Time-Varying Benefits of International Diversification for Finnish Investor: Country-Specific Strategy Concentrating on Emerging Markets

The main objective of this study is to investigate whether the Finnish investors’ country-specific strategy concentrating on emerging markets provides diversification benefits. We also analyze whether the benefits of international diversification has been diminished after periods of high volatility caused by different market crisis. The objective is investigated with three methods: Correlation coefficients, rolling correlations added with OLS trend-lines and Box’s M statistic. All the empirical tests are analyzed and calculated with logarithmic returns of weekly time series data from Friday closing values between January 1995 and December 2007. The number of weekly observations is 678. The data type is total return indices of different countries. Data is collected from DataStream and provided by Datastream Financial. Countries investigated are Finland, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, China, India, Mexico, Poland, Russia, South Africa, South Korea, Thailand and Turkey. The current data is quoted both in U.S. Dollars and local currencies. The empirical results of this thesis show that the correlation coefficients are time-varying across Finland and 12 emerging market countries. Although the correlations have risen from 1995 to 2007, there can be found sub-periods where the correlation has declined from earlier period. The results also indicate that a Finnish investor constructing a portfolio of emerging market countries cannot rely on the correlation coefficients estimated from historical data because of the instability of correlation matrices.

Time-varying Risk Premiums and Conditional Market Risk: Empirical Evidence from European Stock Markets

This study investigates the relationship between the time-varying risk premiums and conditional market risk in the stock markets of the ten member countries of Economy and Monetary Union. Second, it examines whether the conditional second moments change over time and are there asymmetric effects in the conditional covariance matrix. Third, it analyzes the possible effects of the chosen testing framework. Empirical analysis is conducted using asymmetric univariate and multivariate GARCH-in-mean models and assuming three different degrees of market integration. For a daily sample period from 1999 to 2007, the study shows that the time-varying market risk alone is not enough to explain the dynamics of risk premiums and indications are found that the market risk is detected only when its price is allowed to change over time. Also asymmetric effects in the conditional covariance matrix, which is found to be time-varying, are clearly present and should be recognized in empirical asset pricing analyses.

Time Varying Conditional Correlation Between Stock And Bond Returns: Evidence From CIVETS Nations

This thesis estimates long-run time variant conditional correlation between stock and bond returns of CIVETS (Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey, and South Africa) nations. Further, aims to analyse the presence of asymmetric volatility effect in both asset returns, as well as, obverses increment or decrement in conditional correlation during pre-crisis and crisis period, which lead to make a reliable diversification decision. The Constant Conditional Correlation (CCC) GARCH model of Bollerslev (1990), the Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) GARCH model (Engle 2002), and the Asymmetric Dynamic Conditional Correlation (ADCC) GARCH model of Cappiello, Engle, and Sheppard (2006) were implemented in the study. The analyses present strong evidence of time-varying conditional correlation in CIVETS markets, excluding Vietnam, during 2005-2013. In addition, negative innovation effects were found in both conditional variance and correlation of the asset returns. The results of this study recommend investors to include financial assets from these markets in portfolios, in order to obtain better stock-bond diversification benefits, especially during high volatility periods.

Dynamic Hedging with Credit Default Swaps: Empirical Evidence from the European Monetary Union

This thesis investigates the effectiveness of time-varying hedging during the financial crisis of 2007 and the European Debt Crisis of 2010. In addition, the seven test economies are part of the European Monetary Union and these countries are in different economical states. Time-varying hedge ratio was constructed using conditional variances and correlations, which were created by using multivariate GARCH models. Here we have used three different underlying portfolios: national equity markets, government bond markets and the combination of these two. These underlying portfolios were hedged by using credit default swaps. Empirical part includes the in-sample and out-of-sample analysis, which are constructed by using constant and dynamic models. Moreover, almost in every case dynamic models outperform the constant ones in the determination of the hedge ratio. We could not find any statistically significant evidence to support the use of asymmetric dynamic conditional correlation model. In addition, our findings are in line with prior literature and support the use of time-varying hedge ratio. Finally, we found that in some cases credit default swaps are not suitable instruments for hedging and they act more as a speculative instrument.

