From Fluid Dynamics to Human Psychology.What Drives Financial Markets Towards Extreme Events

For decades researchers have been trying to build models that would help understand price performance in financial markets and, therefore, to be able to forecast future prices. However, any econometric approaches have notoriously failed in predicting extreme events in markets. At the end of 20th century, market specialists started to admit that the reasons for economy meltdowns may originate as much in rational actions of traders as in human psychology. The latter forces have been described as trading biases, also known as animal spirits. This study aims at expressing in mathematical form some of the basic trading biases as well as the idea of market momentum and, therefore, reconstructing the dynamics of prices in financial markets. It is proposed through a novel family of models originating in population and fluid dynamics, applied to an electricity spot price time series. The main goal of this work is to investigate via numerical solutions how well theequations succeed in reproducing the real market time series properties, especially those that seemingly contradict standard assumptions of neoclassical economic theory, in particular the Efficient Market Hypothesis. The results show that the proposed model is able to generate price realizations that closely reproduce the behaviour and statistics of the original electricity spot price. That is achieved in all price levels, from small and medium-range variations to price spikes. The latter were generated from price dynamics and market momentum, without superimposing jump processes in the model. In the light of the presented results, it seems that the latest assumptions about human psychology and market momentum ruling market dynamics may be true. Therefore, other commodity markets should be analyzed with this model as well.

Proactive and Preventive Student Welfare Activities in Finnish Preschool and Elementary School: Handling of Transition to Formal Schooling and a National Anti-Bullying Program as Examples

Prerequisites and effects of proactive and preventive psycho-social student welfare activities in Finnish preschool and elementary school were of interest in the present thesis. So far, Finnish student welfare work has mainly focused on interventions and individuals, and the voluminous possibilities to enhance well-being of all students as a part of everyday school work have not been fully exploited. Consequently, in this thesis three goals were set: (1) To present concrete examples of proactive and preventive psycho-social student welfare activities in Finnish basic education; (2) To investigate measurable positive effects of proactive and preventive activities; and (3) To investigate implementation of proactive and preventive activities in ecological contexts. Two prominent phenomena in preschool and elementary school years—transition to formal schooling and school bullying—were chosen as examples of critical situations that are appropriate targets for proactive and preventive psycho-social student welfare activities. Until lately, the procedures concerning both school transitions and school bullying have been rather problem-focused and reactive in nature. Theoretically, we lean on the bioecological model of development by Bronfenbrenner and Morris with concentric micro-, meso-, exo- and macrosystems. Data were drawn from two large-scale research projects, the longitudinal First Steps Study: Interactive Learning in the Child–Parent– Teacher Triangle, and the Evaluation Study of the National Antibullying Program KiVa. In Study I, we found that the academic skills of children from preschool–elementary school pairs that implemented several supportive activities during the preschool year developed more quickly from preschool to Grade 1 compared with the skills of children from pairs that used fewer practices. In Study II, we focused on possible effects of proactive and preventive actions on teachers and found that participation in the KiVa antibullying program influenced teachers‘ self-evaluated competence to tackle bullying. In Studies III and IV, we investigated factors that affect implementation rate of these proactive and preventive actions. In Study III, we found that principal‘s commitment and support for antibullying work has a clear-cut positive effect on implementation adherence of student lessons of the KiVa antibullying program. The more teachers experience support for and commitment to anti-bullying work from their principal, the more they report having covered KiVa student lessons and topics. In Study IV, we wanted to find out why some schools implement several useful and inexpensive transition practices, whereas other schools use only a few of them. We were interested in broadening the scope and looking at local-level (exosystem) qualities, and, in fact, the local-level activities and guidelines, along with teacherreported importance of the transition practices, were the only factors significantly associated with the implementation rate of transition practices between elementary schools and partner preschools. Teacher- and school-level factors available in this study turned out to be mostly not significant. To summarize, the results confirm that school-based promotion and prevention activities may have beneficial effects not only on students but also on teachers. Second, various top-down processes, such as engagement at the level of elementary school principals or local administration may enhance implementation of these beneficial activities. The main message is that when aiming to support the lives of children the primary focus should be on adults. In future, promotion of psychosocial well-being and the intrinsic value of inter- and intrapersonal skills need to be strengthened in the Finnish educational systems. Future research efforts in student welfare and school psychology, as well as focused training for psychologists in educational contexts, should be encouraged in the departments of psychology and education in Finnish universities. Moreover, a specific research centre for school health and well-being should be established.

