Exchange rate volatility and the use of foreign currency derivatives: Impact of 2008 global financial crisis

This thesis examines the impact of foreign exchange rate volatility to the extent of use of foreign currency derivatives. Especially the focus is on the impacts of 2008 global financial crisis. The crisis increased risk level in the capital markets greatly. The change in the currency derivatives use is analyzed by comparing means between different periods and in addition, by linear regression that enables to analyze the explanatory power of the model. The research data consists of financial statements figures from fiscal years 2006-2011 published by firms operating in traditional Finnish industrial sectors. Volatilities of the chosen three currency pairs is calculated from the daily fixing rates of ECB. Based on the volatility the sample period is divided into three sub-periods. The results suggest that increased FX market volatility did not increase the use foreign currency derivatives. Furthermore, the increased foreign exchange rate volatility did not increase the power of linear regression model to estimate the use foreign currency derivatives compared to previous studies.

Development of Rouble Exchange Rate in Russia

This 45th volume deals with the development of the Russian rouble, which suffered a severe depreciation crisis in 1998. In the aftermath of this event, a strong investment boom started in Russia. The new devalued rouble exchange rate gave price competitiveness to local industry. In addition to that, increasing export prices of Russian oil and natural gas deliveries have contributed to economic growth lately. Amid this boom period, inflationary pressure has remained high. Price increases have been higher than in the EU, Russia’s main trading partner. However, rouble/euro exchange rate has remained nominally rather stable in the current decade. This means, that rouble appreciates against euro in real terms, which is weakening Russia’s international competitiveness.

Development of Rouble Exchange Rate in Russia

NORDIn julkaisu 45 käsittelee ruplan kehitystä. Vuonna 1998 rupla kärsi rajusta rahanarvon alenemisesta, minkä jälkiseuraksena investointi alkoi Venäjällä kasvaa. Uusi devalvoitu ruplan vaihtokurssi toi hintakilpailykykyä paikalliselle teollisuudelle. Tämän lisäksi Venäjän öljyn vientihintojen nousu ja maakaasujakelu ovat edesauttaneet taloudellista kasvua viime aikoina. Tämän noususuhdanteen vallitessa inflaatiopaine on pysynyt korkealla. Hinnannousut ovat olleet korkeampia kuinEU:ssa, Venäjän pääkauppakumppanilla. Kuitenkin, ruplan/euron vaihtokurssit ovat pysyneet nimellisesti melko vakaina tällä vuosikymmenellä. Tämä tarkoittaa, että todellisuudessa rupla vahvistuu euroa vastaan, mikä heikentää Venäjän kansainvälistä kilpailykykyä.

Determinants of credit default swap spread, the effect of the financial crisis in the us markets

The purpose of this study is to define what determinants affect the Credit spread. There are two theoretical frameworks to study this: structural models and reduced form models. Structural models indicate that the main determinants are company leverage, volatility and risk-free interest rate, and other market and firm-specific variables. The purpose is to determine which of these theoretical determinants can explain the CDS spread and also how these theoretical determinants are affected by the financial crisis in 2007. The data is collected from 30 companies in the US Markets, mainly S&P Large Cap. The sample time-frame is 31.1.2004 – 31.12.2009. Empirical studies indicate that structural models can explain the CDS spreads well. Also, there were significant differences between bear and bull markets. The main determinants explaining CDS spreads were leverage and volatility. The other determinants were significant, depending on the sample period. However, these other variables did not explain the spread consistently.

