Simulating the dynamics of silver market using computational market dynamics

Traditional econometric approaches in modeling the dynamics of equity and commodity markets, have, made great progress in the past decades. However, they assume rationality among the economic agents and and do not capture the dynamics that produce extreme events (black swans), due to deviation from the rationality assumption. The purpose of this study is to simulate the dynamics of silver markets by using the novel computational market dynamics approach. To this end, the daily data from the period of 1st March 2000 to 1st March 2013 of closing prices of spot silver prices has been simulated with the Jabłonska-Capasso-Morale(JCM) model. The Maximum Likelihood approach has been employed to calibrate the acquired data with JCM. Statistical analysis of the simulated series with respect to the actual one has been conducted to evaluate model performance. The model captures the animal spirits dynamics present in the data under evaluation well.

Kalman filter for computational market dynamics

Kalman filter is a recursive mathematical power tool that plays an increasingly vital role in innumerable fields of study. The filter has been put to service in a multitude of studies involving both time series modelling and financial time series modelling. Modelling time series data in Computational Market Dynamics (CMD) can be accomplished using the Jablonska-Capasso-Morale (JCM) model. Maximum likelihood approach has always been utilised to estimate the parameters of the JCM model. The purpose of this study is to discover if the Kalman filter can be effectively utilized in CMD. Ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), with 50 ensemble members, applied to US sugar prices spanning the period of January, 1960 to February, 2012 was employed for this work. The real data and Kalman filter trajectories showed no significant discrepancies, hence indicating satisfactory performance of the technique. Since only US sugar prices were utilized, it would be interesting to discover the nature of results if other data sets are employed.

Computational Market Dynamics of Virtual Economies

The last two decades have provided a vast opportunity to live and explore the compulsive imaginary world or virtual world through massively multiplayer online role-playing games (MMORPGs). MMORPG gives a wide range of opportunities to its users to participate with multi-players on the same platform, to communicate and to do real time actions. There is a virtual economy in these games which is largely player-driven. In-game currency provides its users to build up their Avatars, to buy or sell the necessary goods to play, survive in the games and so on. As a part of virtual economies generated through EVE Online, this thesis mainly focuses on how the prices of the minerals in EVE Online behave by applying the Jabłonska- Capasso-Morale (JCM) mathematical simulation model. It is to verify up to what degree the model can reproduce the virtual economy behavior. The model is applied to buy and sell prices of two minerals namely, isogen and morphite. The simulation results demonstrate that JCM model ts reasonably well to the mineral prices, which lets us conclude that virtual economies behave similarly to the real ones.

From Fluid Dynamics to Human Psychology.What Drives Financial Markets Towards Extreme Events

For decades researchers have been trying to build models that would help understand price performance in financial markets and, therefore, to be able to forecast future prices. However, any econometric approaches have notoriously failed in predicting extreme events in markets. At the end of 20th century, market specialists started to admit that the reasons for economy meltdowns may originate as much in rational actions of traders as in human psychology. The latter forces have been described as trading biases, also known as animal spirits. This study aims at expressing in mathematical form some of the basic trading biases as well as the idea of market momentum and, therefore, reconstructing the dynamics of prices in financial markets. It is proposed through a novel family of models originating in population and fluid dynamics, applied to an electricity spot price time series. The main goal of this work is to investigate via numerical solutions how well theequations succeed in reproducing the real market time series properties, especially those that seemingly contradict standard assumptions of neoclassical economic theory, in particular the Efficient Market Hypothesis. The results show that the proposed model is able to generate price realizations that closely reproduce the behaviour and statistics of the original electricity spot price. That is achieved in all price levels, from small and medium-range variations to price spikes. The latter were generated from price dynamics and market momentum, without superimposing jump processes in the model. In the light of the presented results, it seems that the latest assumptions about human psychology and market momentum ruling market dynamics may be true. Therefore, other commodity markets should be analyzed with this model as well.

