the domestic chains have settled to form alliances. The chains are trying to enhance their power in price negotiations by forming purchasing alliances, introducing private label goods and using the regional expansion as a striking weapon. In order to follow the growing chains to other regions the producer must sell its products to the chains at favorable terms. Suppliers are strong in negotiations when they have a functioning distribution network, ability to JIT-deliveries, proper documentation policies, a strong brand, reliability in deliveries and a fair price. The size of the entry ticket, i.e. the listing fee may define the shelf space a producer gets in the stores.

Operative level purchasing in pharmaceutical wholesale trade

Tämän tutkintotyön tavoitteena on selvittää operatiivista ostotoimintaa, joka sisältää oikea-aikaisen tilausrytmin ja tasapainoisen tilausmäärän määrityksen sekä saapuvan tavaravirran mukauttamisen myyntiin tai kulutukseen kokonaisuutena. Tässä tutkimuksessa tarkastellaan myös varastojen merkitystä ja ostotoiminnan kannalta keskeisimpiä tehokkaaseen varastonohjaukseen liittyviä tunnuslukuja. Tutkimus sisältää lääkkeiden toimitusketjun kuvauksen, koska se poikkeaa merkittävästi muista toimialoista. Tämä tutkintotyö on syntetisoiva kirjallisuustutkimus. Tutkintotyön empiirisessä osassa analysoidaan aluksi case-yrityksen vaihto-omaisuusvaraston ohjausta ostotoiminnan näkökulmasta ABC analyysiin pohjautuen. Tämän jälkeen ostotoimintaa analysoidaan tarkemmin tiettyjen toimittajien osalta. Lopuksi laaditaan optimaalinen tilausrytmi ja tilausmäärät sekä ostobudjetti yhden toimittajan tuotteille. ABC analyysia voidaan hyödyntää työkaluna määriteltäessä miten erilaisten tuotteiden materiaalivirtoja tulisi ostotoiminnan kannalta ohjata. Analyysi perustuu resurssien keskittämiseen sinne missä tuotto on suurin.

Tilauspisteen ja tilauseräkoon määrittäminen osana ostoprosessin kehittämistä tukkukaupassa

Varastojen hallinta sisältää yksinkertaisimmillaan varastotasojen, tilauspisteiden ja tilauseräkokojen määrittämiseen liittyviä päätöksiä ja toimenpiteitä. Perinteisesti näitä päätöksiä on tarkasteltu ainoastaan yhden ohjauspisteen sisäisestä näkökulmasta. Ostoprosessin ja siihen liittyvien toimittajasuhteiden kehittämisen merkitystä varastojen hallinnassa ei ole sen sijaan täysin ymmärretty. Tässä työssä tarkastellaan sekä perinteisiä varastonohjausjärjestelmiä että ostoprosessin kehittämistä teoreettisen viitekehyksen ja empiirisen case-tutkimuksen kautta. Tutkimuksen päätarkoitus on esittää varastonimikkeiden tilausajankohdan ja –eräkoon määrittämiseen liittyviä menetelmiä. Tutkimuksen teoriaosassa muodostetaan viitekehys tuotteiden luokitteluun perustuville varastojen hallinnan menettelytavoille. Varastojen hallinnan päätöksiin vaikuttavia tekijöitä ovat mm. ostoprosessin vaiheiden operatiivinen kehittäminen, toimittajayhteistyön parantaminen toimitusketjun hallinnan ja partnership-suhteiden kautta sekä nimikkeiden kysynnän, toimitusaikojen, varastojen hallinnan kustannusten ja mittarien määrittäminen. Lisäksi kuvataan tukkukauppaan liittyviä erityispiirteitä em. seikkojen osalta. Empiirisessä osassa tarkastellaan ensin terästuotteiden tukkukaupan Oy Kontino Ab:n ostotoiminnan ja varastojen hallinnan nykytilaa. Haastatteluaineiston perusteella esitetään optimaalisia varastotäydennysmenetelmiä luokitelluille nimikkeille. Tutkimuksen mukaan varaston palvelukyvyn mittaaminen on välttämätöntä optimaalisen tilauspisteen ja –eräkoon määrittämisessä. Tukkukaupan varastojen hallintaan soveltuu parhaiten kiinteän tilausvälin järjestelmä, jossa tilaushetki on kiinteä ja eräkoko sekä tilauspiste vaihtelevat. Tutkimuksesta voidaan päätellä, että myös tukkukaupan on pyrittävä varastotasojen alentamiseen parantaakseen varastoinnin tehokkuutta ja palvelukykyä. Parannukset voidaan toteuttaa vain ymmärtämällä varastojen hallinnan ja ostoprosessin välinen läheinen yhteys ja kehittämällä strategista toimittajayhteistyötä.

State of Logistics and Operations Management in Finnish and Swedish Companies – Survey Research Findings

In this research we are examining what is the status of logistics and operations management in Finnish and Swedish companies. Empirical data is based on the web based questionnaire, which was completed in the end of 2007 and early 2008. Our examination consists of roughly 30 answers from largest manufacturing (highest representation in our sample), trade and logistics/distribution companies. Generally it could be argued that these companies operate in complex environment, where number of products, raw materials/components and suppliers is high. However, usually companies rely on small amount of suppliers per raw material/component (highest frequency is 2), and this was especially the case among Swedish companies, and among those companies, which favoured overseas sourcing. Sample consisted of companies which mostly are operating in an international environment, and are quite often multinationals. Our survey findings reveal that companies in general have taken logistics and information technology as part of their strategy process; utilization of performance measures as well as system implementations have followed the strategy decisions. In the transportation mode side we identify that road transports dominate all transport flow classes (inbound, internal and outbound), followed by sea and air. Surprisingly small amount of companies use railways, but in general we could argue that Swedish companies prefer this mode over Finnish counterparts. With respect of operations outsourcing, we found that more traditional areas of logistics outsourcing are driving factors in company's performance measurement priority. In contrary to previous research, our results indicate that the scope of outsourcing is not that wide in logistics/operations management area, and companies are not planning to outsource more in the near future. Some support is found for more international operations and increased outsourcing activity. From the increased time pressure of companies, we find evidence that local as well as overseas customers expect deliveries within days or weeks, but suppliers usually supply within weeks or months. So, basically this leads into considerable inventory holding. Interestingly local and overseas sourcing strategy does not have that great influence on lead time performance of these particular sourcing areas - local strategy is anyway considerably better in responding on market changes due to shorter supply lead times. In the end of our research work we have completed correlation analysis concerning items asked with Likert scale. Our analysis shows that seeing logistics more like a process rather than function, applying time based management, favouring partnerships and measuring logistics within different performance dimensions results on preferred features and performance found in logistics literature.