Time Varying Conditional Correlation Between Stock And Bond Returns: Evidence From CIVETS Nations

This thesis estimates long-run time variant conditional correlation between stock and bond returns of CIVETS (Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey, and South Africa) nations. Further, aims to analyse the presence of asymmetric volatility effect in both asset returns, as well as, obverses increment or decrement in conditional correlation during pre-crisis and crisis period, which lead to make a reliable diversification decision. The Constant Conditional Correlation (CCC) GARCH model of Bollerslev (1990), the Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) GARCH model (Engle 2002), and the Asymmetric Dynamic Conditional Correlation (ADCC) GARCH model of Cappiello, Engle, and Sheppard (2006) were implemented in the study. The analyses present strong evidence of time-varying conditional correlation in CIVETS markets, excluding Vietnam, during 2005-2013. In addition, negative innovation effects were found in both conditional variance and correlation of the asset returns. The results of this study recommend investors to include financial assets from these markets in portfolios, in order to obtain better stock-bond diversification benefits, especially during high volatility periods.

Russian and Eastern European Dynamic Conditional Correlations in light of the Russian crisis of 2014-2015

This thesis studies the impact of the latest Russian crisis on global markets, and especially Central and Eastern Europe. The results are compared to other shocks and crises over the last twenty years to see how significant they have been. The cointegration process of Central and Eastern European financial markets is also reviewed and updated. Using three separate conditional correlation GARCH models, the latest crisis is not found to have initiated similar surges in conditional correlations to previous crises over the last two decades. Market cointegration for Central and Eastern Europe is found to have stalled somewhat after initial correlation increases post EU accession.

Variance reduction properties of dynamic hedging models - empirical evidence from BRICS countries

This Master’s Thesis analyses the effectiveness of different hedging models on BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) countries. Hedging performance is examined by comparing two different dynamic hedging models to conventional OLS regression based model. The dynamic hedging models being employed are Constant Conditional Correlation (CCC) GARCH(1,1) and Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) GARCH(1,1) with Student’s t-distribution. In order to capture the period of both Great Moderation and the latest financial crisis, the sample period extends from 2003 to 2014. To determine whether dynamic models outperform the conventional one, the reduction of portfolio variance for in-sample data with contemporaneous hedge ratios is first determined and then the holding period of the portfolios is extended to one and two days. In addition, the accuracy of hedge ratio forecasts is examined on the basis of out-of-sample variance reduction. The results are mixed and suggest that dynamic hedging models may not provide enough benefits to justify harder estimation and daily portfolio adjustment. In this sense, the results are consistent with the existing literature.