A Soft Contact Collision Method For Real-Time Simulation of Triangularized Geometries in Multibody Dynamics

When modeling machines in their natural working environment collisions become a very important feature in terms of simulation accuracy. By expanding the simulation to include the operation environment, the need for a general collision model that is able to handle a wide variety of cases has become central in the development of simulation environments. With the addition of the operating environment the challenges for the collision modeling method also change. More simultaneous contacts with more objects occur in more complicated situations. This means that the real-time requirement becomes more difficult to meet. Common problems in current collision modeling methods include for example dependency on the geometry shape or mesh density, calculation need increasing exponentially in respect to the number of contacts, the lack of a proper friction model and failures due to certain configurations like closed kinematic loops. All these problems mean that the current modeling methods will fail in certain situations. A method that would not fail in any situation is not very realistic but improvements can be made over the current methods.

Energy-efficient control strategies for variable speed driven parallel pumping systems based on pump operation point monitoring with frequency converters

The pumping processes requiring wide range of flow are often equipped with parallelconnected centrifugal pumps. In parallel pumping systems, the use of variable speed control allows that the required output for the process can be delivered with a varying number of operated pump units and selected rotational speed references. However, the optimization of the parallel-connected rotational speed controlled pump units often requires adaptive modelling of both parallel pump characteristics and the surrounding system in varying operation conditions. The available information required for the system modelling in typical parallel pumping applications such as waste water treatment and various cooling and water delivery pumping tasks can be limited, and the lack of real-time operation point monitoring often sets limits for accurate energy efficiency optimization. Hence, alternatives for easily implementable control strategies which can be adopted with minimum system data are necessary. This doctoral thesis concentrates on the methods that allow the energy efficient use of variable speed controlled parallel pumps in system scenarios in which the parallel pump units consist of a centrifugal pump, an electric motor, and a frequency converter. Firstly, the suitable operation conditions for variable speed controlled parallel pumps are studied. Secondly, methods for determining the output of each parallel pump unit using characteristic curve-based operation point estimation with frequency converter are discussed. Thirdly, the implementation of the control strategy based on real-time pump operation point estimation and sub-optimization of each parallel pump unit is studied. The findings of the thesis support the idea that the energy efficiency of the pumping can be increased without the installation of new, more efficient components in the systems by simply adopting suitable control strategies. An easily implementable and adaptive control strategy for variable speed controlled parallel pumping systems can be created by utilizing the pump operation point estimation available in modern frequency converters. Hence, additional real-time flow metering, start-up measurements, and detailed system model are unnecessary, and the pumping task can be fulfilled by determining a speed reference for each parallel-pump unit which suggests the energy efficient operation of the pumping system.