Threat Simulation- The Function of Dreaming?

Dreaming is a pure form of phenomenality, created by the brain untouched by external stimulation or behavioral activity, yet including a full range of phenomenal contents. Thus, it has been suggested that the dreaming brain could be used as a model system in a biological research program on consciousness (Revonsuo, 2006). In the present thesis, the philosophical view of biological realism is accepted, and thus, dreaming is considered as a natural biological phenomenon, explainable in naturalistic terms. The major theoretical contribution of the present thesis is that it explores dreaming from a multidisciplinary perspective, integrating information from various fields of science, such as dream research, consciousness research, evolutionary psychology, and cognitive neuroscience. Further, it places dreaming into a multilevel framework, and investigates the constitutive, etiological, and contextual explanations for dreaming. Currently, the only theory offering a full multilevel explanation for dreaming, that is, a theory including constitutive, etiological, and contextual level explanations, is the Threat Simulation Theory (TST) (Revonsuo, 2000a; 2000b). The empirical significance of the present thesis lies in the tests conducted to test this specific theory put forth to explain the form, content, and biological function of dreaming. The first step in the empirical testing of the TST was to define exact criteria for what is a ‘threatening event’ in dreams, and then to develop a detailed and reliable content analysis scale with which it is possible to empirically explore and quantify threatening events in dreams. The second step was to seek answers to the following questions derived from the TST: How frequent threatening events are in dreams? What kind of qualities these events have? How threatening events in dreams relate to the most recently encoded or the most salient memory traces of threatening events experienced in waking life? What are the effects of exposure to severe waking life threat on dreams? The results reveal that threatening events are relatively frequent in dreams, and that the simulated threats are realistic. The most common threats include aggression, are targeted mainly against the dream self, and include simulations of relevant and appropriate defensive actions. Further, real threat experiences activate the threat simulation system in a unique manner, and dream content is modulated by the activation of long term episodic memory traces with highest negative saliency. To sum up, most of the predictions of the TST tested in this thesis received considerable support. The TST presents a strong argument that explains the specific design of dreams as threat simulations. The TST also offers a plausible explanation for why dreaming would have been selected for: because dreaming interacted with the environment in such a way that enhanced fitness of ancestral humans. By referring to a single threat simulation mechanism it furthermore manages to explain a wide variety of dream content data that already exists in the literature, and to predict the overall statistical patterns of threat content in different samples of dreams. The TST and the empirical tests conducted to test the theory are a prime example of what a multidisciplinary approach to mental phenomena can accomplish. Thus far, dreaming seems to have always resided in the periphery of science, never regarded worth to be studied by the mainstream. Nevertheless, when brought to the spotlight, the study of dreaming can greatly benefit from ideas in diverse branches of science. Vice versa, knowledge learned from the study of dreaming can be applied in various disciplines. The main contribution of the present thesis lies in putting dreaming back where it belongs, that is, into the spotlight in the cross-road of various disciplines.

