Forecasting financial weather - can we foresee market sentiment? Quantitative analysis of nodal prices in the New Zealand Electricity Spot Market

Time series of hourly electricity spot prices have peculiar properties. Electricity is by its nature difficult to store and has to be available on demand. There are many reasons for wanting to understand correlations in price movements, e.g. risk management purposes. The entire analysis carried out in this thesis has been applied to the New Zealand nodal electricity prices: offer prices (from 29 May 2002 to 31 March 2009) and final prices (from 1 January 1999 to 31 March 2009). In this paper, such natural factors as location of the node and generation type in the node that effects the correlation between nodal prices have been reviewed. It was noticed that the geographical factor affects the correlation between nodes more than others. Therefore, the visualisation of correlated nodes was done. However, for the offer prices the clear separation of correlated and not correlated nodes was not obtained. Finally, it was concluded that location factor most strongly affects correlation of electricity nodal prices; problems in visualisation probably associated with power losses when the power is transmitted over long distance.

Nitrogen and phosphorus losses in surface runoff and drainage water after application of slurry and mineral fertilizer to perennial grass ley

Selostus: Typen ja fosforin kulkeutuminen pinta- ja salaojavalunnassa lietelannalla ja NKP-lannoitteella lannoitetulta nurmelta

Comparison of methods for estimation of needle losses in Scots pine following defoliation by Bupalus piniaria

Abstract

Nitrogen and phosphorus losses from a feedlot for suckler cows

Selostus: Typpi- ja fosforikuormitus emolehmien ulkotarhassa

Reduced tillage: influence on erosion and nutrient losses in a clayey field in southern Finland

Selostus: Aurattoman viljelyn vaikutus eroosioon ja ravinnehuuhtoumiin eteläsuomlaisella, savimaalla sijaitsevalla pellolla

Quantitative proteomics in the characterization of T helper lymphocyte differentiation

The term proteome is used to define the complete set of proteins expressed in cells or tissues of an organism at a certain timepoint. Respectively, proteomics is used to describe the methods, which are used to study such proteomes. These methods include chromatographic and electrophoretic techniques for protein or peptide fractionation, mass spectrometry for their identification, and use of computational methods to assist the complicated data analysis. A primary aim in this Ph.D. thesis was to set-up, optimize, and develop proteomics methods for analysing proteins extracted from T-helper (Th) lymphocytes. First, high-throughput LC-MS/MS and ICAT labeling methods were set-up and optimized for analysing the microsomal fraction proteins extracted from Th lymphocytes. Later, iTRAQ method was optimized to study cytokine regulated protein expression in the nuclei of Th lymphocytes. High-throughput LC-MS/MS analyses, like ICAT and iTRAQ, produce large quantities of data and robust software and data analysis pipelines are needed. Therefore, different software programs used for analysing such data were evaluated. Moreover, a pre-filtering algorithm was developed to classify good-quality and bad-quality spectra prior to the database searches. Th-lymphocytes can differentiate into Th1 or Th2 cells based on surrounding antigens, co-stimulatory molecules, and cytokines. Both subsets have individual cytokine secretion profiles and specific functions. Th1 cells participate in the cellular immunity against intracellular pathogens, while Th2 cells have important role in the humoral immunity against extracellular parasites. An abnormal response of Th1 and Th2 cells and imbalance between the subsets are charasteristic of several diseases. Th1 specific reactions and cytokines have been detected in autoimmune diseases, while Th2 specific response and cytokine profile is common in allergy and asthma. In this Ph. D. thesis mass spectrometry-based proteomics was used to study the effects of Th1 and Th2 promoting cytokines IL-12 and IL-4 on the proteome of Th lymphocytes. Characterization of microsomal fraction proteome extracted from IL-12 treated lymphobasts and IL-4 stimulated cord blood CD4+ cells resulted in finding of cytokine regulated proteins. Galectin-1 and CD7 were down-regulated in IL-12 treated cells, while IL-4 stimulation decreased the expression of STAT1, MXA, GIMAP1, and GIMAP4. Interestingly, the transcription of both GIMAP genes was up-regulated in Th1 polarized cells and down-regulated in Th2 promoting conditions.

