Modelling non-industrial private forest landowners' strategic decision making by using logistic regression and neural networks: case of predicting the choice of forest taxation basis

Summary

Objectives and motivations of small-scale forest owners : theoretical modelling and qualitative assessment

Abstract

A comparison of electricity spot prices simulation using ARMA-GARCH and mean-reverting models

The aim of this work is to compare two families of mathematical models for their respective capability to capture the statistical properties of real electricity spot market time series. The first model family is ARMA-GARCH models and the second model family is mean-reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck models. These two models have been applied to two price series of Nordic Nord Pool spot market for electricity namely to the System prices and to the DenmarkW prices. The parameters of both models were calibrated from the real time series. After carrying out simulation with optimal models from both families we conclude that neither ARMA-GARCH models, nor conventional mean-reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck models, even when calibrated optimally with real electricity spot market price or return series, capture the statistical characteristics of the real series. But in the case of less spiky behavior (System prices), the mean-reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model could be seen to partially succeeded in this task.

Qualitative Characteristics and Quantitative Measures of Solution's Reliability in Discrete Optimization: Traditional Analytical Approaches, Innovative Computational Methods and Applicability

The purpose of this thesis is twofold. The first and major part is devoted to sensitivity analysis of various discrete optimization problems while the second part addresses methods applied for calculating measures of solution stability and solving multicriteria discrete optimization problems. Despite numerous approaches to stability analysis of discrete optimization problems two major directions can be single out: quantitative and qualitative. Qualitative sensitivity analysis is conducted for multicriteria discrete optimization problems with minisum, minimax and minimin partial criteria. The main results obtained here are necessary and sufficient conditions for different stability types of optimal solutions (or a set of optimal solutions) of the considered problems. Within the framework of quantitative direction various measures of solution stability are investigated. A formula for a quantitative characteristic called stability radius is obtained for the generalized equilibrium situation invariant to changes of game parameters in the case of the H¨older metric. Quality of the problem solution can also be described in terms of robustness analysis. In this work the concepts of accuracy and robustness tolerances are presented for a strategic game with a finite number of players where initial coefficients (costs) of linear payoff functions are subject to perturbations. Investigation of stability radius also aims to devise methods for its calculation. A new metaheuristic approach is derived for calculation of stability radius of an optimal solution to the shortest path problem. The main advantage of the developed method is that it can be potentially applicable for calculating stability radii of NP-hard problems. The last chapter of the thesis focuses on deriving innovative methods based on interactive optimization approach for solving multicriteria combinatorial optimization problems. The key idea of the proposed approach is to utilize a parameterized achievement scalarizing function for solution calculation and to direct interactive procedure by changing weighting coefficients of this function. In order to illustrate the introduced ideas a decision making process is simulated for three objective median location problem. The concepts, models, and ideas collected and analyzed in this thesis create a good and relevant grounds for developing more complicated and integrated models of postoptimal analysis and solving the most computationally challenging problems related to it.

Mechanistic population Models in Biology: Model Derivation and Application

In general, models of ecological systems can be broadly categorized as ’top-down’ or ’bottom-up’ models, based on the hierarchical level that the model processes are formulated on. The structure of a top-down, also known as phenomenological, population model can be interpreted in terms of population characteristics, but it typically lacks an interpretation on a more basic level. In contrast, bottom-up, also known as mechanistic, population models are derived from assumptions and processes on a more basic level, which allows interpretation of the model parameters in terms of individual behavior. Both approaches, phenomenological and mechanistic modelling, can have their advantages and disadvantages in different situations. However, mechanistically derived models might be better at capturing the properties of the system at hand, and thus give more accurate predictions. In particular, when models are used for evolutionary studies, mechanistic models are more appropriate, since natural selection takes place on the individual level, and in mechanistic models the direct connection between model parameters and individual properties has already been established. The purpose of this thesis is twofold. Firstly, a systematical way to derive mechanistic discrete-time population models is presented. The derivation is based on combining explicitly modelled, continuous processes on the individual level within a reproductive period with a discrete-time maturation process between reproductive periods. Secondly, as an example of how evolutionary studies can be carried out in mechanistic models, the evolution of the timing of reproduction is investigated. Thus, these two lines of research, derivation of mechanistic population models and evolutionary studies, are complementary to each other.