Avoimen lähdekoodin musiikkiteknologia

Musiikkiteknologia on laaja soveltava tieteenala, jota voidaan hyödyntää kasvatustieteissä, psykologiassa ja kognitiivisissa tieteissä. Musiikkilaitteet ja ohjelmistot hyödyntävät tietotekniikkaa. Musiikkiteknologian ohjelmat ovat joko kaupallisia tai pohjautuvat avoimen lähdekoodin ajatteluun. Tässä työssä kartoitin Linuxin avoimen lähdekoodin virtuaaliinstrumentit sekä toteutin rumpukoneen, kosketinsoittimen ja yksinkertaisen karaokeohjelman mobiilille laitteelle. Tehty työ osoittaa, että tietoteknisin keinoin voidaan toteuttaa tutkimushankkeissa hyödynnettäviä musiikkiteknologian ohjelmia.

Saako historiasta selvää? Monikulttuuriset yläkoululaiset historian lähteillä historian taidot motiivien, seurauksien, historian tulkintojen ja lähteiden luotettavuuden arvioinneissa

The research assesses the skills of upper comprehensive school pupils in history. The focus is on locating personal motives, assessing wider reasons hidden in historical sources and evaluating source reliability. The research also questions how a wide use of multiple sources affects pupils’ holistic understanding of historical phenomena. The participants were a multicultural group of pupils. The origins of their cultures can be traced to the Balkan, the Middle East, Asia and Europe. The number of native Finnish speakers and pupils speaking Finnish as their second language was almost equal. The multicultural composition provides opportunities to assess how culturally responsive learning history from sources is. The intercultural approach to learning in a multicultural setting emphasizes equality as a precondition for learning. In order to set assignments at least to some extent match with all participants only those answers were taken into account which were produced by pupils who had studied history for a similar period of time in the Finnish comprehensive school system. Due to the small number of participants (41), the study avoids wide generalizations. Nevertheless, possible cultural blueprints in pupils’ way of thinking are noted. The first test examined the skills of pupils to find motives for emigration. The results showed that for 7th graders finding reasons is not a problematic task. However, the number of reasons noticed and justifications varied. In addition, the way the pupils explained their choices was a distinguishing factor. Some pupils interpreted source material making use of previous knowledge on the issue, while other pupils based their analysis solely on the text handed and did not try to add their own knowledge. Answers were divided into three categories: historical, explanatory and stating. Historical answers combined smoothly previously learned historical knowledge to one’s own source analysis; explanatory answers often ignored a wider frame, although they were effective when explaining e.g. historical concepts. The stating answers only noticed motives from the sources and made no attempts to explain them historically. Was the first test culturally responsive? All pupils representing different cultures tackled the first source exam successfully, but there were some signs of how historical concepts are understood in a slightly different way if the pupil’s personal history has no linkage to the concepts under scrutiny. The second test focused on the history of Native Americans. The test first required pupils to recognize whether short source extracts (5) were written by Indians or Caucasians. Based on what they had already learned from North American history, the pupils did not find it hard to distinguish between the sources. The analysis of multiphase causes and consequences of the disputes between Native Americans and white Americans caused dispersion among pupils. Using two historical sources and combining historical knowledge from both of them simultaneously was cumbersome for many. The explanations of consequences can be divided into two groups: the ones emphasizing short term consequences and those placing emphasis on long term consequences. The short term approach was mainly followed by boys in every group. The girls mainly paid attention to long term consequences. The result suggests that historical knowledge in sources is at least to some extent read through role and gender lenses. The third test required pupils to explain in their own words how the three sources given differed in their account of living conditions in Nazi Germany, which turned out to be demanding for many pupils. The pupils’ stronghold was rather the assessment of source reliability and accounts why the sources approached the same events differently. All participants wrote critical and justified comments on reliability and aspects that might have affected the content of the sources. The pupils felt that the main reasons that affected source reliability were the authors’ ethnic background, nationality and profession. The assessment showed that pupils were well aware that position in a historical situation has an impact on historical accounts, but in certain cases the victim’s account was seen as a historical truth. The account of events by a historian was chosen most often as the most reliable source, but it was often justified leniently with an indication to professionalism rather than with clear ideas of how historians conduct accounts based on sources. In brief, the last source test demonstrates that pupils have a strong idea that the ethnicity or nationalism determines how people explained events of the past. It is also an implication that pupils understand how historical knowledge is interpretative. The results also imply that history can be analyzed from a neutral perspective. One’s own membership in an ethnical or religious group does not automatically mean that a person’s cultural identity excludes historical explanations if something in them contradicts with his or her identity. The second method of extracting knowledge of pupils’ historical thinking was an essay analysis. The analysis shows that an analytical account of complicated political issues, which often include a great number of complicated political concepts, leads more likely to an inconsistent structure in the written work of pupils. The material also demonstrates that pupils have a strong tendency to take a critical stance when assessing history. Historical empathy in particular is shown if history somehow has a linkage to young people, children or minorities. Some topics can also awake strong feelings, especially among pupils with emigrant background, if there is a linkage between one’s own personal history and that of the school; and occasionally a student’s historical experience or thoughts replaced school history. Using sources during history lessons at school seems to have many advantages. It enhances the reasoning skills of pupils and their skills to assess the nature of historical knowledge. Thus one of the main aims and a great benefit of source work is to encourage pupils to express their own ideas and opinions. To conclude, when assessing the skills of adolescents in history - their work with sources, comments on history, historical knowledge and finally their historical thinking - one should be cautious and avoid cut off score evaluations. One purpose of pursuing history with sources is to encourage pupils to think independently, which is a useful tool for further identity construction. The idea that pupils have the right to conduct their own interpretations of history can be partially understood as part of a wider learning process, justification to study history comes from extrinsic reasons. The intrinsic reason is history itself; in order to understand history one should have a basic understanding of history as a specific domain of knowledge. Using sources does not mean that knowing history is of secondary importance. Only a balance between knowing the contextual history, understanding basic key concepts and working with sources is a solid base to improve pupils’ historical understanding.