Essays on pricing of risk and international linkage of Russian stock market

Last two decades have seen a rapid change in the global economic and financial situation; the economic conditions in many small and large underdeveloped countries started to improve and they became recognized as emerging markets. This led to growth in the amounts of global investments in these countries, partly spurred by expectations of higher returns, favorable risk-return opportunities, and better diversification alternatives to global investors. This process, however, has not been without problems and it has emphasized the need for more information on these markets. In particular, the liberalization of financial markets around the world, globalization of trade and companies, recent formation of economic and regional blocks, and the rapid development of underdeveloped countries during the last two decades have brought a major challenge to the financial world and researchers alike. This doctoral dissertation studies one of the largest emerging markets, namely Russia. The motivation why the Russian equity market is worth investigating includes, among other factors, its sheer size, rapid and robust economic growth since the turn of the millennium, future prospect for international investors, and a number of important major financial reforms implemented since the early 1990s. Another interesting feature of the Russian economy, which gives motivation to study Russian market, is Russia’s 1998 financial crisis, considered as one of the worst crisis in recent times, affecting both developed and developing economies. Therefore, special attention has been paid to Russia’s 1998 financial crisis throughout this dissertation. This thesis covers the period from the birth of the modern Russian financial markets to the present day, Special attention is given to the international linkage and the 1998 financial crisis. This study first identifies the risks associated with Russian market and then deals with their pricing issues. Finally some insights about portfolio construction within Russian market are presented. The first research paper of this dissertation considers the linkage of the Russian equity market to the world equity market by examining the international transmission of the Russia’s 1998 financial crisis utilizing the GARCH-BEKK model proposed by Engle and Kroner. Empirical results shows evidence of direct linkage between the Russian equity market and the world market both in regards of returns and volatility. However, the weakness of the linkage suggests that the Russian equity market was only partially integrated into the world market, even though the contagion can be clearly seen during the time of the crisis period. The second and the third paper, co-authored with Mika Vaihekoski, investigate whether global, local and currency risks are priced in the Russian stock market from a US investors’ point of view. Furthermore, the dynamics of these sources of risk are studied, i.e., whether the prices of the global and local risk factors are constant or time-varying over time. We utilize the multivariate GARCH-M framework of De Santis and Gérard (1998). Similar to them we find price of global market risk to be time-varying. Currency risk also found to be priced and highly time varying in the Russian market. Moreover, our results suggest that the Russian market is partially segmented and local risk is also priced in the market. The model also implies that the biggest impact on the US market risk premium is coming from the world risk component whereas the Russian risk premium is on average caused mostly by the local and currency components. The purpose of the fourth paper is to look at the relationship between the stock and the bond market of Russia. The objective is to examine whether the correlations between two classes of assets are time varying by using multivariate conditional volatility models. The Constant Conditional Correlation model by Bollerslev (1990), the Dynamic Conditional Correlation model by Engle (2002), and an asymmetric version of the Dynamic Conditional Correlation model by Cappiello et al. (2006) are used in the analysis. The empirical results do not support the assumption of constant conditional correlation and there was clear evidence of time varying correlations between the Russian stocks and bond market and both asset markets exhibit positive asymmetries. The implications of the results in this dissertation are useful for both companies and international investors who are interested in investing in Russia. Our results give useful insights to those involved in minimising or managing financial risk exposures, such as, portfolio managers, international investors, risk analysts and financial researchers. When portfolio managers aim to optimize the risk-return relationship, the results indicate that at least in the case of Russia, one should account for the local market as well as currency risk when calculating the key inputs for the optimization. In addition, the pricing of exchange rate risk implies that exchange rate exposure is partly non-diversifiable and investors are compensated for bearing the risk. Likewise, international transmission of stock market volatility can profoundly influence corporate capital budgeting decisions, investors’ investment decisions, and other business cycle variables. Finally, the weak integration of the Russian market and low correlations between Russian stock and bond market offers good opportunities to the international investors to diversify their portfolios.

Dynamic Hedging with Credit Default Swaps: Empirical Evidence from the European Monetary Union

This thesis investigates the effectiveness of time-varying hedging during the financial crisis of 2007 and the European Debt Crisis of 2010. In addition, the seven test economies are part of the European Monetary Union and these countries are in different economical states. Time-varying hedge ratio was constructed using conditional variances and correlations, which were created by using multivariate GARCH models. Here we have used three different underlying portfolios: national equity markets, government bond markets and the combination of these two. These underlying portfolios were hedged by using credit default swaps. Empirical part includes the in-sample and out-of-sample analysis, which are constructed by using constant and dynamic models. Moreover, almost in every case dynamic models outperform the constant ones in the determination of the hedge ratio. We could not find any statistically significant evidence to support the use of asymmetric dynamic conditional correlation model. In addition, our findings are in line with prior literature and support the use of time-varying hedge ratio. Finally, we found that in some cases credit default swaps are not suitable instruments for hedging and they act more as a speculative instrument.