Essays on pricing of risk and international linkage of Russian stock market

Last two decades have seen a rapid change in the global economic and financial situation; the economic conditions in many small and large underdeveloped countries started to improve and they became recognized as emerging markets. This led to growth in the amounts of global investments in these countries, partly spurred by expectations of higher returns, favorable risk-return opportunities, and better diversification alternatives to global investors. This process, however, has not been without problems and it has emphasized the need for more information on these markets. In particular, the liberalization of financial markets around the world, globalization of trade and companies, recent formation of economic and regional blocks, and the rapid development of underdeveloped countries during the last two decades have brought a major challenge to the financial world and researchers alike. This doctoral dissertation studies one of the largest emerging markets, namely Russia. The motivation why the Russian equity market is worth investigating includes, among other factors, its sheer size, rapid and robust economic growth since the turn of the millennium, future prospect for international investors, and a number of important major financial reforms implemented since the early 1990s. Another interesting feature of the Russian economy, which gives motivation to study Russian market, is Russia’s 1998 financial crisis, considered as one of the worst crisis in recent times, affecting both developed and developing economies. Therefore, special attention has been paid to Russia’s 1998 financial crisis throughout this dissertation. This thesis covers the period from the birth of the modern Russian financial markets to the present day, Special attention is given to the international linkage and the 1998 financial crisis. This study first identifies the risks associated with Russian market and then deals with their pricing issues. Finally some insights about portfolio construction within Russian market are presented. The first research paper of this dissertation considers the linkage of the Russian equity market to the world equity market by examining the international transmission of the Russia’s 1998 financial crisis utilizing the GARCH-BEKK model proposed by Engle and Kroner. Empirical results shows evidence of direct linkage between the Russian equity market and the world market both in regards of returns and volatility. However, the weakness of the linkage suggests that the Russian equity market was only partially integrated into the world market, even though the contagion can be clearly seen during the time of the crisis period. The second and the third paper, co-authored with Mika Vaihekoski, investigate whether global, local and currency risks are priced in the Russian stock market from a US investors’ point of view. Furthermore, the dynamics of these sources of risk are studied, i.e., whether the prices of the global and local risk factors are constant or time-varying over time. We utilize the multivariate GARCH-M framework of De Santis and Gérard (1998). Similar to them we find price of global market risk to be time-varying. Currency risk also found to be priced and highly time varying in the Russian market. Moreover, our results suggest that the Russian market is partially segmented and local risk is also priced in the market. The model also implies that the biggest impact on the US market risk premium is coming from the world risk component whereas the Russian risk premium is on average caused mostly by the local and currency components. The purpose of the fourth paper is to look at the relationship between the stock and the bond market of Russia. The objective is to examine whether the correlations between two classes of assets are time varying by using multivariate conditional volatility models. The Constant Conditional Correlation model by Bollerslev (1990), the Dynamic Conditional Correlation model by Engle (2002), and an asymmetric version of the Dynamic Conditional Correlation model by Cappiello et al. (2006) are used in the analysis. The empirical results do not support the assumption of constant conditional correlation and there was clear evidence of time varying correlations between the Russian stocks and bond market and both asset markets exhibit positive asymmetries. The implications of the results in this dissertation are useful for both companies and international investors who are interested in investing in Russia. Our results give useful insights to those involved in minimising or managing financial risk exposures, such as, portfolio managers, international investors, risk analysts and financial researchers. When portfolio managers aim to optimize the risk-return relationship, the results indicate that at least in the case of Russia, one should account for the local market as well as currency risk when calculating the key inputs for the optimization. In addition, the pricing of exchange rate risk implies that exchange rate exposure is partly non-diversifiable and investors are compensated for bearing the risk. Likewise, international transmission of stock market volatility can profoundly influence corporate capital budgeting decisions, investors’ investment decisions, and other business cycle variables. Finally, the weak integration of the Russian market and low correlations between Russian stock and bond market offers good opportunities to the international investors to diversify their portfolios.

Use Of Systems Approach with Total Quality Management in Industrial Organizations

The objective of the work has been to study why systems thinking should be used in combination with TQM, what are the main benefits of the integration and how it could best be done. The work analyzes the development of systems thinking and TQM with time and the main differences between them. The work defines prerequisites for adopting a systems approach and the organizational factors which embody the development of an efficient learning organization. The work proposes a model based on combination of an interactive management model and redesign to be used for application of systems approach with TQM in practice. The results of the work indicate that there are clear differences between systems thinking and TQM which justify their combination. Systems approach provides an additional complementary perspective to quality management. TQM is focused on optimizing operations at the operational level while interactive management and redesign of organization are focused on optimization operations at the conceptual level providing a holistic system for value generation. The empirical study demonstrates the applicability of the proposed model in one case study company but its application is tenable and possible also beyond this particular company. System dynamic modeling and other systems based techniques like cognitive mapping are useful methods for increasing understanding and learning about the behavior of systems. The empirical study emphasizes the importance of using a proper early warning system.