Perspektivmöten i skola och handledning : lärares tankar om specialpedagogisk handledning

To create a more inclusive school, an increase in multidisciplinary cooperation is needed. One possible form of collaboration could encompass the special education teacher taking on the role of a consultant for other teachers in need of support in working with heterogeneous groups of pupils. Previous research shows that special education teachers see the role as consultant as diffuse and complex. The overarching aim of the present study involves deepening the knowledge on how consultation in a special educational context can be understood and developed based on teachers’ descriptions on this particular form of activity interpreted against various perspectives on consultation. The study is qualitative in nature and rests on a hermeneutic interpretive research tradition in combination with an abductive approach. The theoretical framework consists of two different approaches to consultation: the directive and the non-directive approach. The approaches differ regarding particular emphasis on advice and reflection during the consultation and with respect to who or what should be the focus of the consultation. The two approaches are here studied through various theories such as social learning theory, Bruner's theory of scaffolding, Roger’s humanist psychology, and constructivism. Semi-structured interviews were held with eighteen special education teachers (n=9) and class teachers (n=9) working in the compulsory school. The overall interpretation of the results shows that special education consultation can be understood as three different types of consultation. Consultation as counseling which harmonizes with the directive perspective on consultation is the most prominent type. In the consultation as counseling conversation, the special educational knowledge transfer is central and the focus is placed on the pupil. Although special education knowledge transfer emerges as a unique aspect of special education consultation, there are several inherent challenges in this type of consultation that can be addressed in that teachers also describe two other types of consultation. In the reflective consultation, there is a move away from the pupil focus and toward a focus on the class teacher and the use of reflection. The reflective consultation harmonizes with the non-directive approach to consultation. This type of consultation does not as of yet have a prominent place in the Finland-Swedish school context and at this stage it is not seen as a legitimate type of consultation according to the teachers’ descriptions. Despite this, certain aspects of the reflective conversation could be given more space in the development of consultation within special educational contexts. The co-operative consultation is characterized by the teachers acting as teammates and using professional exchange as a strategy for consultation. Both teachers' knowledge is seen as central, and rather than the special education teacher acting as the expert and moderator, the teachers control the consultation together and jointly move the work along. The co-operative consultation enables the focus to move from the pupil toward the context, which can lead to the development of inclusive practices. The results indicate that this type of consultation holds potential in the development of special educational consultation that takes place between equal colleagues. The co-operative consultation opens up for a third collaborative approach to consultation, where aspects of the directive and non-directive perspective can merge and develop. The thesis concludes with the proposal that special pedagogical consultation can be understood from an integrated perspective. The characteristics of the consultation can vary depending on the type of problem or situation, while co-operative consultation can be seen as the ideal as equal colleagues meet in consultation conversations. In order to develop the co-operative consultation, both teachers are required to have knowledge of consultation as a practice, to be part of a collaborative school climate, and that teachers are provided with enough time to take part in consultations.