Methods for construction and analysis of computational models in systems biology : applications to the modelling of the heat shock response and the self-assembly of intermediate filaments

Systems biology is a new, emerging and rapidly developing, multidisciplinary research field that aims to study biochemical and biological systems from a holistic perspective, with the goal of providing a comprehensive, system- level understanding of cellular behaviour. In this way, it addresses one of the greatest challenges faced by contemporary biology, which is to compre- hend the function of complex biological systems. Systems biology combines various methods that originate from scientific disciplines such as molecu- lar biology, chemistry, engineering sciences, mathematics, computer science and systems theory. Systems biology, unlike “traditional” biology, focuses on high-level concepts such as: network, component, robustness, efficiency, control, regulation, hierarchical design, synchronization, concurrency, and many others. The very terminology of systems biology is “foreign” to “tra- ditional” biology, marks its drastic shift in the research paradigm and it indicates close linkage of systems biology to computer science. One of the basic tools utilized in systems biology is the mathematical modelling of life processes tightly linked to experimental practice. The stud- ies contained in this thesis revolve around a number of challenges commonly encountered in the computational modelling in systems biology. The re- search comprises of the development and application of a broad range of methods originating in the fields of computer science and mathematics for construction and analysis of computational models in systems biology. In particular, the performed research is setup in the context of two biolog- ical phenomena chosen as modelling case studies: 1) the eukaryotic heat shock response and 2) the in vitro self-assembly of intermediate filaments, one of the main constituents of the cytoskeleton. The range of presented approaches spans from heuristic, through numerical and statistical to ana- lytical methods applied in the effort to formally describe and analyse the two biological processes. We notice however, that although applied to cer- tain case studies, the presented methods are not limited to them and can be utilized in the analysis of other biological mechanisms as well as com- plex systems in general. The full range of developed and applied modelling techniques as well as model analysis methodologies constitutes a rich mod- elling framework. Moreover, the presentation of the developed methods, their application to the two case studies and the discussions concerning their potentials and limitations point to the difficulties and challenges one encounters in computational modelling of biological systems. The problems of model identifiability, model comparison, model refinement, model inte- gration and extension, choice of the proper modelling framework and level of abstraction, or the choice of the proper scope of the model run through this thesis.

The Future of Mobile Services and Wireless Applications in the Finnish Healthcare Sector

Työn päätavoitteena oli tutkia mobiilipalveluita ja langattomia sovelluksia Suomen terveydenhuollon sektorilla. Tutkimus havainnollistaa avain-alueita, missä mobiilipalvelut ja langattomat sovellukset voivat antaa lisäarvoa perinteiseen lääketieteen harjoittamiseen, ja selvittää, mitkä ovat tähän kehitykseen liittyvät suurimmat ongelmat ja uhkat sekä tutkimustuloksiin pohjautuvat mahdolliset palvelut ja sovellukset 5-10 vuoden kuluttua. Tutkimus oli luonteeltaan kvalitatiivinen ja tutkimuksen toteuttamiseen valittiin tulevaisuudentutkimus ja erityisesti yksi sen menetelmistä, delfoi-menetelmä. Tutkimuksen aineisto kerättiin kahdelta puolistrukturoidulta haastattelukierrokselta. Työn empiirinen osuus keskittyi kuvailemaan Suomen terveydenhuollon sektoria, siinä meneillään olevia projekteja sekä teknisiä esteitä. Lisäksi pyrittiin vastaamaan tutkimuksen pääkysymykseen. Tutkimustulokset osoittivat, että tärkeät alueet, joihin langaton kommunikaatio tulisi vaikuttamaan merkittävästi, ovat ensiaputoiminta, kroonisten potilaiden etämonitorointi, välineiden kehittäminen langattomaan kommunikaatioon kotihoidon parantamiseksi ja uusien toimintamallien luomiseksi sekä lääketieteellinen yhteistyö jakamalla terveydenhuoltoon liittyvät informaation lähteet. Työn tulosten perusteellavoitiin antaa myös muutamia toimenpide-ehdotuksia jatkotutkimuksia varten.