Development of Russian Ports in The Gulf of Finland

Russia has been one of the fastest developing economic areas in the world. Based on the GDP, the Russian economy grew evenly since the crisis in 1998 up till 2008. The growth in the gross domestic product has annually been some 5–10%. In 2007, the growth reached 8.1%, which is the highest figure after the 10% growth in 2000. Due to the growth of the economy and wage levels, purchasing power and consumption have been strongly increasing. The growing consumption has especially increased the imports of durables, such as passenger cars, domestic appliances and electronics. The Russian ports and infrastructure have not been able to satisfy the growing needs of exports and imports, which is why quite a large share of Russian foreign trade is going through third countries as transit transports. Finnish ports play a major role in transit transports to and from Russia. About 15% of the total value of Russian imports was transported through Finland in 2008. The economic recession that started in autumn 2008 and continues to date has had an impact on the economic development of Russia. The export income has decreased, mainly due to the reduced world market prices of energy products (oil and gas) and raw minerals. Investments have been postponed, getting credit is more difficult than before, and the ruble has weakened in relation to the euro and the dollar. The imports are decreasing remarkably, and are not forecast to reach the 2008 volumes even in 2012. The economic crisis is reflected in Finland's transit traffic. The volume of goods transported through Finland to and from Russia has decreased almost in the same proportion as the imports of goods to Russia. The biggest risk threatening the development of the Russian economy over long term is its dependence on export income from oil, gas, metals, minerals and forest products, as well as the trends of the world market prices of these products. Nevertheless, it is expected that the GDP of Russia will start to grow again in the forthcoming years due to the increased demand for energy products and raw minerals in the world. At the same time, it is obvious that the world market prices of these products will go up with the increasing demand. The increased income from exports will lead to a growth of imports, especially those of consumer goods, as the living standard of Russian citizens rises. The forecasts produced by the Russian Government concerning the economic development of Russia up till 2030 also indicate a shift in exported goods from raw materials to processed products, which together with energy products will become the main export goods of Russia. As a consequence, Russia may need export routes through third countries, which can be seen as an opportunity for increased transit transports through the ports of Finland. The ports competing with the ports of Finland for Russian foreign trade traffic are the Russian Baltic Sea ports and the ports of the Baltic countries. The strongest competitors are the Baltic Sea ports handling containers. On the Russian Baltic Sea, these ports include Saint Petersburg, Kaliningrad and, in the near future, the ports of Ust-Luga and possibly Vyborg. There are plans to develop Ust-Luga and Vyborg as modern container ports, which would become serious competitors to the Finnish ports. Russia is aiming to redirect as large a share as possible of foreign trade traffic to its own ports. The ports of Russia and the infrastructure associated with them are under constant development. On the other hand, the logistic capacity of Russia is not able to satisfy the continually growing needs of the Russian foreign trade. The capacity problem is emphasized by a structural incompatibility between the exports and imports in the Russian foreign trade. Russian exports can only use a small part of the containers brought in with imports. Problems are also caused by the difficult ice conditions and narrow waterways leading to the ports. It is predicted that Finland will maintain its position as a transit route for the Russian foreign trade, at least in the near future. The Russian foreign trade is increasing, and Russia will not be able to develop its ports in proportion with the increasing foreign trade. With the development of port capacity, cargo flows through the ports of Russia will grow. Structural changes in transit traffic are already visible. Firms are more and more relocating their production to Russia, for example as regards the assembly of cars and warehousing services. Simultaneously, an increasing part of transit cargoes are sent directly to Russia without unloading and reloading in Finland. New product groups have nevertheless been transported through Finland (textile products and tools), replacing the lost cargos. The global recession that started in autumn 2008 has influenced the volume of Russian imports and, consequently, the transit volumes of Finland, but the recession is not expected to be of long duration, and will thus only have a short-term impact on transit volumes. The Finnish infrastructure and services offered by the logistic chain should also be ready to react to the changes in imported product groups as well as to the change in Russian export products in the future. If the development plans of the Russian economy are realized, export products will be more refined, and the share of energy and raw material products will decrease. The other notable factor to be taken into consideration is the extremely fast-changing business environment in Russia. Operators in the logistic chain should be flexible enough to adapt to all kinds of changes to capitalise on business opportunities offered by the Russian foreign trade for the companies and for the transit volumes of Finnish ports, also in the future.

New Type Nuclear Reactors (NETNUC) 2008-2011 Final Report

This report summarizes the work done by a consortium consisting of Lappeenranta University of Technology, Aalto University and VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland in the New Type Nuclear Reactors (NETNUC) project during 2008–2011. The project was part of the Sustainable Energy (SusEn) research programme of the Academy of Finland. A wide range of generation IV nuclear technologies were studied during the project and the research consisted of multiple tasks. This report contains short articles summarizing the results of the individual tasks. In addition, the publications produced and the persons involved in the project are listed in the appendices.