Customized agile development process for embedded software development

Agile software development has grown in popularity starting from the agile manifesto declared in 2001. However there is a strong belief that the agile methods are not suitable for embedded, critical or real-time software development, even though multiple studies and cases show differently. This thesis will present a custom agile process that can be used in embedded software development. The reasons for presumed unfitness of agile methods in embedded software development have mainly based on the feeling of these methods providing no real control, no strict discipline and less rigor engineering practices. One starting point is to provide a light process with disciplined approach to the embedded software development. Agile software development has gained popularity due to the fact that there are still big issues in software development as a whole. Projects fail due to schedule slips, budget surpassing or failing to meet the business needs. This does not change when talking about embedded software development. These issues are still valid, with multiple new ones rising from the quite complex and hard domain the embedded software developers work in. These issues are another starting point for this thesis. The thesis is based heavily on Feature Driven Development, a software development methodology that can be seen as a runner up to the most popular agile methodologies. The FDD as such is quite process oriented and is lacking few practices considered commonly as extremely important in agile development methodologies. In order for FDD to gain acceptance in the software development community it needs to be modified and enhanced. This thesis presents an improved custom agile process that can be used in embedded software development projects with size varying from 10 to 500 persons. This process is based on Feature Driven Development and by suitable parts to Extreme Programming, Scrum and Agile Modeling. Finally this thesis will present how the new process responds to the common issues in the embedded software development. The process of creating the new process is evaluated at the retrospective and guidelines for such process creation work are introduced. These emphasize the agility also in the process development through early and frequent deliveries and the team work needed to create suitable process.

Effect of pulps fractionation on formation and strength properties of laboratory hand sheets

The objectives of the work were to study the effect of dewatering time varying on formation properties of papersheets, to determine the role of fines fraction in creation of paper with good formation and strength properties of papersheets, and also to study the effect of charge modification of fibers fractionations on formation properties of handsheets. The paper formation is one of the most important structural properties of paper. This property has effect on physical and optical characteristics of paper. In thi work the effect of formation on tensile strength was determined. The formation properties were analyzed by using the AMBERTEC Beta Formation Tester. The PAM addition as a f;locculant agent did some changes in the formation of paper. Paper sheets were also made from different furnishes of both birch and pine pulps. The fibers particles as a fines have great effect on drainability changes. Fines fraction played important role in papermaking. The two kinds of pulps (pine and birch pulps) were also used in this work for investigation of fines role. As it was expected the fines fraction gave positive effect on paper formation, but when fines fraction was added above initial fines content the formation of paper was deteriorated. The effect of paper formation on tensile strength was also determined. In many cases the poor formation of paper had negative effect on strength properties of paper..

Spectrometrical Monitoring of Laser Sintering Process of Ceramic Material

This thesis is done as a part of project called FuncMama that is a project between Technical Research Centre of Finland (VTT), Oulu University (OY), Lappeenranta University of Technology (LUT) and Finnish industrial partners. Main goal of the project is to manufacture electric and mechanical components from mixed materials using laser sintering. Aim of this study was to create laser sintered pieces from ceramic material and monitor the sintering event by using spectrometer. Spectrometer is a device which is capable to record intensity of different wavelengths in relation with time. In this study the monitoring of laser sintering was captured with the equipment which consists of Ocean Optics spectrometer, optical fiber and optical lens (detector head). Light from the sintering process hit first to the lens system which guides the light in to the optical fibre. Optical fibre transmits the light from the sintering process to the spectrometer where wavelengths intensity level information is detected. The optical lens of the spectrometer was rigidly set and did not move along with the laser beam. Data which was collected with spectrometer from the laser sintering process was converted with Excel spreadsheet program for result’s evaluation. Laser equipment used was IPG Photonics pulse fibre laser. Laser parameters were kept mainly constant during experimental part and only sintering speed was changed. That way it was possible to find differences in the monitoring results without fear of too many parameters mixing together and affecting to the conclusions. Parts which were sintered had one layer and size of 5 x 5 mm. Material was CT2000 – tape manufactured by Heraeus which was later on post processed to powder. Monitoring of different sintering speeds was tested by using CT2000 reference powder. Moreover tests how different materials effect to the process monitoring were done by adding foreign powder Du Pont 951 which had suffered in re-grinding and which was more reactive than CT2000. By adding foreign material it simulates situation where two materials are accidently mixed together and it was studied if that can be seen with the spectrometer. It was concluded in this study that with the spectrometer it is possible to detect changes between different laser sintering speeds. When the sintering speed is lowered the intensity level of light is higher from the process. This is a result of higher temperature at the sintering spot and that can be noticed with the spectrometer. That indicates it could be possible to use spectrometer as a tool for process observation and support the idea of having system that can help setting up the process parameter window. Also important conclusion was how well the adding of foreign material could be seen with the spectrometer. When second material was added a significant intensity level raise could be noticed in that part where foreign material was mixed. That indicates it is possible to see if there are any variations in the material or if there are more materials mixed together. Spectrometric monitoring of laser sintering could be useful tool for process window observation and temperature controlling of the sintering process. For example if the process window for specific material is experimentally determined to get wanted properties and satisfying sintering speed. It is possible if the data is constantly recorded that the results can show faults in the part texture between layers. Changes between the monitoring data and the experimentally determined values can then indicate changes in the material being generated by material faults or by wrong process parameters. The results of this study show that spectrometer could be one possible tool for monitoring. But to get in that point where this all can be made possible much more researching is needed.