Quantitative elemental analysis of dry-ashed bark and wood samples of birch, spruce and pine from south-western Finland using PIXE

A total of over 200 different samples of bark and wood of Silver birch, Norway spruce and Scots pine were analysed. Samples were taken from several areas in western Finland, some with known sources of atmospheric heavy metal emission (Harjavalta, Ykspihlaja). Also analytical data for pine needles from some sites are reported. The chemical analyses were performed by thick-target particle-induced X-ray emission (PIXE) spectrometry after preconcentration by dry ashing of samples at 550oC. The following elements were quantified in most of the samples: P, S, K, Ca, Mn, Fe, Ni, Cu, Zn, Rb, Sr, Cd, Ba and Pb. The ash percentage and the chemical composition of ashes of different wood materials were also obtained, as dry ashing was used in the analytical procedure. The variations in elemental concentrations in wood and bark of an individual tree, expressed as RSDs, were mostly in the range 10 – 20 %. For several trees of the same species sampled from small areas (< 1 ha), the variations in elemental concentrations were surprisingly high (RSDs 20 – 50 %). In the vicinity of metal plants, effects of strong atmospheric heavy metal pollution (pollution factor above 100) were observed in pine bark. The increase of heavy metal content in wood samples from the same sites was quite small. Elemental concentrations in ashes of bark and wood, from areas with no local source of atmospheric pollution, were relatively uniform. Based on this observation an alternative way of demonstrating atmospheric pollution of tree bark is discussed.

Quantitative market and sales forecast accuracy analysis

The main objective of this master’s thesis was to quantitatively study the reliability of market and sales forecasts of a certain company by measuring bias, precision and accuracy of these forecasts by comparing forecasts against actual values. Secondly, the differences of bias, precision and accuracy between markets were explained by various macroeconomic variables and market characteristics. Accuracy and precision of the forecasts seems to vary significantly depending on the market that is being forecasted, the variable that is being forecasted, the estimation period, the length of the estimated period, the forecast horizon and the granularity of the data. High inflation, low income level and high year-on-year market volatility seems to be related with higher annual market forecast uncertainty and high year-on-year sales volatility with higher sales forecast uncertainty. When quarterly market size is forecasted, correlation between macroeconomic variables and forecast errors reduces. Uncertainty of the sales forecasts cannot be explained with macroeconomic variables. Longer forecasts are more uncertain, shorter estimated period leads to higher uncertainty, and usually more recent market forecasts are less uncertain. Sales forecasts seem to be more uncertain than market forecasts, because they incorporate both market size and market share risks. When lead time is more than one year, forecast risk seems to grow as a function of root forecast horizon. When lead time is less than year, sequential error terms are typically correlated, and therefore forecast errors are trending or mean-reverting. The bias of forecasts seems to change in cycles, and therefore the future forecasts cannot be systematically adjusted with it. The MASE cannot be used to measure whether the forecast can anticipate year-on-year volatility. Instead, we constructed a new relative accuracy measure to cope with this particular situation.

Eddy-current losses in rotor surface mounted permanent magnets

The aim of the work is to study the existing analytical calculation procedures found in literature to calculate the eddy-current losses in surface mounted permanent magnets within PMSM application. The most promising algorithms are implemented with MATLAB software under the dimensional data of LUT prototype machine. In addition finite elements analyze, utilized with help of Flux 2D software from Cedrat Ltd, is applied to calculate the eddy-current losses in permanent magnets. The results obtained from analytical methods are compared with numerical results.

Factors Affecting Consumer’s Illicit Purchase of Copyrighted Digital Work

Peer-to-Peer (P2P) technology has revolutionized file exchange activities besides enhancing processing power distribution. As such, this technology which is nowadays made freely available to all internet users also imposes a threat as it enables the illegal distribution of copyrighted digital work. P2P technology continuously evolves in a greater pace than copyright legislation, leading to compatibility gaps between the applicability of copyright law and the illicit file sharing and downloading. Such issues give high incentives to consumers to practise piracy using P2P systems with a low perception of risk towards prosecution, leading to substantial losses for copyright owners. This study focuses on developing insights for content owners on consumer behaviour towards piracy in Finland, where quantitative analyses are assessed using a data set based on a survey conducted by the Helsinki Institute for IT. The research approach investigates the significance of three fundamental areas in relation to evaluate consumer behaviour as: environmental-related factors, innovation-related factors and consumer-related. each of these are integrates concepts derived in previous theoretical models such as the technology acceptance model, theory of reasoned action, theory of planned behaviour, the issue-risk-judgement model and the Hunt & Vitell’s model.

Delivery Reliability: Timely and Quantitative Accuracy in a Forest Industry Company

The primary objective of this thesis was to research delivery reliability of mill business unit of a forest industry company, especially timely and quantitative accuracy of sales orders. Delivery reliability is an important factor of customer satisfaction, which has a great influence for success of a company. The secondary objective was to find out reasons for possible problems of delivery reliability and give propositions for improvable performances. The empirical part of the thesis based on reporting database of the forest industry company’s ERP-software and detailed information of the mill system. The delivery reliability results of the mill business unit were compared to delivery reliability of similar mill business unit inside the forest industry company. The research results expressed problems in the supply chain. The delivery reliability reporting should be also developed further. This would advance delivery reliability monitoring. The improvement propositions of the thesis were logistic operation mode estimation, particular benchmarking of the compared mill business unit and more detailed survey on production delivery reliability.