Development of e-Service tools for customer services and processes, Case: KONE Oyj Finland

Tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli selvittää miten kehittää yrityksen nykyistä e-palvelujärjestelmää, Internet -teknologiaan perustuvaa sähköisiä kommunikaatio- ja tiedonjakojärjestelmää, yrityksen business-to-business asiakkuuksien johtamisessa. Tavoitteena oli myös luoda ehdotukset uusista e-palvelusopimusmalleista. Tutkimuksen teoriaosuudessa pyrittiin kehittämään aikaisempiin tutkimuksiin, tietokirjallisuuteen ja asiantuntijoihin perustuva viitekehysmalli. Empiirisessä osassa tutkimuksen tavoitteisiin pyrittiin haastattelemalla yrityksen asiakkaita ja henkilöstöä, sekä tarkastelemalla asiakaskontaktien nykyistä tilaa ja kehittymistä. Näiden tietojen perusteella selvitettiin e-palvelun käyttäjien tarpeita, profiilia ja valmiuksia palvelun käyttöön sekä palvelun nykyistä houkuttelevuutta. Tutkimuksen teoriaosan lähdeaineistona käytettiin kirjallisuutta, artikkeleita ja tilastoja asiakashallinnasta sekä e-palveluiden, erityisesti Internet ja verkkopalveluiden markkinoinnista, nykytilasta sekä palveluiden kehittämisestä. Lisäksi tutkittiin kirjallisuutta arvoverkostoanalyysistä, asiakkaan arvosta, informaatioteknologiasta, palvelun laadusta ja asiakastyytyväisyydestä. Tutkimuksen empiirinen osa perustuu yrityksen henkilöstöltä sekä asiakkailta haastatteluissa kerättyihin tietoihin, yrityksen ennalta keräämiin materiaaleihin sekä Taloustutkimuksen keräämiin tietoihin. Tutkimuksessa käytettiin case -menetelmää, joka oli yhdistelmä sekä kvalitatiivista että kvantitatiivista tutkimusta. Casen tarkoituksena oli testata mallin paikkansapitävyyttä ja käyttökelpoisuutta, sekä selvittää onko olemassa vielä muita tekijöitä, jotka vaikuttavat asiakkaan saamaan arvoon. Kvalitatiivinen aineisto perustuu teemahaastattelumenetelmää soveltaen haastateltuihin asiakkaisiin ja yrityksen työntekijöihin. Kvantitatiivinen tutkimus perustuu Taloustutkimuksen tutkimukseen ja yrityksen asiakaskontakteista kerättyyn tietoon. Haastatteluiden perusteella e-palvelut nähtiin hyödyllisinä ja tulevaisuudessa erittäin tärkeinä. E-palvelut nähdään yhtenä tärkeänä kanavana, perinteisten kanavien rinnalla, tehostaa business-to-business -asiakkuuksien johtamista. Tutkimuksen antamien tulosten mukaan asiakkaiden palveluun liittyvän tieto-, taito-, tarpeellisuus- ja kiinnostavuustasojen vaihtelevaisuus osoittaa selvän tarpeen eritasoisille e-palvelupaketti ratkaisuille. Tuloksista muodostettu ratkaisuehdotus käsittää neljän eri e-palvelupaketin rakentamisen asiakkaiden eri tarpeita mukaillen.

Studying the recent situation of information and communication technology industry

Globaalinen liiketoimintaympäristö on muutoksessa. Uudet teknologiat muuttavat toimintaympäristöä ja talouden säännöt muuttuvat nopeasti. Uusia liiketoimintamalleja tarvitaan. Tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli analysoida tieto- ja viestintäteollisuuden (ICT-teollisuus) nykytilannetta strategisesta ja kilpailuanalyyttisestä näkökulmasta, sekä luoda kuva ICT-teollisuudesta ja sen suurista pelureista Euroopassa ja USA:ssa. Tutkimus analysoi viittä suurta ICT-alan yritystä. Tutkimus oli luonteeltaan sekä kvalitatiivinen että kvantitatiivinen. Yrityksiä analysoitiin käyttäen numeerista ja laadullista materiaalia. Tutkimus perustui kirjallisuuteen, artikkeleihin, tutkimusraportteihin, yritysten internet-kotisivuihin ja vuosikertomuksiin. Tutkimuksen tuloksena voitiin löytää sekä yhtäläisyyksiä että eroavaisuuksia yritysten liiketoimintamallien ja taloudellisen menestymisen väliltä.