Target audience analysis in cyber domain

This thesis aims to find an effective way of conducting a target audience analysis (TAA) in cyber domain. There are two main focal points that are addressed; the nature of the cyber domain and the method of the TAA. Of the cyber domain the object is to find the opportunities, restrictions and caveats that result from its digital and temporal nature. This is the environment in which the TAA method is examined in this study. As the TAA is an important step of any psychological operation and critical to its success, the method used must cover all the main aspects affecting the choice of a proper target audience. The first part of the research was done by sending an open-ended questionnaire to operators in the field of information warfare both in Finland and abroad. As the results were inconclusive, the research was completed by assessing the applicability of United States Army Joint Publication FM 3-05.301 in the cyber domain via a theory-based content analysis. FM 3- 05.301 was chosen because it presents a complete method of the TAA process. The findings were tested against the results of the questionnaire and new scientific research in the field of psychology. The cyber domain was found to be “fast and vast”, volatile and uncontrollable. Although governed by laws to some extent, the cyber domain is unpredictable by nature and not controllable to reasonable amount. The anonymity and lack of verification often present in the digital channels mean that anyone can have an opinion, and any message sent may change or even be counterproductive to the original purpose. The TAA method of the FM 3-05.301 is applicable in the cyber domain, although some parts of the method are outdated and thus suggested to be updated if used in that environment. The target audience categories of step two of the process were replaced by new groups that exist in the digital environment. The accessibility assessment (step eight) was also redefined, as in the digital media the mere existence of a written text is typically not enough to convey the intended message to the target audience. The scientific studies made in computer sciences and both in psychology and sociology about the behavior of people in social media (and overall in cyber domain) call for a more extensive remake of the TAA process. This falls, however, out of the scope of this work. It is thus suggested that further research should be carried out in search of computer-assisted methods and a more thorough TAA process, utilizing the latest discoveries of human behavior. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Tämän opinnäytetyön tavoitteena on löytää tehokas tapa kohdeyleisöanalyysin tekemiseksi kybertoimintaympäristössä. Työssä keskitytään kahteen ilmiöön: kybertoimintaympäristön luonteeseen ja kohdeyleisöanalyysin metodiin. Kybertoimintaympäristön osalta tavoitteena on löytää sen digitaalisesta ja ajallisesta luonteesta juontuvat mahdollisuudet, rajoitteet ja sudenkuopat. Tämä on se ympäristö jossa kohdeyleisöanalyysiä tarkastellaan tässä työssä. Koska kohdeyleisöanalyysi kuuluu olennaisena osana jokaiseen psykologiseen operaatioon ja on onnistumisen kannalta kriittinen tekijä, käytettävän metodin tulee pitää sisällään kaikki oikean kohdeyleisön valinnan kannalta merkittävät osa-alueet. Tutkimuksen ensimmäisessä vaiheessa lähetettiin avoin kysely informaatiosodankäynnin ammattilaisille Suomessa ja ulkomailla. Koska kyselyn tulokset eivät olleet riittäviä johtopäätösten tekemiseksi, tutkimusta jatkettiin tarkastelemalla Yhdysvaltojen armeijan kenttäohjesäännön FM 3-05.301 soveltuvuutta kybertoimintaympäristössä käytettäväksi teorialähtöisen sisällönanalyysin avulla. FM 3-05.301 valittiin koska se sisältää kokonaisvaltaisen kohdeyleisöanalyysiprosessin. Havaintoja verrattiin kyselytutkimuksen tuloksiin ja psykologian uusiin tutkimuksiin. Kybertoimintaympäristö on tulosten perusteella nopea ja valtava, jatkuvasti muuttuva ja kontrolloimaton. Vaikkakin lait hallitsevat kybertoimintaympäristöä jossakin määrin, on se silti luonteeltaan ennakoimaton eikä sitä voida luotettavasti hallita. Digitaalisilla kanavilla usein läsnäoleva nimettömyys ja tiedon tarkastamisen mahdottomuus tarkoittavat että kenellä tahansa voi olla mielipide asioista, ja mikä tahansa viesti voi muuttua, jopa alkuperäiseen tarkoitukseen nähden vastakkaiseksi. FM 3-05.301:n metodi toimii kybertoimintaympäristössä, vaikkakin jotkin osa-alueet ovat vanhentuneita ja siksi ne esitetään päivitettäväksi mikäli metodia käytetään kyseisessä ympäristössä. Kohdan kaksi kohdeyleisökategoriat korvattiin uusilla, digitaalisessa ympäristössä esiintyvillä ryhmillä. Lähestyttävyyden arviointi (kohta 8) muotoiltiin myös uudestaan, koska digitaalisessa mediassa pelkkä tekstin läsnäolo ei sellaisenaan tyypillisesti vielä riitä halutun viestin välittämiseen kohdeyleisölle. Tietotekniikan edistyminen ja psykologian sekä sosiologian aloilla tehty tieteellinen tutkimus ihmisten käyttäytymisestä sosiaalisessa mediassa (ja yleensä kybertoimintaympäristössä) mahdollistavat koko kohdeyleisöanalyysiprosessin uudelleenrakentamisen. Tässä työssä sitä kuitenkaan ei voida tehdä. Siksi esitetäänkin että lisätutkimusta tulisi tehdä sekä tietokoneavusteisten prosessien että vielä syvällisempien kohdeyleisöanalyysien osalta, käyttäen hyväksi viimeisimpiä ihmisen käyttäytymiseen liittyviä tutkimustuloksia.