Suomen taloussuhdanteiden kansainvälinen yhteisvaihtelu

Taloussuhdanteiden yhteisvaihtelun tutkimus on eräs taloustieteiden vanhimmista tutkimusaloista. Finanssikriisi ja euroalueen kohtaamat talousvaikeudet ovat kuitenkin nostaneet aiheen jälleen hyvin ajankohtaiseksi. Kuluneiden kahdenkymmenen vuoden aikana tutkimusalueesta on muodostunut erittäin laaja lukuisine näkökulmineen ja debatteineen. Tutkielman aiheena on Suomen taloussuhdanteiden kansainvälinen yhteisvaihtelu valittujen vertailumaiden kanssa. Vertailumaat ovat Ruotsi, Norja, Tanska, Saksa, Ranska, Iso-Britannia ja Yhdysvallat. Tutkielmaan valitut taloussuhdannetta kuvaavat muuttujat ovat reaalinen bruttokansantuote, yksityinen kokonaiskulutus ja teollisuustuotantoindeksi. Aineisto on kerätty Lappeenrannan tiedekirjaston Nelli-portaalin OECD iLibrary-tietokannasta ja se kattaa aikajakson 1960 Q1- 2014 Q4. Maakohtainen taloussuhdanne operationalisoidaan laskemalla ensimmäinen logaritminen differenssi, joka edustaa perinteistä reaalisuhdanneteoreettisen koulukunnan näkemystä taloussuhdanteesta. Tutkielman näkökulmaksi valitaan yhden maan näkökulma, joka on hieman harvinaisempi näkökulma verrattuna laajempiin alueellisiin näkökulmiin. Tutkimusmenetelminä käytetään Pearsonin korrelaatiokerrointa, Engle-Granger- sekä Johansenin yhteisintegroituvuustestejä ja VAR-GARCH-BEKK –mallilla laskettua dynaamista korrelaatiota, jotka lasketaan Suomen ja vertailumaiden välille maapareittain. Tuloksia tulkitaan suomalaisen vientiä vertailumaihin suunnittelevan yrityksen näkökulmasta. Tutkielman tulosten perusteella Engle-Grangerin menetelmällä laskettu samanaikainen yhteisintegroituvuus Suomen ja vertailumaiden välillä on epätodennäköistä. Kun yhteisintegroituvuuden annetaan riippua myös viiveistä, saadaan Johansenin menetelmällä yhteisintegroituvuus Suomen ja Yhdysvaltojen välille reaalisessa bruttokansantuotteessa, Suomen ja Saksan, Suomen ja Ranskan sekä Suomen ja Yhdysvaltojen välille yksityisessä kokonaiskulutuksessa sekä Suomen ja Norjan välille teollisuustuotantoindeksissä. Tulosten tulkintaa vaikeuttavat niiden malliriippuvuus ja informaatiokriteerien toisistaan poikkeavat mallisuositukset, joten yhteisintegroituvuus on mahdollinen myös muiden maaparien kohdalla. Dynaamisten korrelaatiokuvaajien perusteella maaparien välisen yhteisvaihtelun voimakkuus muuttuu ajan mukana. Finanssikriisin aikana kokonaistuotannossa on havaittavissa korkeampi korrelaatio, mutta korrelaatio palaa sen jälkeen perustasolleen. Kokonaiskulutuksen korrelaatio on kokonaistuotantoa alhaisempi ja pitemmissä aikajaksoissa vaihtelevaa.

Time-varying Risk Premiums and Conditional Market Risk: Empirical Evidence from European Stock Markets

This study investigates the relationship between the time-varying risk premiums and conditional market risk in the stock markets of the ten member countries of Economy and Monetary Union. Second, it examines whether the conditional second moments change over time and are there asymmetric effects in the conditional covariance matrix. Third, it analyzes the possible effects of the chosen testing framework. Empirical analysis is conducted using asymmetric univariate and multivariate GARCH-in-mean models and assuming three different degrees of market integration. For a daily sample period from 1999 to 2007, the study shows that the time-varying market risk alone is not enough to explain the dynamics of risk premiums and indications are found that the market risk is detected only when its price is allowed to change over time. Also asymmetric effects in the conditional covariance matrix, which is found to be time-varying, are clearly present and should be recognized in empirical asset pricing analyses.