Business models enhancing the diffusion of mobile Internet in emerging markets

Tämän tutkimuksen päätavoitteena oli selvittää, millaiset liiketoimintamallit soveltuvat mobiilin internet-liiketoiminnan harjoittamiseen kehittyvillä markkinoilla. Tavoitteena oli myös selvittää tekijöitä, jotka vaikuttavat mobiilin internetin diffuusioon. Tutkimus tehtiin käyttäen sekä kvantitatiivista että kvalitatiivista tutkimusmenetelmää. Klusterianalyysin avulla 40 Euroopan maasta muodostettiin sisäisesti homogeenisiä maaklustereita. Näiden klustereiden avulla oli mahdollista suunnitella erityyppisille markkinoille soveltuvat liiketoimintamallit. Haastatteluissa selvitettiin asiantuntijoiden näkemyksiä tekijöistä, jotka vaikuttavat mobiilin internetin diffuusioon kehittyvillä markkinoilla. Tutkimuksessa saatiin selville, että tärkeimmät liiketoimintamallin elementit kehittyvillä markkinoilla ovat hinnoittelu, arvotarjooma ja arvoverkko. Puutteellisen kiinteän verkon todettiin olevan yksi tärkeimmistä mobiilin internetin diffuusiota edistävistä tekijöistä kehittyvillä markkinoilla.

Sensory and Non-sensory Factors Behind the Liking and Choice of Healthy Food Products

A healthy and balanced diet can reduce health problems, such as overweight and metabolic syndrome. In general, people have a considerably good knowledge of what constitutes a healthy diet and how they could achieve it with their food choices. Besides, people argue that health is among their top five food choice motives. Nevertheless, the prevalence of overweight is increasing and other food choice motives, such as taste, seem to conflict with the health. Liking for food does not necessarily determine acceptance alone, thus several non-sensory factors, such as brand, country of origin and nutrition claim, can also influence. Moreover, consumers are individuals in how they prioritize sensory and nonsensory factors of foods, but e.g. increasing age, female gender and health concern have been connected to a more health-oriented dietary behaviour. To sum up, identifying different factors that can increase the liking and consumption of healthy food is essential in order to develop more attractive healthful food products. Adding vitamins, minerals, fibre or other ingredients to a food product can be used to enrich the nutritional quality of the products. However, this may be difficult in practice as regards the sensory quality and pleasantness of the foods. Generally, consumers are not willing to compromise on taste in food. On the other hand, consumers are very heterogeneous in their likings, and their personal values and attitudes may interact with preferences for specific sensory characteristics. The aims of this study were to investigate the effects of intrinsic product characteristics on sensory properties and hedonic responses; to determine the impact of few non-sensory factors; and to examine the interaction between sensory and non-sensory factors with consumers’ demographics, values and attitudes in liking of healthy model foods. The results showed that product composition influenced sensory quality and had an effect on hedonic responses. Adding flaxseed to bakery products showed a significant improvement in the nutritional quality without negative effects on sensory properties. On the other hand, the fortification of wellness beverages with vitamins and minerals may impart off-flavours. In general, sweetness of yoghurts, freshness of wellness beverages and low intensity of rye bread flavour appealed to consumers. Information about the domestic origin of yoghurts and claiming a specific function for wellness beverages enhanced liking. However, consumers who were more concerned about their health and considered natural content as an important food choice motive, rated sourer and less sweet yoghurts and wellness beverages as more pleasant. In addition, interest in health increased the consumption of rye breads and other whole grain breads among adolescents. The results showed that the optimal product quality in terms of intrinsic and extrinsic factors differs between individual consumers, and personal values and food choice motives can be connected to preferences for specific sensory characteristics of foods. This indicates that each food product needs to be considered in relation to its specific market niche, and to which segment of consumer will respond most positively to its characteristics.