Stochastic particle models: mean reversion and burgers dynamics. An application to commodity markets

The aim of this study is to propose a stochastic model for commodity markets linked with the Burgers equation from fluid dynamics. We construct a stochastic particles method for commodity markets, in which particles represent market participants. A discontinuity in the model is included through an interacting kernel equal to the Heaviside function and its link with the Burgers equation is given. The Burgers equation and the connection of this model with stochastic differential equations are also studied. Further, based on the law of large numbers, we prove the convergence, for large N, of a system of stochastic differential equations describing the evolution of the prices of N traders to a deterministic partial differential equation of Burgers type. Numerical experiments highlight the success of the new proposal in modeling some commodity markets, and this is confirmed by the ability of the model to reproduce price spikes when their effects occur in a sufficiently long period of time.

Exploring the strategic impact of technological change - Studies on the role of Internet in magazine publishing

Over the past few decades, turbulent change has characterized the situation in the media industry. It has been noted that digitalization and new media are strongly influencing the industry: it is changing the existing market dynamics and requires new strategies. Prior research on the impact of digitalization and the Internet has emphasized news-focused media such as newspaper publishing and broadcasting, yet magazine publishing is very seldom the focus of the research. This study examines how the Internetimpacts magazine publishing. The work presents a multi-level analysis on the role and impact of the Internet on magazine products, companies and industry. The study is founded on strategic management, technology management and media economics literature. This study consists of two parts. The first part introduces the research topic and discusses the overall results of the study. The second part comprises five research publications. Qualitative research methods are used throughout. The results of the study indicate that the Internet has not had a disruptive effect on magazine publishing, and that its strategic implications could rather be considered complementary to the print magazine and the business as a whole. It seems that the co-specialized assets, together with market-related competencies and unchanged core competence have protected established firms from the disruptive effect of the new technology in magazine publishing. In addition, it seems that the Internet offers a valuable possibility to build and nourish customer relationships. The study contributes tomedia management and economics research by moving from product- or industry-level investigations towards a strategic-management perspective.

Mobile Marketing in Japan

Mobiilimarkkinoinnin markkinat ovat vasta rakentumassa ja suurin osa alan toimijoista etenkin Suomessa yrittää vielä löytää rooliaan. Sen sijaan Japanissa sisällöntuotantoliiketoiminta matkapuhelimille kukoistaa ja mobiilimarkkinointi on jo saavuttanut merkittävän aseman mobiili-internetin palvelutarjonnassa. Toisin kuin Suomessa, jossa mobiilimarkkinat ovat vielä lastenkengissä, Japanissa myös mobiilimarkkinoinnin arvoketju on vähitellen muotoutumassa.Tämän tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli antaa käsitys Japanin mobiilimarkkinoinnin dynamiikasta ja luoda viitekehys operaattorin tulevalle roolille mobiilimarkkinoinnin markkinoiden rakentamisessa. Tutkimus on deskriptiivinen ja aineisto on kerätty alan kirjallisuudesta sekä haastattelemalla tärkeitä mobiilimarkkinoiden toimijoita Japanissa. Japanissa operaattoreilla (NTT DoCoMo, J-Phone ja KDDI) on erittäin vahva asema mobiili-internetin ja mobiilimarkkinoinnin markkinoilla. Ne hallitsevat asiakasrajapintaa, päättävät mobiiliverkon ja matkapuhelimien ominaisuuksista sekä siitä, ketkä sisällöntuottajista pääsevät osaksi heidän laskutusjärjestelmäänsä. Markkinoinnissa operaattoreilla ei ole yhtä näkyvää roolia. Omistussuhteiden kautta ne kuitenkin vaikuttavat lähes koko arvoketjuun. Operaattorit ovat yhdessä Japanin suurimpien mainostoimistojen kanssa luoneet tytäryhtiöitä, jotka hoitavat mainonnan operaattorin mobiiliportaalissa. Japanissa operaattori on ottanut hallitsevan roolin mobiilimarkkinoiden rakentamisessa. Tiivis yhteistyö eri toimijoiden, kuten matkapuhelinvalmistajien, sisällöntuottajien ja mainostoimistojen kanssa, on mahdollistanut kokonaisvaltaisen palvelupaketin tarjoamisen. Palvelupaketti sisältää käyttäjäystävällisen liittymän mobiili-internetiin sekä edulliset puhelimet. Juuri tiivis yhteistyö onkin ollut yksi tärkeimmistä menestystekijöistä Japanin markkinoita rakennettaessa. Mobiilimarkkinoita rakennettaessa operaattorilla on merkittävä rooli markkinoiden muodostajana ja sisällön kokoojana. Operaattorien tulee varautua roskapostin vastaiseen taisteluun, jos sähköpostia annetaan lähettää suoraan matkapuhelimeen. On erityisen tärkeää varmistaa, ettei käyttäjien tarvitse kärsiä roskapostista, muuten suoramarkkinoinnin mahdollisuus matkapuhelimeen menetetään. Ainoastaan aktiivisella edistämisellä ja osallistumisella mobiili-internetin sisällöntuotanto- ja markkinointiliiketoimintaan operaattori voi vahvistaa markkina-asemaansa ja varmistaa osuutensa tulevista markkinoista.