Vihjepeli osana yhteisöllistä pelikokemusta. Juhana-herttuan Aikakapseli 2007-2008-projektin loppuraportti

Juhana-herttuan Aikakapseli on Turun yliopiston kulttuurituotannon ja maisemantutkimuksen laitoksen digitaalisen kulttuurin oppiaineen oppilastyönä toteuttama vihjepeli. Peli on suunniteltu ja tehty tilaustyönä Porin kaupungin 450-vuotisjuhlavuotta (2008) varten. Tämän raportin tarkoituksena on selvittää pelin suunnitteluprosessia ja sen käytännön toteutusta sekä luoda katsaus itse pelaamiseen, niin ylläpitäjien kuin pelaajienkin näkökulmasta. Aikakapseli-vihjepelin lisäksi johdantoluvussa esitellään lyhyesti digitaalisen kulttuurin näkökulmaa pelaamiseen, oppiaineen aiempia aihepiiriin liittyviä projekteja sekä muita juhlavuonna käynnissä olleita, hieman vastaavantyyppisiä hankkeita. Päähuomio tekstissä kiinnittyy erityisesti käyttäjäkokemuksiin. Suoranaisia tutkimuskysymyksiä ei esitetä tekstin raportinomaisen luonteen vuoksi, mutta aineistoa on lähestytty seuraavia kysymyksiä silmällä pitäen: - Miten peli suunniteltiin ja toteutettiin käytännössä? - Millaisia käyttäjäkokemuksia pelin pelaamiseen liittyi? - Miten satunnais-, hyöty- ja yhteisöpelaamisen käsitteet liittyivät peliin ja ilmenivät sen aikana? Loppuluvussa näitä kysymyksiä tarkastellaan erityisesti pelin lähtökohtien, sille asetettujen tavoitteiden, toiveiden ja tulevaisuuden suunnitelmien suhteen. Raportin laaja (tutkimus)aineisto koostuu muun muassa lehtileikkeistä,erilaisista tiedotteista, kyselyvastauksista, verkkosivujen tilastotiedoista, sadoista sähköpostiviesteistä sekä kurssin aikana tuotetusta materiaalista. Varsinaisen analysoinnin – eli käyttäjäkokemusten selvittämisen – kannalta hedelmällisimmiksi lähderyhmiksi voisi nostaa loppuvuodesta 2008 verkossa toteutetun pelaajakyselyn vastaukset, pelin verkkoalustan palauteviestit ja sähköpostiviestit. Väljänä metodisena viitekehyksenä tässä raportissa toimii aineistolähtöinen sisällönanalyysi, jolla käytännössä tarkoitetaan lähdedokumenttien systemaattista ja objektiivista arviointia.

Starttiraha ja yrittäjyys Uudellamaalla : Vuosina 2008-2011 Uudenmaan ELY-keskuksen alueella aloittaneiden yrittäjien kokemuksia starttirahajärjestelmästä