Understanding organizational wrongdoing

The topic is white collar crime in its organizational form. The research question is why otherwise law-abiding people engage in wrongful behavior within legitimate organizations and what kinds of dynamics are involved in wrongful organizational processes. This is a theoretical inquiry the method of which is to bring together relevant literature on organizational behavior regardless of the branch of science. In addition to criminological and sociolegal writings, I mostly refer to works of social psychology and organization theory. At first, I discuss the terminological multiplicity related to organizational white collar crime. In conclusion from a critical analysis of the dominant terms and definitions, I argue for the concept of organizational wrongdoing. The approach of organizational wrongdoing captures unethical, illegal and criminal organizational behavior. Thus, it is not retricted by legislative categories but ethical reasoning. The approach aims at grasping a behavioral entity, and state law crimes do not constitute an ontology of behavior. In order to understand organizational wrongdoing, the dominant criminological theories applied to white collar crime are discussed. To a surprisingly large extent, they lack a sophisticated organizational perspective and do not offer viable frameworks for building a plausible theory of organizational white collar crime. In order to fill the gap, I incorporate the social psychological dynamics of organizational behavior and present several findings on collective behavior that criminological theorization must come to terms with. ------ This publication has been first presented and accepted as a master's thesis at the Faculty of Law, University of Turku. It has been published on the series: Criminal Law and Judicial Procedure, Series B: 15, in print format. The publication was digitized in 2015 and published online.