Testing Futures Market Efficiency and Optimal Hedge Ratio Estimation: Evidence from Futures and Options on RTS

This study investigates futures market efficiency and optimal hedge ratio estimation. First, cointegration between spot and futures prices is studied using Johansen method, with two different model specifications. If prices are found cointegrated, restrictions on cointegrating vector and adjustment coefficients are imposed, to account for unbiasedness, weak exogeneity and prediction hypothesis. Second, optimal hedge ratios are estimated using static OLS, and time-varying DVEC and CCC models. In-sample and out-of-sample results for one, two and five period ahead are reported. The futures used in thesis are RTS index, EUR/RUB exchange rate and Brent oil, traded in Futures and options on RTS.(FORTS) For in-sample period, data points were acquired from start of trading of each futures contract, RTS index from August 2005, EUR/RUB exchange rate March 2009 and Brent oil October 2008, lasting till end of May 2011. Out-of-sample period covers start of June 2011, till end of December 2011. Our results indicate that all three asset pairs, spot and futures, are cointegrated. We found RTS index futures to be unbiased predictor of spot price, mixed evidence for exchange rate, and for Brent oil futures unbiasedness was not supported. Weak exogeneity results for all pairs indicated spot price to lead in price discovery process. Prediction hypothesis, unbiasedness and weak exogeneity of futures, was rejected for all asset pairs. Variance reduction results varied between assets, in-sample in range of 40-85 percent and out-of sample in range of 40-96 percent. Differences between models were found small, except for Brent oil in which OLS clearly dominated. Out-of-sample results indicated exceptionally high variance reduction for RTS index, approximately 95 percent.

Two-Photon Excited Fluorescence Detection Technology in Screening for Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus

Control of the world-wide spread of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) has been unsuccessful in most developed countries. A few countries have been able to maintain a low MRSA prevalence, plausibly due to their strict MRSA control policies. Such policies require wide-scale screening of patients with suspected MRSA colonization, in order to nurse the MRSA-positive patients in contact isolation. The aim of this study was to develop and introduce a 2-photon excited fluorescence detection (TPX) technique for screening of MRSA directly from clinical samples. The assay principle involves specific online immunometric monitoring of S. aureus growth under selective antibiotic pressure. After the novel TPX approach had been set up, its applicability for the detection of MRSA was evaluated using a large MRSA collection including practically all epidemic MRSA strains identified in Finland between 1991 and 2009. The TPX assay was found both sensitive (97.9%) and specific (94.1%) in this epidemiological setting, illustrating that the method is tolerant to wide biological variation as well as to environments with rapidly emerging MRSA strains. When MRSA was screened directly from colonization samples, all patients positive for MRSA by conventional methods were positive also by the TPX assay. The assay capacity was 48 samples per a test run, and the median time required for confirmation of a true-positive screening test result was 3 h 26 min. Collectively, the findings presented in this thesis suggest that the TPX MRSA screening assay could be applicable for direct screening of MRSA colonization samples without any prior steps of isolation. This can potentially mean that contact isolation of suspected carriers testing negative could be discontinued earlier, thereby reducing the costs and burden associated with the containment of MRSA. In case of infection, a positive test result would ensure an early onset of effective therapy.