Analysis of electricity distribution network operation business models and capitalization of control room functions with DMS

Electricity distribution network operation (NO) models are challenged as they are expected to continue to undergo changes during the coming decades in the fairly developed and regulated Nordic electricity market. Network asset managers are to adapt to competitive technoeconomical business models regarding the operation of increasingly intelligent distribution networks. Factors driving the changes for new business models within network operation include: increased investments in distributed automation (DA), regulative frameworks for annual profit limits and quality through outage cost, increasing end-customer demands, climatic changes and increasing use of data system tools, such as Distribution Management System (DMS). The doctoral thesis addresses the questions a) whether there exist conditions and qualifications for competitive markets within electricity distribution network operation and b) if so, identification of limitations and required business mechanisms. This doctoral thesis aims to provide an analytical business framework, primarily for electric utilities, for evaluation and development purposes of dedicated network operation models to meet future market dynamics within network operation. In the thesis, the generic build-up of a business model has been addressed through the use of the strategicbusiness hierarchy levels of mission, vision and strategy for definition of the strategic direction of the business followed by the planning, management and process execution levels of enterprisestrategy execution. Research questions within electricity distribution network operation are addressed at the specified hierarchy levels. The results of the research represent interdisciplinary findings in the areas of electrical engineering and production economics. The main scientific contributions include further development of the extended transaction cost economics (TCE) for government decisions within electricity networks and validation of the usability of the methodology for the electricity distribution industry. Moreover, DMS benefit evaluations in the thesis based on the outage cost calculations propose theoretical maximum benefits of DMS applications equalling roughly 25% of the annual outage costs and 10% of the respective operative costs in the case electric utility. Hence, the annual measurable theoretical benefits from the use of DMS applications are considerable. The theoretical results in the thesis are generally validated by surveys and questionnaires.

Environmental inFluences on the Adoption of Open Innovation: Analysis of Structural, Institutional and Cultural Impacts