Social capital and health : variations, associations and challenges

Although social capital and health have been extensively studied during the last decade, there are still open issues in current empirical research. These concern for instance the measurement of the concept in different contexts, as well as the association between different types of social capital and different dimensions of health. The present thesis addressed these questions. The general aim was to promote the understanding of social capital and health by investigating the oldest old and the two major language groups in Finland, Swedish- and Finnish-speakers. Another aim was to contribute to the discussion on methodological issues in social capital and health research. The present thesis investigated two empirical data sets, Umeå 85+ and Health 2000. The Umeå 85+ study was a cross-sectional study of 163 individuals aged 85, 90, and 95 or older, living in the municipality of Umeå, Sweden, in the year of 2000. The Health 2000 survey was a national study of 8,028 persons aged 30 or above carried out in Finland in 2000-2001. Different indicators of structural (e.g. social contacts) and cognitive (e.g. trust) social capital, as well as health indicators were used as variables in the analyses. The Umeå 85+ data set was analyzed with factor analysis, as well as univariate and multivariate analysis of variance. The Health 2000 data was analyzed with logistic regression techniques. The results showed that the Swedish-speakers in the Finnish data set Health 2000 had consistently higher prevalence of social capital compared to the Finnish-speakers even after controlling for central sociodemographic variables. The results further showed that even if the language group differences in health were small, the Swedishspeakers experienced in general better self-reported health compared with the Finnish-speakers. Common sociodemographic variables could not explain these observed differences in health. The results imply that social capital is often, but not always, associated with health. This was clearly seen in the Umeå 85+ data set where only one health indicator (depressive symptoms) was associated with structural social capital among the oldest old. The results based on the analysis of the Health 2000 survey demonstrated that the cognitive component of social capital was associated with self-rated health and psychological health rather than with participation in social activities and social contacts. In addition, social capital statistically reduced the health advantage especially for Swedish-speaking men, indicating that high prevalence of social capital may promote health. Finally, the present thesis also discussed the issue of methodological challenges faced with when analyzing social capital and health. It was suggested that certain components of social capital such as bonding and bridging social capital may be more relevant than structural and cognitive components when investigating social capital among the two language groups in Finland. The results concerning the oldest old indicated that the structural aspects of social capital probably reflect current living conditions, whereas cognitive social capital reflects attitudes and traits often acquired decades earlier. This is interpreted as an indication of the fact that structural and cognitive social capital are closely related yet empirically two distinctive concepts. Taken together, some components of social capital may be more relevant to study than others depending on which population group and age group is under study. The results also implied that the choice of cut-off point of dichotomization of selfrated health has an impact on the estimated effects of the explanatory variables. When the whole age interval, 35-64 years, was analyzed with logistic regression techniques the choice of cut-off point did not matter for the estimated effects of marital status and educational level. The results changed, however, when the age interval was divided into three shorter intervals. If self-rated health is explored using wide age intervals that do not account for age-dependent covariates there is a risk of drawing misleading conclusions. In conclusion, the results presented in the thesis suggest that the uneven distribution of social capital observed between the two language groups in Finland are of importance when trying to further understand health inequalities that exist between Swedish- and Finnish-speakers in Finland. Although social capital seemed to be relevant to the understanding of health among the oldest old, the meaning of social capital is probably different compared to a less vulnerable age group. This should be noticed in future empirical research. In the present thesis, it was shown that the relationship between social capital and health is complex and multidimensional. Different aspects of social capital seem to be important for different aspects of health. This reduces the possibility to generalize the results and to recommend general policy implementations in this area. An increased methodological awareness regarding social capital as well as health are called for in order to further understand the cfomplex association between them. However, based on the present data and findings social capital is associated with health. To understand individual health one must also consider social aspects of the individuals’ environment such as social capital.

Software for design of experiments and response modelling of cake ltration applications

Filtration is a widely used unit operation in chemical engineering. The huge variation in the properties of materials to be ltered makes the study of ltration a challenging task. One of the objectives of this thesis was to show that conventional ltration theories are di cult to use when the system to be modelled contains all of the stages and features that are present in a complete solid/liquid separation process. Furthermore, most of the ltration theories require experimental work to be performed in order to obtain critical parameters required by the theoretical models. Creating a good overall understanding of how the variables a ect the nal product in ltration is somewhat impossible on a purely theoretical basis. The complexity of solid/liquid separation processes require experimental work and when tests are needed, it is advisable to use experimental design techniques so that the goals can be achieved. The statistical design of experiments provides the necessary tools for recognising the e ects of variables. It also helps to perform experimental work more economically. Design of experiments is a prerequisite for creating empirical models that can describe how the measured response is related to the changes in the values of the variable. A software package was developed that provides a ltration practitioner with experimental designs and calculates the parameters for linear regression models, along with the graphical representation of the responses. The developed software consists of two software modules. These modules are LTDoE and LTRead. The LTDoE module is used to create experimental designs for di erent lter types. The lter types considered in the software are automatic vertical pressure lter, double-sided vertical pressure lter, horizontal membrane lter press, vacuum belt lter and ceramic capillary action disc lter. It is also possible to create experimental designs for those cases where the variables are totally user de ned, say for a customized ltration cycle or di erent piece of equipment. The LTRead-module is used to read the experimental data gathered from the experiments, to analyse the data and to create models for each of the measured responses. Introducing the structure of the software more in detail and showing some of the practical applications is the main part of this thesis. This approach to the study of cake ltration processes, as presented in this thesis, has been shown to have good practical value when making ltration tests.