Starttiraha ja yrittäjyys Uudellamaalla on vuoden 2012 laadittu tutkimus, jonka toteuttamisesta vastasi Uudenmaan elinkeino-, liikenne- ja ympäristökeskuksen Yhteiset toiminnot -yksikkö. Tutkimuksen päämääränä oli tarkastella vuosien 2008-2011 aikana Uudellamaalla aloittaneiden yrittäjien kokemuksia starttirahajärjestelmästä sekä kartoittaa heidän yritystoimintansa tilannetta vuonna 2012. Lisäksi tutkimuksessa selvitettiin, millaisiksi starttirahaa saaneet yrittäjät arvioivat alueen työ- ja elinkeinosta saadut yrittäjäpalvelut. Tutkimus toteutettiin sähköpostikyselynä myönteisen starttirahapäätöksen Uudenmaan alueen työ- ja elinkeinotoimistoista vuosien 2008-2011 aikana saaneille henkilöille. Kyselyyn vastasi 728 starttiraha saanutta entistä ja nykyistä yrittäjää. Kyselyaineiston lisäksi tutkimuksessa käytettiin hyödyksi Työ- ja elinkeinoministeriön Työnvälitystilaston tarjoamaa tilastotietoa vuosien 2006-2011 ajalta. Tulokset osoittivat, että starttiraha koettiin erittäin hyödylliseksi järjestelmäksi yritystoiminnan alkuvaiheessa. Vastaajista 90 % koki starttirahan olleen erittäin tarpeellinen toimeentulonturva. Se oli mahdollistanut yrittäjille mm. hieman laajemman taloudellisen liikku-mavaran yritystoiminnan ensikuukausina. Starttirahan saamisella koettiin olleen myös suuri henkinen merkitys. Myönteinen starttiraha-päätös nähtiin yhteiskunnan symboliseksi tavaksi antaa hyväksyntä yritystoiminnalle. Järjestelmän heikkouksiksi kuitenkin laskettiin tuen alhainen määrä, suhteellisen lyhyt kesto sekä hakuprosessin raskaus. Kyselyyn vastanneet starttirahayrittäjät arvioivat yritystensä tulevaisuudennäkymät suhteellisen positiivisiksi. Yrityksensä liikevaihdon kasvua lähitulevaisuudessa ennakoi 62 % vastaajista. Starttirahayritykset eivät kuitenkaan olleet kovin suuria työllistäjiä. Usein yritys työllisti ainoastaan yrittäjän itsensä. TE-toimistojen henkilökunta ja heidän starttirahaan liittyvät palvelunsa saivat tutkimuksessa erittäin hyvän arvosanan. Vastaajat arvioivat jokaisen eritellyn asiakokonaisuuden arvosanan TE-toimistojen osalta joko kiitettäväksi tai hyväksi.

Seasonal variation in migratory body condition, corticosterone secretion, oxidative stress and biotransformation activity in barn swallows (Hirundo rustica L.)

I studied the associations between migration-related physiological regulation (corticosterone) and body condition of barn swallows (Hirundo rustica L.). An additional purpose was to determine whether oxidative stress and biotransformation activity vary seasonally. Since physiological regulation, biotransformation activity and the stress involved may be important factors for body condition during migration; they may have direct effects on migration success. This in turn may influence other important life history stages, such as breeding and moult. In the thesis I used barn swallow data of the Finnish Ringing Centre (1997–2009), consisting of all juveniles ringed in the nests and recaptured from night roosts later the same autumn. Before the autumn migration in Finland I also captured, ringed and sampled barn swallows from night roosts in 2003, 2006, 2007 and 2011. Samples preceding spring migration in South Africa were collected in 2007. Juvenile barn swallows started to migrate southward in mid-August (first broods). Second broods started their migration at a younger age and almost a month later than first broods (mid-September). Barn swallows increased body mass and accumulated fat for the autumn migration. In the course of the autumn they seemed to be able to prevent the loss of energy already accumulated, since the proportional overnight mass loss, fat loss and faecal production decreased. Surprisingly, corticosterone, the major energy-regulating hormone in birds, seemed not to be involved in the fuelling process. Previous studies with warblers, sparrows and shorebirds had shown that during migration, the baseline levels of corticosterone were elevated in order to facilitate fuelling. It is possible that for Finnish barn swallows the most important fuelling place is in southern Europe, since northern and eastern populations migrate via the Balkan Peninsula. However, the adrenocortical stress response of Finnish barn swallows in good body condition was lower than that of those in poor body condition. Birds clearly suppressed the response, probably to prevent the catabolic effects of excessive corticosterone levels; birds cannot afford to lose muscle mass before migration. South African barn swallows had high levels of baseline corticosterone, but this may have been associated with the high oxidative damage and biotransformation activity of those birds. Barn swallows in spring and summer had low biotransformation activity and intermediate oxidative stress, which was probably related to breeding. Autumn birds had low biotransformation activity and oxidative stress but high redox enzyme activities in some migration-related enzymes.