The concept of open innovation has recently gained widespread attention, and is particularly relevant now as many firms endeavouring to implement open innovation, face different sets of challenges associated with managing it. Prior research on open innovation has focused on the internal processes dealing with open innovation implementation and the organizational changes, already taking place or yet required in companies order to succeed in the global open innovation market. Despite the intensive research on open innovation, the question of what influences its adoption by companies in different contexts has not received much attention in studies. To fill this gap, this thesis contribute to the discussion on open innovation influencing factors by bringing in the perspective of environmental impacts, i.e. gathering data on possible sources of external influences, classifying them and testing their systemic impact through conceptual system dynamics simulation model. The insights from data collection and conceptualization in modelling are used to answer the question of how the external environment affects the adoption of open innovation. The thesis research is presented through five research papers reflecting the method triangulation based study (conducted at initial stage as case study, later as quantitative analysis and finally as system dynamics simulation). This multitude of methods was used to collect the possible external influence factors and to assess their impact (on positive/negative scale rather than numerical). The results obtained throughout the thesis research bring valuable insights into understanding of open innovation influencing factors inside a firm’s operating environment, point out the balance required in the system for successful open innovation performance and discover the existence of tipping point of open innovation success when driven by market dynamics and structures. The practical implications on how firms and policy-makers can leverage environment for their potential benefits are offered in the conclusions.

Static waves in corporate space : characterizing oscillating trading patterns in New York stock exchange

Various researches in the field of econophysics has shown that fluid flow have analogous phenomena in financial market behavior, the typical parallelism being delivered between energy in fluids and information on markets. However, the geometry of the manifold on which market dynamics act out their dynamics (corporate space) is not yet known. In this thesis, utilizing a Seven year time series of prices of stocks used to compute S&P500 index on the New York Stock Exchange, we have created local chart to the corporate space with the goal of finding standing waves and other soliton like patterns in the behavior of stock price deviations from the S&P500 index. By first calculating the correlation matrix of normalized stock price deviations from the S&P500 index, we have performed a local singular value decomposition over a set of four different time windows as guides to the nature of patterns that may emerge. I turns out that in almost all cases, each singular vector is essentially determined by relatively small set of companies with big positive or negative weights on that singular vector. Over particular time windows, sometimes these weights are strongly correlated with at least one industrial sector and certain sectors are more prone to fast dynamics whereas others have longer standing waves.

Animal Spirits in Financial Markets: Agent-Based Model

In this work an agent based model (ABM) was proposed using the main idea from the Jabłonska-Capasso-Morale (JCM) model and maximized greediness concept. Using a multi-agents simulator, the power of the ABM was assessed by using the historical prices of silver metal dating from the 01.03.2000 to 01.03.2013. The model results, analysed in two different situations, with and without maximized greediness, have proven that the ABM is capable of explaining the silver price dynamics even in utmost events. The ABM without maximal greediness explained the prices with more irrationalities whereas the ABM with maximal greediness tracked the price movements with more rational decisions. In the comparison test, the model without maximal greediness stood as the best to capture the silver market dynamics. Therefore, the proposed ABM confirms the suggested reasons for financial crises or markets failure. It reveals that an economic or financial collapse may be stimulated by irrational and rational decisions, yet irrationalities may dominate the market.

Market integration, return and volatility dynamics; empirical evidence from African stock markets

Frontier and Emerging economies have implemented policies with the objective of liberalizing their equity markets. Equity market liberalization opens the domestic equity market to foreign investors and as well paves the way for domestic investors to invest in foreign equity securities. Among other things, equity market liberalization results in diversification benefits. Moreover, equity market liberalization leads to low cost of equity capital resulting from the lower rate of return by investors. Additionally, foreign and local investors share any potential risks. Liberalized equity markets also become liquid considering that there are more investors to trade. Equity market liberalization results in financial integration which explains the movement of two markets. In crisis period, increased volatility and co-movement between two markets may result in what is termed contagion effects. In Africa, major moves toward financial liberalization generally started in the late 1980s with South Africa as the pioneer. Over the years, researchers have studied the impact of financial liberalization on Africa’s economic development with diverse results; some being positive, others negative and still others being mixed. The objective of this study is to establish whether African stock-markets are integrated into the United States (US) and World market. Furthermore, the study helps to see if there are international linkages between the Africa, US and the world markets. A Bivariate- VAR- GARCH- BEKK model is employed in the study. In the study, the effect of thin trading is removed through series of econometric data purification. This is because thin trading, also known as non-trading or inconsistency of trading, is a main feature of African markets and may trigger inconsistency and biased results. The study confirmed the widely established results that the South Africa and Egypt stock markets are highly integrated with the US and World market. Interestingly, the study adds to knowledge in this research area by establishing the fact that Kenya is very integrated with the US and World markets and that it receives and exports past innovations as well as shocks to and from the US and World market.

