Predicting Market Crashes: An Examination of the Performance of Macroeconomic Indicators and Technical Analysis

The purpose of this study is to examine macroeconomic indicators‟ and technical analysis‟ ability to signal market crashes. Indicators examined were Yield Spread, The Purchasing Managers Index and the Consumer Confidence Index. Technical Analysis indicators were moving average, Moving Average Convergence-Divergence and Relative Strength Index. We studied if commonly used macroeconomic indicators can be used as a warning system for a stock market crashes as well. The hypothesis is that the signals of recession can be used as signals of stock market crash and that way a basis for a hedging strategy. The data is collected from the U.S. markets from the years 1983-2010. Empirical studies show that macroeconomic indicators have been able to explain the future GDP development in the U.S. in research period and they were statistically significant. A hedging strategy that combined the signals of yield spread and Consumer Confidence Index gave most useful results as a basis of a hedging strategy in selected time period. It was able to outperform buy-and-hold strategy as well as all of the technical indicator based hedging strategies.

Identification of research trends in the field of separation processes. Application of epidemiological model, citation analysis, text mining, and technical analysis of the financial markets

Choice of industrial development options and the relevant allocation of the research funds become more and more difficult because of the increasing R&D costs and pressure for shorter development period. Forecast of the research progress is based on the analysis of the publications activity in the field of interest as well as on the dynamics of its change. Moreover, allocation of funds is hindered by exponential growth in the number of publications and patents. Thematic clusters become more and more difficult to identify, and their evolution hard to follow. The existing approaches of research field structuring and identification of its development are very limited. They do not identify the thematic clusters with adequate precision while the identified trends are often ambiguous. Therefore, there is a clear need to develop methods and tools, which are able to identify developing fields of research. The main objective of this Thesis is to develop tools and methods helping in the identification of the promising research topics in the field of separation processes. Two structuring methods as well as three approaches for identification of the development trends have been proposed. The proposed methods have been applied to the analysis of the research on distillation and filtration. The results show that the developed methods are universal and could be used to study of the various fields of research. The identified thematic clusters and the forecasted trends of their development have been confirmed in almost all tested cases. It proves the universality of the proposed methods. The results allow for identification of the fast-growing scientific fields as well as the topics characterized by stagnant or diminishing research activity.

Container logistic innovations in forest-energy sector: Markets, future service concepts and technical improvements

The report presents the results of the commercialization project called the Container logistic services for forest bioenergy. The project promotes new business that is emerging around overall container logistic services in the bioenergy sector. The results assess the European markets of the container logistics for biomass, enablers for new business creation and required service bundles for the concept. We also demonstrate the customer value of the container logistic services for different market segments. The concept analysis is based on concept mapping, quality function deployment process (QFD) and business network analysis. The business network analysis assesses key shareholders and their mutual connections. The performance of the roadside chipping chain is analysed by the logistic cost simulation, RFID system demonstration and freezing tests. The EU has set the renewable energy target to 20 % in 2020 of which Biomass could account for two-thirds. In the Europe, the production of wood fuels was 132.9 million solid-m3 in 2012 and production of wood chips and particles was 69.0 million solidm3. The wood-based chips and particle flows are suitable for container transportation providing market of 180.6 million loose- m3 which mean 4.5 million container loads per year. The intermodal logistics of trucks and trains are promising for the composite containers because the biomass does not freeze onto the inner surfaces in the unloading situations. The overall service concept includes several packages: container rental, container maintenance, terminal services, RFID-tracking service, and simulation and ERP-integration service. The container rental and maintenance would provide transportation entrepreneurs a way to increase the capacity without high investment costs. The RFID-concept would lead to better work planning improving profitability throughout the logistic chain and simulation supports fuel supply optimization.

Social Solidarity and Fear of Crime - Community and Individual Approaches in Responses to Mass Violence after School Shootings

The aim of this study was to examine community and individual approaches in responses to mass violence after the school shooting incidents in Jokela (November 2007) and Kauhajoki (September 2008), Finland. In considering the community approach, responses to any shocking criminal event may have integrative, as well as disintegrative effects, within the neighborhood. The integration perspective argues that a heinous criminal event within one’s community is a matter of offence to collectively held feelings and beliefs, and increases perceived solidarity; whereas the disintegration perspective suggests that a criminal event weakens the social fabric of community life by increasing fear of crime and mistrust among locals. In considering the individual approach, socio-demographic factors, such as one’s gender, are typically significant indicators, which explain variation in fear of crime. Beyond this, people are not equally exposed to violent crime and therefore prior victimization and event related experiences may further explain why people differ in their sensitivity to risk from mass violence. Finally, factors related to subjective mental health, such as depressed mood, are also likely to moderate individual differences in responses to mass violence. This study is based on the correlational design of four independent cross-sectional postal surveys. The sampling frames (N=700) for the surveys were the Finnish speaking adult population aged 18–74-years. The first mail survey in Jokela (n=330) was conducted between May and June 2008, approximately six months from the shooting incident at the local high-school. The second Jokela survey (n=278) was conducted in May–June of 2009, 18 months removed from the incident. The first survey in Kauhajoki (n=319) was collected six months after the incident at the local University of Applied Sciences, March– April 2009, and the second (n=339) in March–April 2010, approximately 18 months after the event. Linear and ordinal regression and path analysis are used as methods of analyses. The school shootings in Jokela and Kauhajoki were extremely disturbing events, which deeply affected the communities involved. However, based on the results collected, community responses to mass violence between the two localities were different. An increase in social solidarity appears to apply in the case of the Jokela community, but not in the case of the Kauhajoki community. Thus a criminal event does not necessarily impact the wider community. Every empirical finding is most likely related to different contextual and event-specific factors. Beyond this, community responses to mass violence in Jokela also indicated that the incident was related to a more general sense of insecurity and was also associating with perceived community deterioration and further suggests that responses to mass violence may have both integrating and disintegrating effects. Moreover, community responses to mass violence should also be examined in relation to broader social anxieties and as a proxy for generalized insecurity. Community response is an emotive process and incident related feelings are perhaps projected onto other identifiable concerns. However, this may open the door for social errors and, despite integrative effects, this may also have negative consequences within the neighborhood. The individual approach suggests that women are more fearful than men when a threat refers to violent crime. Young women (aged 18–34) were the most worried age and gender group as concerns perception of threat from mass violence at schools compared to young men (aged 18–34), who were also the least worried age and gender group when compared to older men. It was also found that concerns about mass violence were stronger among respondents with the lowest level of monthly household income compared to financially better-off respondents. Perhaps more importantly, responses to mass violence were affected by the emotional proximity to the event; and worry about the recurrence of school shootings was stronger among respondents who either were a parent of a school-aged child, or knew a victim. Finally, results indicate that psychological wellbeing is an important individual level factor. Respondents who expressed depressed mood consistently expressed their concerns about mass violence and community deterioration. Systematic assessments of the impact of school shooting events on communities are therefore needed. This requires the consolidation of community and individual approaches. Comparative study designs would further benefit from international collaboration across disciplines. Extreme school violence has also become a national concern and deeper understanding of crime related anxieties in contemporary Finland also requires community-based surveys.