Testing the Random Walk Hypothesis on the Baltic Stock Markets

The purpose of the thesis is to analyze whether the returns of general stock market indices of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania follow the random walk hypothesis (RWH), and in addition, whether they are consistent with the weak-form efficiency criterion. Also the existence of the day-of-the-week anomaly is examined in the same regional markets. The data consists of daily closing quotes of the OMX Tallinn, Riga and Vilnius total return indices for the sample period from January 3, 2000 to August 28, 2009. Moreover, the full sample period is also divided into two sub-periods. The RWH is tested by applying three quantitative methods (i.e. the Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test, serial correlation test and non-parametric runs test). Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression with dummy variables is employed to detect the day-of-the-week anomalies. The random walk hypothesis (RWH) is rejected in the Estonian and Lithuanian stock markets. The Latvian stock market exhibits more efficient behaviour, although some evidence of inefficiency is also found, mostly during the first sub-period from 2000 to 2004. Day-of-the-week anomalies are detected on every stock market examined, though no longer during the later sub-period.

Spatial and Spectral Separability of Grasslands in the inner Turku Archipelago using Landsat Thematic Mapper Satellite Imagery

The present study investigates the spatial and spectral discrimination potential for grassland patches in the inner Turku Archipelago using Landsat Thematic Mapper satellite imagery. The spatial discrimination potential was computed through overlay analysis using official grassland parcel data and a hypothetical 30 m resolution satellite image capturing the site. It found that Landsat TM imagery’s ability to retrieve pure or near-pure pixels (90% purity or more) from grassland patches smaller than 1 hectare was limited to 13% success, compared to 52% success when upscaling the resolution to 10 x 10 m pixel size. Additionally, the perimeter/area patch metric is proposed as a predictor for the suitability of the spatial resolution of input imagery. Regression analysis showed that there is a strong negative correlation between a patch’s perimeter/area ratio and its pure pixel potential. The study goes on to characterise the spectral response and discrimination potential for the five main grassland types occurring in the study area: recreational grassland, traditional pasture, modern pasture, fodder production grassland and overgrown grassland. This was done through the construction of spectral response curves, a coincident spectral plot and a contingency matrix as well as by calculating the transformed divergence for the spectral signatures, all based on training samples from the TM imagery. Substantial differences in spectral discrimination potential between imagery from the beginning of the growing season and the middle of summer were found. This is because the spectral responses for these five grassland types converge as the peak of the growing season draws nearer. Recreational grassland shows a consistent discrimination advantage over other grassland types, whereas modern pasture is most easily confused. Traditional pasture land, perhaps the most biologically valuable grassland type, can be spectrally discriminated from other grassland types with satisfactory success rates provided early growing season imagery is used.

Tilinpäätösinformaation läpinäkyvyyden muutokset pohjoismaissa IFRS-standardeihin siirtymisen jälkeen

EU:n alueella julkisesti listatut yritykset siirtyivät käyttämään konsernitilinpäätöksissään IFRS standardeja vuodesta 2005 alkaen. Yhtenä syynä standardien käyttöönotolle oli lisääntynyt tarve tilinpäätösinformaation läpinäkyvyydelle. Tässä tutkimuksessa tutkitaan, onko listattujen pohjoismaisten yritysten tilinpäätösinformaation läpinäkyvyys parantunut IFRS standardeihin siirtymisen jälkeen. Tilinpäätösinformaation läpinäkyvyys koostuu oikea-aikaisuudesta ja tuloslaskelmapohjaisesta konservatiivisuudesta, jotka analysoidaan kvantitatiivisesti. Tilinpäätösinformaation läpinäkyvyys on parantunut, jos oikea-aikaisuus on kasvanut ja tuloslaskelmapohjainen konservatiivisuus madaltunut. Näin ei kuitenkaan ole käynyt analysoitavien ensimmäisten neljän vuoden aikana, eikä tasepohjaisen konservatiivisuuden todeta vaikuttaneen tuloksiin konservatiivisuuksien mittareiden negatiivisen korrelaation kautta. Tuloksiin voi vaikuttaa standardien käyttöönoton alkuvaikeudet sekä euroaluetta ja Yhdysvaltoja kohdannut rahoituskriisi tarkastelujakson loppu puolella.