Dynamics of Appropriability - Finding a Balance between Efficiency and Strength in the Appropriability Regime

Building and sustaining competitive advantage through the creation of market imperfections is challenging in a constantly changing business environment - particularly since the sources of such advantages are increasingly knowledge-based. Facilitated by improved networks and communication, knowledge spills over to competitors more easily than before,thus creating an appropriability problem: the inability of an innovating firm to utilize its innovations commercially. Consequently, as the importance of intellectual assets increases, their protection also calls for new approaches. Companies have various means of protection at their disposal, and by taking advantage of them they can make intangibles more non-transferable and prevent, or at leastdelay, imitation of their most crucial intellectual assets. However, creating barriers against imitation has another side to it, and the transfer of knowledge in situations requiring knowledge sharing may be unintentionally obstructed. Theaim of this thesis is to increase understanding of how firms can balance knowledge protection and sharing so as to benefit most from their knowledge assets. Thus, knowledge protection is approached through an examination of the appropriability regime of a firm, i.e., the combination of available and effective means ofprotecting innovations, their profitability, and the increased rents due to R&D. A further aim is to provide a broader understanding of the formation and structure of the appropriability regime. The study consists of two parts. The first part introduces the research topic and the overall results of the study, and the second part consists of six complementary research publications covering various appropriability issues. The thesis contributes to the existing literature in several ways. Although there is a wide range of prior research on appropriability issues, a lot of it is restricted either to the study of individual appropriability mechanisms, or to comparing certain features of them. These approaches are combined, and the relevant theoretical concepts are clarified and developed. In addition, the thesis provides empirical evidence of the formation of the appropriability regime, which is consequently presented as an adaptive process. Thus, a framework is provided that better corresponds to the complex reality of the current business environment.

Stock and Bond Market Integration: Evidence from Russian Financial Markets

Minimizing the risks of an investment portfolio but not in the favour of expected returns is one of the key interests of an investor. Typically, portfolio diversification is achieved using two main strategies: investing in different classes of assets thought to have little or negative correlations or investing in similar classes of assets in multiple markets through international diversification. This study investigates integration of the Russian financial markets in the time period of January 1, 2003 to December 28, 2007 using daily data. The aim is to test the intra-country and cross-country integration of the Russian stock and bond markets between seven countries. Our test methodology for the short-run dynamics testing is the vector autoregressive model (VAR) and for the long-run cointegration testing we use the Johansen cointegration test which is an extension to VAR. The empirical results of this study show that the Russian stock and bond markets are not integrated in the long-run either at intra-country or cross-country level which means that the markets are relatively segmented. The short-run dynamics are also relatively low. This implies a presence of potential gains from diversification.

Time-varying Risk Premiums and Conditional Market Risk: Empirical Evidence from European Stock Markets

This study investigates the relationship between the time-varying risk premiums and conditional market risk in the stock markets of the ten member countries of Economy and Monetary Union. Second, it examines whether the conditional second moments change over time and are there asymmetric effects in the conditional covariance matrix. Third, it analyzes the possible effects of the chosen testing framework. Empirical analysis is conducted using asymmetric univariate and multivariate GARCH-in-mean models and assuming three different degrees of market integration. For a daily sample period from 1999 to 2007, the study shows that the time-varying market risk alone is not enough to explain the dynamics of risk premiums and indications are found that the market risk is detected only when its price is allowed to change over time. Also asymmetric effects in the conditional covariance matrix, which is found to be time-varying, are clearly present and should be recognized in empirical asset pricing analyses.