Situational awareness concept in a multinational collaboration environment : challenges in the information sharing framework

Technological capabilities are built to support different types of collaboration, and this gives the justification to widely observe, how activity environments are influenced by technology. Technology as an enabler can be addressed from different perspectives, other than merely technological. Dynamic, evolving environment is at the same time interesting but also challenging. As a multinational collaboration environment, the maritime surveillance is an good example of time critical and evolving environment, where technological solutions enable new ways of collaboration. Justification for the inspiration to use maritime environment as the baseline for understanding the challenges in creating and maintaining adequate level of situational awareness, derives from the complexity of the collaboration and information sharing environment elements, needed to be taken into account, when analyzing criticalities related to decision making. Situational awareness is an important element supporting decision making, and challenges related to it can also be observed in the maritime environment. This dissertation describes the structures and factors involved in this complex setting, found from the case studies that should be taken into account when trying to understand, how these elements affect the activities. This dissertation focuses on the gray area that is between a life threatening situation and normal everyday activities. From the multinational experimentation series case studies, MNE5 and MNE6 it was possible to observe situations that were not life threatening for the participants themselves, but not also basic every day activities. These case studies provided a unique possibility to see situations, where gaining of situational awareness and decision making are challenged with time critical crisis situations. Unfortunately organizations do not normally take the benefit from the everyday work to prepare themselves for possible emerging crisis situations. This dissertation focuses on creating a conceptual model and a concept that supports organizations – also outside the maritime community – to improve their ability to support gaining of situational awareness from the individual training level, all the way to changes in organizational structures in aiming for better support for decision making from the individual level to the highest decision making level. Quick changes and unpredictability are reality in organizations and organizations do not have the possibility to control all the factors that affect their functioning. Since we cannot be prepared for everything, and predict every crisis, individual activities inside teams and as a part of organizations, need to be supported with guidance, tools and training in order to support acting in challenging situations. In fact the ideology of the conceptual model created, lies especially in the aim of not controlling everything in beforehand, but supporting organizations with concrete procedures to help individuals to react in different, unpredictable situations, instead of focusing on traditional risk prevention and management. Technological capabilities are not automatically solutions for functional challenges; this is why it is justified to broaden the problem area observation from the technological perspective. This dissertation demonstrates that it is possible to support collaboration in a multinational environment with technological solutions, but it requires the recognition of technological limitations and accepting the possible restrictions related to technological innovations. Technology should not be considered value per se, the value of technology should be defined according to the support of activities, including strategic and operational environment evaluation, identification of organizational elements, and taking into account also the social factors and their challenges. Then we are one step closer to providing technological solutions that support the actual activities by taking into account the variables of the activity environment in question. The multidisciplinary view to approach the information sharing and collaboration framework, is derived especially from the complexity of decision making and building of situational awareness, since they are not build or created in vacuity, but in the organizational framework by the people doing it with the technological capabilities, enabled by the organizational structures. Introduced case studies were related to maritime environment, but according to the research results, it is valid to argue, that based on the lessons learned it is possible to create and further develop conceptual model and to create a general concept to support a wider range of organizations in their attempt to gain better level of situational awareness (SA) and to support decision making. To proof the versatile usage of the developed concept, I have introduced the case study findings to the health care environment and reflected the identified elements from the trauma center to the created concept. The main contribution to complete this adventure is the presented situational awareness concept created in the respect to NATO concept structure. This has been done to tackle the challenge of collaboration by focusing on situational awareness in the information sharing context by providing a theoretical ground and understanding, of how these issues should be approached, and how these elements can be generalized and used to support activities in other environments as well. This dissertation research has been a several year evolving process reflecting and affecting presented case studies and this learning experience from the case studies has also affected the goals and research questions of this dissertation. This venture has been written from a retro perspective according to ideology of process modeling and design rationale to present to the reader how this entire journey took place and what where the critical milestones that affected the end result, conceptual model. Support in a challenging information sharing framework can be provided with the right type of combination of tools, procedures and individual effort. This dissertation will provide insights to those with a new approach to war technology for the organizations to gain a better level of awareness and to improve the capabilities in decision making. This dissertation will present, from the war technology starting point, a new approach and possibility for the organizations to create a better level of awareness and support for decision making with the right combination of tools, procedures and individual effort.