The role of van der Waals interactions in the case of H2 adsorption on ruthenium (0001) surface

Computational material science with the Density Functional Theory (DFT) has recently gained a method for describing, for the first time the non local bonding i.e., van der Waals (vdW) bonding. The newly proposed van der Waals-Density Functional (vdW-DF) is employed here to address the role of non local interactions in the case of H2 adsorption on Ru(0001) surface. The later vdW-DF2 implementation with the DFT code VASP (Vienna Ab-initio Simulation Package) is used in this study. The motivation for studying H2 adsorption on ruthenium surface arose from the interest to hydrogenation processes. Potential energy surface (PES) plots are created for adsorption sites top, bridge, fcc and hcp, employing the vdW-DF2 functional. The vdW-DF yields 0.1 eV - 0.2 eV higher barriers for the dissociation of the H2 molecule; the vdW-DF seems to bind the H2 molecule more tightly together. Furthermore, at the top site, which is found to be the most reactive, the vdW functional suggests no entrance barrier or in any case smaller than 0.05 eV, whereas the corresponding calculation without the vdW-DF does. Ruthenium and H2 are found to have the opposite behaviors with the vdW-DF; Ru lattice constants are overestimated while H2 bond length is shorter. Also evaluation of the CPU time demand of the vdW-DF2 is done from the PES data. From top to fcc sites the vdW-DF computational time demand is larger by 4.77 % to 20.09 %, while at the hcp site it is slightly smaller. Also the behavior of a few exchange correlation functionals is investigated along addressing the role of vdW-DF. Behavior of the different functionals is not consistent between the Ru lattice constants and H2 bond lengths. It is thus difficult to determine the quality of a particular exchange correlation functional by comparing equilibrium separations of the different elements. By comparing PESs it would be computationally highly consuming.

Risk-return trade-off and autocorrelation

A trade-off between return and risk plays a central role in financial economics. The intertemporal capital asset pricing model (ICAPM) proposed by Merton (1973) provides a neoclassical theory for expected returns on risky assets. The model assumes that risk-averse investors (seeking to maximize their expected utility of lifetime consumption) demand compensation for bearing systematic market risk and the risk of unfavorable shifts in the investment opportunity set. Although the ICAPM postulates a positive relation between the conditional expected market return and its conditional variance, the empirical evidence on the sign of the risk-return trade-off is conflicting. In contrast, autocorrelation in stock returns is one of the most consistent and robust findings in empirical finance. While autocorrelation is often interpreted as a violation of market efficiency, it can also reflect factors such as market microstructure or time-varying risk premia. This doctoral thesis investigates a relation between the mixed risk-return trade-off results and autocorrelation in stock returns. The results suggest that, in the case of the US stock market, the relative contribution of the risk-return trade-off and autocorrelation in explaining the aggregate return fluctuates with volatility. This effect is then shown to be even more pronounced in the case of emerging stock markets. During high-volatility periods, expected returns can be described using rational (intertemporal) investors acting to maximize their expected utility. During lowvolatility periods, market-wide persistence in returns increases, leading to a failure of traditional equilibrium-model descriptions for expected returns. Consistent with this finding, traditional models yield conflicting evidence concerning the sign of the risk-return trade-off. The changing relevance of the risk-return trade-off and autocorrelation can be explained by heterogeneous agents or, more generally, by the inadequacy of the neoclassical view on asset pricing with unboundedly rational investors and perfect market efficiency. In the latter case, the empirical results imply that the neoclassical view is valid only under certain market conditions. This offers an economic explanation as to why it has been so difficult to detect a positive tradeoff between the conditional mean and variance of the aggregate stock return. The results highlight the importance, especially in the case of emerging stock markets, of noting both the risk-return trade-off and autocorrelation in applications that require estimates for expected returns.

Surface studies of limestones and dolostones : characterisation using various techniques and batch dissolution experiments with hydrochloric acid solutions

In this thesis, stepwise titration with hydrochloric acid was used to obtain chemical reactivities and dissolution rates of ground limestones and dolostones of varying geological backgrounds (sedimentary, metamorphic or magmatic). Two different ways of conducting the calculations were used: 1) a first order mathematical model was used to calculate extrapolated initial reactivities (and dissolution rates) at pH 4, and 2) a second order mathematical model was used to acquire integrated mean specific chemical reaction constants (and dissolution rates) at pH 5. The calculations of the reactivities and dissolution rates were based on rate of change of pH and particle size distributions of the sample powders obtained by laser diffraction. The initial dissolution rates at pH 4 were repeatedly higher than previously reported literature values, whereas the dissolution rates at pH 5 were consistent with former observations. Reactivities and dissolution rates varied substantially for dolostones, whereas for limestones and calcareous rocks, the variation can be primarily explained by relatively large sample standard deviations. A list of the dolostone samples in a decreasing order of initial reactivity at pH 4 is: 1) metamorphic dolostones with calcite/dolomite ratio higher than about 6% 2) sedimentary dolostones without calcite 3) metamorphic dolostones with calcite/dolomite ratio lower than about 6% The reactivities and dissolution rates were accompanied by a wide range of experimental techniques to characterise the samples, to reveal how different rocks changed during the dissolution process, and to find out which factors had an influence on their chemical reactivities. An emphasis was put on chemical and morphological changes taking place at the surfaces of the particles via X-ray Photoelectron Spectroscopy (XPS) and Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM). Supporting chemical information was obtained with X-Ray Fluorescence (XRF) measurements of the samples, and Inductively Coupled Plasma-Mass Spectrometry (ICP-MS) and Inductively Coupled Plasma-Optical Emission Spectrometry (ICP-OES) measurements of the solutions used in the reactivity experiments. Information on mineral (modal) compositions and their occurrence was provided by X-Ray Diffraction (XRD), Energy Dispersive X-ray analysis (EDX) and studying thin sections with a petrographic microscope. BET (Brunauer, Emmet, Teller) surface areas were determined from nitrogen physisorption data. Factors increasing chemical reactivity of dolostones and calcareous rocks were found to be sedimentary origin, higher calcite concentration and smaller quartz concentration. Also, it is assumed that finer grain size and larger BET surface areas increase the reactivity although no certain correlation was found in this thesis. Atomic concentrations did not correlate with the reactivities. Sedimentary dolostones, unlike metamorphic ones, were found to have porous surface structures after dissolution. In addition, conventional (XPS) and synchrotron based (HRXPS) X-ray Photoelectron Spectroscopy were used to study bonding environments on calcite and dolomite surfaces. Both samples are insulators, which is why neutralisation measures such as electron flood gun and a conductive mask were used. Surface core level shifts of 0.7 ± 0.1 eV for Ca 2p spectrum of calcite and 0.75 ± 0.05 eV for Mg 2p and Ca 3s spectra of dolomite were obtained. Some satellite features of Ca 2p, C 1s and O 1s spectra have been suggested to be bulk plasmons. The origin of carbide bonds was suggested to be beam assisted interaction with hydrocarbons found on the surface. The results presented in this thesis are of particular importance for choosing raw materials for wet Flue Gas Desulphurisation (FGD) and construction industry. Wet FGD benefits from high reactivity, whereas construction industry can take advantage of slow reactivity of carbonate rocks often used in the facades of fine buildings. Information on chemical bonding environments may help to create more accurate models for water-rock interactions of carbonates.